After Some Time... It's not a Boner-Facio, but I'm Underwhelmed

First, let me say, I'm no prospects expert. I've never even seen this kid play, not on TV, nothing. And even if I'd seen every move he's made since grade school, my opinion isn't worth a bucket of spit next to any pro scout's. So with THAT out of the way, here's my take.

Emilio Bonifacio is a 23-year-old switch-hitting 2B/SS currently hitting .302-.348-.387 with 17 SB in 85 games at AAA Tuscon. His primary assets are excellent speed and excellent defense at second. Clearly, the stolen bases are there--his career SB success rate is 78%. Defensive stats are hard, but his Baseball Prospectus Rate2 stat for 2007 is a very good 122 (100 is average, and 122 means he saves his team 22 runs for every 100 games played). As they say, speed and defense don't slump, so count on that much at least.

JimBo says:

"This trade brings us a quality, young player, who has the potential to develop into a solid leadoff hitter and outstanding defensive second baseman," general manager Jim Bowden said. "He is a high-energy player with a lot of potential, and we anticipate he'll fit nicely into our long-term plan of drafting, acquiring and developing a solid nucleus that will lead our club in the near future."

However, his OBP definitely isn't good enough to be the lead-off guy Bowden said he could be, and he'll need to see a pretty big jump just to be a useful everyday player of any kind because he's never going to develop any power. His career OBP is .338, and .348 this year. He strikes out (15.9% of his PAs this year) more than twice as often as he walks (6.7%), which saps most of the value of his speed. The consensus seems to be that we can at least count on a good utility guy, with the high-end potential to be a very good defensive 2B and decent bottom of the order guy. Lead-off man seems like a pipe dream. The most favorable comparison I've seen anywhere is to Luis Castillo, but there are lots of comparisons that are much less favorable.

But there are the reasons to like the deal, should we choose to be optimistic:

1. Rauch has pitched 226.1 relief innings since Opening Day 2006. The list of pitchers who have had that kind of workload and not gotten hurt isn't very long. Add in just the inherently erratic nature of relief pitchers' performance, and I wouldn't be shocked if the D'Backs don't get nearly as much from Rauch over the next two and a half years as we've gotten from the last.
2. Rauch, who will be 30 at year's end and is under contract for one more year, with a club option for 2010, is highly unlikely to be a part of The First Great Nationals Team. If the goal is to win the World Series as soon and as many times as possible (as I think it should be), you traded a guy who almost surely won't be a part of that for someone who might be. From that perspective, it makes sense.
3. Nationals AGM Mike Rizzo was the scouting director in Arizona when Bonifacio was signed as a minor league FA in 2001, and his track record there was pretty outstanding. If this was Bowden acquiring another one of his Cincy guys, we'd be howling. But Rizzo doesn't have Bowden's track record.
   
4. The trade certainly gives us a leg-up on the Stephen Strasburg sweepstakes!
   

But still, I'm underwhelmed. I feel obliged to at least give a golf clap since I've been screaming for JimBo to move Rauch for youth, but this just doesn't seem like enough return. Maybe I was overrating Rauch's trade value, and maybe I just got a little too hyped reading rumors about Rauch for Rays' powerhouse Wade Davis (which I never believed, but this isn't within two counties of that), but it just seems like someone would have given more, and that if this was all we could get we should have waited.

And yes, I admit, I have a bad feeling just because Josh Byrnes is a way better GM than our guy.

Here are some of the comments from around the Internets:

Baseball America had him as the D'Backs' #6 prospect and the fastest baserunner and defensive infielder in their system. Here's Aaron Fitt's take on him today:

Bonifacio, 23, ranked as the No. 6 prospect in the Arizona system entering this year and has thrived in his Triple-A debut, batting .302/.348/.387 with one homer, 29 RBIs and 17 stolen bases for Tucson. That performance earned him his first taste of the big leagues, where he is 2-for-12 with a stolen base in eight games. Bonifacio, signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2001, broke out in 2006 at high Class A Lancaster, batting .321/.449/.375 with seven homers, 50 RBIs and 61 steals. His well-above-average speed is his best tool, and he uses is effectively on the basepaths. He plays with energy and passion and is a plus defender at second, with reliable hands, great range and a strong arm. He earns comparisons to Luis Castillo, but he needs to cut down on his strikeouts.

And his take on the trade overall:

This trade is a win for both sides. The Diamondbacks get a reliable setup man for closer Brandon Lyon and bolster a bullpen that ranks eighth in the majors with a 3.97 ERA. On top of that, Rauch comes cheap and will be under Arizona's control until 2010. Bonifacio was blocked by Orlando Hudson in Arizona and was expendable.

The Nationals, meanwhile, are going nowhere this season and were able to parlay one of their few desirable major league commodities into a player who may become their second baseman of the future. Even in the short term, Bonifacio could supplant struggling second baseman Felipe Lopez and outsized veteran Ronnie Belliard.

John Sickels gave Bonifacio a C+ grade this past off season (which I think means he's a middling prospect, but I'll be damned if that website ever explains the rating system) and ranked him the D'Backs' 10th best prospect going into this season.

Baseball Prospectus's 2008 Annual says:

"Even though he didn't hit in the California League or at Double-A, it's too early to write off Bonifacio. Gifted with blazing speed and a certain brio, he's what some might call a gamer, but despite the slappy-speed-guy profile, the bat doesn't get knocked out if his hands in tight spots. His upside is something in the Tony Womack/Miguel Cairo range. His glovework at second is better than those two, but he's not able to handle shortstop as a regular.

Baseball Prospectus's take on the trade is here.

Baseball HQ said this about Bonifacio when he was called up briefly earlier this year:

The Diamondbacks called up Emilio Bonifacio to give them some infield depth on their bench. Bonifacio had a breakout season in 2006 when he hit .321 with 35 doubles, 7 home runs, and 61 SB at High-A Lancaster. Since then he has made steady progress and is among the speediest players in the minors. Defensively Bonifacio has a good glove, strong arm, and soft hands. For now Bonifacio will serve as a utility infielder.

The chatter at Baseball Think Factory isn't positive. In particular, retired blogger Chris Needham's take is quite negative.

And it turns out they're going to Hanrahan to close. I think Saul is better at this point, but he doesn't have the dominating stuff you look for in a closer. Hanrahan does. So it makes sense that they would give Joel a chance to see if he can do it. And if he can, his value goes way up.

• A few more reactions today. SI.com's Jon Heyman says: "The relief market looks a lot stronger than the starting market now. But a couple executives with relievers to sell expressed annoyance that the Nationals dealt Jon Rauch to the Diamondbacks for second-base prospect Emilio Bonifacio, claiming it wasn't enough for Rauch. "I was surprised that's all Washington got,'' one AL executive said. However, Bonifacio isn't bad (one exec likened him to former big leaguer Delino DeShields, who was a top stolen base threat for years), and if anyone knows the D'backs' prospects, it's Nats assistant GM Mike Rizzo. Bonifacio is said to be a fine defender with excellent speed."

• Baseball Prospectus's Christina Kahrl says:
  

Why? Because crushing the spirit of any aspiring fan base just isn't enough for some teams. There's little rational explanation for why you would dump a cheaply-signed Rauch for a dubious middle infield prospect. Bonifacio's aspiration in life will be to fight guys like the thumb-gifted Felipe Lopez or Ronnie Belliard's aging toad act; it is perhaps a goal beyond his grasp. Last I checked, steals were a counting-stat category that counted in make-believe, and not so much in real-world baseball, but hey, at least Bonifacio will steal bases. Sort of—he's been caught eight times in 25 attempts with Tucson. Swell. But speed equals leadoff skills, right? Not so much, not when you've got a guy who's hitting a weak .302/.348/.387 for the Sidewinders. That sounds pretty good... except it's in Tucson, and translating that kind of production from him into what you might get from him at his peak gets you to a guy who might chip in at .269/.318/.347, or a .237 Equivalent Average. Maybe a slower, better-fielding edition of Tony Womack is what this team needs. If it is, you might wind up asking about what the actual goals are, because this is the kind of “prospect” who grows up to kill you because he's the real-world definition of what a replacement-level regular at second looks like.

So fans need something else to get excited about where the future's concerned, so why not repeat last winter's mistakes with Young and Belliard—not to mention the big mistake four years ago in spending top dollar in the first place—and shower the cooling Guzman with cash? How many low-OBP singles hitters will this team need? Is the new Deadball Era around the corner, and only Stan Kasten got the memo?

In the face of such overwhelming horrors, it's easy to lose sight of the happy bits of news. Getting back Zimmerman—the face of this franchise, however much money gets thrown at the likes of Guzman—is obviously good news, and pushes Belliard back to... first base? It's that or re-initiating the midget-wrestling contest over whether Belliard or Lopez is the team's second baseman. Mock's role will have to be sorted out, since he's done good work in the Columbus rotation, but other than Collin Balester (who Mock bettered in Triple-A), there isn't really a weak link in the big-league rotation, and Balester's made only three starts as of yet. However, given the time of year, there's plenty of speculation over whether or not somebody might trade for Odalis Perez or Tim Redding; if Ed Wade had enough prospects to pass around, you might have gotten something tasty.