Thursday, December 18, 2008

2009 CHONE Projections

Check out the Nationals projections here.

BTW--is it really worth $200 million to go from .275 / .420 / .477 to .291 / .391 / .531? Just asking.

11 comments:

JayB said...

Come On Steven.....Nike is not going to give the Nats 600 ABs and you know it.......so the question is stupid. Tex may well be not worth $200 million but Nats can not go into the season with Nick Johnson, D Young, Casto and Belliard as the options for 1B. Been there done that.

JayB said...

Plus, those projections look meaningless with Alex Esobar getting 113 games.......what is up with that.....He is gone right?

Steven said...

If loving Nick is wrong, I don't want to be right. Sorry!

Moe Greene said...

I don't agree with JimBo more often than not, but at this point, your only motive is to throw JimBo under the bus. He's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. Might as wall call you Steven LaConfora.

Steven said...

Moe--Not so at all. Not sure why you say that, especially in response to this post, which is little more than an FYI for people who are interested that the CHONE projections are available at a new site. This post doesn't even mention Jim. The Lerners have clearly been driving the Tex push at least as much as Jim has.

On the Nick v. Tex comment, is it so off-base to suggest that our money could be better spent filling more glaring needs than replacing our best offensive performer? This has been my position from the start of the off-season before the team ever started making noise about Tex.

You really think NO fair-minded person could think that $200 million for one player isn't worth the risk or that there could be better ways to spend that money? If that's what you think I'm afraid I'm not the closed minded one here.

Moe Greene said...

The fact of the matter is that no matter what the Nats do, you're going to find some stat that has no true relevance in the game to support your opinion of "this move smells". I agree that $200,000,000 is a ton of money. I"m not even suggesting it's the right move. My only point is that you'll never be happy no matter what the Nats do. I'm sure you have your own ideas of "the right thing" for our beloved franchise. I'm also sure that I could find several meaningless stats to prove why your ideas stink. We both know that I don't have to read your stuff; you're talented, though. I just wish you'd put some energy into what the Nats do right.

Steven said...

Well, believe that if you like. I'm the biggest fan there is of the Elijah Dukes trade. I applaud the Perez and Redding signings. I gave a milder thumbs up (but a thumbs up regardless) to the Rauch deal. I applaud the Milledge trade. I spent a whole post last week raving about Willie Harris and making a case that he was more valuable on a per game basis than Soriano. I applaud not re-signing Soriano. Belliard and Young were revelations (as cheap deals, not the Meat re-signing...).

So there are a few examples.

Again, it seems obvious that you've decided that no matter what I say it's going to be biased and wrong. You I think are the one being closed minded and unfair. You're entitled of course--not everyone has to like my blog. But for you to say that "no matter what the Nationals or Jim do I'll never support it" is demonstrably false.

jfast said...

The Gnats still lose 100 games with Teixeira. This is ARod with teh Rangers revisited - cant put all that money into one player when the whole team sucks so bad. And who would want to join a team with so many felons and malcontents anyway?

Steve Shoup said...

Yeah but Steven its not $20 million more a season or $200 million over the contract b/c Nick Johnson gets paid as well he's not making league minimum. Right now he's only making $5 million but if he has the season that Chone projects or is even healthier and plays 140+ games than the Nats would have to resign him to a 3-4 deal between $10-15 million per year. Yes Teixeria would make more in years and money, but he's much more reliable, offensively, defensively and healthwise. Also lets be honest, while Teixeria may make $20 million a year, part of that will be made up in ticket sales and merch. How many tickets and jersey's does Nick Johnson get you?

Steve Shoup said...

jfast: I don't know why everyone always says that "arod to the rangers revisted", Arod was a great pick up by the Rangers he gave them 3 amazing years and Soriano (could have gotten Cano also but the Rangers choose poorly). What more could you have asked for? Had they kept him they would have had one of the best offense's year in year out. He had a line up his first few years with Pudge, Palmerio, Young, even Juan Gonzalez was good for one year. And his last year Blalock and Tex came up. The prob. was pitching, but thats always been texas's problem. How is that Arod's fault? Their front office just made bad trades and signings, Arod was at least worth the money what did Chan ho Park do for them? Also now that they have that Arod money off the books are they any better? Are the signings of Millwood and Padilla working out for them? We are talking about a front office that traded away Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young, John Danks, Edison Volquez and Galarraga and all they ever really got in return was Josh hamilton. If they had kept all those young players plus Arod this would be the best team in baseball right now.

jfast said...

Steve, I agree with you but it's not as if Tex would be the final piece to a championship puzzle here in DC. We don't have pitching or any offense so how would Tex help right now? We also won't have offense or pitching for a few more years (if at all) and by then he'll exercise the out clause he'll likely need to have in order to come to DC in the first place. Frankly, I also don't think you can discount the current economy right now and it's likely impact on MLB.

Of course it wasn't ARod's fault that the Rangers play in a telephone booth and desparately overpay for mediocre pitchers coming off semi-decent years. While I don't disagree with you on that, the fact that Bowden trades for and signs either ex-Reds, ex-cons, or malcontent cast-offs makes it difficult for me to be a fan (and I have had Gnats season tickets since day 1). And then they think they can wipe clean last year's disaster with one overpriced signing and think I as the average fan am dumb enough to take the bait and think all is well (when they can't even sign their top draft picks!).