Saturday, January 31, 2009

PECOTA Spreadsheets Available

Baseball Prospectus has posted their PECOTA projections for 2009. PECOTA's been one of the best projection systems out there, especially for pitchers. You have to subscribe to get the full spreadsheets, but I don't think they'll mind if I post a few notables.

Pitchers first:
  • They really like former Indians prospect J.D. Martin, projecting him for a 4.62 eqERA (league and park adjusted ERA), which is better than any other Nationals pitcher other than Saul Rivera (4.53). The team never mentions him as a candidate for the rotation, but I've been saying since the day he signed that if he's given a fair shot he could easily win a spot.
  • They don't expect Terrell Young to make it through his rule-5 season, projecting him for a whopping 7.46 eqERA.
  • They agree with the team that Jordan Zimmermann's ready, seeing him striking out 6.8 per 9 on his way to a 4.72 eqERA, which trails only Daniel Cabrera's eqERA projection among rotation candidates (speaking of Cabrera Eric Seidman has a really interesting piece on him here).
  • They also expect sub-replacement level performance from Collin Balester and Mike Hinckley.
And hitters:
  • They see a moderate bounce-back season for Austin Kearns (.264 / .355 / .417) , but not enough to make him a starter. Dukes, Milledge, and Willingham all top him in EqA, BP's composite offensive rate stat.
  • Nick Johnson's projection (.266 / .410 / .472) compares nicely to Mark Teixeira's (.287 / .379 / .506). Nick's EqA actually beats Tex .312 to .308.
  • They expect sub-replacement level from Anderson Hernandez.
  • Milledge's OBP climbs to .352. That'd be a great step for his age-24 season.
  • Zimmerman's projection is very solid (.289 / .358 / .471) but not the spectacular break-out they'd projected in past years.
  • They love Dukes, seeing a big .282 / .390 /.508 season for him.

1 comment:

Sean Hogan said...

I agree wholeheartedly on Martin. Having him in DC should stabilize the rotation/bullpen nicely. And by nicely, I mean it will be one less Levale Speigner/Brian Sanches to worry about.