In addition to the stats presented in the post linked above, consider these numbers by year for Guzman since he came to DC:
- UZR/150 ('05, '07-'09): -2.7, -5.9. -3.7, -2.1
- Rate2 ('05, '07-'09): 84, 91, 101, 88
- Plus/Minus (I only have the '05 and '08 Fielding Bibles handy): -6, +15
Especially in the middle infield, Mike Rizzo doesn't want adequate or average defense. He wants superior defense. He wants a middle infield that will do what Nyjer Morgan did for the outfield. He's never going to get that from Guzman at shortstop. Might he get it from him at second base?
It's a good bet that any player moving from shortstop to second will play better defense. Second base is easier to play, a step easier on the Bill James defensive spectrum. Of course, he'll have to learn a new position, but all things equal, the plays are easier to make, and Guzman's defense should be better there.
How much better? To get a solid estimate, I pulled the UZR numbers for the 70 players played at least 80 innings at both shortstop and second base in the same season since 2002, the first year that UZR is available.
In just under 25,138 innings at second, these 70 players were a total 72.6 runs above average. In 27,217 innings at short, they were a total 8.3 runs below average. That probably sounds like a bigger difference than it is, since players don't play 27,000 innings per year. But in the 1350 innings a full-time player will log over 150 games or so, that's still a 4.31 run difference, a little less than half a win's worth.
Certainly not every player improved by the same amount. Maybe a third of them played better at short than second. And Guzman will be a year older. Still, it's reasonable to assume that the move from short to second is worth a little more than four runs, all things equal. If Guzman is a two to four runs below average second basemen, he won't become a top-tier second baseman, but he could improve to average or slightly above.
If you're interested, here's the full list of 70 players and their numbers (forgive the awkward formatting--lately I can't get blogger to agree with Excel very well):
| First | Last | Year | 2B Inn | 2B UZR | SS Inn | SS UZR |
| Rich | Aurilia | 2005 | 547.3 | 5.1 | 237.66 | -1.6 |
| Mike | Aviles | 2008 | 114.3 | 0 | 747.66 | 15.6 |
| Clint | Barmes | 2008 | 486 | 5.1 | 285 | -2.2 |
| Clint | Barmes | 2009 | 997.333 | 4 | 102.33 | 2.7 |
| Willie | Bloomquist | 2006 | 254 | 1.9 | 180 | 1.1 |
| Geoff | Blum | 2005 | 180 | -3.9 | 122.33 | 2.9 |
| Asdrubal | Cabrera | 2008 | 776.66 | 5.1 | 154.66 | -1.8 |
| Asdrubal | Cabrera | 2009 | 244 | -2.9 | 748 | -2.6 |
| Jamey | Carroll | 2005 | 427.66 | 3.4 | 241 | -0.9 |
| Juan | Castro | 2003 | 421.33 | 5.3 | 154 | 2 |
| Ronny | Cedeno | 2006 | 126.2 | 0.7 | 1129.66 | -1.7 |
| Alex | Cintron | 2004 | 147 | -1.2 | 1099 | -4.8 |
| Alex | Cintron | 2005 | 144.2 | -2.2 | 271 | 1.2 |
| Alex | Cora | 2002 | 153 | 0.8 | 453 | 2.9 |
| Craig | Counsell | 2007 | 195 | 2.9 | 140.66 | -0.5 |
| Craig | Counsell | 2008 | 112 | 0.6 | 185.33 | 1.9 |
| Craig | Counsell | 2009 | 369.33 | 3.7 | 177.66 | -0.4 |
| Mark | DeRosa | 2003 | 229.33 | -2.2 | 100 | 0.5 |
| Damion | Easley | 2005 | 324 | -0.8 | 215.66 | -2.4 |
| Kevin | Frandsen | 2007 | 343.33 | 2.6 | 138.33 | -1.9 |
| Luis | Gonzalez | 2005 | 579.33 | -1.1 | 132 | -2.9 |
| Bill | Hall | 2004 | 418.1 | -0.1 | 303.66 | 1.3 |
| Bill | Hall | 2005 | 185 | 0.2 | 500.33 | 1 |
| Shane | Halter | 2003 | 196 | 1.7 | 171 | 0.9 |
| Brendan | Harris | 2007 | 319.66 | -0.4 | 751.66 | -6.9 |
| Brendan | Harris | 2008 | 85.33 | -1.5 | 464.33 | -3.6 |
| Anderson | Hernandez | 2009 | 542 | 2.6 | 254.66 | -1.5 |
| Aaron | Hill | 2005 | 177.66 | 1.7 | 121 | 1.3 |
| Aaron | Hill | 2006 | 914.33 | 18.1 | 428.33 | -9.3 |
| Denny | Hocking | 2002 | 393.66 | -2.1 | 172 | -2 |
| Omar | Infante | 2004 | 871.66 | -1.5 | 188.66 | -0.9 |
| Omar | Infante | 2005 | 591.66 | -4 | 389.33 | 3.4 |
| Damian | Jackson | 2003 | 147.33 | -3.4 | 82 | -2 |
| Damian | Jackson | 2005 | 265 | 3.9 | 189.33 | -7.1 |
| Felipe | Lopez | 2007 | 373.33 | 2.4 | 927 | -9 |
| Mark | Loretta | 2007 | 201 | 2.2 | 486.66 | -5.9 |
| Julio | Lugo | 2006 | 159.33 | 0.9 | 1228.1 | -4.1 |
| Hector | Luna | 2006 | 469.66 | -5.9 | 155 | -1.9 |
| Joe | McEwing | 2003 | 357.33 | -3.6 | 242.2 | 3.5 |
| Aaron | Miles | 2006 | 649.66 | 1.6 | 298 | -3.8 |
| Aaron | Miles | 2007 | 590.66 | 0.7 | 301 | -7.7 |
| Aaron | Miles | 2008 | 499.66 | 0.7 | 172.33 | 1.6 |
| Abraham | Nunez | 2002 | 336 | 0.7 | 143.66 | 0.1 |
| Abraham | Nunez | 2003 | 526.66 | 5.7 | 149.66 | -2.1 |
| Abraham | Nunez | 2005 | 132 | 0.3 | 91 | -1.7 |
| Augie | Ojeda | 2008 | 286 | 4.5 | 126.66 | 2.1 |
| Neifi | Perez | 2003 | 371.66 | 6.6 | 311 | 5.8 |
| Neifi | Perez | 2004 | 302.66 | 5.3 | 560.33 | 3.7 |
| Neifi | Perez | 2005 | 160 | -2.6 | 1063.33 | 10.5 |
| Neifi | Perez | 2006 | 446 | 4 | 171.2 | 0.6 |
| Nick | Punto | 2005 | 114.66 | -0.9 | 146.66 | 4.3 |
| Nick | Punto | 2006 | 172.33 | -1.5 | 210.66 | 5.7 |
| Nick | Punto | 2007 | 215.66 | 1.7 | 530.66 | 7.5 |
| Nick | Punto | 2009 | 436.33 | 2.7 | 491 | 1.6 |
| Alexei | Ramirez | 2008 | 1017.33 | -8.3 | 1258.66 | 4.1 |
| Brendan | Ryan | 2009 | 95.2 | 1.7 | 793.66 | 12.4 |
| Freddy | Sanchez | 2006 | 165.33 | 0.4 | 240 | -2.5 |
| Ramon | Santiago | 2003 | 461 | -6.8 | 724 | -4.3 |
| Marco | Scutaro | 2004 | 986.66 | -6.2 | 113.33 | -2.5 |
| Marco | Scutaro | 2005 | 267.66 | 5.6 | 663 | -2.4 |
| Marco | Scutaro | 2006 | 301.66 | 3.2 | 542.66 | -12.8 |
| Marco | Scutaro | 2008 | 354.33 | -1.4 | 472.33 | 7.6 |
| Ryan | Theriot | 2007 | 236 | 4.3 | 859 | 4.1 |
| Juan | Uribe | 2004 | 625.66 | 4.6 | 287.33 | -0.9 |
| Juan | Uribe | 2009 | 299.33 | 3.4 | 273.66 | -2 |
| Ramon | Vazquez | 2002 | 574 | -0.4 | 256 | 2.3 |
| Jose | Vizcaino | 2002 | 181.33 | 1.2 | 429.33 | 5 |
| Jose | Vizcaino | 2004 | 173.66 | 1.2 | 455.33 | 2.6 |
| Josh | Wilson | 2007 | 182 | 0.4 | 453.66 | -7.1 |
| Tony | Womack | 2003 | 137.33 | 2.1 | 557.33 | -4.4 |
7 comments:
This makes sense, as you'd think most hitters are right-handed, and if they were pulling the ball, the SS and 3B would be getting the most chances and most difficult plays.
It's not really about chances. It's about the throw to first being easier, and then because the throw is shorter, range can be less. So for both range and arm less is demanded of the 2B position than SS.
Of course it should be noted that UZR is benchmarked against the average in MLB. So if there was a wave of great fielding SS's in baseball this year and Guzzy's fielding stayed the same, his UZR would go down. That's one reason to be cautious of small trend deviations.
The sad thing is that I've always felt that Guzmans arm has always been strong. He can drop back and play Belliard style short right field/second base but it won't mask the fact that a ball hit near him still has a good chance of getting by. What's more, right now he has Zimmerman to his right meaning he can play a bit tighter on the base.
At 2nd next year he will have to compensate for Dunn. Dunn and Guzman on the same side of the infield is a waste. Add to this the fact that Guzman and an offensively productive second baseman is a passable offense. Guzman and a defensive minded short stop means you have two holes in your order, as there is no need to throw Guzman a strike anymore.
In my opinion you eat his salary and get a trade of some sort, or eat his salary and get a spare roster spot.
Given Guz lack of OBP what would a move to 2B do for his WARP?
On the same note, how much above his body weight would Desmond have to hit to be better than Guz at SS?
Final question, (which is really more of a Brian subject), assuming Espinoza is MLB ready by 2011 who is the better fit at SS, he or Desmond. All that assumes they won't go to the FA market for 2B or SS before then - and I'm hoping they will save that cash to grab Brandon Webb if he becomes a FA or one more veteran SP not named Livan Hernandez.
I forget exactly what goes into the BP WARP stat, as opposed to Tango's WAR. But basically the move would add a bit less than half a win, based on this.
His OBP will continue to track with his BABIP (with a lot of fluctuation), but because his contact rates are so good he can still put up good OBP numbers as he did in 07 and 08. He just never walks, so it's all on the vagaries of balls in play rates.
Re: Desmond--hard to say. The errors really hurt his fielding value. If he could eliminate that, he'd probably be as valuable right now overall. The bat also is hard to gauge given that he's had such a break-out this year. Will that continue or regress? HOw much was the hamate hurting him before? What happens the second time through the league. Desmond could be a lot better or he could be a lot worse. (He'll certainly be cheaper though, and Guzman has no chance to get a lot better.)
I'd say the most reasonable projection for Desmond is a 2-3 year career as a below-average starter and another 3-4 as a super-sub.
Re: Espinosa and Desmond--probably neither really gives you what you wan starting, but who knows. Espinosa's a long way away yet.
I expect we'll see Guzman and Polanco, Everett, or Jack Wilson starting next year on opening day.
Steven
Not a lot of youth in you guesses. And a fair bit of mediocrity.
No hope of a trade for some slick fielding youngster? Given it is apparently one of the only pieces Rizzo thinks he is going to trade for you think that we could get something decent.
Bowden overpaid for Guzman, not once, but twice. One of Bodes major weaknesses was extending the contracts of less than mediocre players when they were on hot streaks. (Meat Hook Young is the best example.)
I'd favor giving the SS job to Desmond, provided he can continue to hit anywhere near the level he has shown this year, and going with a new second basemen. Getting rid of Guzman is going to require giving him away and paying a good portion of his eye watering salary.
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