Tuesday, December 2, 2008

More Recommended Reads...

Some of my intrepid blogger friends in the Natmosphere have been kicking me all over the yard beating me to the punch on some of what would have otherwise been my best ideas for posts over the last few days. So I'm just going to refer you to them:
  • Harper at OMG debriefs the arbitration offers (and non-offers) yesterday and what they mean for the Nationals--and as he says, there are some significant developments for sure.
  • Brian at NFA looks at the Rule 5 draft and who the Nationals may go after with their first overall pick in the draft, and this is a big deal too, as the Nationals are very likely to take someone, and that someone will most likely fill a 25-man roster spot from day one in 2009.
  • E Chigliak at Federal Baseball has been keeping us up to date on the winter league performances of our Nationals for weeks. The latest looks at how Ronnie Belliard and Anderson Hernandez are doing in the Dominican League, essentially a preview of the spring training battle for the starting 2B job.
In all three cases, these are pretty much exactly the posts I would have written had they not beat me to it--I'd even planned to steal the rule 5 breakdowns from Baseball Analysts :-).

So instead of re-hashing points already made by others, I'm just going to say "ditto Harper; ditto Brian; ditto E."


Wil Nieves said...

what do you think of jerry crasnick's take on jimbo?

ESPN article

traderkirk said...

Even better question . . .

"The Dodgers will likely acquire their 2009 starting shortstop via trade, writes Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. Renteria has been signed by the Giants, Rafael Furcal is too expensive, Orlando Cabrera has been offered arbitration, and the rest of the free agents just aren't that good."

Renteria got 2 years $18.5 million. That sounds rather familiar. Isn't there another starting ss in the National League with a very similar deal?

The Guzman deal looks a lot better now doesn't it?

Steven said...

Not really. I wouldn't be a fan of the Renteria signing if I was a Giants fan, but I don't think this vindicates the Guzman signing really much at all.

Same number of years, and Renteria gets a little over a million more a year. You're saying I guess that you think Guzman is a superior player but you'd be wrong. He had a superior 2008, but take away the 45 point difference in BABIP between them and you get a different picture. And that was in a career year for Guzzy and a down year for Renteria. Edgar is a couple years older, but other than that

traderkirk said...

The question isn't whether Guzman is better than Renteria, the question is market value.

I will grant that allowing Sabien to set market value is crazy (Rowand and Zito to name two) nonetheless it cost $8 mil per for a league average SS. That's what jimBo paid. Not a genius move but at least not a disaster.

The alternatives? Furcal? Apparently his back is a lot more wonky that we think (otherwise would the market for him be a lot more active???)

All the various Hernanadezses and Gonzalezs??? Would they rate as average defensively and below average with the stick? Unless the savings goes directly to big pitching upgrades they would be farther behind.

Steven said...

Well, I don't think I ever said that re-signing Guzman at 2 years and 16m was a terrible idea given the options. But you're overpaying for a guy who's very likely to give you below average production. And the main argument for it is the one you make--that we've failed so badly at developing a better option internally that we have no choice.

You ask what other options? Well, how about Brendan Harris? Or Maicer Izturis? Or we could have drafted Yunel Escobar with the pick we gave up to sign Vinny Castilla. Or we could have traded Chad Cordero in 2006 for a good young player, or we could have traded Nick Johnson in 2004 for a great young player.

Don't tell me it's not possible to build a winner and acquire good players. Bowden's had four years. If the best he can do is to overpay for his own mediocrities, then that's his bad.