I had a nice little back and forth with the folks over at Crashburn Alley, one of the better Phillies team sites, about the team on the other end of the NL East standings. Check it out here.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
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5 comments:
Ross Detwiler is not a 5th starter at best. The guy had a 3.86 FIP last year which wasn't too far off what Tommy Hanson had last season. He's a solid mid-rotation starter assuming he is healthy. Lefties who throw in the 90's typically aren't 5th starters.
Eh, "fifth starter at best" is probably a little harsh, but I don't actually think he's going to make it as a starter at all, so the fact that I could imagine him possibly being better than that isn't much.
Your Tommy Hanson comp is absurd.
I'm not saying he is on Hanson's level, but his FIP was literally close to Hanson's for most of the season. If you want relevant comparisons, here are some pitchers with 0.10 FIP points of Detwiler:
Oswalt
Floyd
Santana
Scherzer
Dempster
Cain
Detwiler's FIP was better than the last 3 names on the list. He put up solid numbers in AA and AAA last year. I know you are an advanced stats guy, but why do you ignore his solid FIP or the fact that his BABIP and Strand rates were out of the norm but don't do the same for guys like John Lannan?
Its going to be interesting from a minor league perspective. At the MLB level Matt Capps looks to continue where he left off in Pittsburgh but then there's the nasty right hander who seems to have a huge competitive streak in Bruney. If todays effort by the pitchers (14K against 2 BB in 18 innings) is a sign of things to come you have to assume they both Storen and Strasburg get to start off in Potomac/Harrisburg.
The Nats send 6-8 decent, and reasonably aged left-handed relief pitchers to Syracuse and Harrisburg. New pitcher Rafael Martin, a righty among them. Then there's Storen.
Olsen and Chico are in limbo. Have to assume they get rehab starts in the minors early on. Perhaps both become relievers ... but they have so many left-handed relievers now?
The SP rotation in Harrisburg starts off with Arneson and Thompson. Assume Detwiler joins them to rehab along with Wang. The Syracuse rotation has Balester and Bradley Meyers to start off.
Perhaps Potomac will be the most interesting?
Nathaniel Karns may be the interesting "sleeper". He is reported to have a 97 mph fastball. He may be situated there ... I think Trevor Holder may end up surprising some people if he can relearn how to pitch ... he throws strikes but they are too high too many pitches.
Where will Destin Hood, Michael Burgess, Mike Daniel, and Eury Perez be by June? How about Norris, Espinosa and Lombardozzi?
Will Smoker and Colton Willlems (along with McGeary) remain forever ensconced in low A?
What about Juan Jaime another fireballer?
Goessling is reporting that Dukes was just released, wtf?
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