New Podcast: Mid-Season Report Card

Brian from NFA and I discuss the Nationals first half and give out position-by-position grades in the latest Natmosphere in your Ear podcast.

Time for Desmond to Go Down

Going into the season, Ian Desmond was a source of hope for the Nationals. A team that has developed exactly one starting-caliber position player in the last five years had a true talent on their hands, perhaps ready to break through. He earned the starting shortstop job, and if the team was to exceed expectations, Desmond was one of the guys who could make it happen.

Things haven't gone as planned. His batting line is down to a woeful .249 / .289 / .376, putting him solidly in Yuniesky Betancourt territory. The problem is that his strike zone discipline has badly regressed. He's walking in just 4.6% of plate appearances, and he's swinging at 34.9% of pitches out of the strike zone. That's Wily Mo Pena territory. And since he's seeing so many fewer hitters counts, the burst in power that we saw from him over the last two years has disappeared.

And then there are the errors. After last night's disastrous play in the seventh, in which he booted an easy, custom-made double play with two runners on, costing Stephen Strasburg a seventh shutout inning and leading to a nightmarish 5-run inning, Desmond now has a ridiculous 19 on the year. No one else has more than 13. Last year's league leader in errors among shortstops was Orlando Cabrera, with 25 for the whole season.

The advanced metrics say that he's still making up for most of that with his arm and range, and a better first-baseman would have bailed him out on at least a couple of his throwing errors. But MLB players just can't botch the routine play as often as Desmond does. He has to do better.

Rizzo has given Desmond an awful lot of rope this season, but he's regressing badly in every phase of the game. The reason the minor leagues are there is to give guys a place to fix problems like that outside the glare of MLB. So it would make a lot of sense to let him go down to Syracuse and work things out there. If he can regain his command of the strikezone and reduce the number of errors, then the team could bring him back again for August and September.

But if they send Desmond down, then it's not really clear who becomes the everyday shortstop. Guzman's only played 14 games there this year, and I'm not totally convinced his shoulder is healthy enough to allow him to play there every day. After that, you're looking at a lot of Alberto Gonzalez, and we know how that goes. And of course Adam Kennedy gets pressed back into every day service, and he's quietly been having a miserable season also, hitting .238 / .317 / .319 with declining range and too many errors himself.

I worried going into the season that if Desmond didn't pan out that they were dangerously exposed in the middle-infield, and now we're seeing that.

So Rizzo might have to make a deal. Aki Iwamura totally cratered in Pittsburgh, but it couldn't hurt to throw a bag of balls to the Pirates to see what he can do. Mike Fontenot is a forgotten man in Chicago. Then there's a perennial trade target Dan Uggla, who I'm sure could be had for a discount, as long as you take all the salary (and maybe more), but he probably doesn't make sense for the Nationals. And then with the injuries in Anaheim and Boston, there's suddenly a lot of competition for middle-infielders.

Regardless, the top priority should be Desmond's development, and he's not getting any better in DC. He needs to be in the minors to fix his basic problems.

Edwin Jackson and Pitch Counts

Will Carroll uses the occasion of Edwin Jackson's 149-pitch no-hitter to make a good point, which is a worthy quick read for anyone who is interested in the development of young pitchers and injury prevention.

Maybe A.J. Hinch lost his clicker or listened to John Smoltz. Maybe he chose history over health. We're going to hear every variation, from "about time we got rid of the pitch count police" to "what was he thinking?!" when it comes to Jackson's 149-pitch no-hitter. Jackson is not "young" anymore, and he's had a couple solid years after struggling to establish himself. So does this announce his presence or the end of his career? The simple fact is we won't know. If Jackson has a good outing next time, we still won't know. If he has a terrible outing next time, we still won't know. If he makes it through the season, we won't know. If you're sensing a theme, it's that despite all the money we're putting into pitching, we still don't know much about how the body deals with that activity. We measure pitch counts because it's an easy, consistent proxy for fatigue. If there's any exception to the rule about not talking to a pitcher during a no-hitter, we saw it this weekend as Ken Crenshaw spoke to Jackson a couple times. He might have said "want more Gatorade?" but Crenshaw is one of the more advanced and well thought of athletic trainers in the business. Still, there's no way for Crenshaw or any other trainer to objectively measure the in-game fatigue of a pitcher. Some use subjective testing, what trainers call "putting their hands on" and that's valid, but difficult. The ATC is trusting his senses and his memory, trying to compare something from minutes or weeks ago. As good as Crenshaw or someone like Mike Reinold of the Red Sox may be, they can't be perfect. There are handheld devices that could be used to measure, but as far as I know, no team is doing so. No team is using motion capture to test players' in-season fatigue and mechanical efficiency. Baseball is leaving its million-dollar investments on the field using only educated guesswork and gut feelings to protect them. Whether or not Jackson threw too many pitches is a symptom, not the problem.

Rizzo's Biggest Mistake

This past offseason, it was pretty obvious that Mike Rizzo was going to add at least one groundballing veteran innings-eater. It made sense: the team's pitching was terrible, and they needed to do something to reduce the number of times that Stephen Strasburg pitched with a fried bullpen.

And there were several reasonably priced choices available: Jason Marquis, Jon Garland, Braden Looper, Joel Piniero, Brett Myers, Jarrod Washburn, and Brad Penny were the top names, after the true headliners, John Lackey and Randy Wolf.

Well, we all know what happened. Rizzo went aggressively after Marquis gave him two years and $15 million as one of the earliest big free agent signings of the off-season. And after 8.1 innings and 19 earned runs, Marquis went to the DL.

In the meantime, several of the guys Rizzo passed over have done much better, and some for much less:

• Garland (1 year/$5.3M): 91 IP, 3.26 ERA in San Diego
• Myers (1 year/$5.1M): 101.1 IP, 3.20 ERA in Houston
  
• Piniero: (2 years/$16M): 98.1 IP, 4.21 ERA in Anaheim
  
• Penny (1 year/$7.5M): 55.2 IP, 3.23 ERA in St. Louis
  

Hindsight, as ever, is 20/20, and injuries are part of life. But on the other hand, even if Marquis had been totally healthy it's hard to imagine him providing enough value to justify passing over someone like Jon Garland.

For a team desperately in need of a starting pitcher as they go through a classic June swoon, Rizzo's decision to go after Jason Marquis stands as one of the biggest mistakes of his young regime.

Capps with a 3-Run Lead

Tonight against Kansas City, the Nationals led 4-1 going into the top of the ninth. Due up: Jose Guillen (117 OPS+), Alberto Callaspo (96), the pitcher (Wilson Betemit pinch hit), Yuniesky Betancourt (90), Chris Getz (42), Scott Podsednik (94), and Jason Kendall (74).

At that moment, the Nationals win probability was over 98%. If you factored in the ability of the hitters due up, that number would be even higher.

Now, if you watched, you know that Capps loaded the bases with one out and allowed two runs before it was all over. It kinda got too close for comfort, but there was no need to use an ace reliever to get the job done. There are a lot of pitchers who could get three outs with a three run lead against that Royals line-up.

Tyler Walker was up and ready, and since Capps was already up to 33 appearances on the season and had pitched the night before, why not let the other guy pick up the easy save?

We all know that the reason Capps came in there was because it was a "save situation." It's the silly definition of what constitutes a save that dictates the manager's decision, not any real thinking.

It's been a long time since the Nationals had enough save opportunities and a good enough closer to make this particular complaint. But it would have been better for the Nationals long-term to let Walker pitch the ninth and use Capps only in the event that the game got close.

Accountability or Disloyalty?

I'll be the first to admit I haven't watched John Lannan's starts very closely recently. Tonight I'm going to try to watch some of starts that I only heard on Charlie and Dave, and if I don't fall asleep I'll share more thoughts.

But my first gut reaction to like Mike Rizzo's decision to demote Lannan to AA was not good. The first thing I thought of was Steven Shell ("I didn't like his whole aura on the mound."). Then I thought of Daniel Cabrera ("I was tired of watching him."). And then I thought of Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge.

In each of those cases, it was reasonable that Rizzo pulled the plug when he did. But in each case, the way he did it left you with the feeling that, Trump-like, he enjoys saying "you're fired" a little too much. And if the players in the clubhouse thinks the guy in charge doesn't really care about them, that's not good. No one ever shed a tear for Milledge or Cabrera, but Lannan is different.

Of course, Rizzo doesn't shy away from his willingness to use a quick hook when a guy doesn't perform. He brags about his commitment to "performance-based accountability." I like Rizzo, and generally I think it's good that he acts decisively and attacks problems.

But there's a pretty clear line between tough-love accountability and "what have you done for me lately" ingratitude. I'm worried Rizzo might have crossed it.

Jim Riggleman was right when he said Lannan had earned a lot of leash. For two years, with a terrible defense behind him, little run support, and a daily helping of media mockery (or indifference), he took the ball and most of the time he gave his team a chance to win. And last year, he went 206 innings with a 3.88 ERA. Only 21 other pitchers in all of MLB did that, and they were mostly perennial all-stars.

Of course, he's never been a lights-out pitcher. He's gotten by on poise, consistency, and (yes) a touch of luck. And I was always one of the first to argue that he'd probably never do what he did in 2009 again. The team really never should have expected much more than replacement level from a pitcher who strikes out fewer than 4 per 9, regardless of how well he keeps the ball in the yard.

This year, his mysterious ability to keep his BABIP lower than anyone else in baseball finally, predictably, abandoned him. By far the biggest difference between last year and this year was that his BABIP allowed went from a lucky .276 to an unlucky .341. That's enough to easily increase a pitcher's ERA by a run or more.

But he hasn't just been unlucky. He's been worse. His low strikeout rate fell to 2.88, which is what you might expect from a position player on the mound. No one in all of baseball with 20 or more IP in 2009 stuck out batters so infrequently. Meanwhile his walk rate rose to 4.20, giving him a strikeout to walk rate of... oh nevermind. It's been ugly.

Still, I cringed when this quote from Rizzo popped up on Ben Goessling's blog: "Psychologically, I think that he was very worried about that he wasn't letting his teammates down. He wasn't giving his teammates a chance to win games and stuff like that. Whenever you get that kind of mindset, I think it was a good time for him to take a step back, get himself together and go down there and get with a guy he's comfortable with and iron some things out and get back up here."

You can say a lot of things about John Lannan, but a mental toughness critique is a little hard to swallow. Remember, this is the guy who in his third major league start, he faced Barry Bonds with the whole world watching while Bonds was sitting on 755 home runs. He never backed down and held Bonds to a foul-out, walk, GDP, and a dramatic seventh inning K with two outs and a runner on.

And what's the deal with Lannan being more comfortable with the AA coaches than Steve McCatty and Jim Riggleman? If Lannan's so much more comfortable with Randy Tomlin, maybe Tomlin should be in DC, instead of sending Lannan to Harrisburg.

I also thought this was a little chicken shit: "More importantly, we need a guy up who gives us the best chance to win every fifth day. It wasn't John at this point in time. That was the decision we made."

Besides the passive voice, I just don't buy that we have a better chance to win with J.D. Martin, Craig Stammen, Luis Atilano or whoever else Rizzo's going to find in his grab bag of ground-balling soft-tossers.

Anyway, forgive the rambling incoherence of this post. I guess in the end I can't really argue that much with the substance of this decision. Lannan had a lot of rope, but he used a lot of rope.

But I'll tell you what. There's no other pitcher on the team I care about enough to stay up late and re-watch them getting pummeled just to try to understand what's going on. For Lannan, I will.

* * *

Just got done watching Lannan's 4+ innings against the White Sox yesterday. The problem is easy to see, and you don't need fancy Pitch F/X tracking. He left the ball up in the zone way too much, and honestly he was probably lucky not to have given up more extra base hits than he did. Viciedo smashed what should have been a double in the second inning, if not for a really fantastic play by Nyjer Morgan. And Alex Rios should have had a two-run bomb in the third on a line-out to Josh Willingham.

Still, he got 9 groundball outs, showing that when he hit his spots, he was the same guy as ever. I didn't see much evidence of this talk that his sinker isn't sinking. He may have lost a bit of movement--he thinks he has--but you don't get 9 groundball outs without sink. Besides, he could have all the sink in the world, and an 88 mph pitch in the upper half of the strike zone is going to get hit.

I might have let him keep battling yesterday if I was Riggleman--especially if he was pitching for his job. Yeah, 11 hits is ugly in the box score, but the last pitch he threw was a good one, resulting in a seeing eye grounder from Paul Konerko. He's got as good a shot as anyone at getting a ground ball double play, and Miguel Batista sure isn't any better than Lannan.

And the thing with Lannan is that he's always had the ability to bear down and correct in the middle of a game. He's always been a guy who might lose his command for a batter or two, then find his release point again and cruise. He doesn't get rattled, and his smooth, easy delivery is his best asset.

Anyway, I'm still not convinced that this move helps us win in the short term or that Lannan will be any better off "finding himself" in AA than he is here. And it really does make you wonder, with several pitchers getting healthy, how many more shots Lannan will get.

Repeat after me: the Nationals Are Sellers, the Nationals Are Sellers

There's been a lot of talk lately about the Nationals as buyers at mid-season this year, potentially making moves for a starting pitcher like Roy Oswalt or a bat.

The team's recent skid may have come just in time to remind this front office that they are not really that close to being a contender and should be focused, when possible, in turning current value into future value.

There's certainly a chance that the Nationals make the playoffs in 2011. And if you have a chance at the playoffs, then you have a chance to win it all. If you're thinking as a fan, then by all means, root for that.

But management's job is to look at the situation without red-colored glasses and understand that while it's possible that the Nationals could contend sometime soon, that they probably won't. In fact if I had to bet on next season's record right now, I wouldn't put their win total any higher than 75-76.

Just look at the players who have contributed this year. Their top value performers have been Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, and Josh Willingham. All of them could maintain their current level of performance next year, but chances are as a group they will either plateau or decline at least a bit. And of course Dunn's contract is up. Willingham becomes a free agent the year after that. Only Zimmerman might possibly have another level in him, and that's a lot to expect from a player who's been one of the most valuable position players in the NL over the last 18 months.

On the pitching staff, they have a true ace in Stephen Strasburg. His value should only increase. Jordan Zimmermann could return from Tommy John surgery and pick up where he left off--which might make up for Livan Hernandez coming back to earth.

After that, it's all a wash. There are no more big time prospects in the system who can expected to be major players in 2011, and by 2012 Willingham and Dunn will both be entering their mid-30s, if they're still with the team at all.

So while it's not popular to say so around these parts, the Nationals should be shopping their most valuable trading chips right now. That means Dunn, Willingham, Matt Capps, and if anyone wants to buy in, Ivan Rodriguez, Cristian Guzman, and Livan Hernandez. Either because of age or contracts, those guys are all very unlikely to ever be a part of a contending Nationals team, so if they can flip them for young, improving talents under team control, they should.

Now, I'm not arguing for a fire sale. If no one offers value, you stand pat. But certainly, the talk of trading away young, improving players for short-term rentals or declining veterans should be over and done with.

Want More Offense? Bat Zimmerman Second

After losing 2-1 and 1-0 on consecutive days, I imagine Jim Riggleman is ready to try just about anything to get some more offense. Here's an idea: give your best hitters more at bats and your worst hitters fewer.

Sounds pretty obvious, right? You would think. And yet 61 times this season, Riggleman has penciled in the regular player with the lowest wOBA on the team, Nyjer Morgan, in the first or second hole. And Cristian Guzman, the second-worst hitter by wOBA, has batted first or second 37 times.

Batting order doesn't have nearly as big an impact as some people would have you believe, and certainly rearranging the lineup card isn't going to turn the Nationals into the Yankees.

But batting order does have two concrete impacts. First, the guys who bat higher in the order get more plate appearances. Over the course of an entire season, you lose about 20 plate appearances for every spot a hitter is lowered in the batting order.

Second, the lead-off hitter always bats first in the first inning. That might be a little too obvious to mention, but really the point is that after the first inning, it's all a crapshoot. The lead-off man is no more likely to lead off an inning after the first inning than anyone else.

The Nationals, by hitting Guzman and Morgan up top--especially Morgan, with his dreadful .309 OBP--are achieving two things. They are taking at bats away from better hitters, and they are making it almost impossible for their three really good hitters--Zimmerman, Dunn, and Willingham--to ever hit together in the first inning.

The argument in favor of leading off Guzman and Morgan seems to be nothing more than the silly notion that skinny guys who play defense up the middle should hit 1-2.

The simple solution: send Morgan to the bottom of the order and move everyone else up one spot. I'd probably go Zimmerman, Dunn, Willingham, but you could do it in any order really and it would be better than what they're doing now.

New Podcast: Draft Review

Brian from Nationals Farm Authority joins me to go through the Nationals draft, starting with Bryce Harper before going deep into the later round picks as well. Click here to download, and from that page click the I-Tunes logo to subscribe.

Ran into a Phillies Fan Yesterday

I out and about yesterday and I bumped into a couple all decked out in his-and-hers Phillies attire. Someone else said, "Phillies fans, eh?" They said, "yeah, it's been a rough few weeks for us." And someone else said, "At least you're not Nationals fans." And everyone laughed. Someone else piled in with a tired old story about how they went to a game at Nationals Park that had more Phillies fans than Nationals fans. Everyone was still laughing.

That's where the story usually ends, with me stewing, everyone else laughing. But this time I piped in with, "Just wait till you get Strasburg. He's going to blow you guys away."

And the Phillies fans said, "oh man, you're right--that guy is scary." No one was laughing. Someone asked when's the next time he's pitching. The conversation eventually went off in another direction, but not before everyone said something about how awesome Strasburg is.

That, my friends, is why Strasburg changes everything.

Strasburg Starts, Zimmerman to DH?

If there's one thing Jim Riggleman could do to help Stephen Strasburg transition smoothly to the major leagues, it's to put his best fielding team behind him. You don't necessarily have to bench Josh Willingham for Willie Harris every time, but you definitely want to do what you can to minimize the number of times Strasburg has to get four outs in an inning.

Which is why I was puzzled to see the line-up card at Nationals Journal this am. At DH, one of the very best fielders at any position in all of baseball: Ryan Zimmerman. In right field, Mike Morse, who has started exactly 16 games at that position in his career. Utilityman Alberto Gonzalez gets a start, at his worst fielding position, third base.

Now, from the perspective of winning games in the short term, there's actually some logic here. If you put your weaker fielding defense behind your biggest strikeout pitcher, you're minimizing the chance that they'll be exposed. And you have to give your bench reps once in a while or they won't be sharp when you need them, and your starters could fade under the daily grind. I would imagine that's what Riggleman would say if asked.

But there are a couple concerns with this. First, it shows that Riggleman's priorities are out of whack. The Nationals' flirtation with not being in last place is fun, but nothing--I repeat nothing--is nearly as important this year than Strasburg.

Second, the last thing you want Strasburg to do is to stop trusting his fielders. One of the few non-injury-related issues that could trip up Strasburg is if he starts thinking he needs to strike out every single guy. His pitch counts would rise, and before long you're looking at a 6-inning starter. It took Matt Cain three years to learn that lesson, and some guys never do.

Someday, Strasburg will be the Halladay or Sabathia-like horse who can lift a whole team, and it will make sense to write lineups like this. But now's not the time to ask him to be that guy. For at least the next month, Zimmerman should absolutely be taking his days off on non-Strasburg starts, and the right fielder ought to be either Willie Harris or Roger Bernadina. Let Morse and Gonzalez get their reps when Livo's pitching.

Bryce Harper, Outfielder

The only really surprising thing from the Nationals' announcement that #1 pick Bryce Harper was that he would be an outfielder, not a catcher, the position he has played up till now.

The rationale goes like this: Harper's main tool his his bat, more specifically his power. His other premier tool is his arm. Catching involves a heck of a lot more than throwing, so if the team made him a catcher, it would take at least an extra year or two to get him to the majors than if they put him in right field.

Scouts say he's athletic enough that he could stick behind the plate, however, depending on how his body develops, and as a catcher he'd be a significantly more valuable player. Simply because there are so many fewer guys who can play catcher than outfielder, a premier bat at the catcher position is a much more important step to building a contender than getting a corner outfielder.

Personally, I would have liked to see them give him a chance at catcher, just to see how it goes. But then again I'm no scout, and I can see the arguments on both sides. And if Derek Norris continues to develop, or Jesus Flores bounces back, then the need isn't as great.

One other thing that I haven't seen anyone mention is that Harper's agent, Scott Boras, had made a very strong point in the weeks leading up to the draft that the Nationals should not consider Harper a catcher. Specifically, he said, "No baseball person in his right mind will have the guy catch."

Now, lots of baseball people in fact would have him catch, or at least they wouldn't rule it out. The Nationals have. So if Boras and his client really care about this as much as they say they have, the Nationals may have already strengthened their position in the negotiation over getting him signed.

That's because now, if you're Harper, if you refuse to sign and go back into the draft, then you not only risk seeing your stock drop because of injury or poor play, you also risk going to a team that wants you to catch.

The Nationals are giving Harper a clear, swift path to the majors, and assuming the scouts really do think it's smart to have him in the outfield, then they were smart to make the decision as early and decisively as they did.

The Worst Is Over, Finally

I started this blog a bit over two years ago, disgusted with the complete absence of professionalism in the way the organization was being run and the total downward spiral on the field. I saw Jim Bowden as the personification of what was wrong, but the dysfunction went beyond him. In truth, it was just a totally broken organization.

No one knew who was in charge. Kasten was supposed to pick the GM, but Mark Lerner did. The GM is supposed to pick the field manager and AGM, but Kasten did. The manager is supposed to hire his coaches, but he inherited half of them.

Since then, the team bottomed out with a series of historic blunders that made the Nationals a laughingstock. Smiley Gonzalez. Natinals. The Manny wig. Chad Cordero non-tendered on sports talk radio. The Segway. The food. The 9,000 households. Aaron Crow. And, of course, 205 losses in two years.

But in the last year, slowly, surely, the Nationals have finally become a professional, competent organization. That's a low bar, but considering where this team was in Spring Training of 2009, there was a long way to go.

Just think of what's happened in the last 48 hours. Set aside Strasburg's otherworldly performance. Just from a business and management perspective, this team chose the #1 overall pick in the draft, debuted the most hyped prospect probably ever, managed the hottest non-opening day ticket they've ever had, and become the center of the sports media universe, and you can't think of a single serious blunder.

People aren't complaining about lines at the box office, you aren't hearing about snafus with parking, you don't have the GM or anyone else in the front office or clubhouse creating distractions or embarrassments. It was, dare I say, smooth.

Mike Rizzo had a plan for the front office, and he made it happen. He had a plan for Strasburg, and he stuck to it. He had a plan for the draft, and he executed it.

And now we have the best damn pitcher on the planet. No matter what happens with the rest of the team, Nationals fans will never have to hide their hats or endure laughter from out of town fans. Now, when you wear your Nationals cap, the first thing people will say is, "man, you got quite a pitcher there."

It's never been a better time to be a Nationals fan. We're a long way from the World Series, but the worst is over. Praise the lord.

New Podcast: Strasburg and Harper

Brian Oliver from Nationals Farm Authority joins me for our latest podcast, wherein we discuss Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper reflect on how truly awesome it is to be a Nationals fan right now. Click here to listen to the podcast, and while you're on this page don't forget to subscribe on I-Tunes or whatever podcatcher you use by clicking the link in the bottom right.

The Complete List of Pitchers in MLB History with 14 Ks and 0 BBs in their Debuts

Stephen Strasburg

• And here's the list of the 66 other pitchers who have ever achieved this feat (or at least since 1920, which is as far back as Baseball-Reference's play index goes).

Think Boz Still Wishes they'd Drafted Grant Green?

The best pitcher on the planet (yep, I'm sayin' it, Halladay included) just struck out his last seven straight. Major League hitters looked as overmatched as the Dutch batters I saw him blow away the first time I saw him pitch.

Wow. Just wow. What a fun time to be a Washington Nationals fan. Ya think maybe he didn't need 55 innings in the minors?

And aren't you glad they didn't do what Boswell wanted? Remember this column?

It's too bad Stephen Strasburg is a pitcher. Otherwise, he might be worth a record-shattering amount of money for a No. 1 overall draft pick. But he's a pitcher. So, he isn't...

History is unequivocal. Strasburg, no matter how much he dominates college hitters, will probably either be a .500 pitcher with a 150-150 record, or he'll be a bust...

The history of baseball's draft since it began in 1965 is unmistakable. You can project exceptional hitters with about a 50 percent success rate. You can't project No. 1 overall pitchers at all...

Nobody -- n-o-b-o-d-y -- has used a No. 1 overall pick on a pitcher and been glad they did it...

Hitters pan out -- almost half the time. Pitchers flop or at best disappoint given their hype. He's supposedly been clocked at 99 to 102 mph. When I saw him at the Olympics in Beijing from 100 feet away, he was throwing 93 to 97. It was the end of a long season for him, so maybe his velocity was down. But none of Cuba's hitters was overmatched by his fastball. Only his breaking ball, a fine one, locked anybody up as he allowed five hits, two runs and a homer in four innings. The odds say he's more likely to be Ben McDonald (78-70) than Walter Johnson...

Pitching phenoms were born to break your heart. That's bad enough. Don't let them break the bank, too.

How about this chat?

Silver Spring, Md.: Mr. No. 1 pick Price was just sent down to the minors by Tampa. Strassburg is an exceptional college pitcher, but has no track record except in the Olympics where he was so-so against professional athletes. He is not worth any thing more than Price in these economic times. So - who is/are the hitters the Nats should draft?

Tom Boswell: I'm a bit concerned that, when he came to San Diego State, DStarsburg had to lose a lot of wieght. It's said that he gets rattled a bit when he gets hit, gets angry. Of course, that doesn't happen much. His command is exceptional because, in high school. he only threw 88 and needed control. However, Ben McDonald's command was phenomenal when he arrived __right up until he started getting hit. Then he tried to be even "finer than fine."

The Nats like (among others, and in no particular order): SS Grant Green (USC), 1st Dustin Ackley (UNC) and (P) Mike Minor (Vandy). There are others, of course. I'll get around to them. They also have the No. 10 overall pick. Everybody focuses on Green and Ackley. Not a surprise.

Sec 114, Row E: Bos, good thoughts on Strasburg and the 1st overall picks.

But, can the Nats afford NOT to pick him? After last year's fiasco with Crowe - whomever you want to blame, it still was a fiasco.

Can the Nats afford one more bad PR move? If the Nats passed on Strasburg because of "signability" they would get a nationwide beating from everyone with a keyboard - from the lowliest blogger to the esteemed writers at major newspapers?

Tom Boswell: Boras may assume that the Crowe mess will be a factor. And it may cost the Nats an extra million at the 11th hour. But Strasburg is a What To Have, not a Must Have pick __because he is a pitcher. And all pitching phenoms, as I said, are meant to break your heart. Granted, college p;itchers are slightly less likely to blow up in your face. But NONE of the 102 in the top five have been HOFers! Hello...

Remember '91 when Kasten ran the Braves? Sports Illustrated ran a cover story on Todd Van Poppel (Spelling?), a high schooler. (And SI is now working on a big Strasburg piece.)

The Braves passed on Van Poppel (who went No. 2 and was a flop) and took...Chipper Jones, instead.

Alexandria, VA: Drafting a pitcher is always a gamble but in this case it's a gamble the Nationals have to take.

Joe Mauer was a viable option for the Twins in the year Prior was drafted. Ackley and Green are not in the same class as Strasburg when it comes to talent.

Tom Boswell: This same argument __"EVERYBODY KNOWS that one is vastly better"__ is based on the same herd-think nonsense that we see every day on Wall Street where the hot-stock, cold-stock debate is conducted at full-scream level every day. It is called "market noise.

Nationals Most Likely to Crater

Here at the one-third point of the season, the Nationals are still within spitting distance of .500, though they're slumping lately. Fans are wondering how long they can retain respectability. Here's my look at the Nationals' roster, ranked from most to least likely to significant drop off from their performance so far in the second two-thirds of the season. (Note: I started writing this post early last week, so some of the numbers are a couple days behind.)

1. Ivan Rodriguez

Pudge is putting up his best OBP and wOBA since he led the Tigers to the World Series in 2004. And yet his line-drive rate is the lowest of his career, he's hitting groundballs on a whopping 57% of balls in play, and yet his BABIP is .361. And even when he was a great player, he never took walk. He's also 38 and on pace for about 450 plate appearances, and he's already on the DL with back issues. Hope you enjoyed it while it lasted.

2. Livan Hernandez

Oh, Livan, what a lovely illusion. The 84-mph fastball, the Bugs Bunny curve ball, the shit-eating grin and "I'm the man" slow-walk to the dugout after a 1-2-3 inning. If only this was really the real you. Alas, Livan is striking out fewer hitters than he ever has, a minuscule 9.3%. He's stranding 90.8% of runners, allowing a .213 BABIP, and giving up homers on 9.1% of flyballs. That last number is a bit lucky, but the first two are just silly. If his ERA only doubles from here on out, consider that a positive outcome.

3. Scott Olsen

The good news is that he played catch yesterday. The bad news is, that's the good news. His strikeout rate this year has bounced back to a workable level, and he's getting more groundballs and swings on pitches out of the zone than he ever has. But his velocity is still two ticks below where it was when he was good. The bottom line is that some guys' bodies just can't hold up under the strain of the unnatural act of pitching. For whatever reason, Olsen looks like one of those guys, and that's been the case for almost four seasons.

4. Alberto Gonzalez

After failing in an extended audition as a starting middle infielder last year, Gonzalez could have easily ended up as a victim of the numbers game in spring training and spent the year in Syracuse. But he managed to hang on as a utility infielder and 25th man, and he's turned that opportunity into a .326 / .383 / .395 line in 48 scarce plate appearances. He's also played overall solid defense, enough to put him on pace for 1.5 wins above replacement, even if his playing time doesn't increase. This was enough to really help patch the Zimmerman injury, but the best thing for the Nationals would be to make sure Gonzalez doesn't have a chance to see those numbers decline.

5. Josh Willingham

Josh Willingham is a good player. But he's not an MVP candidate. For the second year in a row, however, he's posted early-season numbers that would have put him right in that conversation, if he played for a better team. Right now, he's tied for 3rd in the NL with 2.1 WAR, trailing just Chase Utley and Jason Heyward. One thing you can count on with Willingham is consistency--almost every year he's finished around his career average of .265 /.368 / .482. He probably will again, and that will mean a prolonged slump at some point. And that would fit his pattern. For his career, his OPS is 62 points lower in the second half than the first half.

6. Matt Capps

Capps has pitched really well this season. If anything, his peripheral stats suggest he's been a little unlucky, with his BABIP way up at .362. He's gone back to throwing his slider less and his fastball more, which could be a function of feeling fully healthy, or it could just be that he's getting back to a better strategy. Still for any pitcher, it's hard to be perfect in save chances, as he was through his first 16 opportunities. And I'm still a bit skeptical that he can maintain his career-best strikeout rate of 19.8%. He's doing it by getting more guys to chase pitches out of the zone, but will that catch up to him as the scouting reports spread and the sample sizes grow? I tend to think it will. Overwork is also a concern.

7. Tyler Clippard

Did someone mention overwork? Clippard's 36.2 innings trails only Matt Belisle's 37 innings for the league lead in relief innings. He's on pace for over 108 innings, and that's not going to happen. So even if he keeps getting the same outcomes, his contribution will shrink. I've noted before that he's been lucky on strand rate, BABIP, and HR/FB rate, and hes actually been pretty terrible on allowing inherited runners to score. But the key rate for him in the dominant 28.8% strikeout rate. Regardless of what else happens, if he keeps missing bats like that, he'll be good. He just won't be this good.

8. Luis Atilano

Atilano has done well for himself, putting up a 5-2 record and a 4.24 ERA. But to keep succeeding, Atilano needs a better off-speed pitch than he has now. There are just very very few pitchers in the history of the game who have succeeded over time while striking out fewer than 10% of batters faced. The scouting reports will catch up, and it could get ugly. You have to like the kid's poise out there, but with Strasburg, Wang, and now maybe Zimmermann waiting in the wings, plus a possible trade in the works, Atilano will need an injury or two to stay around anyway.

9. Cristian Guzman

Guzman is doing what he always does--swinging at everything, taking walks in a microscopic 3.6% of plate appearances, and providing little in the way of power. But, because of a .378 BABIP that's 71 points over his career rate of .307, he has a .323 batting average and .349 OBP. Given his consistent walk rate, strikeout rate, and ISO power rate, Expect him to finish around his 2009 line of .284 / .306 / .390--those numbers are ok for a bench guy, but it'll take a lot of slumping to get back to those numbers. That's assuming he doesn't have a shoulder flare-up send him to the DL.

10. Miguel Batista

He's survived for 33 innings with a 4.09 ERA, while walking more batters than he strikes out. He's this year's Julian Tavarez, and I don't expect him to be here by the end of August.

11. Nyjer Morgan

Morgan has been a disappointment to the people who put too much stock in the small sample size last summer, but really this is probably about who he is. He's actually been ok at the plate. His walk and strikeout rates are similar to what he did last summer. His line drive rate is up. Fewer balls are falling in, but about what you'd expect. It's the fielding and baserunning that's really hurt. Last year he seemed like a real find in center, but this year we've seen the funky routes and bad jumps that made Pittsburgh stick him in left. And he's been a disaster on the basepaths with 9 caught stealings in 21 attempts, plus 4 pick-offs. So he could improve in those areas, but he could also slump at the plate. It's not impossible to imagine him finding his way to the bench if the sloppy play continues.

12. Drew Storen

Storen has a blistering 15:3 strikeout to walk ratio in his 16.2 minor league innings. Since coming to the majors, he's had some bumpy command, already walking 5 in 9 innings. By all indications that will not continue, but the fact is that he hasn't pitched nearly as well as his 2.00 ERA would suggest. Expect more growing pains.

13. Sean Burnett

Burnett has pitched well, and this could certainly continue. Two things to watch for: 1. as Riggleman is forced to dial back on the innings for Clippard and Capps, Burnett may have to face more righties. Second, Burnett right now is striking out 22% of batters faced, which is a big jump from what he's ever done before (career rate: 14.9%). We'll have to see a bigger sample before deciding he's really gotten better at missing bats.

14. Roger Bernadina

Bernadina isn't doing enough to show he belongs in the big leagues. I don't expect him to be worse than he's been, but if he doesn't get better, he shouldn't be here at all.

15. Ian Desmond

Desmond's defense is just what we were told it would be. Good range, good arm, lots of errors. So far it balances out to about average, maybe a little better. His bat is struggling. His plate discipline has really regressed. His OBP is down to .309, and he's not getting pitches to drive.
Adam Kennedy

16. Craig Stammen

Stammen will never ever strike out enough hitters to be a good major league starter, but if you're getting 50% ground balls, you're going to keep the ball in the yard and survive. Stammen gets hit really hard (24% line drive rate), but manages to hang around replacement level. Of all the guys here, this is the first guy who I would bet would improve. He may not get the chance after Strasburg arrives, but he's better than a 5.88 ERA pitcher.

17. Tyler Walker

I feel like Tyler Walker has been really unappreciated this year by Nationals fans. He's got a 5.40 K:BB ratio, which is a fantastic number. If he'd been on last year's team, he'd have been the closer for sure. He probably won't keep pitching this well, but I expect to see him in higher leverage situations. Walker could be a key for the Nationals going forward.

18. Adam Dunn

Power, walks, strikeouts, sun up, sun down. He hasn't killed them with the glove either, which is nice.

19. Wil Nieves

Nieves shouldn't be playing this much at AAA, much less in the big leagues. But with a .186 / .213 / .267 line, even he's bound to get at least a little better. Right? Right?

20. Willie Harris

Harris has a terrible .184 / .284 / .391 line, but he'll be fine. His ISO power is over .200, and he's still walking in 10.7% of plate appearances. It's impressive how he's remade himself as a player, and whether it's because of an injury or performance, he'll find his way back into the lineup soon enough.

21. Ryan Zimmerman

He just keeps getting better. He's one of the best players in the league. Take it to the bank.

I Thought these Wins Were Automatic!

The folks in red-colored glasses have made a big point about how the Nationals had one of the toughest schedules in the majors to start the season. And, the theory goes, now that the team has hit the soft Astros-Reds-Pirates-Indians-Tigers-White Sox-Royals-Orioles portion of the schedule, the team is sure to really take off.

Ooops. Turns out baseball isn't football. There are no Detroit Lions in MLB, and there are no "automatic" wins. Especially when you've got a shortstop in right field in a save situation in the bottom of the ninth.

We shouldn't make too much out of one series, especially one at the end of a long road trip. But this was a really bad series for the Nationals. Matt Capps, so reliable early on, blows two saves. The fielding gaffes were as bad as anything we saw in the days when the Cleveland Spiders were their main competition. And the Astros are really, really awful.

There's an old saying that the way you win a division is to play .500 against contenders and the beat up on the little sisters.

And then there's another old saying that if you can't beat the lowest scoring team in the league with Brian Moehler on the mound, then you better take cover.

Let's hope Riggleman has some tricks up his sleeve.

Armando Galarraga, Former Nationals Prospect

Former Nationals prospect Armando Galarraga is back in the news, and inevitably you'll be hearing about how he was a "throw-in" in the Alfonso Soriano trade, how no one ever thought he would be any good, how you can't blame the Nationals for losing out on a good young arm, etc.

So it seems like now's a good time to remind people that Galarraga was in fact a pretty highly regarded prospect and a key piece of that trade. No, I didn't expect him to throw a perfect game, and yes he was bad last year and didn't even make the Tigers rotation out of spring training. But it's wrong to say Galarraga was not a "real" prospect.

Here's the Baseball America write-up on him from the 2006 Prospect Handbook, in which Galarraga was ranked #5, right behind Ian Desmond:

Background: Because of 2002 Tommy John surgery, Galarraga pitched just 54 innings in his first three seasons in the United States. He stayed healthier once he began to take baseball more seriously in 2004, and he had his best year yet in 2005, earning a berth in the Futures Game and a promotion to Double-A.

Strengths: Galarraga has a lively 92-94 mph sinker and a hard, sharp slider that he can throw for strikes and use as an out pitch. He has a strong, athletic frame and attacks hitters from a three-quarters arm slot. He’s very competitive and shows a mean streak.

Weaknesses: For Galarraga to stick as a starter, he needs to complement his two plus offerings with a third pitch. He must continue to develop his changeup, which shows some promise. He doesn’t walk many batters but sometimes misses his spots inside the zone.

The Future: Galarraga can be a No. 3 starter if his changeup emerges. If that doesn’t work out, he could be a powerful bullpen arm. He figures to start 2006 back at Harrisburg but could earn a big league promotion late in 2006.

Nationals Rate Triple Crown

Going into tonight, Cristian Guzman leads the league in batting average, Josh Willingham leads the league in on-base percentage, and Ryan Zimmerman leads the league in slugging. (Andre Ethier leads both Guzman in BA and Zimmerman in SLG but doesn't have enough at bats to qualify.)

The 1959 Detroit Tigers are the only team in MLB history that has had three different players lead the league in the so-called "rate" triple crown categories in the same season. Harvey Kuenn won the batting title while Eddie Yost led the league in OBP and Al Kaline led the league in SLG.

There are a number of teams that have split the BA, OBP, and SLG titles between two players, but none recently:
1933 Philadelphia A's: Jimmie Foxx (BA and SLG), Mickey Cochrane (OBP)
1893 Philadelphia Phillies: Billy Hamilton (BA and OBP), Ed Delahanty (SLG)
1888 Chicago Cubs: Cap Anson (BA and OBP), Jimmy Ryan (SLG)
1887 Detroit Wolverines: Sam Thompson (BA and SLG), Dan Brouthers (OBP)
1877 Boston Red Stockings: Deacon White (BA and SLG), Jim O'Rourke (OBP)

Happy Strasburg Day!

Mark your calendars folks--it's June 8 against the Pittsburgh Pirates. My observations:

--The timing of this move is so transparently about managing the arbitration clock and nothing else, that I wish they'd just say it. I don't even mind the rationale. I made the case in Jordan Zimmermann's case that they should have delayed his call-up to avoid the extra arb year. Strasburg I think is different because he's so special. But I just want Rizzo to flash one of his "too honest" moments and say, "yeah, of course it was about money. Don't be stupid."

--If things stay on schedule, his first five starts will be Pittsburgh at home, then on the road against Cleveland and the White Sox, followed by an away game in Baltimore. That's four of the seven lowest-scoring teams in baseball.

--The Nationals have set up a nice little PR blitz for themselves by making their #1 overall pick Bryce Harper on June 7 and then starting Strasburg the very next day at Nationals Park.