Monday, February 9, 2009

PECOTA Predicts the NL East

PECOTA's team record projections are out, and they predict that the Nationals will finish better than last place for only the second time in their 5-year history. Here's their predicted order of finish in the NL East:
1. Mets (93-69)
2. Phillies (88-74)
3. Braves (88-74)
4. Nationals (78-84)
5. Marlins (74-88)

13 comments:

John said...

Matt Sosnick, agent to Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham, and Mike Hinckley (and also the subject of the book "License to Deal") will be speaking in my sports law class tomorrow. So, any questions for him? I'm not sure how much time we'll have for questions, but I'll do my best to ask.
Note: apparently he doesn't handle arbitration negotiations, so no questions about them.

John said...

*that should be arbitration hearing, not negotiations.

Steven said...

Hmmm... I guess I'd be interested in an agent's view of how well the current CBA is working for players. What would he change in the next negotiation, or would he leave it all the same?

Stan Kasten is so openly hostile to the existence of agents and the idea that players might be able to effectively represent their own interests, so clearly resentful that the reserve clause isn't still the law of the land in MLB... I'd ask whether that's typical or is Stan particularly anti-player.

Where are things going with the draft? Will amateurs ever get their own Marvin Miller?

Does he think the owners are colluding this off-season? I still can't believe that 30 teams wouldn't offer Odalis Perez a major league deal.

James Bjork said...

I can't imagine him bad-mouthing Kasten as "anti-player" when he and Willingham are still in negotiations. Baseball can be so political, with few saying what they actually think in the privacy of their own minds. Players who let it fly (i.e. Curt Schilling) elicit grumbling and pleas to shut up. Managers who speak the truth about how badly his player(s) are performing (i.e. Frank Robinson) do not endear themselves to players. Even agents are wise to keep their mouth shut on such things so as not to be blackballed out of potential teams.

I would fully expect a bland, canned answer to that question that completely dodges it.

Steven said...

Good point. If John asks the question he should probably phrase it in a more general way, not calling out any specific exec by name, and you might get a little more telling reply.

An Briosca Mor said...
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Steven said...

Agents are paid representatives of the players. If you don't think agents should exist, that means you don't think players deserve competent representation, which, I think, is a fundamentally, virultenly, anti-player position.

Will said...

I'm kind of surprised by how well they expect the Nats to do, though BP has updated the Nats to now finishing 77-85. But even if this is the case, they're only 11 games away from the wild card, which is hardly an insurmountable challenge to overcome. A couple Derek Lowe and Randy Johnson-calibre signings would have gone a long way.

Steven said...

Dont' forget that PECOTA is inherently conservative and has a strong bent in favor of regression to the mean. In other words, a team taht loses 100 games and does nothing at all to improve will be projected by PECOTA to be better just based on the fact that the average team loses 81.

An Briosca Mor said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Steven said...

I think some players get screwed by the CBA, but if agents didn't exist all players would get screwed. Some people hate lawyers--till you need a good one. If you were a ballplayer, your agent would be your best friend.

Will said...

On closer inspection, I'm not sure what the hell is going on with this projections.
-Cristian Guzman will post career highs in AVG, OBP and SLG?
-Josh Willingham will have 33 TOTAL plate appearances?
-Austin Kearns will ~100% playing time?
-Elijah Dukes will not start?
-Nick Johnson will get 500 plate appearances?
-Wily Mo Pena will start in left? And he'll get 337 plate appearances?
-The Nats will not field anyone at 3B for ~35 plate appearances?
And that's just batting. I'm not going to go on about the missing 25 wins and 13 losses to the pitching staff.

This is really shoddy work, and I hope it's not the finished product.

Steven said...

It's not a finished product. Clay Davenport posted a blog post in Unfiltered explaining.