tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post7473348168355395337..comments2023-10-17T10:45:07.796-04:00Comments on FJB: Hitters, Luck, BABIP, and the NationalsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-53507166905410349192009-01-22T11:16:00.000-05:002009-01-22T11:16:00.000-05:00Steven: what's your take on the difference between...Steven: what's your take on the difference between the Nats and Zimmerman's arbitration figures? A remarkably big difference - what do you think it means?e pochttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02529691003022253802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-14031772359602288672009-01-20T01:01:00.000-05:002009-01-20T01:01:00.000-05:00I don't think you're missing any boats with Willie...I don't think you're missing any boats with Willie. There's really nothing special there. His career wOBA is .303. Unless his 100 at-bats against lefties last year represents a real change in skill level rather than just a fluke, his offense will take a dip this year, especially if he plays every day. The defense is nice, but really only nice enough to make him a starter on a team that doesn't have other options. Here are our current outfield options and what CHONE sees them doing in 150 games at a corner:<BR/><BR/>Dukes: +11 offense, +2 defense, +13 total<BR/>Willingham: +8 offense, -8 defense, +0 overall<BR/>Milledge: +0 offense, +0 defense, +0 overall<BR/>Kearns: -3 offense, +7 defense, +4 overall<BR/>Harris: -10 offense, +14 defense, +4 overall<BR/><BR/>CHONE isn't the end-all, be-all of player evaluation, of course, but those projections seem pretty fair. As you can see, Harris isn't noticeably better than Kearns, Willingham, or Milledge. Milledge and Kearns are probably the best of the lot (aside from Dukes, of course), as they're the only ones who have much upside on both the offensive and defensive ends.<BR/><BR/>The frustrating part is that while neither Kearns, Willingham, or Harris has a part in the future of the team, they could all have decent trade value, but we don't have enough spots to show them off. If it were up to me, the outfield would be Dukes, Milledge, Kearns, left to right, and Willingham would play first to spell NJ every once in awhile (and then permanently when NJ gets injured). I'd use Willie as a super-sub and defensive replacement.e pochttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02529691003022253802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-84051513486895107252009-01-19T16:44:00.000-05:002009-01-19T16:44:00.000-05:00Max--Yeah, it's a concern. I'm not where you are, ...Max--Yeah, it's a concern. I'm not where you are, but sad to say for Nationals fans your position is not an unreasonable one.<BR/><BR/>I think between the injury and the fact that he's always been a slow starter--it just doesn't outweigh how very, very good he was in '06. And he's still very young.<BR/><BR/>But you're right that there's really no silver lining in the 08 numbers.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109288910583404941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-85731610765769481432009-01-19T16:05:00.000-05:002009-01-19T16:05:00.000-05:00Biggest thing that jumps out at me is Zimmerman's ...Biggest thing that jumps out at me is Zimmerman's xOBP and xBA are crap. It validates the thinking that he took a step (or two) back last year. Perhaps his injuries were a factor, but it really brings up the question of whether he really is the future. There's certainly no reason to sign him to a big, long term deal right now. People calling for that aren't looking at the numbers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com