Monday, January 12, 2009

Probability of Nationals Wins Graph

For your visual pleasure, the graph below shows the probabilities of the Nationals winning 0 to 162 games. This is using a binomial distribution based on my wins above replacement projections using Bill James's individual player projections, which give a win percentage of .472. The worst season with greater than zero chance of occurring is 118 losses.


Hat tip to Brewers blog Right Field Bleachers.

4 comments:

Will said...

That graphic can't be right. Check your math, Steven.
There's a chance (however minimal) the Nats could win 97 games this year?
Yeah right...

Steven said...

Well, the .472 winning percentage is a legit calculation based on one smart guy's projections of what the Nationals players will do this year. The incredibly small chance of a 97 win season is incredibly small.

Benzbe said...

Would be cool if you could include the Yankees or Red Sox curve on the same graph. Or even better, the curve of the median MLB team (or the imaginary team of all replacement-level players that the Lerners are working on.)

Tim said...

How about a chart where the Min X axis is 49 and the Max X axis is 105 so that we can see the percentages better (As opposed to a almost a straight line down).
Thanks,