Obsessives like me may have noticed that Chico Harlan this afternoon did a post at Nationals Journal entitled "Where Art Thou?" about Jim Bowden's apparent disappearing act. Then, some time later, the story vanished. Unfortunately, I was sucking down margaritas at Lauriol Plaza (I know, it's overrated, trendy, and annoying... it wasn't my choice) at the time and didn't see the full post. But due to the magic of RSS, I have the first few lines of the post here:
Normally, Jim Bowden travels around Florida this time of year, watching his team. The Washington Nationals expected as much on Saturday, figuring they'd see Bowden slide into a choice seat at Roger Dean Stadium, in Jupiter, Fla., for the afternoon exhibition game against the Cardinals. But Bowden never showed. In sane times, this would raise no questions whatsoever; the GM is perfectly entitled to skip a two-hour road trip. These days, though, the no-show raises antennas. After the game, in a new low for journalistic self-dignity, I drove to Space Coast Stadium. (In fact, I'm here right now.) Bowden's office is on the fourth floor, overlooking the first base side of the field. The door is open. But he's not there. And his car is not in the parking lot. What does that mean? Well, probably that his day is already over -- and not because Kasten ordered it to...
And the RSS feed cuts off there. When commenters over at Nationals Journal including me started asking "wha happen?" Tracee Hamilton in the comments on a separate post wrote "Sorry, a bit of premature posting." As Chico says, in sane times, such an event would raise no questions whatsoever. But these days, my attennae are up. If anyone else out there happens to have grabbed the rest of this post, please let me know.
FWIW, Harlan's Sunday article is up here. It seems to cover at least some of the same ground as the phantom posting.
Chico Harlan reports that Jim Bowden wasn't at the game today to see, among other things, Ross Detwiler walk four of five batters faced and fail to record an out.
Yesterday, Mike Rizzo returned triumphant from his trip to the Dominican Republic, a whirlwind tour that saw him, like The Wolf in Pulp Fiction, swooping in and cleaning up a massive mess with all the speed, efficiency, and professionalism of a master at work. (Watch that clip and just imagine that Rizzo is the Wolf, Stan is Jimmie, Jim is Vincent, Jose Rijo is Jules, Uncle Teddy is Bonnie, and Smiley is Marvin. I think it works.)
At least that's the story they're peddling, and for now I'll buy it. There are some conflicting reports about whether the new facility in the DR is "gorgeous" or just "ok," but this is a situation where "ok" is probably better than ok. When your girlfriend kicks you out of the apartment, you're pretty psyched when your buddy lets you sleep on his couch. And if someone offers you a futon in a private room, you're on cloud nine. You don't care that you have to share a bath.
The rap on Rizzo has always been that he's a top-notch talent evaluator, but that he's not that charismatic, isn't that good with press, and lacks the heft and presence for tough negotiations. If you've ever met him, you can see this isn't totally unfair. He doesn't have the gift for gab. He kind of trips over his words, uses sentences like, "We put a lot of thought and a lot of time and a lot of working into it pre-going over to the Dominican." The photo of Rizzo in today's Post in a Tommy Bahama hat and awful Aloha shirt is classic Mike. No slick package here--just a guy who can spot baseball talent but has no particular interest in the media spotlight.
Does that mean he's limited to the AGM role? The general manager needs to be able to work the press. And how is this guy going to hold his own against fast-talking slicksters like Scott Boras?
On the first score, Rizzo seems to be passing the test. The headline in today's Post was "Nats' Rizzo Proving Up to the Task." The Times headline was "Rizzo hailed for transition." You can't get much more favorable press than that. Can't remember Jim ever getting headlines like that.
On the brass-tacks negotiations, former Arizona GM Joe Garagiola, Jr., stuck up for him. From Harlan's article in today's Post:
Within the industry, Rizzo's baseball acumen is widely respected. And though some question his ability to be a deal-maker -- vital for a general manager -- Garagiola said that, in Arizona, Rizzo "handled a lot of contract negotiations. He basically handled all the Stephen Drew negotiations with [Scott] Boras, and they don't get any tougher than that."
On the talent evaluation part, there can be little argument (although if you're interested in a slightly skeptical, smart look at Rizzo's record in Arizona vs. LaCava's in Toronto, check out this post from Bucco Blog, which makes the case that although Rizzo did well, he benefitted from a number of fortunate advantages and some dumb luck).
When Rizzo took over as scouting director in Arizona in 1999, the team ranked 29th in overall minor league talent by Baseball America. When he left in 2006, they were number 1. He drafted in Brandon Webb, Carlos Quentin, Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, Micah Owings, Max Scherzer, Carlos Gonzalez, Tony Pena, Mark Reynolds... He built the depth that allowed the team to trade for Dan Haren. He basically built the entire Diamondbacks contender you see today. Yeah, he had a lot of high picks and vets to trade and support from owners to pay over slot, but you still gotta pick the right guys and develop them into professionals.
In any case, the tea leaves seem to be pointing towards Rizzo emerging as the likeliest successor to Jim. My latest completely bogus speculative theory is that Kasten's first instinct was LaCava, and he started making moves in that direction (no matter how vehemently Stan denies it, someone who works for Bud Selig told more than one reporter that the Nationals had inquired about LaCava--I suppose some Tony-lover or Jim-hater could have made that up, but I doubt it). Then, Rizzo, who from day one has made no secret that he wanted Jim's job, probably said, "look, it's him or me," and Stan decided to take some time to think it over. Maybe have Mike run down to the DR to see if he can handle being the guy in charge under duress.
This week has the feel of an audition for Rizzo, and by all accounts he seems to have aced it. We should know for sure within a few days.
Ed note: I should acknowledge that David Pinto about 8 hours ahead of me posted the exact same Pulp Fiction clip, making essentially the same joke. I swear we both thought of it on our own. Great minds think alike I guess! But to acknowledge that he beat me to the punch, I urge y'all to click over, bookmark Baseball Musings, add it to the RSS feed, peruse his excellent PMR fielding stat, and tell him I sent ya.
Pulling together the latest round of stories on the Jim Bowden death watch...
Yesterday morning on his Chatter blog Mark Zuckerman of the Washington Times had this:
Here's what I have gathered from discussions with a lot of different people, both with the Nats and outside the organization but in the know:
-- A portion of the Nats' ownership, perhaps even a majority, is ready to fire Bowden. But not everyone in ownership.
-- Several sources believe that nothing is imminent, that ownership wants to wait things out, see how the ongoing MLB and FBI investigations play out, before making a final decision. However, two other people I've spoken to in the last 12 hours believe there's a good chance the move could come by the end of the weekend.
-- If a move is made, the consensus among everyone I've spoken to is that assistant GM Mike Rizzo would be promoted. He'd probably be given the job on an interim basis, which would both allow ownership to see how he handled things while also maintaining some continuity in the organization as the season opens and (maybe most important) as the club prepares for the No. 1 and No. 10 picks in the June draft.
-- The Nats have absolutely not contacted Tony LaCava, the Toronto Blue Jays assistant GM whose name was the subject of much rumor yesterday. LaCava might very well be one of several candidates for the job if and when it becomes available, but he wouldn't be the only one and certainly wouldn't just be handed the job.
Asked by Chico Harlan if anyone else's head is on the chopping block, Stan Kasten yesterday gave another in an interminably long list of non-answers, and then lashed out at reporters for printing rumors (none of which did he specifically confirm or deny, so the only reporting that we absolutely know was false was the coverage of Kasten's own false assertion that Rijo asked for a leave to be with his ailing mom--tip to Stan, if you want accurate reporting, how about a little transparency?):
Well, related to the Dominican, I think it closes the book on Jose and the Jose Rijo complex and all of that. And that's all I want to talk about today. As I said to you the other day, I am supporting and continue to support everyone who works for the Nationals, and that's not lip service. I sincerely mean that. Having said that, there are many things going on behind the scenes that you all aren't privy to yet. When I'm able to talk to you about things I will, but I'm not going to discuss anything but the Dominican today, because I do not want to open any doors or lead you astray in any way, and believe me, I have seen stuff in the last couple days that are real head-scratchers. You know, things get out there and what passes for journalism, it just blows me away (ed note: and what passes for running a baseball team blows us all away). But I'm just not going to be a party to any discussions about anything other than this for right now.
In today's Post, Tom Boswell speculates that the team is getting ready to elevate Mike Rizzo, who is getting praise for managing the transition in the team's facilities in the DR:
"We've replaced all the staff and coaches. We're relocating to a new complex. We're out of there," Kasten said with the kind of relief that usually accompanies release from a large, gray state institution with barbed wire on top of the walls. "These [Dominican] problems have held us back for two years.
"We designated Mike to lead this project. Normally, a change like that might take a month, three months. You don't do it on the fly. We sent Mike to the Dominican on Tuesday. I said, 'Okay, Mike, you have three days.' He did it all."
Rizzo will be back here on Friday to take bows. Doesn't that sound like he's going to be the Nationals' next general manager? Or at least interim GM? Rizzo came to Washington from Arizona, in part, because it was widely assumed that he'd eventually be the successor to the more flamboyant but less Kasten-congenial Jim Bowden.
Today's Times has a story saying that Bowden's on the ropes, but that Mark Lerner is still protecting him (which means he's not really on the ropes right? I mean, everyone else on the planet could, and probably does think Jim should be fired, but if Mark Lerner still thinks he's the best man for the job, then it doesn't matter, right? Just asking...):
Jim Bowden's tenure as general manager of the Washington Nationals, a position he has held since the franchise relocated from Montreal more than four years ago, could be down to its final days.
According to team and league sources, a portion of the Nationals' ownership group is pushing for Bowden to be fired by the end of the weekend, citing an ongoing federal investigation of his dealings with prospects in the Dominican Republic as well as the club's overall struggles over the last two years.
No final decision has been made about Bowden's future, those sources said, and he continues to have a handful of supporters within ownership, most notably principal owner Mark Lerner.
Zuckerman also repeats speculation that Rizzo is in line to replace Bowden, at least on an interim basis:
If a change is made, both team and league sources expect the Nationals to promote assistant GM Mike Rizzo to Bowden's position on an interim basis. That would allow ownership time to evaluate Rizzo's performance, conduct a full search for a permanent replacement and maintain some continuity in the front office in advance of the June amateur draft.
Finally, the Post has a lengthy story in today's paper that doesn't have really any news on the Bowden front, but does include one pretty scathing anonymous quote:
Whether Bowden will be next remains unclear. Two sources said Rijo's dismissal was directly related to the signing of Alvarez. "It had everything to do with that kid," one said.
The strength of Bowden's personal and professional relationship with Rijo is indisputable. Though Rizzo traveled here to scout out the team's temporary home in the beach town of Boca Chica and to officially assemble a new staff -- one which will be headed by Fernando Ravelo, who is currently the general manager of the powerful Tigres del Licey franchise in the Dominican Winter League -- it was Bowden who called Rijo and delivered the news of his termination Thursday morning.
"That had to be excruciating for Jim," said one baseball source who knows both men well. "They're just making [Bowden] endure as much pain as possible."
The bond between Rijo and Bowden took root in Cincinnati in the early 1990s. Bowden, as baseball's youngest general manager, shaped the Reds' roster. Rijo, a World Series MVP in 1990, determined the team's mood. They shared a relationship that Doc Rodgers, later Cincinnati's assistant general manager, called "maybe the closest general manager-player relationship I've ever seen."
And the Post article does include more detail on Rijo's academy than we've gotten before, painting a picture of a sloppy, if not fraudulent, operation, tolerated by Bowden:
In the late 1990s, while out of baseball because of his arm injuries, Rijo settled on his next dream: starting up a baseball academy in the Dominican. Bowden supported the idea.
Bowden had no reservations about tying Cincinnati's fate in the Dominican to Rijo's facility, several sources said. Starting in 1997, Rodgers said, the team's Latin American presence had consisted of one person -- a scout named Johnny Almaraz. Thereafter, Cincinnati started a Dominican team, giving its players a house for lodging, but Rijo's facility represented the chance for something bigger. An arrangement was struck: The Reds would lease half of the academy, housing their Dominican prospects there. In the other half, Rijo would run a separate academy for his own players, those too young to be signed. If any of those youngsters showed potential, Rijo would give the Reds first negotiating rights.
Bowden delegated almost all responsibilities to Rodgers, several sources said, but as Rijo's facility grew, problems emerged. Cincinnati executive John Allen negotiated the rent, and the organization came away paying between $20,000 and $25,000 per month, Rodgers said -- double the going rate. Rijo struck several in Cincinnati's front office as being prone to oversight, turning in expense reports without receipts and claiming bills that weren't covered in the paperwork.
"Jose is not a detail guy," said Brad Kullman, who eventually rose to an assistant GM position with Bowden. "I don't think he is a scam artist, because he will give you the shirt off his back. But then, once he does, he will be like, 'Hey, I don't have a shirt.' "
Well, it's back to the on-field issues for me, at least for now. On Tuesday I began my run-down on the Nationals bullpen options for 2009, we'll need to sift through this spring to find five more guys after Joel Hanrahan and Saul Rivera. Having covered the most likely options to make the team, I now turn to the long shots and the "wing and a prayer" crowd.
Long Shots
Mike O'Connor
Among LHRPs, if Hinckley and Ledezma both fail, next up is O'Connor, a soft-tosser who throws lots of breaking stuff and deceives batters by hiding the ball till late in his release. It's a neat trick, but not enough to sustain success at the big league level. Last season was his first healthy year after 2006 elbow surgery. In just under 100 innings at Columbus last year he put up a nice 2.17 ERA, but he did that with a .257 BABIP. His fielding independent ERA was 3.61, which translates to a major league equivalent of 4.83. At best he'd be slightly below replacement-level filler.
Preston Larrison
NFA Brian told me he sees Larrison as a dark horse pick to click in 2009. Signed to a minor-league deal after being cast off by both Detroit and Cleveland last year, the 28-year-old accumulated an insane 68% groundball rate in 64 AAA innings last year. He doesn't miss many bats, but his command is ok. I haven't seen him pitch, but based on his statline he looks like an efficient, Saul Rivera-esque innings-muncher who will keep the ball in the yard.
J.D. Martin
A former #1 pick of the Indians who had Tommy John surgery in 2005, he finally had a fully healthy season in 2008 and posted a 2.49 ERA in 79.2 IP in AA and a 1.80 ERA in 10 IP at AAA. Even prettier were his nearly 4:1 strikeout to walk ratios. After being rumored as a potential rule 5 pick, he signed as a free agent with the Nationals. PECOTA sees him having the second best EqERA (projected ERA normalized for league and park) on the team (4.62) just after Saul Rivera.
Gary Glover
Because of the potential "G-Love's Special Sauce" jokes, I'm really rooting for him. But he's a 32-year-old replacement level bullpen arm, nothing more.
A Wing and a Prayer
Tyler Clippard
It's probably a bit cruel ranking Clippard way down here, but I just don't see how he makes the team. Scouts worry when they notice a pitcher who can't repeat his delivery. Clippard takes that to unheard of extremes, literally falling off to the third base side of the mound one pitch and the first base side the next. In about 40 big league innings he's given up 56% flyballs and walked almost as many as he's struck out. He's more like a batting tee than a pitcher. It's emblematic of our player development that he's sucking up a spot on the 40-man.
Bobby Brownlie
Last season, the 28-year-old had fielding independent ERAs of 5.17 and 6.66 in AA and AAA respectively. Why is he in major league camp?
Gustavo Chacin
Wacky delivery, lousy stuff. He was rocked for a 7.88 ERA (5.72 FIP) in high-A ball last year. If Tony LaCava decides to follow Jim's model by re-building the mediocre Blue Jays teams of yesteryear, Chacin and Towers will be a start. Otherwise, he's useless.
Justin Jones
A 24-year-old lefty with decent groundball rates to recommend him, his MLEFIP in 90.6 innings across A, A+, and AA ball last year was 5.33. He's not an option.
Josh Towers
According to MASN, the team sees the 32-year-old Towers more as veteran rotation insurance than as a bullpen option, but barring injury the bullpen is his only path to the 25-man. He's a command guy who hasn't performed at even replacement level since 2005. He spent all of last year in AAA with Colorado and finished with an ugly 6.27 ERA, but he was victimized by some bad luck and had a fielding independent ERA of 4.19. Still, even that wouldn't merit a promotion except under dire circumstances.
Luis Atilano
A TJ survivor who was traded for Daryle Ward in 2006, Atilano has conditioning problems and struggles to repeat his delivery. He's not ready.
The MASH Unit
Ryan Wagner
"Recovery from a torn labrum" remains something of a contradiction in terms. Until he proves otherwise, I'll consider Wagner damaged goods.
Matt Chico
Still recovering from Tommy John surgery, Chico could appear with the Nationals in 2009, but he won't be ready on Opening Day.
Fearless Predictions
The opening day bullpen will be: Hanrahan, Rivera, Bergmann, Mock, Shell, Colome, and Ledezma.
By the end of the season, we will conclude that the best seven relievers in 2009 were (in no particular order): Hanrahan, Rivera, Bergmann, Mock, Colome, J.D. Martin, and Preston Larrison.
He's known as a survivor, but we're moving into zombie vampire territory here. Remember when we thought that maybe he'd get might fired over Paul Lo Duca? Bah! We weren't even close.
So the Nationals begin another day with Jim Bowden's butt occupying the GM chair. Truth be told, he's been so totally undermined that it's hard to imagine what part of the GM's job he could do right now. Let's assume for the moment that the Nationals might be interested in flipping a player--oh, I don't know, maybe a corner outfielder. If I'm one of the GMs who was still taking Jim's calls as of a month ago, I certainly wouldn't now. What's the point? He clearly isn't operating with anything remotely resembling the support of ownership. There are a hundred issues large and small like this, leaving the whole organization in limbo.
Tonight ESPN reported that Mike Rizzo is in the DR working on replacing Jose Rijo as the team's director of Dominican operations and actually met with (interviewed?) Fernando Ravelo, general manager for the Dominican Winter League Tigres de Licey. Who bottom-lines that decision now? Stan? Rizzo? Certainly not Jim, right? If it was up to him, Jose Rijo would still be in charge down there. Does the decision get cleared with LaCava first, assuming he's really standing in the on-deck circle? When Ravelo was asked if he'd been offered the job, he answered "maybe." Perhaps that's a coy non-answer to a reporter, but perhaps it's an honest answer. I mean, who's job is it to offer him now?
This is such an untenable, inexplicable mess that I'm starting to come around to a conclusion I'd resisted: this delay is about money. Craig Calcaterra suggested it earlier this week--that the Nationals are waiting for the FBI to give them something incriminating in the Smiley-gate investigation so that they can fire Bowden for violating some kind of moral turpitude clause that would allow them to withhold the rest of his contract.
This theory gained traction with the Chico Harlan story on Monday, which reported:
Behind the scenes, according to sources, some within the team's ownership group -- which includes Managing Principal Owner Theodore N. Lerner, seven principal owners and nine founding partners -- are eager to cut ties with the general manager they inherited almost three years ago, and see the investigation as a way of facilitating Bowden's exit. The Nationals, one source said, are encouraging the investigation to return an answer on Bowden so the parties can "go on their merry way."
The Lerners aren't known as forgiving bleeding hearts. It's hard to believe that they are going to this length out of some wildly exaggerated commitment to fairness. So maybe Calcaterra is right, and this is just another version of the stadium rent story, a case study in extreme penny wise-pound foolishness that leads them to do real harm to the value of the overall product with a protracted PR embarrassment, all for the sake of the MLB equivalent of a few nickels.
Ed note: a previous version of this post implied that Tony LaCava may be in the DR on Nationals business. Tony is 100% an employee of the Jays, and if he's there, it's on Jays business. I didn't mean to imply otherwise, but my language was sloppy, so I wanted to be clear.
Apparently someone reminded Selig that Al Campanis wasn't such a good face for MLB. My sources (aka my gut, intuition, and the thin air) tell me Jim's still done, but I'm guessing that the league office decided maybe they should interview a black guy or two to run the team in the town once known as Chocolate City. We'll have to wait a while longer, but the outcome should be the same. At least that's how I choose to interpret this latest news from Chico Harlan:
The Washington Nationals, contrary to a published report, have neither requested nor been granted approval from Commissioner Bud Selig to forgo a rule that would require them to consider minority candidates for a general manager opening, a Major League Baseball spokesman said today.
Such a request could indicate the team is taking steps to replace General Manager Jim Bowden, whose job has been jeopardized by his role in an ongoing FBI investigation into the skimming of Latin American prospects' signing bonuses.
If the Nationals were to replace Bowden, they would be faced with a job opening at an unusual time and would want to expedite the process of filling it. Still, a league source said the team would be expected to adhere to league-mandated guidelines for considering minority candidates, should they decide to go outside the organization for a permanent hire, but would be allowed to appoint an interim GM from within the organization without following those guidelines.
The Washington Nationals have decided to fire special assistant Jose Rijo and will shut down the team's academy in the Dominican Republic as part of a restructuring of the team's operations in Latin American in the wake of an age-changing scandal involving one of the team's top prospects, several baseball sources have confirmed.
The team's academy operates out of a complex owned by Rijo in San Cristobal.
Nationals assistant general manager and vice president Mike Rizzo arrived in Santo Domingo on Tuesday to look for alternative sites for the team's Dominican academy. Rizzo also met with Fernando Ravelo, general manager for the Dominican Winter League Tigres de Licey, about replacing Rijo as the team's director of Dominican operations.
When asked whether he had been offered Rijo's position, Ravelo told ESPNdeportes.com's Enrique Rojas "Maybe."
Later:
The team previously acknowledged that general manager Jim Bowden and Rijo are both the subject of a baseball investigation in the Dominican Republic concerning the skimming of bonus money from amateur signees.
This move by Nationals ownership may not be a good sign for Bowden, who hired Rijo and has known him since Bowden was the general manager of the Cincinnati Reds, where Rijo played from 1988-2002. Bowden was Cincinnati's GM from 1993-2003.
Commissioner Bud Selig reportedly has given Nationals president Stan Kasten permission to hire LaCava without interviewing minority candidates because of the special circumstances of a change of GMs being necessitated after spring training has started.
It seems clear that BP's source is in the league office, but that the team won't confirm. One of two things are happening in my mind: 1. Stan is letting Jim twist in the wind, cackling like Mr. Burns 2. the Lerners still aren't on board
One thing I know is that Jim Bowden getting fired is great for my web traffic. I'm working on three days in a row over 1000 hits. How many grassroots team blogs get that kind of traffic in Spring Training?
Federal Baseball got confirmation from three anonymous sources for a rumor that I too had heard--that the Nationals are preparing to hire Blue Jays AGM Tony LaCava to replace Jim Bowden. LaCava worked for Kasten briefly in Atlanta and has been rumored to be a top candidate for pretty much every GM opening the last few years, including the Mariners, Cardinals, and Pirates.
At the risk of jumping the gun, I thought I'd look around to see what I could find on the would-be new mayor of NatsTown.
First, I pinged honorary Natmosphere blogger Keith Law about LaCava, and though he couldn't confirm the rumor, he said, "going from Jim Bowden to Tony LaCava would be like going from Austin Kearns to Albert Pujols." (I'm not sure Austin Kearns deserves the comparison to Jim, but otherwise I like where he's going.)
Nationals Farm Authority re-posted a blurb by Baseball Prospectus's Will Carroll from a column on up-and-coming young MLB executives. Here it is again, in case you missed it:
When you meet Tony La Cava, you learn two things. First, he knows everyone. Second, everyone loves him. La Cava might rightly be known as the nicest guy in baseball, and his extensive connections will be among his biggest asset when a team finally decides to give him his shot. With a scouting background, La Cava is known as one of the most savvy talent evaluators in the game, making him a perfect candidate for a team that needs to build through development. Most of the questions with LaCava focus on his team. Teams tend to hire from success, picking off the underlings of winning teams rather than the best of a mediocre bunch. At 46, LaCava is both young enough to have the energy to take on a rebuilding project and the experience to handle any situation. He'd be perfect for a team coming off a disappointment, says one insider. "He's a guy that can find a bright side in any thing," one journalist noted. "He could probably get more leeway on a cold start than any guy this side of Omar Minaya." It's a different style of charisma, but LaCava has "it."
Jake at Bucco Blog was a booster of LaCava's when the Pirates were looking for a replacement for Dave Littlefield in 2007. He quotes John Perrotto writing in the Beaver County Times and unnamed baseball sources:
I'm not typically a John Perrotto fan but I was surprised by his article today where he said:
"If Nutting really wants to make the Pirates competitive again, though, one man he should consider calling is Toronto Blue Jays player personnel director Tony LaCava."
Over the last sixteen days I have polled scouts, executives and others around the game, and baseball writers asking them two questions -- name the top three CEO and GM candidates for Pittsburgh.
Tony LaCava's name was in 57% of the 38 responses, more than any other person. That surprised me so I started asking more questions.
One highly respected upper echelon executive in the game today who was a member of the Pirates front office in 1979 recently told me:
"I would hope that the new Nutting ownership will be a step in the right direction. From my background, especially at the club level, leadership is the single most important element in the longer-term success of any business..
[LaCava] is a quality person and hard working. I have to suspect that he has grown considerably in his overall management capabilities in the roles that he's worked in player development. My further impression is that he's a loyal guy in his business relationships and very trustworthy, which can have a salubrious impact in an organization."
Not everything out there is unequivocally positive, however. When the Mariners were conducting their GM search, the nonpareil team blog U.S.S. Mariner did a whole series of excellent posts, starting with this "gigantic post" listing a wide range of options. LaCava was an early leading candidate and drew praise from the USM crew, but Derek Zumsteg raised a concern that LaCava might be too safe, too vanilla:
Here’s my worry, though — take LaCava or (Arizona AGM Peter) Woodfork. They may be good, but is that enough? I don’t want to be disparaging, but the AL West already has a lot of good and well-funded competition. A GM who’s on the top of the traditional, good-interview, gets-along, knows everyone pile might keep the team’s head above water but that’s not going to win championships. What makes them potentially one of the best GMs in the game, not just now but in a few years when the next crop of super-hybrid GMs arise, along with the next batch of best-of-the-old ones?
Finally, I found this two-partinterview from 2006 with the Jays blog Batters Box in which LaCava talks about a bunch of issues player development. It's hard to separate out which ideas are LaCava's and which are J.P. Ricciardi's, but there are things haven't gone so well for Toronto in the intervening years, and certainly there are things here you could pick on in hindsight if you were so inclined.
Hall of Fame broadcaster Marty Brennaman piles on in a WLW Radio interview reported by MLB Rumors via Baseball Musings:
An unsubstantiated suspicion that Nationals General Manager Jim Bowden may somehow be connected with the supposed fraudulent taking of kickbacks from young player prospects "comes as no surprise to me," says Hall-of-Fame Reds broadcaster Marty Brennaman.
Brenneman -- who covered the Reds during Bowden's rocky tenure as general manager in Cincinnati -- suggested to son Tom Brennaman in a recent broadcast commentary for WLW Radio that a history of arguably dubious dealings by Bowden indicates something may be amiss.
"That guy has been such a bad guy for such a long time that what goes around, comes around," said Brennaman, who has a reputation for outspokenness if not being altogether blunt.
Bowden -- reported by SI.com to be included in a federal investigation into the skimming of signing bonuses paid to player prospects from Latin America -- has denied any wrongdoing. No accusations against him have been substantiated, and no charges were filed against him as the result of his reported questioning by the FBI concerning related matters last year.
Bowden has become the center of a firestorm of publicity after it was revealed that Nationals player Esmailyn Gonzalez received a $1.4 million signing bonus after purporting himself to be a 16-year-old though he was actually 21. The Gonzalez rift is unrelated to a skimming probe, according to published statements attributed to Nationals president Stan Kasten, who stands behind Bowden.
A number of controversies involving trades and other personnel decisions have followed Bowden through much of his career, perhaps none greater than his firing of popular Reds manager Tony Perez after a lapse of just 44 games during the 1993 season.
Since 1995, 25 of 30 teams have made at least one playoff appearance. None were run by Jim Bowden. The five that haven't sniffed post-season over the last 12 years: Toronto, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Montreal/Washington, and Cincinnati.
Isn't that enough? Does he really have to be a felon too?
And in case you're looking for hope on the horizon, the Baseball America top 100 prospects list came out today, with just one solitary Nationals property on the list.
This, my friends, is all the evidence of wrong-doing that should be needed.
If you don't mind, I'm going to write a little bit about, you know, the game of baseball.
At the start of spring training, there are probably only two sure-things in the Nationals bullpen in 2009--Joel Hanrahan and Saul Rivera. They need five more for opening day.
You can check out the full list of pitchers in camp here. Let's take these guys one category at a time.
The inside track
Jason Bergmann
Bergmann could still end up in the rotation if there's an injury or two. His strengths and weaknesses are well-documented: he's an extreme flyball pitcher (46.4% in '08) with average K-rates (15.6%) and average command (7.7% walk rate). It's overall a below-average package. With the miserable outfield defense we're likely to have, it's even worse. Further, Bergmann's platoon splits have always been brutal--he allows a 117 OPS+ to lefties vs. a 84 OPS+ for righties. If Manny can spot Bergmann the maximum number of righty-righty match-ups, don't be shocked to see Bergmann the RP sporting an ERA in the mid-to-low 3s at year's end.
Steven Shell
The former Angels prospect was converted by the Nationals to relief, and he posted a 2.62 ERA in Columbus before getting called up in June. Over 50 big league innings, he used his 3/4 arm-slot delivery to miss bats at a pretty impressive rate (20.1%), but he's another extreme flyball pitcher (45.1%), and his command is just adequate (10.1%). Don't be deceived by his pretty 2.16 ERA in 50 innings last year. His 4.43 tRA* is a better indication of what to expect, as he got by last year on an unusually high 85.7% strand rate (70% is typical) and absurdly lucky .225 BABIP (.300-.310 is average).
Jesus Colome
He's a non-roster invitee, but he's clearly on the inside track to make the team and could easily end up as the 7th inning man. He's one of the least popular players on the team due to his slow pace on the mound, but he's given us 137 innings of above replacement-level pitching, which maybe sounds like awfully faint praise till you consider the alternative. Last year, he posted a 4.31 ERA, but if you take out the 6 runs he allowed the Phillies on May 21 and the 5 runs the Twins scored on June 18, his ERA would be 3.01. Yeah, yeah--if worms had hips they'd wear six-shooters and shoot birds out of trees. Still, Colome throws hard (95 mph average fastball) and misses bats (17.6% K-rate in '08). His walk rate slipped from an adequate 9.4% in '07 to bad 12.5% in '08. And... he's another flyball pitcher (41% in '08).
The medium-shots
WilLedezma
A lefty who throws 93 mph, he may bounce around the league a long time. He sure can miss bats (19.9% K rate in '08), but he's not going to be more than a marginal mop-up guy unless he can get his command under control (he had a brutal 15.4% walk rate in '08). Either he or Hinckley is a lock to make the team as the left-handed reliever (though neither is accurately described as a LOOGY, since neither has particularly noteworthy platoon splits).
Marco Estrada
Hallelujah! Finally a groundball pitcher. Estrada is a converted starter with an fastball-change-curve repertoire that produced a 47% ground ball rate across AA, AAA, and the majors last year. Still, he was pretty bad in his brief call-up last year, allowing 4 homers in just 12.6 innings. Baseball America says he was overthrowing and screwed up his mechanics. We shall see.
Mike Hinckley
The lefty former top prospect rebounded from years of shoulder problems last year, and no matter what, he'll always have that pretty 0.00 ERA for 2008 on the back of his baseball card. But he was lucky, and his 4.82 tRA* and 5.56 major-league-equivalent ERA in Harrisburg and Columbus are truer indications of what to expect. He's not really a LOOGY, but by that I mean he isn't a good bet for getting lefties or righties out with much consistency. He walks way too many to be consistently successful in the bigs. Still, he'll always have that 0.00.
Terrell Young
The rule-5 pick from the Reds can touch 98 with his fastball. That's the good news. The bad news is that he doesn't really have a second pitch, has never pitched above A ball, and can't really find the strike zone (career in pro ball he's walked 5.49 per 9). I like that he's a young power arm, but I'm just skeptical that the team can afford to hide a nearly un-usable rookie in the bullpen given the weakness of the rest of the staff. We'd have been better off holding onto Jhonny Nunez and not sacrificing a roster spot. The young, would-be starters
Garrett Mock
I wrote about Mock a couple days ago. I figure he's on the inside track for the bullpen, unless the team decides to re-commit to him as a starter.
ShaironMartis
The 22-year-old Olympic hero for the Netherlands was a Wowin' Curacaoan for his first two starts after getting called up last year but then turned into a Flailing Dutchman. Baseball America rated him our #13 prospect, but he slides up to #12 with Carlos Alvarez Daniel Lugo out of the top 30. His excellent change up, which comes in 11 mph slower than his 91 mph fastball, allowed him to miss bats at an impressive rate (20.6% across three levels last year), but his command isn't there yet, especially with his other off-speed pitches. And, you guessed it, he's another extreme flyball pitcher (45.6%). (My point, harping on this, in case it isn't clear, is that if you're going to load up on this many flyball pitchers, you would think you'd want a minimally decent defensive outfield. Or if you're going to have a bad outfield, maybe go after some groundball specialists. Not Jim.)
Tomorrow I'll continue with the long-shots and the loooong-shots.
Question: Stan—how much do you support Jim (Bowden)?
“Listen, I support everyone who works for The Washington Nationals—all the time—Period. But we are not going to talk about things that are going on away from here that I have no control of. I told you, I am going to allow the process to play out. We are going to let the chips fall where they may. We are going to look at things honestly and deal with them as is appropriate. Having said that, I am doing all the things that I can to speed the process up. There are many things going on that I cannot talk about. I hope to very soon.”
If Jim isn't fired, he should quit, because short of firing him on the spot that's about the weakest expression of "support" I can imagine.
The Chicago Tribune has a story on David Wilder, the ex-White Sox scout in the center of their bonus-skimming scandal.
Brian Oliver from Nationals Farm Authority weighs in with a rare opinion piece, focused on the one person who hasn't had anything to say about Jim--Ted Lerner.
And just in case you want to read about something on the field... Nationals Review looks at Josh Willingham v. Nick Johnson with inputs from Keith Law and Will Carroll.
"Follow the money" was a better catch-phrase, but according to SI.com Jorge Oquendo's links to Jim Bowden's Reds have prompted them to expand their investigation.
According to SI, Jim is now being investigated as far back as 1994 at least in part because Oquendo, who was fired as a White Sox scout after their bonus-skimming scandal came to light, was a Reds scout then. There aren't any hard facts in the story to incriminate anyone, but it's another indication that Jim is personally being looked at.
Just passing along this observation from The Hardball Times. The loss in velocity isn't news, but I hadn't seen it broken down this way:
The signings of Olsen and Cabrera give the Nationals the distinction of having two of the top five biggest losers of fastball velocity from ’07 to ’08. Here's the list of the five pitchers who saw the greatest decrease: Scott Olsen: -2.6% Dan Wheeler: -2.0% Tom Glavine: -1.8% Francisco Rodriguez: -1.8% Daniel Cabrera: -1.8%
ESPN's Jorge Arangure, Jr. has a post this morning reporting Basilio Vizcaino's side of the story on the Carlos Alvarez/Smiley Gonzalez episode.
To recap, Vizcaino was Alvarez's buscon, the personal trainer/agent/foster parent who in exchange for 20% of the player's future bonus housed and coached Alvarez for 2-3 years, according to the Post's feature on the "Smiley Gonzalez" signing at the time. Vizcaino is also a childhood friend of Jose Rijo, who, until he was put on leave yesterday, ran the Nationals operations in the DR. Suspicion was aroused when the Nationals were the only team pursuing Alvarez who dealt with the buscon rather than Rob Plummer, his official agent at the time.
The upshot is that Vizcaino says he's totally innocent and that he was duped just like everyone else. He says that the scheme was cooked up entirely by the player himself and his cousin.
From the ESPN.com report:
The trainer for a top Washington Nationals prospect who faked his age and name denied any knowledge of the player's deception and blamed Major League Baseball's investigative office in the Dominican Republic for failing to catch the scheme.
Basilio Vizcaino, trainer to Nats prospect Carlos Alvarez Daniel Lugo, said he was unaware that Lugo changed his name to Esmailyn Gonzalez and took four years off his age when he claimed to be 16 and signed a $1.4 million contract with the Nationals in 2006.
The story continues:
On Saturday, the Nationals announced that special assistant Jose Rijo, who had been credited with spotting the prospect, has taken a leave of absence. Vizcaino claims neither he nor Rijo and the Nationals did anything wrong.
Vizcaino recently spoke with Lugo, who admitted his wrongdoing and explained what had happened.
"He's sad," Vizcaino said. "He did it because he thought if he didn't change his identity he would never sign."
And the story concludes with this:
When confronted by baseball's new investigative task force, Lugo admitted he and a cousin had concocted the scheme, according to Vizcaino. Afterward, the player's visa was revoked. He has since reapplied for a visa under his real name.
Vizcaino said MLB should provide more transparency involving their investigations. As it stands, neither the player nor his representative are allowed to see the reports. The establishment of baseball's new investigative unit includes five Spanish-speaking investigators, according to one baseball source, but those investigators are used only in special cases.
"Why doesn't Major League Baseball let people see those first investigations?" Vizcaino said. "They should be investigating those investigators. If you have nothing to hide, then why don't you let your people speak openly? I have nothing to hide. Gonzalez fooled them. Yes. Who is at fault? [MLB's] investigation."
For all this to be true, you have to believe that Vizcaino met Alvarez when the player was actually 17, but that he believed his was 13. You also have to believe that this supposed 13-year-old lived with Vizcaino for 2-3 years while maintaining a pretty intricate series of lies about his name, family, really his whole life, and that Alvarez never caught on. This seems totally implausible, though it may never be proven.
Keep in mind what Barry Svrluga told us the other day in his post, "Smiley: What I Saw." He admits he should have dug deeper as a reporter, but he ultimately paints a picture of an entire family--if not a whole community--apparently complicit in the scheme, all pretending that the family's name is Gonzalez, that the kid was 16, etc.:
The list of people who lied to us - and, presumably, to the Nationals - is unknown in size, scope and specifics, but I have to believe it includes the man who was introduced to me as Daniel Gonzalez. He was, supposedly, the father of Esmailyn Gonzalez, and we met him at the family home, where folks were sitting around in plastic chairs in the dirt as some sort of chicken stewed on an overturned trash can that was being used as a stove. Was it his father? Who knows? Was his name Daniel Gonzalez? I have to think not.
Further, today's ESPN.com article tells us that, according to Vizcaino, "the baseball investigators, who are sub-contracted by MLB, visited the player's supposed hospital of birth, the player's supposed school and his hometown of Bani to interview people and to review documents. Each time the player's identity was confirmed, though major league officials were skeptical."
So, just to clarify, this scam was cooked up by a kid who at the beginning of the ruse was no more than 17, maybe younger, and his cousin, and the conspiracy was this widespread and air-tight?
Vizcaino also offers more detail about how the scam was done, though evidently this is all what's been told to him by Alvarez recently, since, as he says, he didn't know anything about it. He says that the Smiley Gonzalez $1.4 million bonus was deposited in his "real" uncle's bank account, and that's why investigators into the bonus-skimming scandal couldn't find it in the falsified Gonzalez family accounts. If this is true, wouldn't someone with the team have noticed that at the time?
Also notable is the subtle swipe Alvarez takes at the Nationals and his old buddy Rijo:
"Maybe teams need to do their own investigations," Vizcaino said. "What is the point of the Dominican office if they're simply going to allow teams to lose money?"
I obviously don't know what happened, but buck sez not one word of what Vizcaino says in this story is true.
You know how MLB Trade Rumors pulls together any and all random rumor reported out there and aggregates them into one site? It's getting to the point that we may need a "Jim Bowden firing stories" site just to keep track of them all. This morning's batch includes Thom Loverro in the Sunday Washington Times, Shysterball's Craig Calcaterra, Street & Smith's, and Chuck Hixson in the Washington Examiner.
Continuing my tour around the blogs of the NL East, today we're chatting about the Florida Marlins with Craig from FishStripes.
1. Finish the following statement: The Marlins will be better than expected if... The starting pitching staff can stay healthy. Also, the newer position players to the team, i.e. Cameron Maybin, John Baker, Gaby Sanchez, etc., need to put up at least league-average numbers at the plate.
2. And, The Marlins will be worse than expected if... Judging by the Chone and the Pecota projections, I'm not sure the Marlins can do worse than the projected finishing last in the division. Oh sure, the team's record could finish under the projections if the starting staff is riddled with injuries, the bullpen can't get anyone out, some of the "bigger name" players forget how to hit, and if they play defense like a bunch of hacks, then I guess it is possible to finish worse than expected.
3. Who will and who should close? Matt Lindstrom? Jose Ceda? Lindstrom, assuming he doesn't hurt himself in the WBC, will be the closer for the Marlins at the start of the season. Ceda was recently shut down due to pain in his shoulder and at this point it is not clear whether he will be on the 25-man roster when the season opens.
4. Who will and who should play first? First base is Gaby Sanchez's position to lose going into spring training. The Marlins feel he is ready to take over the position and he will get every benefit of the doubt. If it is determined Sanchez isn't ready then Cantu will play first and a battle for third will ensue during the spring.
5. How are you feeling about the Willingham/Olsen deal these days? Marlins fans seemed really negative at the time, but I'm not so sure it was so bad for you. "...but I'm not so sure it was so bad for you." Ah, spoken like a true Nationals fan. I think the Willingham/Olsen deal was a horrible trade. The problem with the trade was not that the Marlins traded the two, it's that the Marlins didn't receive fair value in the trade. Being a Marlins fan, while I may not like it, I'm used to the Marlins trading players, but to get next to nothing in return -- that wasn't good.
6. Why does your team own the Nationals (besides the obvious, that we stink)? Honestly, I don't know why that happens. Besides the Nationals, the Marlins had double-digit wins in the season series against the Phillies also. But yet, the Fish posted another in a long string of season series losses to the Braves. As Kelly Bundy said "it wobbles the mind."
7. What else should we watch for when the Marlins come to town this year? Going into spring training the Marlins said they wanted to run more this year. In the past two years the running game consisted of Hanley Ramirez and everyone else staying parked on the base waiting for the home run. I don't know if some of the young guys with speed (like Cameron Maybin) have the experience stealing bases to make this plan a reality. But it sounds like they are going to give it a shot, at least early on.
Or did they? If I have this right, Jose Rijo asked to take a leave of absence to take care of his ailing mother in the DR, and the team agreed because now would be a good time, given all the controversy, to take care of his ailing mother, and although he's still an employee of the team, the team can't say when or if he'll return.
Kasten said Rijo, whose mother is ailing in the Dominican Republic, met with front-office officials and decided to take this leave. He gave no timetable for Rijo's return.
"With all the questions swirling and with all the work being done still on this matter, we felt it would be a good time for him to be away from here," Kasten said. "And this is sad, but it is true, his mother has been ailing. So we said OK, this would just make more sense. So that's why he has left."
"Things are going well for [manager] Manny [Acta] and the team, and I don't want to do anything to cause problems for them," he said via telephone.
First, I send best wishes to Rijo's family. His mom reportedly has liver cancer, which is one of the most fatal forms of cancer. I've seen it up close, and it's awful. He should be there regardless of what else is going on.
Second, the way this was handled seems goofy to me. If he's being put on leave as punishment, they should just say that. You don't help him save face.
On the other hand, if he isn't being reprimanded, if the team is standing by him and simply allowing him to take leave because his mom is dying, the team should say, "look, we stand by him. He's taking care of his sick mom. Leave the guy alone." It seems really insensitive to say, "now's a good time for him to take care of his mom, who has two months to live, because he'd be a media distraction if he was here." It's a good time to be with his mom because she needs her son. Spring training is a minor consideration.
People are wondering about Jim Bowden -- Where is he? Is he talking? Is he being silenced? Well, I deliver the answers: Here, No (for today), and Yes (on issues concerning Smiley). Bowden hadn't been around before today because of the arbitration cases in Phoenix. But he spent the morning observing the workout, paying special attention to a procession of pitchers ... Tyler Clippard, Preston Larrison, Shairon Martis, J.D. Martin, Justin Jones. After the workout, the assembled Fourth Wing of Democracy types wanted a chance to speak with Bowden, but the GM said no thanks, maybe tomorrow. Later, team prez Stan Kasten said that he'd strongly advised Bowden not to speak about Frowney.
As I wrote this morning, this gag order doesn't make sense unless Bowden is about to be canned. If the team doesn't trust him, he shouldn't be GM. If he's going to stay as GM, it's a crappy thing to do to treat him like he isn't trusted.
I don't want to make too much of all this, but this is a bad situation, and the team just seems to bungle it worse with every new development.
What? Have I finally totally lost my mind and decided that Jim Bowden shouldn't be fired? No, of course not. Any GM that watches his team get steadily worse and bottom out (we hope) at 102 losses in year four should face the music.
But if the Nationals are NOT going to fire Bowden, then they need to cut out the gag orders and the "we'll see" answers to questions about his future. They need to state clearly that he's in charge and that he's not going anywhere.
The worst situation for any team, especially a long-term rebuilding franchise like the Nationals, is to have a GM publicly fighting for his job and lacking the clear support of the team. Like it or not, right now Jim's the guy in the GM chair, and to have a functioning, credible organization--any organization, not just an MLB team--the chain of command needs to be clear.
With the Nationals, no one picked anyone who works for them. Stan didn't want Jim. Jim got stuck with Mike Rizzo and Dana Brown. Manny Acta wasn't really his choice either. And Manny hasn't been allowed to pick his coaches. It's totally dysfunctional.
Unfortunately, to create clarity, the Lerners will almost surely have to get rid of either Bowden or Kasten. That's an arranged marriage that just will not work. Their styles are too different, and the lack of respect between them is obvious to everyone paying attention.
So, Messrs. Lerner, you know the decision I want you to make. But if you're not going to make that decision, you have to make some decision. Someone has to be clearly in charge with your backing, and if that's Jim, then state that clearly. Let him hire and fire his own people. If that means he gets rid of Rizzo, Brown, Manny, and replaces them with the whole extended Boone family, so be it. Let Jim sink or swim, and hopefully at some point hold him accountable for the results.
* * *
On an separate point, there's a thread of thinking in the Natmosphere, started by Chris Needham and continued this week by Harper at OMG, that the primary reason Jim should be fired isn't the performance of the team on the field but the off-field distractions.
[Ed note: Chris in the comments makes clear that I misunderstood his position, and that he and I are more on the same page on this than I had previously thought. If we disagree at all, it's probably only a matter of degrees of emphasis. The same is probably the case for Harper as well.]
As Chris wrote at season's end:
He's made some solid moves over the last few years, it's the horsecrap that surrounds him -- it's always a circus -- that means he's gotta go.
Harper states his position with a bit more nuance, but the basic gist is the same.
I don't understand this line of thinking at all. No, Jim isn't the only problem with this organization--as I just got done saying, Jim's not even totally in charge. And yeah, it's true the off-field silliness from the DUI to the Manny wig to the constant self-serving press leaks to the FBI investigation and Smiley-Gate... these things all add to the sense that there's no justification for keeping him here.
But if the Nationals had made the playoffs in 2008, there would be no conversation. He could be texting "you dead dawg" to his baby momma, and I'd still probably want him here, if the team was winning. In fact, if trend-line was even remotely positive, then there would be at least some debate in the matter. But it's not--the team is awful and just keeps getting worse, and there's basically no chance that the team will contend anytime in the next 3-4 years.
I've always recognized the litany of challenges facing Bowden in this job... the state of the Expos' minor leagues in 2004, the threadbare scouting department from '04-'06, the less-than-unlimited spending of the Lerners, the injuries... but now it's four-and-a-half years since Jim was hired as GM, and the excuses just don't wash anymore.
Even in the dark days of MLB ownership, facing contraction, playing home games in San Juan, the franchise was never the on-field embarrassment it was in 2008. As they say in the team essay about the Natspos in the new Baseball Prospectus annual, "through thin and thinner, the on-field product always retained a modicum of dignity... until 2008."
Ultimately, I agree with Boz's column on Bowden this week. Assuming Jim isn't found to be the criminal mastermind behind SmileyGate, then he can and should be allowed to save his job by simply winning. Of course, I don't think he should be given that chance, but if he stays and the team wins, then I'll have to eat crow.
In fact, I'll say right now that if the Nationals win 82 or more games this year--merely enough to get over .500--I'll back off my call for Jim to be fired, at least for the 2009-2010 off-season. See? I'm not so hard to appease. Just one more win than loss--that's all I need to give Jim a reprieve.
Winning--and only winning--will hush Jim's critics. And that's how it should be.
The guys over at Razzball asked me to participate in their team-by-team season preview, and they posted the results this morning. Here's the link, and in case you don't want to click over, here's what I wrote in response to their Q&As. But since I think the idea here is for me to help them generate traffic to their site, click the link and check it out. They have a series of previews on every team as well as other features that focus on fantasy baseball but are of interest to baseball fans in general.
2009 Nationals Fantasy Baseball Preview
We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Nationals Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Fire Jim Bowden.
1) Which Bowden Fluffer are you the most excited about? And what do you expect from them in 2009? Elijah Dukes. He has tremendous plate discipline for a player his age, very good on-base skills, and tremendous power. He gets a lot of negative press because of his track record, but from what we’ve seen in DC he’s been a good teammate and frankly pretty close to a model citizen. I’m more concerned about his ability to stay healthy than anything. In 2009, I think a .260 / .360 / .470 line is a totally reasonable projection, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him beat that by 20 points in each category. If he stays healthy and gets 500 ABs, I think we’ll see 30+ homers, 100+ RBI, and an all-star game appearance.
2) Ryan Zimmerman seemed poised for a 30/100 year until last year’s limp-wristed year. What’s your prediction for him in 2009? Zimmerman started slow, which has become a typical occurrence for him, and then had a shoulder injury that cost him two months and sapped almost all of his power for the next month after that. He finally hit his first dinger after the injury on August 27, and from that game on he ripped a .325 / .381 / .553 line. He’s not that good, but that’s a hell of a month for anyone. So I’m ready to toss out his 2008 as an aberration. That said, he isn’t a 300 / 100 guy. He’s a .280 BA, 20-25 HR guy who shouldn’t be hitting higher than 6th for a good team. And he’s one of the best defensive 3Bs in baseball. And he’s only 25. That’s a very valuable package, but a lot of people expect more because Bowden (as is his wont) way overhyped him when he was drafted, with comps to Mike Schmidt and Brooks Robinson. He always does that to players, and it’s so unfair. But whatever. This year I think CHONE’s projection for 2009 is a fair projection: 19 HR, 78 RBI, .289 BA / .364 OBP / .488 SLG. I’d be surprised if he did a lot better or worse than that, assuming he’s healthy.
3) Any optimism for the Nats staff? Any chance Scott Olsen or Daniel Cabrera are inspired by Obama and give us change we can believe in? In a word, no. I dislike Scott Olsen as a player about as much as anyone in the Natmosphere. His K rates and velocity have been in free-fall. He’s gone from 8.27 K/9 in 2006 to 6.78 in ‘07 to 5.04 in ‘08, and he’s lost 3 mph off his fastball over that time. He’s a slight flyball pitcher also, and his command is ok but nothing fantastic. It’s just not a very good package. Last year he only survived in the Marlins’ rotation because of an unsustainably low .266 BABIP. Plus, he’s probably the worst teammate and one of the bigger head-cases in the league.
I don’t dismiss Cabrera’s chances quite as much as Olsen’s, but I don’t see him as anything more than a marginal fifth starter, and I don’t put any stock in his vaunted “upside.” He just can’t hit the strike zone–he improved slightly on his 5.11 career BB/9 last year, but at the same time his K/9 fell to 4.75. He’s just very hittable. Guys know he can’t get strikes with the slider and sit on his mistakes. A lot of people are putting stock in the move from the AL East, but it’s not like the Mets, Phillies, Marlins, and Braves are weak little sisters.
The team’s rap is that Olsen and Cabrera will be as good as Odalis Perez and Tim Redding but with upside. That’s poppycock. I actually would feel better about the team starting Jason Bergmann than either of these two, but Bowden’s hated him from the start, so that’s not going to happen. Frankly, I wouldn’t be at all suprised to see Olsen shipped off to Syracuse and Cabrera moved to the bullpen by the end of July.
4) Who gets more saves for the Nats in 2009? Hanrahanananan or Saul Rivera or wildcard? Hanrahan will be the closer on Opening Day, and he’ll have to totally fall apart to lose the job. That could happen though. Last year was the first time in his pro career that he had any idea at all where the ball was going.
Rivera is an underappreciated gem. I know, middle relievers are pretty fungible commodities, but Rivera’s a groundball machine who never gives up the long ball and a total workhorse. I wanted him to close last year after the Rauch deal. But the team doesn’t see him as a closer because he doesn’t strike people out.
The wild card in my mind would be Garrett Mock. He should be given a shot at the rotation, but if he doesn’t get that he could be a back-end reliever. He’s been posting some very nice K-rates across every level since 2007, and last year he K-ed 10.1 per 9 in 41 MLB innings.
This team’s bullpen depth is really shaky. Who pitches the 7th inning for this team? Wil Ledezma? Jesus Colome? Steve Shell? Mike Hinckley? Nationals fans have been spoiled for years with stellar bullpens that have hidden our putrid rotations. That’s all over now. This year could be ugly.
I’d like to see Manny experiment with some less traditional bullpen usage this year. He doesn’t have any bullpen aces, so why not just play matchups? I don’t like the old Tony La Russa rigid 1-inning closer model anyway. But I’m not sure Manny has the vote of confidence from management that he’d need to push something so non-traditional.
One thing to watch is Chad Cordero. If he bounces back this year while the Nationals bullpen immolates, then you can go back to last July when Bowden humiliated Chief by announcing on sports talk radio 6 months before he had to that he’d be non-tendered without any notice to the player. Cordero said at the time that he was livid and unlikely ever to resign with the Nationals. Since then he’s been more forgiving, and he’s still out there, but I would be stunned to see him back, and I think the Nationals will miss him.
5) Your site is called Fire Jim Bowden. While Bowden certainly hasn’t distinguished himself as a GM, it is a tough economy and we hate to see someone unemployed. If no longer GM, what would you think would be a more suitable job for him? He desperately craves the media spotlight, and although I find his personality grating I think he was a natural on Cold Pizza.
But if you’re asking about jobs in baseball, I think he would be a valuable asset as a scout. He has a decent eye for hitters, and there’s no question that he has a knack for finding useful role players in the major league trash heap. But that’s not nearly enough to build a winner, and he has no capacity whatsoever to think long-term and stick to a plan. Any fantasy baseball amateur could match his performance drafting pitchers. He doesn’t care a lick about defense. He’s literally never drafted a middle infielder who’s gotten so much as a cup of coffee in the majors ever. So I wouldn’t want him in charge of scouting and development, but if he was just a roving advance scout with a focus on finding young toolsy bats and undervalued veterans working for a guy like Jack Zduriencik or Pat Gillick he could contribute.
The Nationals may have just missed their last chance to keep Ryan Zimmerman past his age 26 season, signing him to a one-year deal worth $3.325 million rather than signing him to a long-term deal at a discount.
Zimmerman is coming off an injury-riddled season that must have put some doubt in his mind (if witnessing the career-fizzling injures of friends Nick Johnson, John Patterson, Shawn Hill, and Chad Cordero didn't) about his ability to avoid injury for the next three years and score a big pay day in free agency. And in a down economy, everyone's getting less than they expect.
In that environment, the team had every opportunity to walk in and blow Zimmerman away with a deal that a year ago might have been considered a modest opening bid.
After watching Odalis Perez settle for a minor-league deal and Bobby Abreu sign for half of Eric Gagne's 2008 contract, I'm done trying to predict contract numbers in the current environment. But barring injury, it's hard to imagine that Zimmerman will ever be cheaper than he would have been now. Of course, that might have made Zim reluctant to do a long-term deal now too--he's gotta be thinking that if he can just go out there and do what he did when he was 21 years old (and maybe wait for the economy to settle down a little), he could dramatically improve his negotiating posture.
Still, if the team offered him a deal that would have seemed close to fair, even if Zimmerman had been healthy and the economy hadn't cratered, then surely he would have signed. There are no guarantees, and Zim is one ACL tear away from missing his last chance to set himself and his family up for life.
The team is facing similar risk-reward. If you commit $60 million or more in a player, and he gets hurt, that's a sunk cost. If you believe that Zimmerman's age 21 season was more fluke than harbinger (see Austin Kearns's career path if you doubt it's possible), then the team would be overpaying for merely solid play. But, on the other hand, if there is another level out there for Zim (and he's only 24!), he could command over $10 million a year for 6-7 years once he hits the open market, and we'll be watching the Face of the Franchise play his best years in an Angels or Red Sox uni.
I think the risk-reward calculation for the team tips clearly towards making the investment--buy out his arb years and his first 3 years or so in FA for ~$9-10 million a year, and worse case scenario (barring injury) you have a good #5 or #6-hole hitter with elite defense at a premium position. For a team that's used to blowing millions on a fraudulent teen, diabetic beluga, and drug-pushing, cradle-robbing has-been clubhouse cancer of a catcher--$60-70m for Zim seems like a pretty safe place to put your money.
There's a renewed buzz around baseball that Jim Bowden may finally be on his way out in DC. Thom Loverro, Keith Law (of course), John Heyman, Rob Neyer, the Baseball Prospectus annual, all the amateur blogs, and even heretofore Bowden-defender Tom Boswell have all once again called for Bowden's head in the aftermath of the Smiley Gonzalez / Carlos Alvarez debacle.
Indeed, Stan Kasten's response to a question hinting at Bowden's limited job security hardly rang as a vote of confidence:
"For today, there is nothing more I can say about that kind of stuff," he said. "I have an idea where you are going. I am just not ready to talk about that just yet. There is an ongoing investigation continuing, and I really need for that to play out first."
But I have to say I really doubt that Jim's going to be shown the door anytime soon. If 102 losses, Paul Lo Duca, Dmitri Young, the FBI investigation, and Chad Cordero (and did I mention 102 lossses?) didn't do it, what will?
It's an interesting question. Being caught on tape smoking crack with a prostitute? Selling the starting second base job to Roland Burris? Being caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy?
Maybe all of the above, but maybe not. I'm pretty much convinced that Jim's Rasputin, Dick Cheney, Robert Byrd, and Andy Rooney all rolled into one. He'll never lose his job. We'll have to roll him out of there in a wheel barrel.
Continuing my tour around the blogs of the NL East, today we're chatting about the World Champion Phillies with Tom from the excellent Phillies blog Balls, Sticks & Stuff.
Finish the following statement: The Phillies will be better than expected if... ...Everyone plays the way they are capable of playing. Take a look and you'll see that outside of Brad Lidge and maaaaybe Jayson Werth, not too many players had career years. Certainly Howard, Utley and Jimmy Rollins, the core of the team, didn't. That says something that the team won the World Series and there were very few "career years."
And, The Phillies will be worse than expected if... ...The pitching falters. Last year's success was all about the pitching living up to the standards the offense had been setting for years. If the pitching reverts back to 2006 or 2007 form, there could be some problems.
Why would the Phillies be willing to pay Raul Ibanez more than Pat Burrell? Beats me. Does anyone know? If they do, I would love to know the answer. My only guess is that during the summer, Burrell had turned down a deal from the Phillies that was bigger than what Ibanez signed for early in the winter. Then, the bottom fell out of the market and Burrell had to settle for even less from the Rays. I think this is a case where both the player and the team misjudged the market.
Don't misunderstand me, I think Ibanez is a fine player and probably more consistent than Burrell, who would rake for a month and then whiff for the next month, but I think the Phillies could have done better in that area.
How worried are you about Cole Hamels's health following last season's workload? Pretty worried actually. If you told me right now he'd pitch 175 innings this year, I'd go down on bended knee and thank you profusely. To be fair, he does have a very strict workout and treatment routine that kept him very healthy last year, but still, that was a huge increase in workload when you consider the regular season and the post-season.
Who will and who should win the fifth spot in the rotation? Kyle Kendrick, J.A. Happ, or someone else? Adam Eaton and Chan Ho Park are long-shots at best and I think the Phillies think Carlos Carrasco needs a bit more seasoning at AAA Lehigh Valley before getting a shot later in the summer. That leaves Kendrick and Happ and I think will get the nod, but don't be surprised if Kendrick gets at least two or three starts this summer in some fashion.
How will the Phillies get by if Chase Utley isn't ready for a significant period of time to start the season? And would you have any interest in Ron Belliard? Given that Belliard has a physique reminiscent of Pat Burrell's bulldog Elvis, we'll pass. The word right now is that Utley will be ready for Game 1, so it probably won't be a problem. If he misses, say, the first week, I think utility-man Eric Bruntlett will just fill in. On the other hand, if there is a setback and he misses a month, then we're probably looking at comeback-candidate Marcus Giles or prospect Jason Donald.
What else should we watch for when the Phillies come to town this year? The huge smiles on the faces of their fans. It was a long wait.
From Heyman's latest, which ranks each team by the success of their off-season. The Nationals rank 28 out of 30:
28. Nationals: They spent a lot of time trying to land the biggest fish, Teixeira, but ultimately it was wasted effort. Eventually, the big move involved another ex-Red, Adam Dunn. They have too many ex-Reds, far too many outfielders and first basemen, too few pitchers and one too many Jim Bowdens.
Update: Like clockwork, here's the Keith Law post. He speculates that Bowden was in on the scam and concludes with this zinger: "it's simply another black eye for an organization that is already a laughingstock in the industry."
Asked if he sought documentation at the time of the signing, Rijo said, "[Heck] no. That's not my job. That's why the major league has an investigation. Before we sign [a player] he has to go through them... You see a document, but you're going to see a, you know, a real or fake one either way. But that doesn't matter. It has to go through Major League Baseball before you can get the player signed. They do their investigation; they do everything."
Who's money was being spent? MLB's or the Nationals'? Who's responsible for ensuring that this money is well spent? The league or the team?
The correct answer would be, "Obviously I didn't do enough checking. I take responsibility. I apologize to the Lerners and to Nationals fans for wasting their time, money, and undermining their trust."
To preview the upcoming season in the NL East, I asked some of the best bloggers in the division to chat with me about what to expect from the opposition. Today, we start with my Q&A on the New York Mets with Eric Simon, one of the authors of the Mets blog Amazin' Avenue. You can also check out my chat with Eric about the Nationals here.
Finish the following statement: The Mets will be better than expected if...
The Mets get anywhere near 180 innings apiece from John Maine, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey. Johan Santana is a given, but Maine is coming off an injury-plagued season, Pelfrey threw more pitches in 2008 than he ever had before, and Perez is now both married and rich but remains as unpredictable as ever. The Mets have made a number of clear upgrades to the bullpen and their offense should still be one of the best in the league, but as spring training begins their starting rotation could be anywhere from meh to terrific. I'm pulling for 'terrific' but wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it turns out to be 'meh'.
And, the Mets will be worse than expected if...
They lose any (or many) of Santana, David Wright, Carlos Beltran or Jose Reyes for a significant length of time. That's about it, really. The Mets have enough talent to be a very good team even if their production falls short in certain areas. The only thing that could reasonably derail them entirely would be the loss of irreplaceable parts. They're no lock to make the playoffs (see: 2007, 2008), but if they aren't beset by injuries they'd have a tough time not being pretty darned good.
I'm surprised the Mets are going into Spring Training with Luis Castillo still on top of your depth chart. Will that be the case on Opening Day? At the end of the 2009 season?
Probably. Like seemingly everyone else in baseball, Castillo is apparently in the best shape of his life. He's nothing special, but his biggest problem last year was health, specifically the health of his knees. He'll never hit for much power, but given a season free from injury he can be a very useful player for the Mets. He can hit for average, draws plenty of walks, and can swipe 15-20 bags at a high success rate. He also won't embarrass them in the field. Giving him a four-year deal before the 2008 season was a mistake, but if he can stay on the field for 140+ games he can definitely be worth the $6 million the Mets are paying him.
If Castillo isn't healthy then we'll probably see more of Alex Cora than is reasonable.
Will Tim Redding make the rotation? Could Freddy Garcia or Jon Niese or someone else bump him from the fifth spot?
The numbers certainly aren't in Redding's favor, especially after the Mets signed Livan Hernandez to a minor league deal. None of the guys competing with him are particularly good (right now), but statistically he probably has an uphill battle, and I think if Freddy Garcia throws well this spring that he might have the inside track. The good news for Redding is that even if he doesn't make the starting rotation right out of camp, very few teams make it through a whole season with just one number-five starter. Others' injuries and ineffectiveness could get Redding plenty of action this year.
How are you feeling about the Lastings Milledge deal these days? Most people seemed to consider it a "win" for the Nationals at the time, but a year removed I'm not so sure.
At the time, I thought the Mets had probably improved themselves marginally in the short term but had given up a lot of value in the long term. I don't know that we can yet argue definitively one way or the other. Ryan Church had a great start last year but then was inactive and ineffective for the last four months following his second concussion. Brian Schneider was an adequate backstop but nothing to make the Mets forget about Mike Piazza any time soon (though most fans were just happy not to have Paul Lo Duca around any longer). On the flip side, Milledge wasn't anything spectacular for the Nats. He showed flashes, but overall he failed to distinguish himself from the rest of the Washington outfielderse (Elijah Dukes was much, much better than Milledge, for instance).
Overall, Church and Schneider were worth around three wins for the Mets while Milledge was worth around a half-win for the Nationals. That's a landslide victory for the Mets, but there's still a ways to go in this one.
What else should we watch for when the Mets come to town this year?
The bullpen was a real sore spot for the Mets last year. If things go according to plan, you better score your runs early because Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz are going to shut things down in the eighth and ninth.
