Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Tom Tango / Nate Silver Sum up where the Election Stands

In case you aren't aware of it, sabermetrics guru Nate Silver has a great website called analyzing polling data on the presidential election and other national races. He's using some of the same fancy math applied to baseball to figure out who's winning and who's not. The tagline for the site says it best: election projections done right.

I don't know the math well enough to comment on whether Nate is getting it right or not, but he makes a good case for why his method is superior to other poll aggregation sites like Real Clear Politics or

Anyway, Silver's fellow stathead Tom Tango has this comment on Nate's analysis on his site today:
Nate has Obama with an 89% win expectancy as of today. Bottom of the 9th, 1 out, down by 2 is a 96% chance of winning. Down by one though is a 90% chance. So, that’s where we are in the race. Bottom of the 9th, 1 out, down by 1 run, McCain batting, Obama pitching.
Whether you're for Obama or McCain, you gotta love it.


Kenny Gartner said...

speaking of politics, this might be of note/importance to you:

Steven said...

Wow no shit. Rob Portman.
Good find!!

Kenny Gartner said...

thank you journalism class!