Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Play the "Guess Manny's Lead-Off Men" Game!

Let's play a little game. Its a game I like to call "Guess Manny's Lead-Off Men."

Below are the OBP PECOTA projections for the 17 Nationals position players who have started at least one game this season. Two of these OBPs belong to players who have batted lead-off over the last 7 games. Guess the correct two OBPs, and you win a free, year-long subscription to FJB!

Make your guesses in the comments, and be sure to tell us how to pronounce your name.
.410
.396
.386
.361
.360
.358
.355
.352
.338
.337
.336
.324
.316
.307
.288
.278
.273
  • BTW--how early does Jason Bergmann have to show up to work to get into a game? We seriously have Kip Wells, Mike Hinckley, and Julian Tavarez all ahead of him? Ah, Mike Hinckley, bless his heart. Nine walks in 34 batters faced. That'd be a 26.4% walk rate. Or, if you prefer, 11.6 walks per 9 innings. He makes Joel Hanrahan circa 2007 look like Curt Schilling. It's no longer fair to call him a LOOGY. He's a LEWGY--left-handed everybody walks guy.

13 comments:

Kenny G said...

.278 and .273

Mr. Mustache said...

It's like he wants the lead off guy to produce an out. There is no other manager in the majors past or present who would start Alex Cintron at lead off hitter tonight.

Guy McGuffin said...

Well, at least we're 5-0-1 through 8 innings over the last six games.

Steven said...

Kenny, admit it, you peeked.

phil dunton said...

The Nats have had five years to correct the lead off problem, and they can't get it done. It goes all the way back to Endy Chavez at the beginning of the 2005 season.

Grover said...

I can understand being overly rigid with your bullpen. I can understand batting Nick Johnson in the 5 spot. I can understand pulling your starters earlier than most would like to protect their arms even though your bullpen is horrid.

I don't agree with these things, but I can understand them.

However, there is no rational way to explain letting Alex Cintron lead off. There is only one possible conclusion: Manny Acta is trying to get fired.

Phil: Respectfully disagree. The Nats as a bullclub don't have a leadoff problem. They have a great one on the roster. his name is Nick Johnson. This problem is Manny's and Manny's alone.

JayB said...

I agree Manny is just about the worst Manager in Baseball when it comes to lineups and in game decisions. But what would you expect for a guy who has never managed in a league where winning is the primary focus. His prior jobs all were in Minor League baseball where player development is the priority.

dcusimano123 said...

Appros of nothing, try this:

Johnson, 1B
Guzman, SS
Dukes, CF
Dunn, LF
Zimmerman, 3B
Kearns, RF
Flores, C
Hernandez, 2B
Pitcher

Steven said...

That's a good lineup.

Here's what I would do:
Johnson, 1B
Dukes, CF
Zimmerman, 3B
Dunn, LF
Kearns, RF
Guzman, SS
Flores, C
Hernandez, 2B
Pitcher

Mr. Mustache said...

I'd swap the pitcher and AHern Steven, but that seems about ideal.

This was on rotoworld today: "The Nationals made it sound like Milledge would play center most of the time in Triple-A, but that was just talk. He's been used in left field for the most part."
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&line=260460&id=826

:(

Elan said...

im surprised by the number of people that would remove johnson from his number two post considering his success there. id rather not mess with his .480 average there. as for leadoff, its probably the hardest spot to fill. the marlins are currently experiencing the problem as bonafacio demonstrates his actual talent level, the phillies leadoff hitter has a .190 obp right now, and the braves leadoff hitter is hitting .226. when guzman comes back we'll be fine up top - i dont want to mess with johnson just to get a leadoff hitter there a week early.

Michael said...

Mr. 'Tache, by Acta purposely having the lead off man get out, he doesn't have to waste an out trying to bunt him over to second...

I'd like to put Dukes ahead of Johnson only because he's more likely to score from 1st or 2nd on a single or double and his OBP is lead off caliber, but that might be stupid conventional wisdom reeking its ugly head.

Steven said...

the #2 hole is as important as the #4 hole. You're talking about a spot in the lineup that gets 50 or so more PAs than clean-up, and it's immediately behind the best OBP guy on the team (if you're doing it right). So you put Johnson first, then Dukes and get lots of runs.