tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post5793003176841417918..comments2023-10-17T10:45:07.796-04:00Comments on FJB: Appreciating Willie HarrisUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-19301966522413155862008-12-15T14:41:00.000-05:002008-12-15T14:41:00.000-05:00@Will/James--I agree with you both. This isn't wha...@Will/James--<BR/><BR/>I agree with you both. This isn't what I expected when I started. I drafted a post which described Willie's season as "one of the best seasons by a Nats outfielder not named Soriano."<BR/><BR/>But then I punched the numbers into my spreadsheet and found that Harris was even better. I went through and double-checked all the numbers because I didn't really believe it. But I can't think of a reason why my methodology isn't sound and there aren't any typos.<BR/><BR/>I agree about the inherent slippery-ness of the defense numbers, which I think is a function of sample size, not that it's BS. That's why I pulled both the UZR and rate2 numbers, rather than one or the other. But note that Willie comes out ahead whether you use UZR or rate2. There's a lot of evidence that Willie was not just good but absolutely marvelous in the field, and that performance translates into actual runs saved that are every bit as valuable as the runs created by Soriano's homers.<BR/><BR/>I do think it's important to note that we're talking about their rates of production, not absolute production. I don't think that's taking anything away from Willie to just note that we're talking about rates of production. Over 2/3 of a season he was more productive than Soriano was over a full season. But it's not the same, and there's also a lot of evidence to suggest that Willie isn't likely to maintain this rate of production.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109288910583404941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-29273941888824087832008-12-15T14:31:00.000-05:002008-12-15T14:31:00.000-05:00Willie is like the Bizarro Redding. At first we w...Willie is like the Bizarro Redding. At first we were like "Oh this guy is awful!" then during the course of the season he didn't do anything specifically to shaker that feeling. But at seasons end in review we were like "Hey, this guy had a pretty decent year".<BR/><BR/>Now if only it didn't take his best offensive season of his career at age 30 to make this happen...Harperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07738813756060133236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-43521533806648627902008-12-15T13:56:00.000-05:002008-12-15T13:56:00.000-05:00James, well said. Just note that defensive stats c...James, well said. Just note that defensive stats can fluctuate significantly one season to the other. Players considered great defensively have been known to go from the best to average back to the best in three seasons. For example, Carl Crawford, one of the best LFs in the game, went from 14.5 runs above average to 4.7 to 28.6 over the past 3 years. Curtis Granderson went from 10.4 defensive runs above average last year to -11.0 runs below average this year.<BR/><BR/>The defensive metrics are still a little rough, but have improved dramatically just over the past couple years. That being said, Harris has been excellent defensively whenever he's been given ample playing time (his UZR/150 was 20.5 runs above average in 2007). On top of his defensive ability, he has immense value in his versatility. He played five different positions last year.Willhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01902355704452340677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-28490288518635170652008-12-15T12:47:00.000-05:002008-12-15T12:47:00.000-05:00As a scientist by training, I appreciate the new, ...As a scientist by training, I appreciate the new, improved metrics for player impact above the old stats on my Topps cards growing up (that Boswell still clings to apparently). Therefore I am not surprised that there is an increasing appreciation of how wins are determined by runs scored RELATIVE to runs given up.<BR/><BR/>That said, the implications of your number crunching, even if you overstate Harris' net worth by 20-30%, are staggering. I find it hard to believe that we got such plus ability for such a pittance!<BR/><BR/>I'm still left wondering if this is for real.<BR/><BR/>On another front, one still has to consider that from a popularity standpoint, perception IS reality, just as in politics. A Pat Burrell type will nevertheless do more to increase the 9000 viewers on MASN (and fannies in the stands) more than highlight reel catches.James Bjorkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12300788103065851752noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-30830073486800745632008-12-15T09:33:00.000-05:002008-12-15T09:33:00.000-05:00I'm no fan of using a rebuilding team to extend th...I'm no fan of using a rebuilding team to extend the life of modestly skilled over-30 utilitymen. The Nats and you should take a bow for seeing that Harris is more than that.<BR/><BR/>His considerable tangibles aside, an intangible element of his value was pointed out during a Nats broadcast that I was listening to while I was driving back to Maryland from a P-Nats game late one Saturday night last summer, when either Slowes or Jageler -- I forget which -- said that Harris <I>coaches himself</I> at the plate. I'd always been a Willie fan for reasons I hadn't understood, but when I heard that, the <B>Eureka!</B> moment was so vivid I like to drove off the side of Route 1.<BR/><BR/>Put more succinctly, Willie Harris is the kind of guy you'd be scrambling around for if you didn't have him. Good on the Nats for keeping him in the fold.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01915120760049904431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-67365004292072160042008-12-15T09:28:00.000-05:002008-12-15T09:28:00.000-05:00@dcbatgirl--I dunno. My therapist says that it mig...@dcbatgirl--I dunno. My therapist says that it might have something to do with being a child of divorce and inconsistent displays of love as a child. Maybe that's TMI ;-)<BR/><BR/>OK but seriously I think the reason I think people will be skeptical is just that defense isn't as easy to measure and isn't hardly ever even mentioned in the mainstream press. If you're at every game and paying attention, you really see the difference. But while every homer shows up in the boxscore, it's hard to notice when a player is truly having an off-the-charts magnificent season in the field as it's playing out unless you're there, because those plays don't get tallied in the boxscore, and the best measures of defense (UZR, Rate2, PMR, Dewan's plus-minus) are hard to understand and don't generally come out in real time.<BR/><BR/>Soriano's offensive contributions were clear for all to see. The value of Harris's glove, cumulatively as great as Soriano's bat, is harder to perceive. So I think people will be naturally skeptical that Harris was really this good overall.<BR/><BR/>But just because the value of defense is harder to measure doesn't mean it's any less important. His glove was magnificent, and won several games for this team.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109288910583404941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-50034735921789658482008-12-15T08:21:00.000-05:002008-12-15T08:21:00.000-05:00Why are you assuming everyone will disagree w/you?...Why are you assuming everyone will disagree w/you?<BR/><BR/>Even without the documentation you provided, Willie's intangibles should be apparent to anyone paying attention.<BR/><BR/>Count me among those who will be happy to see Willie back next year.dcbatgirlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07912765927644618265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-81497982029934004452008-12-15T07:12:00.000-05:002008-12-15T07:12:00.000-05:00I think the 22 Outfield Assists show the value of ...I think the 22 Outfield Assists show the value of Alfonso that year. An out is not just an out, not all outs are the same. An out at 2nd base, 3rd base or Home which is where all those Alfonso throw were, is much better than one at first. This is why your stats need to have the reality check of watching the games. <BR/><BR/>If, IF…….if jimbo was making out the lineups.......Estrada starting catcher over Flores in July.......come on....wake up...there is a reason Manny Acta was given the job without any experience and why so many much more talented managers refused to even interview.....JayBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11448827055342357809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-64472194381642465212008-12-15T06:54:00.000-05:002008-12-15T06:54:00.000-05:00@Will--that's right, but I think he waited too lon...@Will--that's right, but I think he waited too long to pull the plug on WMP and rotating through Lo Duca in LF was a waste of time. I don't think it would be fair for anyone to say that he should have known to play him from Opening Day, and I think JayB is obviously using a bit of hyperbole with this "unqualified to manage" bit, but it seems like he could have found the answer maybe a week or two faster than he did. Or, if Bowden was actually writing out the lineup card, that would be damning of the organization. I hope Manny wouldn't stand for that.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109288910583404941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-43239385398635210892008-12-15T06:47:00.000-05:002008-12-15T06:47:00.000-05:00To be fair to Manny, Harris did start just about e...To be fair to Manny, Harris did start just about every game from mid-June until the end of the season. I don't fault Acta for not starting Harris at the start of the season (really who would've expected a season like that?), but I would blame him if he hadn't continued starting Harris after he put up numbers like he did.Willhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01902355704452340677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-79625273852197168022008-12-15T06:31:00.000-05:002008-12-15T06:31:00.000-05:00Soriano's outfield assists are a good idea of why ...Soriano's outfield assists are a good idea of why context is so important. He had 22 assists because his arm was weak enough that people wanted to test him. But it wasn't quite as weak as people thought. Come to think of it, maybe that's why his defense ratings aren't so bad when he seemed so awkward in the field to the naked eye.<BR/><BR/>You're right Manny should have played Willie more.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109288910583404941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-5514590255693439852008-12-15T05:46:00.000-05:002008-12-15T05:46:00.000-05:00Ok so I put the bookmark back already, so what.......Ok so I put the bookmark back already, so what......What this post really should have been titled was, "Manny Acta, lier or just unqualified to Manage".<BR/><BR/>If you believe Manny, it was his decision to get Harris only 360 ABs. We all know it was Jimbo who put Pena, Lo Duca, Casto, Roger B in LF and Lopez at 2nd base instead of Harris but if you take Manny at his word.....your stats clearly show......he is not qualified for the job, OR he is less than honest with the fans. Either way the fans lost out last year.JayBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11448827055342357809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-75168219134492301482008-12-15T05:01:00.000-05:002008-12-15T05:01:00.000-05:00Your right, Harris had a very good year. You’re a...Your right, Harris had a very good year. You’re also right, I have deleted you as one of my bookmarks. You have to be on the field to affect the game and less than 400 ABs makes this type of projection crap just that. Stats like these are nice and fun to look at but give me Alfonso in 2006 with his league leading outfield assists and his bat. How many less outs did that arm create, that would be 22! Yes teams were dumb to run on him so much but an out was still an out and one less that was needed to win a game. In baseball on the field…..those things matter……just check how many outfield assists Milledge had last year while leading the team in innings played. That would be one, just one.JayBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11448827055342357809noreply@blogger.com