Thursday, August 21, 2008

John Sickels Top Prospects in Review

Just passing along this post on the progress this year of the Nationals' top prospects, as ranked by John Sickels last winter.

Here's his grading scale:
  • Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
  • Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
  • Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
Here's the full post:

Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects in Review

This list was originally posted November 20th, 2007. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST!!! THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND OLD GRADES!!!!!!!

1) Chris Marrero, 1B-OF, Grade B+
.250/.325/.453 at Class A Potomac before going down with broken ankle/leg injury. Plate discipline is so-so, loads of power potential, just 20.
2) Ross Detwiler, LHP, Grade B+
5.08 with 101/50 K/BB in 108 innings for Potomac, 122 hits allowed. I expected better.
3) Michael Burgess, OF, Grade B+
.249/.334/.477 with 20 homers, 142 strikeouts in 117 games between Hagerstown and Potomac. Tons of power, young, high strikeout rate is a concern.
4) Justin Maxwell, OF, Grade B
.233/.367/.459 with 13 steals in 43 games for Double-A Harrisburg, out with a wrist injury since May. The Adam Miller of hitters.
5) Jordan Zimmerman, RHP, Grade B
3.32 ERA with 91/35 K/BB in 98 innings, 82 hits allowed for Harrisburg. A very good prospect.
6) Collin Balester, RHP, Grade B-
4.00 ERA with 64/23 K/BB in 79 innings for Triple-A Columbus, 5.06 with 28/16 K/BB in 43 innings for the Nationals. His scouting reports have always been better than his stats.
7) Josh Smoker, LHP, Grade B-
Destroyed in the Sally League, 11.50 ERA with 31 hits allowed in 18 innings. In the GCL, 1.19 ERA with 14/12 K/BB in 23 innings. Disappointing performance from a guy I was very high on. Still interesting, but young pitchers will break your heart.
8) Adam Carr, RHP, Grade B-
6.17 with 51/30 K/BB in 54 innings combined between Potomac and Harrisburg, 56 hits allowed. Looks like command is the main problem here.
9) John Lannan, LHP, Grade B-
3.40 ERA with 87/50 K/BB in 138 innings for the Nationals, 129 hits allowed. A solid 3/4 starter.
10) Glenn Gibson, LHP, Grade C+
Traded to Tampa Bay, has been horrible, 7.29 ERA with 60/51 K/BB in 88 innings, 113 hits combined between Sally and NY-P Leagues. Seems to have completely fallen apart.
11) Colton Willems, RHP, Grade C+
3.70 ERA with 60/31 K/BB in 109 innings for Hagerstown, 103 hits allowed. Good control, gets grounders, young, but low strikeout rate worrisome.
12) Ian Desmond, SS, Grade C+
.246/.321/.388 for Harrisburg. I thought he was capable of better, but Double-A transition has exposed flaws.
13) Jack McGeary, LHP, Grade C+
5.09 ERA, 46/12 K/BB in 46 innings for the GCL Nationals, 54 hits allowed. Good K/BB and K/IP ratios, other numbers so-so, gets grounders. Need data from higher levels.
14) Jake Smolinski, OF, Grade C+
.260/.338/.385 combined between Hagerstown and Vermont in the NY-P. Numbers don't stand out but a 57-game split sample size isn't huge.
15) Jon Albaladejo, RHP, Grade C+
Traded to Yankees for Tyler Clippard.. 3.95 ERA with 13/6 K/BB in 14 innings in New York before going on DL with elbow injury. Can be useful if healthy.
16) Adrian Alaniz, RHP, Grade C+
2.62, 56/25 K/BB in 65 innings for Potomac, 3.97 ERA with 46/30 K/BB in 66 innings for Harrisburg. Ratios slipped after promotion to Double-A, still has a chance to contribute.
17) Shairon Martis, RHP, Grade C+
3.75, 93/43 K/BB in 110 innings, 111 hits combined between Harrisburg and Columbus. Hasn't received much notice this year, but having a good campaign. Fly ball tendency will have to be watched.
18) Jhonny Nunez, RHP, Grade C+
5.22 ERA, 82/21 K/BB in 81 innings at Potomac. Converted to relief, pitched better then traded to Yankees on July 31st, has 1.86 ERA with 10/1 K/BB in 10 innings for Trenton. Could help next year if that continues.
19) Kory Casto, OF-3B, Grade C+
.315/.400/.457 at Columbus, .196/.301/.290 used on the Nationals bench. Might get stuck as a Quadruple-A guy.
20) Josh Whitesell, 1B, Grade C
Put on waivers in March, claimed by Arizona. .329/.426/.565 for Triple-A Tucson. The PCL seems to agree with him. Strikeout rate remains high and don't expect similar numbers in the majors.

Making slow progress. As I wrote in the original list, there is a lot of potential depth here, but young pitching can go backwards on you fast and that happened with some of these guys. They really could have used Crow.


Anonymous said...

10) Glenn Gibson, LHP, Grade C+
Traded to Tampa Bay, has been horrible, 7.29 ERA with 60/51 K/BB in 88 innings, 113 hits combined between Sally and NY-P Leagues. Seems to have completely fallen apart.

Kill JimBo all you want but you have to give him big ups for this gem.

Steven said...

I've never said we should kill anyone.

But yes I agree that trade was a good risk for this team at the time. Right now, it looks even better.

I'm not ready to declare Dukes an HOF-er yet, and my biggest concern is that he can't seem to stay healthy.

But certainly at this moment this would go in the category of "wins" for Bowden.

All that said, it's remarkable that one of his very best moments was acquiring a guy who's hardly played.