As a reminder, I'm using Tom Tango's system for calculating WAR, plugging in performance projections from CHONE, available at baseballprojection.com, and the playing time guesstimates are from me.
First, the hitters, then pitchers:
| Pos | Name | PT | wOBA | FRAA | WAR |
| C | Ivan Rodriguez | 60% | .290 | 0.0 | 0.47 |
| C | Jesus Flores | 20% | .324 | 0.0 | 0.57 |
| C | Wil Nieves | 20% | .284 | 0.0 | 0.08 |
| 1B | Adam Dunn | 85% | .378 | -8.4 | 2.34 |
| 1B | Mike Morse | 15% | .343 | 0.3 | 0.23 |
| 2B | Adam Kennedy | 75% | .313 | 1.8 | 1.00 |
| 2B | Cristian Guzman | 25% | .316 | 0.0 | 0.34 |
| SS | Ian Desmond | 65% | .324 | -4.5 | 1.22 |
| SS | Cristian Guzman | 35% | .316 | -2.0 | 0.58 |
| 3B | Ryan Zimmerman | 85% | .379 | 10.1 | 5.22 |
| 3B | Cristian Guzman | 15% | .316 | 0.0 | 0.20 |
| RF | Willie Harris | 50% | .328 | 0.0 | 0.53 |
| RF | Willy Taveras | 35% | .300 | 0.0 | -0.22 |
| RF | Mike Morse | 15% | .343 | -0.3 | 0.29 |
| CF | Nyjer Morgan | 85% | .321 | 8.5 | 2.11 |
| CF | Willie Harris | 15% | .328 | -0.6 | 0.30 |
| LF | Josh Willingham | 85% | .361 | -6.0 | 2.94 |
| LF | Mike Morse | 15% | .343 | 0.0 | 0.30 |
|
| Total |
|
|
| 18.51 |
|
|
| IP | nERA | WAR |
| SP | Jason Marquis | 180 | 4.73 | 1.5 |
| SP | John Lannan | 170 | 4.58 | 1.7 |
| SP | Livan Hernandez | 120 | 5.05 | 0.6 |
| SP | Craig Stammen | 120 | 5.19 | 0.4 |
| SP | Garrett Mock | 100 | 4.69 | 0.9 |
| SP | Scott Olsen | 90 | 5.33 | 0.2 |
| SP | J.D. Martin | 70 | 4.68 | 0.6 |
| SP | Chien-Ming Wang | 50 | 3.93 | 0.9 |
| SP | Ross Detwiler | 50 | 4.97 | 0.3 |
| SP | Stephen Strasburg | 50 | 4.22 | 0.7 |
| RP | Matt Capps | 65 | 4.02 | 0.3 |
| RP | Tyler Clippard | 65 | 4.02 | 0.3 |
| RP | Jason Bergmann | 60 | 4.30 | 0.1 |
| RP | Brian Bruney | 55 | 4.15 | 0.2 |
| RP | Sean Burnett | 55 | 4.63 | -0.1 |
| RP | Miguel Batista | 50 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| RP | Tyler Walker | 40 | 4.11 | 0.2 |
| RP | Drew Storen | 40 | 6.12 | -0.7 |
|
| Total | 1430 |
| 7.7 |
9 comments:
I have a bet with a friend of mine on the Orioles-Nats win totals, I've got Nats +5. I'm thinking that should be a lock.
Lannan will likely pitch more than 170 innings. I know you don't like to admit it but he is good enough to be a 200 inning 4.00 ERA guy.
Strasbug will pitch more than 50 innings or they really miss used his limited innings for the year.
Flores will not catch this year if I was doing predictions of time.
Other than those I agree with the playing time estimates as we stand now. Rizzo has to make some trades to fix RF and Catching but who knows when those will come.
Lannan's innings have nothing to do with what I "want to admit."
A projection exercise like this is about projecting the most likely outcome for each player, not making hopeful (or pessimistic) predictions. Envision a bell-curve of potential outcomes. There's probably a 5% chance that Lannan is the Cy Young winner, and maybe a 5% chance that he completely craters. The question here is what's the mid-point most likely outcome, the top of the bell curve. I could see bumping it to 180-185, but certainly not over 200.
Some of these players will get hurt. You have to account for that inevitability, and if you project every player assuming total health, you're not making reasonable overall assumptions.
Remember, only 35 pitchers threw 200 innings last year, and less than half of those also did it the year before. So by definition it's a rare feat. Statistically, you don't project rare feats as most likely outcomes. You have to factor in some regression to the mean, or else you end up with junk.
That's why if you look at all the different projection systems out there--PECOTA, CHONE, ZIPS, Bill James, Marcel--none of them project Lannan over 200 innings. It's why PECOTA projects only 12 pitchers in all of baseball with more than 200 innings:
Beckett, Josh
Greinke, Zack
Halladay, Roy
Hamels, Cole
Haren, Dan
Hernandez, Felix
Jimenez, Ubaldo
Lee, Cliff
Lester, Jon
Lincecum, Tim
Verlander, Justin
Wainwright, Adam
It's also why you almost never get a 100-loss team with a method like this. 100 loss teams are rare, so by definition, those teams get regressed to mid-90s projections. And for people who look at this and say, "I'll take 73 wins," you have to remember that I'm saying there's a 49.9% chance that you'll get at least a little worse than that. (And there's a 49.9% chance that you'll get better.) But what's the relative potential upside? How low could the bottom fall, if the bottom falls out? That's where you start thinking about depth, potential for key players falling far short of expectations, the capacity of this particular group to deal with adversity and/or adjust to unforeseen problems.
I'll have personal *predictions* Monday.
You have to go (as I do) with what your system(s) of choice tell you.
Still, were I tempted to tweak, and I am, I'd ratchet up Burnett's projection and ratchet down Storen's. Burnett was more than a tad lucky last season, and nothing I've seen or heard this spring makes me think Storen will come in over 5.
Which is a wash, I'll grant you.
Yeah, I could certainly see that.
Mock is 5th stater according to Ladsen.
The projected innings for Livan, Mock, and Olsen are too high. If I had to bet, at least 2 of them get permanently replaced by June.
Although these projections are reasonable (with the exception of Storen), in predicting the Nat's total wins, you'll have to adjust downward to account for the fact that the Nats will likely trade two of their best WAR players - Dunn and Willingham - before August. Factoring that in, I see a win total in the (sigh) 60s. Again.
Here's to another season of drinking heavily at the Red Loft.
You all should pick up Balentien when the Reds waive him. That would really help out your right field situation.
Post a Comment