tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post8416536873317311025..comments2023-10-17T10:45:07.796-04:00Comments on FJB: Updated Nationals Wins Above Replacement ProjectionUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-34866522869307393302010-02-07T20:44:56.044-05:002010-02-07T20:44:56.044-05:00Rob--yes.
Deez--I hear you. One bit of context to...Rob--yes.<br /><br />Deez--I hear you. One bit of context to keep in mind is that the projection systems all assume a decent amount of regression to the mean. Since 100+ losses is statistically a large deviation from the mean, the statistical projections like PECOTA, Bill James, CHONE, etc., will basically never project 100 losses. This isn't a prediction so much as the statistically most likely outcome. <br /><br />Personally I'd bet the under, by a decent amount.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14109288910583404941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-17712534142336021482010-02-07T12:47:16.130-05:002010-02-07T12:47:16.130-05:00As a suffering ST holder, after the last 2 years, ...As a suffering ST holder, after the last 2 years, I'll be elated if they can win 74 games.Deez Natshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18281335833152704018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2074246508221440257.post-40772005093862393622010-02-07T11:11:17.626-05:002010-02-07T11:11:17.626-05:00This may be a stupid question but based on these n...This may be a stupid question but based on these numbers, does that mean that a team comprised entirely of "replacement" level players should in theory win 44 games?Rob Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09049610714885872963noreply@blogger.com