Friday, February 19, 2010

Updated Nationals Wins Above Replacement Projection

Just a couple changes, the big one being giving a bunch of Ross Detwiler's innings to Chien Ming-Wang. Wang's projection (like Olsen's) are optimistic given their health, but with these numbers, you get a 76-win projection. Cue the "I'll take that!" comments.

C Jesus Flores 40% .324 0.0 1.1
C Ivan Rodriguez 60% .290 0.0 0.5
1B Adam Dunn 65% .378 -8.4 1.8
1B Mike Morse 35% .343 0.3 0.5
2B Adam Kennedy 75% .313 1.8 1.0
2B Willie Harris 25% .328 -1.1 0.5
SS Cristian Guzman 75% .316 -2.0 1.2
SS Ian Desmond 25% .324 -4.5 0.5
3B Ryan Zimmerman 85% .379 10.1 5.2
3B Ian Desmond 15% .324 0.0 0.3
RF Elijah Dukes 75% .351 1.9 2.0
RF Mike Morse 25% .343 -0.3 0.5
CF Nyjer Morgan 85% .321 8.5 2.1
CF Willie Harris 15% .328 -0.6 0.3
LF Josh Willingham 80% .361 -6.0 2.8
LF Adam Dunn 20% .378 -10.8 0.6



SP Jason Marquis 180 4.46 2.1
SP John Lannan 170 4.82 1.3
SP Craig Stammen 120 4.96 0.7
SP Garrett Mock 120 4.28 1.6
SP J.D. Martin 120 4.77 1.0
SP Scott Olsen 80 5.12 0.3
SP Chien-Ming Wang 70 3.94 1.2
SP Ross Detwiler 40 4.71 0.3
SP Stephen Strasburg 40 4.18 0.6
RP Matt Capps 65 3.82 0.5
RP Brian Bruney 50 4.35 0.1
RP Tyler Clippard 65 4.20 0.2
RP Tyler Walker 50 4.29 0.1
RP Sean Burnett 55 4.63 -0.1
RP Jason Bergmann 60 4.47 0.0
RP Miguel Batista 30 4.86 -0.1
RP Eddie Guardado 40 4.94 -0.2
RP Collin Balester 50 5.06 -0.3
RP Drew Storen 20 5.88 -0.3
Total 1425 9.0


Positively Half St. said...

I'll take that.

Burnett is -0.1 WAR? Guess it's time for him to lose his arbitration case.

Steven said...

OK--ignore the comments I deleted before. The numbers are right and current. These are the fielding independent projections from CHONE. He has Burnett at 4.63 and 56 IP. A replacement level reliever has a 4.5 FIP. So he's a bit below replacement by this measure.

Of course, the sample sizes are small, and how he's used matters. So take it with a bit of a grain of salt. The projections are a lot more useful in the aggregate than at the granular.

Positively Half St. said...

Well, there it is. Burnett did in fact lose his arbitration case. Hopefully our bullpen will take their frustrations out on the opposition.

niggledork said...

Ian Desmond at 3B... really?

Steven said...

@niggle--I guess. Who do you think backs up Zimm? Harris? Maybe. For the purposes of the projection it hardly matters, but the team is saying they want to use Desmond as a utility guy, and he certainly has the arm for 3B.

An Briosca Mor said...

How does The Winter of Bruney's Discontent play into your calculations? How many wins did Rizzo cost the team by putting him in his place at the arb hearing?

Steven said...

As far as I know, CHONE doesn't factor in emotional damage caused by arbitration hearings. ;-)

Sasskuash said...

1) I thought Kennedy was capable of playing 3B when RZimm needs a rest and/or in case of injury? Could be wrong about that.

2) I have not read this anywhere, but would it make sense to move Desmond to 2B? You could keep him in Syracuse for a month or 2 until he is comfortable at the position, and then (if he sticks) you have a long-term solution at 2B, your not blocking Espinosa at SS in a year or 2, and you have a player who is more versitile to play multiple positions in the future. Plus, it's much easier to justify making Kennedy ($1.25 mill salary) as a backup than Guzman ($8 mill salary) when the Learners start whining to Rizzo about spending too much money. It makes sense to me, I wonder if this is on the team's mind too?

Steven said...

Kennedy played third a bunch last year, yes. That's a possibility.

Wally said...

I like the idea of Desmond for 2b, might help with his throwing problems, although now that salaries are committed, they are sunk costs and I hope that does not drive the decision of who plays

Seattle Steve said...

As someone who's seen Morse play a few games and witnessed his injury playing "defense" in the outfield in Seattle...I seriously doubt you'll see 1 WAR from him.

The day Morse got injured he'd been playing such horrid defense I secretly hoped he'd get hurt. Then he did. I'm still a little sick about it.