tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post5514840460910507812..comments2023-10-17T10:45:07.796-04:00Comments on FJB: J.J. Hardy: Make it Happen, RizzoUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-19555235387755407462009-10-11T23:25:06.177-04:002009-10-11T23:25:06.177-04:00I never said he was a C-minus. I said I think he&#...I never said he was a C-minus. I said I think he's a C, but didn't specify C-plus, C, or C-minus.<br /><br />John Sickels, one of the most respected scouting guys out there, called him a B-minus at the start of the season. Keith Law said a couple weeks back that he sees Detwiler's ceiling as a #4 starter. <br /><br />So if you think he's "not close to a C," not even a C-plus, then you're arguing with people who have a lot more credibility than I do.<br /><br />Regarding the stats you cite, Detwiler is a great example of a case where FIP is really not very reliable. It's doesn't regress for HR/FB rate, which isn't a repeatable skill, and Brad Lidge has so effectively demonstrated this year. Detwiler's HR/FB rate this year was 3.7%. It'll regress over time to about 11%. <br /><br />xFIP is a version of FIP that adjusts for HR/FB rate, and Detwiler's xFIP was 4.82. tRA is another composite stat that does a similar measure as FIP (but it's scaled to RA, not ERA), and his tRA was 5.33.<br /><br />Really, the reason his stock didn't rise this year in my mind is because he showed declining bat-missing ability. Ks per nine were 7.6 in AAA and just 5.11 in the bigs. This is a function of his ability to command only the fastball and curve. Even if you're a lefty who can touch 95, that's not enough to thrive.<br /><br />We'll see, I hope you're right.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109288910583404941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-57577728232672380572009-10-11T18:04:48.930-04:002009-10-11T18:04:48.930-04:00Detwiler is not close to a C- level prospect at al...Detwiler is not close to a C- level prospect at all. How could you say his stock fell this year when he had a disappointing season last year and a breakout season this year. Tell me how many expected him to have as good of a season as he has so far? He had a great stint in AA and AAA. In the big leagues, he was competent. What amazes me is that you use your "advanced" stats to advance your agenda when it suits, but when it doesn't like in the case of Detwiler, you completely ignore. Look at how his FIP is way ahead of his ERA or that Tommy Hanson was not that much better than Detwiler according to FIP. When was the last B- prospect who fell a whole letter grade after having a 3 ERA in the minors and a 3.89 FIP in the big leagues after a disappointing season in A ball? <br /><br />Seriously, you are losing your credibility with statements like that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-21414991527047072972009-10-08T21:02:38.845-04:002009-10-08T21:02:38.845-04:00Hey Steven
The Padres just released Hill. It'...Hey Steven<br /><br />The Padres just released Hill. It's not too late to give him that second chance.Bennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-58144319514686204602009-10-08T19:41:23.074-04:002009-10-08T19:41:23.074-04:00rather than Hardy, I would like to see them bring ...rather than Hardy, I would like to see them bring Placido Palanco in - I think he is a free agent. Or how about swinging a deal for Uggla?loganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02766371263428262679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-45010335869484950152009-10-08T17:20:30.525-04:002009-10-08T17:20:30.525-04:00Since we're using Sickels's lingo, I thoug...Since we're using Sickels's lingo, I thought it would be helpful to remind everyone that he called Detwiler a B-minus. I referred to Detwiler as a C-level (meaning C-plus, C, or C-minus), because I think his stock fell a bit this year, and I think in the next handbook he'll be a C or C-plus. Here's what Sickels said in August in his top 20 in review (the grade is the old grade, the comments are August comments on how the player did this year): <br /><br /><i>4) Ross Detwiler, LHP, Grade B-: 2.97 ERA with 62/24 K/BB in 67 Double-A and Triple-A innings. Overmatched in 10 major league starts (6.40 ERA, 33/22 K/BB in 52 innings, 69 hits) but will get more chances.</i><br /><br />Regardless, the difference between a B-minus and a C-plus isn't enough for anyone to get in a tizzy about.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109288910583404941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-85576482744034676272009-10-08T17:14:10.953-04:002009-10-08T17:14:10.953-04:00Guzman/Stammen for Hardy/Suppan isn't credible...Guzman/Stammen for Hardy/Suppan isn't credible because the salary advantages for Milwaukee aren't enough.<br /><br />Hardy/Suppan for Stammen/Flores or Stammen/Detwiler are more realistic. Still not deals I would do if I was Melvin, but a lot of people didn't think the Marlins would ever do Olsen and Willingham for Smolinski/Dean/Bonifacio.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109288910583404941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-35040602050665949372009-10-08T17:10:57.232-04:002009-10-08T17:10:57.232-04:00A pitcher who could be a solid #4 is a C prospect....A pitcher who could be a solid #4 is a C prospect.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109288910583404941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-14208011879928336632009-10-08T16:15:47.794-04:002009-10-08T16:15:47.794-04:00Keith Law just had a blog on Detweiler rediscoveri...Keith Law just had a blog on Detweiler rediscovering his form. He thinks Det can be a solid 4 so the idea of him as a C level, especially given his age, is a bit off.hoonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-18326626566176319722009-10-08T16:11:50.682-04:002009-10-08T16:11:50.682-04:00JJ Hardy = Kearns in 3 years? We know this whole ...JJ Hardy = Kearns in 3 years? We know this whole return to the norm has major problems.....it is not dice.<br /><br />Milwaukee does not make bad personnel decisions. The Nats do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-63279107994105652462009-10-08T15:49:26.173-04:002009-10-08T15:49:26.173-04:00estuartj
Calling you stupid is a bit rough. Call...estuartj<br /><br />Calling you stupid is a bit rough. Calling you optimistic less so.Bennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-85222500397702557692009-10-08T15:11:49.986-04:002009-10-08T15:11:49.986-04:00Chris Needham says I'm an idiot for thinking G...Chris Needham says I'm an idiot for thinking Guzman/Stammen for Hardy/Suppan was doable.estuartjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09709330857511429868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-15408040748515852742009-10-08T14:09:22.407-04:002009-10-08T14:09:22.407-04:00How is Ross Detwiler a C- level prospect? He had a...How is Ross Detwiler a C- level prospect? He had a solid year in AA and AAA. Look at his big league numbers with the geeky advanced stats you usually use. Look at his FIP in the big leagues, it was not that far off from Tommy Hanson.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-58801227420017734642009-10-08T12:11:54.392-04:002009-10-08T12:11:54.392-04:00You do hate Lannan. Doesn't mean it isn't...You do hate Lannan. Doesn't mean it isn't a good deal, though. <br /><br />Problem is making that agree with Kasten's aversion to free agent pitching. With Zimmermann out for the year losing Lannan leaves the Nats in a nearly unthinkable position assuming the Nats don't sign anyone.Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-13395371904701980872009-10-08T09:16:25.558-04:002009-10-08T09:16:25.558-04:00I sort of wish he could make Alcides Escobar happe...I sort of wish he could make Alcides Escobar happen. But it never will.<br /><br />Hardy's UZR has been in slight decline for three years. I wonder if he isn't about to be a Guzman for a New Generation.Bennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-40520613663538497662009-10-08T08:51:22.852-04:002009-10-08T08:51:22.852-04:00Suppan not Pussan, sorry.Suppan not Pussan, sorry.estuartjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09709330857511429868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-68658021557511553982009-10-08T08:49:47.846-04:002009-10-08T08:49:47.846-04:00Guzman and Stammen for Hardy and Pussan. Saves MI...Guzman and Stammen for Hardy and Pussan. Saves MIL at least $4mil not including the difference between Hardy's post arbitration salary and Stammen's league minimum. If Stammen is N/A then maybe Balester (more potential upside) or JD Marin/Shairon Martis and a prospect (Cory VanAllen or comparable).<br /><br />Ian Desmond goes to 2B or utility role if they acquire another 2Bman via trade or FA.<br /><br />I still see the primary trade bait on the team being Josh Willingham, with decently poor D and a lively bat, but most importantly 2 more seasons under team control, he should draw a solid return (Miguel Montero of ARI is a favorite) and we have several workable LF/RF options in house to replace him (J-Max and Bernadina in RF with Dukes to LF?).<br /><br />If Rizzo has as much a infatuation with former players as JimBow did at least its better to be obsessed with ARI vs CIN player! Maybe he has the personal relationship with Brandon Webb to lure him to WAS if ARI declines his option? We can hope...estuartjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09709330857511429868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-71971965933578437222009-10-08T08:10:16.708-04:002009-10-08T08:10:16.708-04:00Desmond could be the utility guy. He's not so ...Desmond could be the utility guy. He's not so great that you can't upgrade over him.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109288910583404941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-35150554870138962282009-10-08T07:54:54.556-04:002009-10-08T07:54:54.556-04:00I sure agree with you about Hardy--there has been ...I sure agree with you about Hardy--there has been all sorts of comment in the baseball blogosphere about what a good pickup he would be (which might have the effect of raising his price).<br /><br />You didn't address the question of what to do with Desmond if the Nats do get Hardy. I may be higher on Desmond than you are, but I do agree with you that he has yet to prove he can be a regular contributor at a major league level. He's not going to be able to prove (or disprove) that either in Syracuse or sitting on the Nationals bench. The best thing, if the Nats can get Hardy, would be to unload Guzman, either for Hardy or someone else, and let Desmond play second (which he might have to do eventually anyway if Espinosa pans out). Unfortunately, considering that the Nats would likely have to pay a BIG chunk of Guz's salary just to get him off their hands, this is unlikely to happen.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com