James likes Scott Olsen enough that if Olsen does this—4.58 ERA and 199 IP—I’ll have to eat at least a little crow. Still, James thinks Olsen will have a worse ERA than John Lannan, Shawn Hill, Odalis Perez and… get this... Jason Bergmann. (For some reason Fangraphs, where I grabbed these projections, doesn’t have a James projection for Balester, Martis, or Mock).
Probably the Bergmann projection is the biggest surprise here. He’s predicting a significant increase in strikeout rate, which is exactly what an extreme flyball pitcher like Bergmann needs.
The Lannan projection would be a welcome outcome more me—essentially a repeat of 2008, maybe a touch more hittable. I worry fans will expect more there.
If Redding is pitching that badly, he should be out of the rotation before he gets to rack up 168 IP.
The Hanrahan projection seems odd, with his strikeout rate and walk rate both falling but his ERA remaining essentially the same. Somehow that just feels wrong. I don’t see his K-rate falling, and although his walk rate could certainly rise again, I don’t see it falling much if at all. If James’s projection comes true, it seems like that should mean a net improvement in his ERA, since it’ll essentially mean the Joel is pounding the strike zone more and pitching more to contact, which with his stuff should be a net positive.
James hates Steven Shell almost as bad as he hates Anderson Hernandez, although middle relievers across the board are so erratic that projection systems like this are pretty tough to go on.