Marquis & Hairston Traded

The Nationals traded away Jason Marquis today and appear to have gotten more value in return than I expected would be possible.

Dumping Marquis is a no-brainer. He's a free agent at the end of the season, and he hasn't done enough to return any draft picks for the Nationals if they lose him at the end of the season. So literally the guy is worth nothing to the tail-spinning Nationals. Plus, he's got over $2 million more dollars coming to him.

Worse yet, he's blocking prospects. Brad Peacock is definitely ready for a look against big league competition but someone had to go to make room. (Tom Milone is getting lots of love from Davey Johnson too, but I'm less convinced on him.)

My biggest question about trading Marquis is if there's anyone out there who would want him--or would be willing to give anything up and take the remainder of his contract anyway. We're talking about a pitcher who has a 3.95 ERA, which sounds good, but is actually a tick worse than the average performance by starting pitchers in the NL this season.

But Arizona came calling, and in return the Nationals got Zack Walters. He's a 21-year-old infielder hitting .302 / .377 / .485 in his second season of pro ball. Baseball America mentioned a comp to Geoff Blum in the 2011 Prospect Handbook, where Walters was ranked #29, though his stock has risen and he should rank higher with the Nationals next time around. He's a shortstop now but projects better as a utility man best suited for second base or third. He's also a switch hitter, which adds to his stock as a future bench option.

Overall, the Nationals would have been better off just dumping Marquis and his contract for nothing, and they did well to get anything of potential major league value here.

The Jerry Hairston trade is a similar story. The Brewers were desperate to get a second baseman after Rickie Weeks got hurt (and they've been hurting for anyone, anyone at all to play shortstop and third base).

Rizzo spotted the opportunity to get the Brewers to overpay. You might never hear of Erik Komatsu again, but he's got a chance to have a career as a fourth or fifth outfielder. He doesn't have much power, but he's hitting got a .393 OBP in AA, which is impressive, and he's 23 years old, so it's not like he's old for the league

If you're a Brewers fan, you've gotta be pulling your hair out that you have to trade any kind of prospect for a guy like Jerry Hairston. It's absolutely embarrassing not to have someone you can call up or plug in to do what he does. But Rizzo spotted the need and got something for basically nothing.

Danny Espinosa, Shortstop

When Davey Johnson was hired, he made comments about how important it is to use the rest of the season to find out what the team has going into next season. That's in part why Roger Bernadina has been getting so much playing time--to make sure that the team knew whether he could be the starter next year, or more likely not.

In that spirit, it's time to find out if Danny Espinosa can be an everyday shortstop. Because we know that, at least at this point, Ian Desmond cannot.

First let's focus on the good news. Espinosa was seen as a good prospect going into the season--a guy who someday would become a solid regular in the majors even. Well, he's already become that, and at age 24 he now has a chance--not a likelihood, but a chance--to become a perennial first division starter.

He's slumping a bit lately, but his power has exceeded scouts' expectations, and his approach has continued to mature. He's also stealing bases with an 86% success rate and doesn't make errors in the field (tonight was just his eighth). He's been a fantastic second basemen, and he's shown plenty of arm to make the transition to shortstop.

Long-term, Espinosa is more valuable to the Nationals as a shortstop for the simple reason that it's harder to find offensive-minded shortstops than second basemen. Also, you gotta figure that Anthony Rendon's fastest path to the majors is to transition to second, if not just hang around and wait for Ryan Zimmerman to hit free agency.

Regardless, the Nationals need to know going into next season whether they need to add a shortstop in the off-season or if the Espinosa is the answer. They have 58 games to figure that out, and time's a-wastin'.

That leaves the question of what to do with Desmond. He's been prominent in trade talks, which I guess makes sense. If someone sees Desmond as a 25-year-old starting shortstop and wants to give up that kind of value, then fine. But there's no reason to get frustrated and dump him.

Desmond was red-hot in his September call-up two years ago, and has done nothing but get worse and worse. Pitchers have adjusted, and Desmond hasn't responded. He's not getting in very many hitters' counts, and he isn't making nearly enough hard contact. But the tools are still there. He could still have a good career as a utility man. He could also improve his plate discipline, allowing his power to reemerge.

Teams way too often get tired of their own prospects when their development stalls. The Nationals should try to avoid that mistake, send Desmond down to Syracuse, start working him at second, third, and the corner outfield spots, and let him hit his way back.

But at the very least, Desmond shouldn't be blocking Danny Espinosa from proving himself as the team's true shortstop of the future.

The Center Fielders Who Got Away

All the talk around the Nationals these days is how they are "feverishly" looking for a long-term answer in center field.

Over the past eight months, two of the most talented young center fielders in baseball have changed teams. Both are 24 years old. One is under team control for the next three and a half years, and the other for four and a half. And both were traded for at most 60 cents on the dollar.

Still, despite the fact that the Nationals are "feverishly" looking for a long-term answer in center field (and have been for pretty much time immemorial, aside from brief, ill-fated love affair with Nyjer Morgan a couple years ago), neither Colby Rasmus nor Cameron Maybin are on the Washington Nationals.

Why? It can't be said that they didn't have the inventory to make deals. Especially in Maybin's case, anyone could have had him. He went to San Diego in exchange for a couple middle relievers. Maybin's been around for a long time, but he's still at an age that a lot of very good major leaguers are just getting their first taste of the majors. He hadn't put it together yet, but he's full of tools and the Marlins gave up on him way too soon.

Rasmus may have been a little tougher for the Nationals to pull off. Let's face it, Alex Anthopolous is proving himself to be one of the very best GMs in the game, and just being able to sniff out the opportunity to swing the complicated three-way deal that he made is impressive.

But even setting aside that part, do the Nationals have the pieces to make a deal like Anthopolous did? Maybe not. He gave up Zach Stewart, Jason Frasor, Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski, and Corey Patterson. Most teams including the Nationals could match the last four names on the list. Probably it would have cost Tyler Clippard and someone else out of the pen, but that's ok.

Stewart would have been the chip the Nationals would have had a hard time matching--a 24-year-old pitching prospect who some think could be a #2 but others think might end up in the bullpen. The Nationals probably would have had to offer A.J. Cole or Brad Peacock, and it's possible Williams would have preferred Stewart anyway, since he's closer than Cole and has better stuff than Peacock.

Still, everyone and their father knew that Tony LaRussa wanted Rasmus out of St. Louis, and that there was a deal to be made. Bottom line, Anthopolous made the deal, and Rizzo didn't.

The conventional wisdom is that the Nationals are hot on B.J. Upton, and maybe that's the deal that will get made. Upton is probably the most talented of them all, but he's also a free agent after next season and there are lots of questions about his work ethic.

From what I've read, it seems like the Nationals are offering something like Clippard, Ian Desmond, and maybe someone else, and the Rays are demanding at least Drew Storen. If that's true, I'm not sure it's a deal I want to make. I much rather would have gotten Cameron Maybin on the dirt-cheap.

We'll see what happens when the music stops, but right now it's hard not to look at Toronto and San Diego and wonder why we couldn't do what they did.

• Oh and I almost forgot. Denard Span for Drew Storen? No thanks. Span's a fine player, but you don't trade away cost-controlled assets like Storen for guys like this. You should be able to find them easier ways.

Nats Get a DH

The Nationals traded two not-prospects for Jonny Gomes in a Bowden-esque junk-for-junk deal that fans usually like because they get a guy they've heard of for a couple guys they haven't.

Gomes probably becomes the short-side platoon partner for Laynce Nix, which I guess is fine. Neither guy can hit same-handed pitching, and presumably Davey Johnson will do a good job optimizing. But Gomes is a dreadful fielder and 30 years old. And he's earning $1.75 million, so as pointless moves go, it's not a cheap one, unless the Reds are picking up the contract for some reason.

Kilgore says Gomes is likely to be a type-B free agent, which I haven't checked but seems probably right. That means that this could be an example of the Nationals more or less buying a second or third round draft pick, which would be fine. Then again, they'd have to tender Gomes a contract if they want the pick, and if I was Gomes I'd accept arbitration in a heartbeat. I wouldn't expect him to get what he's getting now as a free agent, and players don't usually take pay cuts from arbitrators.

There's nothing much to fret about in what the Nationals gave up. Bill Rhinehart was a fringey prospect a few years ago, but then he regressed badly and more or less missed his window. He's had a nice season this year at AA, but he's 26 playing against much younger competition. The offensive standards for first basemen are so high that he's really not a guy with any kind of future in MLB anymore.

Christopher Manno is a 22-year-old lefty reliever drafted by the Nationals in the 26th round out of high school Duke in 2010. He's been striking out hitters by the bushel in A ball, but he's never been on John Sickels' top 20 or BA's top 31. That's all I know about him. Minor league relief pitcher, whatever.

Mostly this is the kind of deal that annoys me, because it suggests that Rizzo is focused on the wrong things. But probably it won't matter, and at least we don't have to hear Bowden talk about "light tower power" in the news conference.

Hating Jayson Werth

Nationals fans have started to turn on the $126 million man, and it's utterly predictable, given his .218 batting average and unimpressive 11 HR. Fans were expecting a near-MVP caliber player, and they've gotten something like the second coming of Austin Kearns.

But before the boo-birds get too worked up, let's stop and consider whether he really deserves the ire.

First, Werth hasn't actually been that bad. He's clearly been unlucky; he has a .263 BABIP, 61 points below his career average. That's a huge aberration.

And despite that, he still has a 93 OPS+, which means he's about 93% as good as the average major league hitter. Now, that's not what you want from your right fielder, but if you normalize the balls in play numbers, his on-base percentage would be right in line with his .361 career average.

The low BABIP doesn't explain his power decline--his ISO power (SLG minus BA) is down to .152 from .236 last year. A ten-point decline could probably explained by leaving the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, but not this. It's still possible that Werth could bounce back this year or next--a 350-AB power drought isn't that usual over the course of a players career. But if Werth finishes the season without ever getting hot, it'll be reasonable to worry.

But the real reason fans feel like Werth isn't meeting expectations is that expectations were unduly raised by his outrageous contract.

Werth had been a good player for about three and a half years in his ages 28-31 seasons. But really he'd only been a quality every day player for the last two full seasons, and it's not unusual for late bloomers like this to fade early. Werth also had big home-away splits in Philadelphia and a long track record of injuries.

Sure, most people figured that Werth would be good for at least a couple seasons and only really become a problem in the out-years of his seven year contract. And some looked at Werth's mix of athleticism, speed, power, defense, and contact ability and saw a guy who could age well.

The point is that casual fans wouldn't be nearly as frustrated with Werth if they hadn't been led to believe that the team was acquiring a perennial superstar. So if you want to boo anyone for Werth's contract, boo Mike Rizzo.

Although I'm not even sure I'd do that yet. Don't get me wrong--I think the Werth contract is one of the worst in baseball. But if he has a bounce-back year next season, and the Strasburg-led Nationals make the playoffs, then it'll be at least in part justified. And we're told that part of the reason that the Nationals made the move was to send a message and change perceptions.

The key question is whether the team is planning on expanding it's payroll over the next 3-4 years and by how much. If the Lerners are prepared to expand payroll to $150 million or more a year like the Phillies and Mets, then the Werth contract won't be crippling. If they intend to stay in the $70-90 range like the Indians or Rockies, then the Werth contract will make it nearly impossible to retain cornerstones like Ryan Zimmerman or compete for free agents in the future.

The true mark of a large-market team isn't so much giving out contracts like Werth's. It's the willingness to eat contracts like Werth's and keep on chugging. It's the ability to make mistakes and move on. The Yankees and Red Sox are full of bad contracts like this. John Lackey. Carl Pavano. J.D. Drew. Kei Igawa. A.J. Burnett. Rafael Soriano. Javy Vazquez. Derek Jeter. Julio Lugo. They survive these deals because they budget for a certain percentage of free agents to become busts, which is what you have to do if you want to play in the free agent market because free agents are by definition older, declining players who cost much more than they can be counted on to produce.

The average NL right fielder this season is hitting .267 / .340 / .438. If you normalized Werth's BABIP, that's basically what his stat line would be now. That's not what the team is paying for, but you can definitely win with that--if you can surround that guy with better players elsewhere. The key question is whether the Nationals are prepared to spend enough to do that. Either way, smart fans won't boo Werth. Blame Rizzo, or don't, but don't blame Jayson Werth for being Jayson Werth.

Tyler Clippard: Least Deserving Nationals All-Star Ever?

Over the years the Nationals have had some pretty sad representatives in the All-Star Game.

Dmitri Young in 2007 was probably the worst--an average offensive first baseman and an embarrassingly bad fielder who in total posted 1.5 wins above replacement for the season, or half what Danny Espinosa's already done this year.

A case could also be made for Cristian Guzman in 2008. He made it because he had a fluky .337 BABIP that put him among the league leaders in hits, but he was a below-average fielder and the 5th best shortstop in his own division that year, behind Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez, and Yunel Escobar.

But Tyler Clippard really might be the weakest Nationals all-star ever, and the shame of it is that the team has played legitimate .500 ball over the first 60% or so of the year and really truly had a couple deserving choices.

I don't mean this as a big knock on Clippard. He's a very, very nice relief pitcher. Jim Bowden deserves almost as much credit as he gives himself for acquiring him in exchange for Jonathan Albaladejo.

Still, the reason he's a relief pitcher is because he wasn't good enough to start. So even though Clippard has been very good out of the bullpen over the last season and a half, and we as Nationals fans love our begoggled vulture, we still kinda gotta admit that he's at least not as good as the 50-60 or so solid starting pitchers in the NL. Wanna say he's one of the ten best relievers in the NL? Fine, I could probably go along with that. But that doesn't qualify for the all-star game.

Just looking at the Nationals roster, does anyone really believe that Clippard is better than Jordan Zimmermann? What would Zimmermann's K:BB rate be if he could go all-out and unload his fastball one inning at a time and benefit from favorable match-ups?

Or consider Espinosa, who has been the best second baseman in the NL not named Rickie Weeks. Both Espinosa or Zimmermann would have been solid choices on the merits, without any one-per-team quota.

(And I know some folks wanna make the case for Mike Morse, and he's clearly had a smoking-hot couple months, but his season is just a bit too fluky to really get too riled up about.)

Even the other starting pitchers, none of whom obviously belong in the All-Star Game either, might have a better case than Clippard. Has Clippard been more valuable in his 51 innings than Livan Hernandez has been in 121? Or John Lannan in 108 or Jason Marquis in 106? Or consider this: what would Clippard's numbers look like if he was asked to throw that many innings?

Anyway, it's nice for Tyler Clippard to get the recognition, but it's too bad that in a season when the Nationals really do have some stars to showcase and a good team story to highlight, that the goofy all-star selection process turned the Nationals once again into a punch-line, this time about the no-name reliever who got the win without retiring a single hitter.

Right Track/Wrong Track Results... And a New Poll!

Fizzleman out, Davey in, and the Nationals make it to the break at .500. All that is enough for fan confidence in June to skyrocket to 88%, nearly matching the all-time high of 89% from May, 2010, in the heady days approaching Strasburg's debut.

Voting is open on this month's poll on the right hand side of this page, and to make your voice heard you'll have to hurry up since I was off the grid in Alaska for the last two weeks and didn't get the July post up till the month was nearly half over.