At the beginning of the season, Brian Oliver, Mark Zuckerman, and I did a podcast announcing our predictions for the Nationals' win total this year, and somehow we all came to the same number: 68 wins. Should the Nationals get swept at the hands of the New York Mets this weekend, we'll all be right.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Thursday, September 23, 2010
New Right Track-Wrong Track Poll
I fell behind in the monthly right track-wrong track polling, but I'm curious about the fan reaction to Stan Kasten's departure. So there's a new poll up, and it'll be up through the end of October.
Stan Kasten Failed
Not to put too fine a point on it, but is there any other conclusion that can be reached?
On Monday, the Nationals drew an announced paid attendance of 10,999 to Nationals Park, the team's smallest since baseball returned to DC in 2005. Then, fewer than 12,000 showed up Tuesday, and fewer than 13,000 were at Wednesday's game. That's the end result of the Kasten era, and there's no other way around it.
Make excuses if you like. I am certainly on record that Jim Bowden was a bigger problem for this team than Stan Kasten. The team was in bad shape when he got here. Tom Boswell would have us believe that Kasten had the answers all along, but the Lerners just wouldn't listen.
Whatever. The Nationals also had some great opportunities when he got here. A brand-new stadium. High draft picks. A near-MVP caliber third baseman. The most recession-proof market in baseball. Tremendous enthusiasm for the return to baseball, at least back when he first came in (dang, does that seem like a long time ago).
In fairness, if we could get a look at the Nationals' books, we would probably see a team that's doing just fine in terms of short-term profit. But cashing in on a new stadium and revenue sharing while fielding a crappy team and squandering the fan base isn't a recipe for long-term success. That's called strip-mining.
This franchise has dark days ahead. Nevermind Stan's happy talk and MLB.com's silly cheerleading. The decisions made under Kasten's watch will keep the team in the cellar for the foreseeable future. And for that reason Stan Kasten's regime in Washington should be regarded as nothing but a failure. It's time for new blood, and Nationals fans shouldn't be sad to see him go.
As for what Stan does next, I'd guess he's going to be working for MLB, probably working on the CBA in some capacity. He always seemed to be running the Nationals as if he was applying for a job in Selig's office, rather than helping the Nationals win.
On Monday, the Nationals drew an announced paid attendance of 10,999 to Nationals Park, the team's smallest since baseball returned to DC in 2005. Then, fewer than 12,000 showed up Tuesday, and fewer than 13,000 were at Wednesday's game. That's the end result of the Kasten era, and there's no other way around it.
Make excuses if you like. I am certainly on record that Jim Bowden was a bigger problem for this team than Stan Kasten. The team was in bad shape when he got here. Tom Boswell would have us believe that Kasten had the answers all along, but the Lerners just wouldn't listen.
Whatever. The Nationals also had some great opportunities when he got here. A brand-new stadium. High draft picks. A near-MVP caliber third baseman. The most recession-proof market in baseball. Tremendous enthusiasm for the return to baseball, at least back when he first came in (dang, does that seem like a long time ago).
In fairness, if we could get a look at the Nationals' books, we would probably see a team that's doing just fine in terms of short-term profit. But cashing in on a new stadium and revenue sharing while fielding a crappy team and squandering the fan base isn't a recipe for long-term success. That's called strip-mining.
This franchise has dark days ahead. Nevermind Stan's happy talk and MLB.com's silly cheerleading. The decisions made under Kasten's watch will keep the team in the cellar for the foreseeable future. And for that reason Stan Kasten's regime in Washington should be regarded as nothing but a failure. It's time for new blood, and Nationals fans shouldn't be sad to see him go.
As for what Stan does next, I'd guess he's going to be working for MLB, probably working on the CBA in some capacity. He always seemed to be running the Nationals as if he was applying for a job in Selig's office, rather than helping the Nationals win.
John Manuel Wants to Hear from Nationals Fans
In the latest Baseball America podcast, BA editor John Manuel went on a brief rant about how Manny Acta is overrated as a young, up-and-coming manager (if you click the link and listen, it's right at the end):
I would love for an Indians fan to email in and tell us, or a Nationals fan, what is it about Manny Acta that makes him thought of as this young, up and coming manager, this potentially really good manager. I don't get it. I don't see it. I don't see it in the track record. I don't see it from what he did in the minor leagues. Besides the fact that Manny Acta wears cool hats at the Winter Meetings and dresses sharp and is bilingual. What is the deal with that guy? I honestly don't get it. Someone has to explain that to me. I never quite got it with Eric Wedge. But at least Eric Wedge took them to the 2007--they won the division. They were competitive a few years. They had the one year in '05 with the massive finish and just missed the playoffs. What has Manny Acta done. Did players get better under him in Washington? Did players get better under him in Cleveland?I know there are lots of opinions out there. So let him know what you think. The email is podcast@baseballamerica.com or you can post on the BA Facebook page here: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Baseball-America/247155898718.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Another Shot for Ross Detwiler
Ross Detwiler was the #6 overall pick in 2007, one pick after Matt Wieters and eight picks before Jason Heyward. Number six isn't nearly as valuable as the #1 or even the #2 pick, but it's a premium draft pick; other #6 picks in recent years have included Zack Greinke, Rocco Baldelli, and Ricky Romero.
Moreover, a team like the Nationals needs high picks like this to contribute if they're ever going to turn things around. And Detwiler, considered the #2 college arm in that draft, simply hasn't delivered.
Detwiler was given probably more chances to start last season than he deserved, and he didn't do much with it. He finished 2009, his age 23 season, with a 5.00 ERA and poor 12.6% strikeout rate. He then lost most of this season to a torn hip flexor, which ruined what would have been a wide open shot at redemption.
But it looks like Detwiler, who has been pitching in the bullpen since he was recalled a couple weeks ago, will get another chance to start this Thursday against the Astros. The team is surely hoping that he can finally break through next year, giving them a cost-controlled power lefty in the back of the rotation. And if he does well against Houston, get ready for an entire off-season of hype about how Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Detwiler look to Stan a lot like a young (all together now) Smoltz, Avery, and Glavine.
But until Detwiler shows he can miss bats at the major league level, fans should remain skeptical. He's done fairly well this season while working his way back from surgery, posting a 2.27 ERA while pitching mostly at AA. He's produced solid groundball rates (51.4%) and strikeout rates (21.1%) in the minors, but now at age 24, he's not doing anything that makes you stop and think he's going to be anything special. It's a painful missed opportunity that, barring a major turnaround, will continue to dog the franchise for years.
Moreover, a team like the Nationals needs high picks like this to contribute if they're ever going to turn things around. And Detwiler, considered the #2 college arm in that draft, simply hasn't delivered.
Detwiler was given probably more chances to start last season than he deserved, and he didn't do much with it. He finished 2009, his age 23 season, with a 5.00 ERA and poor 12.6% strikeout rate. He then lost most of this season to a torn hip flexor, which ruined what would have been a wide open shot at redemption.
But it looks like Detwiler, who has been pitching in the bullpen since he was recalled a couple weeks ago, will get another chance to start this Thursday against the Astros. The team is surely hoping that he can finally break through next year, giving them a cost-controlled power lefty in the back of the rotation. And if he does well against Houston, get ready for an entire off-season of hype about how Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Detwiler look to Stan a lot like a young (all together now) Smoltz, Avery, and Glavine.
But until Detwiler shows he can miss bats at the major league level, fans should remain skeptical. He's done fairly well this season while working his way back from surgery, posting a 2.27 ERA while pitching mostly at AA. He's produced solid groundball rates (51.4%) and strikeout rates (21.1%) in the minors, but now at age 24, he's not doing anything that makes you stop and think he's going to be anything special. It's a painful missed opportunity that, barring a major turnaround, will continue to dog the franchise for years.
Monday, September 13, 2010
How Is this Not Marketing Alcohol to Kids?
It's clearly an MLB issue, not a Nationals issue, but is this really appropriate? Especially at a day game, this seems like a pretty textbook example of marketing to children. Would MLB be ok with doing this promo with Joe Camel? Seems like really questionable judgment from the league office.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Looking for a Free Agent Ace
In his latest regular interview with MASN.com, Mike Rizzo said this:
More interestingly, he's right on the cusp of slipping to Type B free agency. Keep an eye on the Elias Rankings updates on MLB Trade Rumors, and if Vazquez slips out of Type A free agency in the last couple weeks of the season, which is certainly possible, look for him to become a top target for a bounce-back year with the franchise that drafted him 16 years ago.
I certainly would like to get a guy to lead that rotation and be a front-of-the-rotation guy, via free agency or trades or that type of thing. Those, as you know, are few and far between. They're tough to get and often expensive to get. But I feel comfortable with the depth. I do think we need a leader of that rotation. That would be one of our needs in the offseason.I took a quick glance at the free agents available for 2011, and Javier Vazquez jumped out at me. He's struggled again in New York this season, but he was one of the very best pitchers in baseball last year in Atlanta.
More interestingly, he's right on the cusp of slipping to Type B free agency. Keep an eye on the Elias Rankings updates on MLB Trade Rumors, and if Vazquez slips out of Type A free agency in the last couple weeks of the season, which is certainly possible, look for him to become a top target for a bounce-back year with the franchise that drafted him 16 years ago.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Why Riggles Isn't Quite 100% Off the Hook for Strasburg in my Book
Maybe the DCCC is invading my subconscious, but I suddenly find myself recalling dark episodes from the Bush administration. Like Donald Rumsfeld:
The truth is, we don't have any idea. Pitching is one of the least understood areas of sports medicine. Talk to one pitching coach, and he'll tell you that Strasburg's problem was the "upside-down W." Talk to another and he'll say it was that he short-stepped on the front end. Talk to another and he'll tell you he didn't do enough long-toss, or that he threw too much in college, or that he didn't throw enough, or that his mechanics are perfect and just had bad genes.
After listening to all that, you realize that there are really only two camps when it comes to pitching injuries. People who don't know and know they don't know (see, me), and people who don't know but think they know (see Olney, Buster).
My problem is that Jim Riggleman could be the poster boy for the school of unknown unknowns. On blogger day last year, I asked him if he'd learned anything from Kerry Wood, and would he do anything differently. He said, "I never asked for him to come up, but once he was there we treated him like everybody else. [Pitchers] just get hurt. It was probably inevitable."
Then, during spring training, Mark Zuckerman captured this moment of clarity from Riggleman:
Now, again, based on what we could see from the outside, it seemed like they were careful. We know about pitch counts, they waited to bring him up... generally it looks like they were taking obvious steps to limit his workload and the stress on his arm.
That's all well and good. But pitch counts and innings limits are only two pieces of a big puzzle, and I just don't believe that a team run by a guy who says he knows bupkis about pitching mechanics (and doesn't seem to be aware why that's a problem) can be said to be doing "everything they could."
Going back to the "two camps of pitching theory," there's really a third camp. Those are the people who know they don't know, but they have ideas and they are trying to learn. Guys like Don Cooper of the Chicago White Sox (who has been widely misreported as having "predicted" Strasburg's injury--Cooper saw what he considered a red flag in Strasburg's "upside-down" arm action, but expressed worry, not a concrete prediction).
Cooper doesn't have the magic 8 ball or anything. But he was the pitching coach for this group, which says something. He and a lot of other thoughtful, smart baseball and medical people are working to advance the body of knowledge about pitching injuries, even if all they can do is reduce risk or delay injuries, rather than eliminate them altogether.
I just with the guy running my team was one of those smart, thoughtful people trying to learn.
There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. These are things we do not know we don’t know.Which brings me to Stephen Strasburg's elbow. Did the Nationals "do everything they could to protect him and keep him from placing unusual stress on his arm" as Buster Olney and all right-thinking baseball insiders have said again and again?
The truth is, we don't have any idea. Pitching is one of the least understood areas of sports medicine. Talk to one pitching coach, and he'll tell you that Strasburg's problem was the "upside-down W." Talk to another and he'll say it was that he short-stepped on the front end. Talk to another and he'll tell you he didn't do enough long-toss, or that he threw too much in college, or that he didn't throw enough, or that his mechanics are perfect and just had bad genes.
After listening to all that, you realize that there are really only two camps when it comes to pitching injuries. People who don't know and know they don't know (see, me), and people who don't know but think they know (see Olney, Buster).
My problem is that Jim Riggleman could be the poster boy for the school of unknown unknowns. On blogger day last year, I asked him if he'd learned anything from Kerry Wood, and would he do anything differently. He said, "I never asked for him to come up, but once he was there we treated him like everybody else. [Pitchers] just get hurt. It was probably inevitable."
Then, during spring training, Mark Zuckerman captured this moment of clarity from Riggleman:
You know, anything that has to do with the mechanics of pitching, you know, I just, I'd be bluffing if I tried to tell you I knew what I was talking about. You know, the mechanics of pitching, you know, it makes sense to me when McCatty and pitchers explain what they're doing, but you know, I want him to be healthy, and I'm looking for results, so, you know, that's the main thing, and I'm sure if he feels there was a mechanical thing there that he was doing that he'll make the adjustment, and he'll do it otherwise next time he pitches.There are gobs of quotes like this from Riggleman, and they all basically come back to the same points: he doesn't know what he's talking about, but he's 100% sure it doesn't make any difference.
Now, again, based on what we could see from the outside, it seemed like they were careful. We know about pitch counts, they waited to bring him up... generally it looks like they were taking obvious steps to limit his workload and the stress on his arm.
That's all well and good. But pitch counts and innings limits are only two pieces of a big puzzle, and I just don't believe that a team run by a guy who says he knows bupkis about pitching mechanics (and doesn't seem to be aware why that's a problem) can be said to be doing "everything they could."
Going back to the "two camps of pitching theory," there's really a third camp. Those are the people who know they don't know, but they have ideas and they are trying to learn. Guys like Don Cooper of the Chicago White Sox (who has been widely misreported as having "predicted" Strasburg's injury--Cooper saw what he considered a red flag in Strasburg's "upside-down" arm action, but expressed worry, not a concrete prediction).
Cooper doesn't have the magic 8 ball or anything. But he was the pitching coach for this group, which says something. He and a lot of other thoughtful, smart baseball and medical people are working to advance the body of knowledge about pitching injuries, even if all they can do is reduce risk or delay injuries, rather than eliminate them altogether.
I just with the guy running my team was one of those smart, thoughtful people trying to learn.
Monday, September 6, 2010
Jim Callis Updates his Nationals Top Ten
Jim Callis over at Baseball America offered his updated Nationals Top Ten prospects in a chat today.
Click over and check out the full list and comments, but a few observations. Three of the top five prospects are 2010 draftees. That's usually a bad sign for a system. They graduated four of last year's top ten to the majors (Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen, Ian Desmond, and Justin Maxwell), while the 2009 #7 (Jeff Kobernus) and #10 (Destin Hood) dropped off the list. Callis is either really high on Wilson Ramos or really low on the rest of the system, as Ramos checks in way up at #2.
Click over and check out the full list and comments, but a few observations. Three of the top five prospects are 2010 draftees. That's usually a bad sign for a system. They graduated four of last year's top ten to the majors (Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen, Ian Desmond, and Justin Maxwell), while the 2009 #7 (Jeff Kobernus) and #10 (Destin Hood) dropped off the list. Callis is either really high on Wilson Ramos or really low on the rest of the system, as Ramos checks in way up at #2.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Nyjer Morgan Needs to Go
That guy is just out of control. First the cheap shot on Bryan Anderson, then he throws a ball at a fan, then he takes out another catcher, tells another fan to "shut up fat b****," then steals second and third down 11 runs (barreling into the second and third basemen, even when there was no throw at third), then charges the mound and jaws with the fans again on the way off the field.
Seriously, this guy is totally out of control. He shouldn't be playing baseball, and honestly the guy probably needs to be in therapy. He definitely shouldn't play the rest of the year for the Nationals.
By the way--remember the Nationals traded "bad apple" Lastings Milledge for Morgan. I don't remember Milledge ever doing anything remotely similar to this. Or Elijah Dukes for that matter.
Also, this really reflects badly on Jim Riggleman. He's the guy who let this situation get out of control, and it doesn't help him that his third base coach Pat Listach jumped right in the middle of the bench-clearing brawl and had to be pulled out by a player. Looked like John McLaren was right in there too.
Seriously, this guy is totally out of control. He shouldn't be playing baseball, and honestly the guy probably needs to be in therapy. He definitely shouldn't play the rest of the year for the Nationals.
By the way--remember the Nationals traded "bad apple" Lastings Milledge for Morgan. I don't remember Milledge ever doing anything remotely similar to this. Or Elijah Dukes for that matter.
Also, this really reflects badly on Jim Riggleman. He's the guy who let this situation get out of control, and it doesn't help him that his third base coach Pat Listach jumped right in the middle of the bench-clearing brawl and had to be pulled out by a player. Looked like John McLaren was right in there too.
- Oh, and in all this craziness, let's not forget that Scott Olsen raised his ERA to 5.88. Can anyone explain why he's still here?
- Now Riggleman orders Doug Slaten to hit Gaby Sanchez with a pitch, warming up Drew Storen to replace Doug Slaten just in case it wasn't totally clear what was going on. This is not the way to help the young guys transition to the bigs.
Dibble's Toast
If I'm not mistaken, Mark Zuckerman had it first. I did the honors on Wikipedia.
Dibble's tenure with MASN over
MIAMI — Rob Dibble will no longer be broadcasting Nationals games on MASN, a club spokesman said this afternoon.
The former Reds reliever, who signed a three-year contract with MASN in 2009, has not called any games since last week, when comments he made on his Sirius XM radio show about Stephen Strasburg generated controversy. According to a MASN spokesman at the time, Dibble requested time off. He hasn't returned to the booth since, with Ray Knight filling as as analyst alongside play-by-play announcer Bob Carpenter.
The Nationals spokesman said the club wouldn't have any other comment on Dibble's permanent departure.
More to come...
First Strasburg, Now Brian?
Nationals Farm Authority is moving on to greener pastures. I can certainly understand the struggle to maintain a blog presence in the middle of a major professional or life change. And lord knows this franchise doesn't give much reason to stay engaged 24/7/365.
But Brian had a great run and definitely filled a major gap in coverage that won't be filled anytime soon. Around the league, there aren't many prospect blogs that were as thorough as NFA, and unlike most of the Natmosphere bloggers, Brian actually did some reporting, cultivating relationships with minor league affiliates and from time to time breaking news before anyone else.
I'm sure we'll still hear from Brian from time to time, but for now it's a bad day to be a Nationals prospect hound.
But Brian had a great run and definitely filled a major gap in coverage that won't be filled anytime soon. Around the league, there aren't many prospect blogs that were as thorough as NFA, and unlike most of the Natmosphere bloggers, Brian actually did some reporting, cultivating relationships with minor league affiliates and from time to time breaking news before anyone else.
I'm sure we'll still hear from Brian from time to time, but for now it's a bad day to be a Nationals prospect hound.
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