Saturday, May 30, 2009

The Latest on Aaron Crow

From Baseball America's draft blog:
With their first few regular-season starts in the independent American Association, Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers have solidified their position in the upper half of the first round.

Crow hasn’t allowed a run in his first two starts for the Fort Worth Cats, striking out 13 in 11 innings and retiring 31 of the 38 batters he’s faced. His stuff has been nearly as good as it was when he starred at Missouri last spring—and good enough that he could go as high as No. 3 to the Padres or No. 4 to the Pirates. He’s believed to be seeking at least the $4 million his advisers, the Hendricks brothers, asked for at the Aug. 15 signing deadline last year.

"He looks just a tick behind 2008, almost like he’s in the middle of spring training," an American League front-office official said. "I’ve seen him flash 95 mph with his fastball, and I’ve seen him flash a hard, 87 mph slider. He’s just a little inconsistent, but he’s not far away. And physically, he looks better than ever."
It's looking increasingly likely that Crow's big bet--to walk away from the Scats' $3.3 million and roll the dice on the 2009 draft--will pay off. Even with the economy, if he goes 3 or 4, he's going to come out ahead on the draft bonus. And he'll have the peace of mind of knowing that he's not going to the lousiest organization in baseball.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Can you explain how his actions paid off for him? What is that year of service time worth? Assuming that he is again represented by the Hendricks and again does not come off his 8 million dollar request until August 15, and this time signs for 4.5M, 3-4 years from now is he really ahead? You are good with numbers and the rules, so I would like to see how that works out for him.

And the last shot you made is just stupid and beneath you.

redcottageaudio said...

So basically because Bowden is prime arse-hole we lost out on what was effectively the first and third/forth pick from this draft.

Anonymous said...

his actions will pay off because he will get more money, and he will be in the big leagues in august or september for sure....oh, and he doesnt have to play for the nationals. This team is almost like the lions of the NFL to the outside of DC area public---believe me


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Anonymous said...

He will get more money, we assume, but he will get it a year later, which has a cost in and of itself. Would you rather have 3.3M today, or 3.5M a year from now? What is the value of that 3.3M over the course of a year?

PLUS he is presumably a year further away from his arbitration and free agency years.

PLUS he did take a health gamble, that he would not stumble, fall and break his shoulder, etc. - That is the gamble that paid off. That no freak accident happened to him in that time.

There are very smart people on this blog who I am sure can explain to me how much more he has to get from the Pirates (the fabulous organization that BA has picking him fourth overall) to make his gamble really pay off in monetary value.

James Bjork said...

Sure Bowden was a tool, and Kasten might have antipathy toward the reality of having to pay for top talent, but Crow was stupid to eliminate the possibility of an extra $15 mil+ season in the prime ages of a pitching career (27-32) over a few hundred thousand bucks.

Lingering in cruise control in the middle of nowhere for a year instead of likely accruing MLB service time this past year was just plain imprudent. I suspect the egos cut both ways.

Steven said...

I think it's really unclear what impact the year wait will have on his arrival in arbitration, especially if he can sign quickly this time around.

Let's look at Brian Matusz. He's the college pitcher drafted by the Orioles who is the most comparable to Crow. He's still in A ball. He's tearing up that league, and is due for a promotion soon, but he's probably not going to have a shot at the big leagues till 2010.

Crow, if he signs right away, could catch Matusz in development by the end of this year, in which case he too could be starting at the big league level early in 2010.

The reality is that the minor league season was almost over by the time the signing deadline arrived anyway. Pitching for the Ft. Worth Cats isn't *that* different than pitching for the Vermont Lake Monsters.

Then I would just add that it's interesting how the same people who act like waiting a year was some massive injury risk seem to assume that it's a lock that he'll ever make arb or FA.

Would I rather get 3.3 now or 4.0 a year from now? I don't know. Probably I'd wait, but I could see someone else making a different choice. BUT let's assume I'm going to get hurt sometime in the next 4-7 years, and I'm never going to see a big payday. This is it. My only shot at a big payday EVER. Then I surely no question wait a year (could be more like 9 months actually) for the bigger bonus.

Anonymous said...

So the wait has no impact on the player's ability to advance to the next (and lets assume bigger) contract? Assuming that Brian Matusz and Crow reach the big leagues the same day, have the same career, the fact that Matusz signed in 2008 and Crow signed in 2009 does not impact who is eligible for arbitration sooner, and who is eligible for free agency sooner?

I really am not arguing the Nats (and Bowden specifically) did not screw this up. I just find it revisionist to imply that Crow was heroic and smart for negotiating the way he did. He was dumb too.

BTW, assuming your theory that a guy signing late in 2008 and a guy signing early in 2009 are the same, then if the Nats sign their 10th pick quickly (and for less) maybe they were smart too? (I don't think so, but it can't only flow one way with that cluster&^%* of a negotiation last year.)

Steven said...

Let me try again.

I said "it's really unclear what impact the year wait will have on his arrival in arbitration." I said, "Crow, if he signs right away, could catch Matusz in development by the end of this year."

I did not say "the wait has no impact" or "signing late in 2008 and a guy signing early in 2009 are the same."

Steven said...

Assuming that Brian Matusz and Crow reach the big leagues the same day, have the same career, the fact that Matusz signed in 2008 and Crow signed in 2009 does not impact who is eligible for arbitration sooner, and who is eligible for free agency sooner?Correct. When you sign and time spent in the minors has no bearing on service time, the arb clock, or when a player becomes eligible for free agency.

Will said...

Let's at least put the blame on the proper guy for fucking up the Crow negotiations. It wasn't Bowden. He's said that he wasn't given enough money to sign Crow to what he was asking for. Bowden is definitely at fault for a good deal of the Nats' problems, but this one falls on the Lerners shoulders.

Steven said...

Before you go taking Jim's word for it, remember he's a serial liar.

I've gone back and forth on this question of who's at fault for Crow. I tend to think it's Kasten actually more than Lerner.

I mean, if Lerner's sitting there and his team president is saying to him, "DO NOT SPEND THIS MONEY. WE ARE GETTING HELD HOSTAGE BY A SCUMBAG AGENT AND IF YOU BUCKLE EVERY AGENT WILL KNOW YOU'RE WEAK...." It's hard to blame the owner for simply taking the advice of his people.

Jim gets his share too though. It seems pretty clear that the negotiation devolved into a grown-men dick waving contest on his watch. Kasten eagerly embraced it, but Jim I believe started it.