You can as always view the full spreadsheet here to see all the dirty math. My contribution is to simply estimate playing time and then run the numbers. For more detail on the method, check out my original WAR post here. Also, I have my calculation for fielding runs above replacement posted here and explained at the very bottom of this post.
But if you just want the bottom line results, here you go:
Hitters WAR
| Pos | Name | PT | wOBA | FRAA | Pos adj | WAR |
| C | J. Flores | 70% | .296 | 0 | 1.25 | 0.80 |
| C | W. Nieves | 30% | .288 | 0 | 1.25 | 0.20 |
| 1B | N. Johnson | 50% | .399 | 7.38 | -1.25 | 2.79 |
| 1B | D. Young | 20% | .344 | -7.44 | -1.25 | 0.16 |
| 1B | R. Belliard | 30% | .331 | 0 | -1.25 | 0.02 |
| 2B | R. Belliard | 40% | .331 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0.90 |
| 2B | A. Hernandez | 60% | .288 | 0 | 0.25 | -0.20 |
| SS | C. Guzman | 85% | .326 | -3.60 | 0.75 | 1.78 |
| SS | A. Hernandez | 15% | .288 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.02 |
| 3B | R. Zimmerman | 85% | .371 | 15.11 | 0.25 | 5.23 |
| 3B | R. Belliard | 15% | .331 | -8.94 | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| RF | E. Dukes | 65% | .369 | 6.85 | -0.75 | 2.74 |
| RF | A. Kearns | 35% | .341 | 15.16 | -0.75 | 1.17 |
| CF | L. Milledge | 75% | .348 | -8.47 | 0.25 | 1.83 |
| CF | W. Harris | 25% | .330 | 11.85 | 0.25 | 0.84 |
| LF | J. Willingham | 80% | .362 | -15.03 | -0.75 | 1.30 |
| LF | W. Harris | 20% | .330 | 23.49 | -0.75 | 0.70 |
| Total | 20.49 |
Pitchers WAR
| IP | ERA | WAR | ||
| SP | John Lannan | 180 | 4.38 | 2.22 |
| SP | Scott Olsen | 190 | 4.42 | 2.26 |
| SP | Daniel Cabrera | 190 | 4.31 | 2.49 |
| SP | Collin Balester | 150 | 5.49 | 0.02 |
| SP | Jordan Zimmermann | 50 | 4.39 | 0.61 |
| SP | Shawn Hill | 60 | 4.65 | 0.56 |
| SP | Jason Bergmann | 50 | 4.75 | 0.41 |
| CL | Joel Hanrahan | 70 | 4.28 | 0.17 |
| SU | Saul Rivera | 70 | 4.09 | 0.32 |
| RP | Jesus Colome | 50 | 4.70 | -0.11 |
| RP | Jason Bergmann | 30 | 4.75 | -0.08 |
| RP | Steven Shell | 60 | 4.35 | 0.10 |
| RP | Mike Hinckley | 40 | 5.71 | -0.53 |
| RP | Marco Estrada | 40 | 5.89 | -0.61 |
| RP | Shairon Martis | 63 | 4.4 | 0.09 |
| RP | Wil Ledezma | 50 | 4.71 | -0.12 |
| RP | Terrell Young | 40 | 6.97 | -1.09 |
| RP | Garrett Mock | 40 | 5.05 | -0.24 |
| RP | Gary Glover | 30 | 5.12 | -0.20 |
| Total | 1450 | 6.37 |
Total Team WAR
| Total Offense WAR | 19.74 |
| Total Defense WAR | 0.76 |
| Total SP WAR | 7.74 |
| Total RP WAR | -1.09 |
| Total Wins | 74.15 |
8 comments:
I'm still trying to get my brain around what "replacement level" is in terms of general player performance. Your other link still doesn't get at the main gist. Is it league-AVERAGE performance at the postition? I can't see how it could be, since the Nats score in the overall positive range, yet only have 74 wins.
Thanks, Steven. This is really cool.
Do you know why the runs above average are different on fangraphs than they are on the chone website? Also, how did you figure out offensive runs above average? a conversion from wOBA? You have the hitters a lot higher than the chone website does. Comparisons with fangraphs are a mixed bag: you've got Belliard, Harris, Kearns, and AHern lower; Milledge about even; Nick Johnson higher. Do you know why that's happening? (I'm particularly interested to know why the fangraphs numbers disagree with chone's website's numbers, if you happen to know.)
Okay: I'm wrong. You have Nick Johnson a little low compared to fangraphs as well. So I guess they're just using a slightly different run environment/league average than you? No big deal. So the big question I have is just why chone's website is different than fangraphs - any clue?
Replacement level is basically what could be produced by a AAAA player, someone who's available on a Triple A team or on waivers.
A league average player is something like 20 runs above replacement level, or at least has been recently.
Right--what JN said. If I remember right, it's calculated by BP as the level of production of players who get less than 20% of the PT at a position, or something like that. So it's sometimes described as the value of "freely available talent on the street." That's not right. Many teams don't have "replacement level" talent available in their systems (see: Nationals 1B in 2008). But the actual average level of performance of the guys who get called upon as backups and call-ups.
Re: epoc--I dunno. I should double-check it. it's possible CHONE updated his projections. I pulled those numbers weeks ago. I don't remember if I got it from his site or Fangraphs either.
OK, I get it. So replacement level is almost an economic metric in that you have a benchmark for whether it is worth paying a guy a penny more than the $400k minimum. So how many games in a season does a team of entirely replacement-level players project to win? Might it be around 59?
Very timely--Fangraphs just did a post on this exact topic.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-replacement-level-catchers/
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