Who Was Mr. Clutch in 2008? Not who you Think...

There's much debate about whether clutch ability exists as a repeatable skill or if it's just a function of sample size randomness and fan favoritism. A lot of statheads discount it greatly, if not dismiss it entirely. I'm not going to worry about that, because regardless it definitely makes for good barstool chatter.

Baseball-Reference has a function on it's batting splits page where you can see how players performed in high, medium and low-leverage situations. (Leverage is simply a measure of the relative importance of a game situation--two outs in the bottom of the ninth of a tie game is a much higher leverage situation than leading off the game, for instance.) Just click on the Nationals team batting splits page, scroll down to leverage, and then click on the orange highlighted "High leverage" link and each player's performance in those situations pop up. Or just click here if you just want to skip to the full results.

Here are the Nationals ranked by OPS in high leverage situations in 2008:

	PA	High Lev. OPS
AHernandez	22	1.12
AGonzalez	13	1.084
RBelliard	69	1.015
NJohnson	30	0.95
JFlores	89	0.835
EDukes	73	0.822
DYoung	44	0.79
AKearns	86	0.784
KCasto	40	0.767
JEstrada	8	0.75
RLangerhans	34	0.744
CGuzman	108	0.655
ABoone	57	0.646
PLoDuca	32	0.629
LMilledge	131	0.593
WHarris	85	0.588
RMackowiak	8	0.583
RZimmerman	86	0.555
POrr	13	0.462
FLopez	81	0.454
RBernadina	17	0.45
WNieves	49	0.436
WPena	45	0.367
EBonifacio	24	0.308
LMontz	8	0.25

Wow, not what I expected. Go AHern! The AG rocking it. And Ron Belliard (who I would have expected to see) tops the list among players with anything you could possibly consider a meaningful sample size (although really none of these samples are meaningful, but I digress--back to the barstool). Certainly the names on the bottom of this list can't surprise anyone. Pena, Lopez, Bonifacio all near the bottom, and poor ol' Luke Montz is the caboose.

OK, but really if you were going to say, "who was the most clutch," it's not really fair to look at it this way, just based on raw performance in clutch situations. That's because you're mixing in basic hitting ability with the ability to elevate performance in the clutch. To find out who's the most clutch, we should look at the difference between a player's overall performance and their performance in clutch situations. That way we can see who's best able to elevate his play with the game on the line.

By subtracting season-long OPS from OPS in clutch situations, we get this list:

	PA	High Lev. OPS	08 OPS	Clutch Diff.
JEstrada	8	0.75	0.37	0.38
AHernandez	22	1.12	0.789	0.331
RBelliard	69	1.015	0.845	0.17
AKearns	86	0.784	0.627	0.157
KCasto	40	0.767	0.61	0.157
AGonzalez	13	1.084	0.938	0.146
JFlores	89	0.835	0.698	0.137
RMackowiak	8	0.583	0.462	0.121
NJohnson	30	0.95	0.846	0.104
PLoDuca	32	0.629	0.581	0.048
DYoung	44	0.79	0.794	-0.004
RLangerhans	34	0.744	0.776	-0.032
ABoone	57	0.646	0.683	-0.037
EDukes	73	0.822	0.864	-0.042
RBernadina	17	0.45	0.544	-0.094
POrr	13	0.462	0.589	-0.127
CGuzman	108	0.655	0.786	-0.131
LMilledge	131	0.593	0.731	-0.138
WPena	45	0.367	0.509	-0.142
FLopez	81	0.454	0.619	-0.165
WHarris	85	0.588	0.761	-0.173
WNieves	49	0.436	0.65	-0.214
RZimmerman	86	0.555	0.774	-0.219
EBonifacio	24	0.308	0.649	-0.341
LMontz	8	0.25	0.593	-0.343

So there you have it. The Washington Nationals' Mr. Clutch 2008: Johnny Estrada. And if it wasn't for the brief appearances by Montz and Bonifacio, Mr. Choker would have been none other than Ryan Zimmerman.

Wow. Who would have guessed that? Not me. Does it matter, and should we expect these performances to continue? No and no. But danged if it doesn't make you go hmmmm... Another round, bartender!