Sunday, April 4, 2010

FJB's Official 2010 Big Predictions Post

Happy Opening Day Eve! Real games tonight, which means predictions are due. Here's what I'm seeing in the crystal ball for 2010:
  • Garrett Mock, Willie Harris and Alberto Gonzalez will be better than they were last year.
  • Nyjer Morgan and Josh Willingham will be worse.
  • Cristian Guzman will get 550 at bats.
  • Ryan Zimmerman will again win the gold glove and silver slugger.
  • Stephen Strasburg will make 20 starts and will not disappoint.
  • Adam Dunn or Josh Willingham will miss extended time with injury.
  • Aaron Thompson will end the year with more Wins Above Replacement than Chien-Ming Wang.
  • Matt Capps will lose the closer job at some point, compiling an ERA over 4.00, but he will get it back and finish the season with the most saves on the team.
  • Chris Coste will get as many at bats as Josh Bard did last year.
  • The Nationals will not pay the highest draft bonus in the 2010 draft.
  • On September 1, Tyler Walker and Miguel Batista will be former Nationals.
  • Brian Bruney will finish the season with an ERA over 5.00.
  • Ian Desmond will take some lumps, but at the end of the day, he'll solidify his role as the starting shortstop for 2011.
  • Manny Acta's Indians will finish over .500.
  • Cy Youngs: Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez
  • MVPs: Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez
  • Rookies of the Year: Stephen Strasburg and Brian Matusz
  • NL playoff teams: Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Rockies
  • AL playoff teams: Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, Yankees
  • World Series: Red Sox over the Dodgers
  • And Nationals record: 68-94.
On the last prediction, it's certainly possible that they're better than this, but it's rare for any team to see a 10-win jump from one year to the next. I'm not sold on the bullpen, I don't think they've done enough to improve the fielding. Their offense was just average last year, will almost every key perfomer performed at a peak level. Probably most concerning is that there are just too many spots on the roster where they don't have a plan B. If they lose Dunn, Willingham, Morgan, or god forbid Zimmerman for any period of time, they don't have even replacement-level options.


Anonymous said...

The only one I have problems with is that a Manny Acta led team will finish over .500. That won't ever happen. That guy is not a good manager. At least Jim Riggleman inspires confidence in me because he doesn't make as many boneheaded decisions as Manny Acta does.

Anonymous said...

Batting Guzman 2nd 550 times a guy who hates to walk and so has a miserable OBP isn't boneheaded? Well if that isn't boneheaded then what is?

John O'Connor said...

The prediction that Guzman will have 550 at bats seemed nutty to me until I realized that he only needs about 558 plate appearances to get there.

Hondo69 said...

No way will Acta have a winning record with that pitching staff. The Nationals wtll win at least 74 games and the Indians will lose 95+ and will finish LAST in the AL Central behind the Royals!

Shraf said...

Cubs? Really? They are awful

Steven said...

I like the Cubs' starting pitching. You can hide a weak bullpen when you have 3 200 IP starters. They have a lot of age on their hitters, but I think they still have enough. And I think Piniella knows this is a last chance.

The Indians aren't good, but I think they have enough offense to be .500, and Manny's short hook will work well with the pitching staff they have. It's a bit of a long-shot prediction, but I figured I had to throw a few long-shots in there. I could predict good ratings on ESPN for the Yankees-Red Sox opener, but where's the fun in that?

JayB said...

"I like the Cubs' starting pitching. You can hide a weak bullpen when you have 3 200 IP starters"......I must have missed these pitchers when you "educated" me on projecting 200 innings for pitchers a few posts back.

Wally said...

Can we add some of our own? I'll take that as a yes.
-Stammen makes 30 starts with a FIP under 4.50
-Dunn gets traded
-Hammer hits 30 HRs
-Bruney saves 20+ games
Desmond hits .270/.330/.450 with 20+ errors
-Morgan plays 120 games
-Neither Mock nor Olsen finish the year in the Nats organization
-Wang makes less than 10 starts with a FIP over 5.00

Steven said...

Wait, the Nats will NOT have the highest draft bonus this year, even though they have the first pick? Do they pass on Bryce Harper or does he not sign for as much as someone else?