One of the interesting things about the new roster is that it creates ample opportunities to mix-and-match the daily line-up card to maximize match-up advantages. After a year in which Manny had a very righty-heavy roster to work with, he now has many more options. Consider these scenarios.
Max lefty bats against RHP:
C: Javier Valentin#
1B: Nick Johnson*
2B: Anderson Hernandez#
SS: Cristian Guzman#
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
LF: Adam Dunn*
CF: Willie Harris*
RF: Elijah Dukes
*bats left
#bats both
Against LHPs, you can rest Nick, keep Dunn in the line-up at first, and then go all righties in the OF:
C: Jesus Flores
1B: Adam Dunn*
2B: Ron Belliard
SS: Cristian Guzman#
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
LF: Josh Willingham
CF: Lastings Milledge
RF: Elijah Dukes / Austin Kearns
On days off for Dunn, you can go even more heavy for the platoon advantage against LHPs. This would be a 100% right-handed line-up:
C: Jesus Flores
1B: Josh Willingham
2B: Ron Belliard
SS: Cristian Guzman#
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
LF: Elijah Dukes
CF: Lastings Milledge
RF: Austin Kearns
Manny's also been a fan of late-inning defensive replacements, though last year's chronically short bench and lack of good fielders on the bench really hamstrung him in this area. Here's a pretty slick-fielding group that Manny can use anytime there's a late lead this year:
C: Jesus Flores
1B: Nick Johnson
2B: Anderson Hernandez
SS: Alberto Gonzalez (increasingly I'm thinking he should / could make the team)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
LF: Elijah Dukes
CF: Willie Harris
RF: Austin Kearns
Sunday, February 15, 2009
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4 comments:
Interesting exercise, but you've got Josh Willingham playing 1B and LF simultaneously when Johnson and Dunn rest. Have you recalibrated his defensive range?
Even Willie Harris couldn't do it.
Two questions come to mind. First, do you think Valentin is going to be the back-up Catcher? I know very little about him to be honest.
Second, you have Duks switching to LF for defensive replacement, is Kearns a significantly enough better defender in RF than Dukes to justify moving him out of his starting position?
Final observation is that although I agree that Nick will need as many days off as possible, Nick's splits against lefties are dramatically better than Dunn's so if you are solely trying to maximize offense if you are only sitting one of the two it makes more sense to start Willingham over Dunn than over Johnson.
I don't know who will be the back-up catcher, but based on their recent track records Javier Valentin is a better player than Wil Nieves. I know Wil's a fan favorite, and he's a very nice-looking man, but Valentin is as good or better defender, a clearly superior hitter, and also a switch-hitter? Seems like an awfully logical choice.
Of course, I wouldn't actually platoon him with Nieves--I'm just playing out a scenario for the max-lefty lineup when that's most desirable.
Then yes I think Kearns is clearly a superior defensive outfielder to Dukes. Dukes is good, but Kearns is one of the better defensive RFs in baseball.
Re: Nick--it's not that he can't hit lefties, it's just looking for optimizing the match-ups. Some pitchers have extreme platoon splits. And yest I would love to see the team use Dunn and Willingham to spell Nick twice a week, keep him to 120 starts, and give him a better chance of making 450 ABs.
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