Position-by-Position Off-Season Outlook: Second Base

Continuing my series looking at the Nationals' current personnel organization-wide and the opportunities to upgrade this off-season, next up is second base. If you missed it and are interested, click to check out my looks at the catchers and first-basemen.

As always, I have two key questions in mind, the first far more important than the second: 1. what can we do to speed the arrival of The First Great Nationals Team (FJB target date: 2011), and 2. what can we do to move towards respectability in 2009. The first step is to evaluate accurately and honestly where we stand now, and the next step is to look at opportunities to upgrade.

The Present

• Starting second-baseman: Emilio Bonifacio

Bowden and Rizzo have both indicated that we're looking at a spring training battle and possible platoon with Anderson Hernandez next year. A platoon seems likely, because, although both are switch hitters, AH has hit 312 OPS points better right-handed while Emmylou was 234 points better left-handed this year. But since the lefty gets the most starts in a platoon, we'll call Bonifacio the starter.

Bonifacio, 24, will never have any power, but, with his speed and good defense, can become a useful starting player if he can figure out how to avoid making outs often enough. To be a starter who actually helps us win, he needs to get his OBP up to the .350-.360 range or better. If he's down in the .310-.330 range or lower, he'll be hurting us more than he's helping. This year his OBP was .305. Left-handed, however, he got on at a .337 clip.

To get that high OBP, he needs to never strike out, take a ton of walks, or both. Just slapping at the ball all the time can produce decent results, but it's inconsistent. Sometimes the ball finds holes, and sometimes it doesn't, and the luck doesn't always even out over the course of a season. Case in point: Cristian Guzman. In his horrid '05, his BABIP was .255; this year, it was .339. There were other differences, but an 84-point difference in BABIP is huge, and a lot of that is seeing-eye dribblers he just didn't get in '05.

That's why Luis Castillo is thrown out there as Bonifacio's most favorable comp. In his prime, Castillo had not only a tiny K%, but also a very good walk rate. For his career, his K/AB is 13.3% (average is ~17-18%), and his walk rate is 10.7% (average is ~10%).

Alas, this year, Bonifacio struck out a whopping 27.2% of the time, while walking just 7.7%, so he has a long way to go to become Luis Castillo, especially on the contact side. And although Castillo struggled in his first partial season in the bigs too, posting a 28% K-rate, he is probably not a reasonable expectation. Let's look at their ages 19-23 major- and minor-league numbers:

	Age	Level	Ks	PA	K/PA	BB	BB/PA
Bonifacio	19	A	122	436	28.0%	25	5.7%
Castillo	19	A	50	395	12.7%	37	9.4%
Bonifacio	20	A	90	591	15.2%	56	9.5%
Castillo	20	AA	68	486	14.0%	66	13.6%
Castillo	20	MLB	46	180	25.6%	14	7.8%
Bonifacio	21	A+	104	608	17.1%	44	7.2%
Castillo	21	AAA	22	146	15.1%	16	11.0%
Castillo	21	MLB	53	291	18.2%	27	9.3%
Bonifacio	22	AA	105	596	17.6%	38	6.4%
Castillo	22	AAA	68	455	14.9%	75	16.5%
Castillo	22	MLB	33	177	18.6%	22	12.4%
Bonifacio	23	AAA	68	438	15.5%	31	7.1%
Bonifacio	23	MLB	46	186	24.7%	14	7.5%
Castillo	23	MLB	85	563	15.1%	67	11.9%

From year to year, Castillo out-performed Bonifacio in both K/PA and BB/PA, even while playing at higher levels. Players develop at all different paces, so it's possible that Bonifacio will get there eventually, but it's not at all likely.

The comparables generated by PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus's trademark projection system) are probably more realistic. Weirdly, his top PECOTA comps include Anderson Hernandez and Nationals cast-off Alejandro Machado. Others mentioned include Alfredo Amazega, Alexi Casilla, Tony Womack and Miguel Cairo. None of these guys ever hit in the .340-.360 OPS range except for a career year or two here or there. So he's going to need to develop contact skills that don't yet appear evident based on his stats. Hopefully Rizzo sees something the numbers don't show.

Finally, he's supposed to be a plus-defender, but committed a whopping 7 errors in 37 games last year. I imagine he'll come around, but that's a concern. And despite blazing speed, he needs to improve on his 6 out of 10 steal rate.

• Back-up: Anderson Hernandez

Like Bonifacio, Hernandez has no power, so all his value has to come from OBP. In 91 plate appearances with the Nationals this year, he did more than enough, posting an all star-caliber .407 OBP while striking out in just 9.9% of his ABs and walking in 11%. Of course, he also did that with a totally unsustainable .370 BABIP. And there's not much in his minor league numbers to suggest he can maintain those walk or strikeout numbers either. Still, as I wrote above, he could easily give up 50 points in OBP and still be a useful option at second base, and he'd be a decent lead-off option too. It just seems like he's probably going to lose more like 80-100 points of OBP.

He too is expected to play a plus-defense and has some wheels.

• Back-up: Ronnie Belliard

Belliard is coming off what was quietly the best season of his career, a .287 / .372 / .473 line. If he had maintained that for a whole season, he would have been a solidly above-average offensive second-baseman. His 845 OPS tops the likes of Brian Roberts, Brandon Phillips, and Placido Polanco. He's a real defensive liability at second and is totally unacceptable at first and shortstop, and he'll be 34 next season, but with one more year on his 2-year, $3.5 million contract, he should have value to someone.

In the Minors

• Stephen King

At 20, King has played mostly played 3B and has a good arm, but everything I've read has him moving to second base eventually. He has some good pop, but he has a big swing with a lot of holes and not enough walks. He made some progress on the strikeouts this year and was promoted to high-A Potomac mid-season, where he struggled. He could make it as a back-up or maybe even a regular 2-3 years down the road.

• Jake Smolinski

Smolinski has shown good on-base skills and got himself promoted from low-A Vermont to A-level Hagerstown at mid-season this year. Moved from left field to second base this season, he made 12 errors in 75 games. Fielding stats in the minor leagues are funky, so take that with a grain of salt. He's just 19 and has a chance to make it as a bench guy.

Free Agents
Courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors, here are the second base free agents available this off-season:

Willie Bloomquist (31)
Jamey Carroll (35) - $2.5MM club option for '09 with a $0.15MM buyout
Craig Counsell (38)
Ray Durham (37)
Damion Easley (39)
David Eckstein (34)
Mark Ellis (32)
Mark Grudzielanek (39)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (33)
Orlando Hudson (31)
Tadahito Iguchi (34)
Jeff Kent (41)
Felipe Lopez (29)
Mark Loretta (37)
Nick Punto (31)

FJB's Take
As much as Bonifacio struggled after coming over from Arizona, you have to look at 2009 as his chance to show he can do it at the big league level, at least as a strong-side platoon guy. More than anything, watch those strikeouts. He needs to get his Ks/PA down to at least under 20% next year--ultimately it needs to be in the 14-15% range or better. It would help if he could get that BB/PA number closer to 9-10%, but really it's the Ks that are killing him.

Hernandez is a bench utility guy, and if there's a GM somewhere in the league who is fooled by his 2008 and thinks he's a starter, trade him, but no one's that easily duped.

Belliard has to be traded this off season. He doesn't fit on our roster anymore, and there's a whole slew of contending and near-contending teams who need a second-baseman. The White Sox, Brewers, Cardinals, Mets, and Cardinals are all in that category, while the Giants, Royals, Rockies, and Padres are all in the market for a second-baseman as well. One of those teams will sign Orlando Hudson, but after that Belliard is as good or better than any of the other options in free agency. Ray Durham fetched P Steve Hammond and OF Darren Ford (a couple fringy prospects but prospects nonetheless) from the Brewers at mid-season. Belliard should bring back at least that much or more.

Looking ahead, if Bonifacio doesn't take a step forward, Brian Roberts (Orioles), Placido Polanco (Tigers), and Mark DeRosa (Cubs) will headline the free agent class of 2009-10.