I continue my position-by-position look at the off-season outlook for the Nationals with middle infield. You can check out my look at catchers and middle infield here. The Present
Starting first baseman: Adam Dunn
Dunn was pretty much exactly as advertised in 2009--big-time power, lots of walks, plenty of Ks, and no glove. His .267 / .398 / .529 line wasn't quite good enough for another 40 HR season, but it was good enough to keep a lot of fans in their seats to wait for one more at bat.
But Dunn's defensive inadequacy remains under-recognized by fans and the media. Somehow I think that expectations for him were so low, that if he could just get through most games without three errors, fans would say he's "not so bad." Then of course you have Tom Boswell, who simply denies that fielding is much of a factor in baseball, comparing Dunn to Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron in his chats each week.
Alas, between his lack of speed and agility to poor instincts and footwork and weak arm, Dunn just doesn't have the physical tools. He's willing--I give him credit for trying. But fact is that his glove gives back a big portion of the value of his bat.
Revised Zone Rating tells us the percentage of the time that a fielder makes a play on balls hit near him. Dunn played 540 innings at first last year with an RZR of .651. The worst qualified first baseman in baseball last year was at .709. In fact, over the last six seasons, only Mike Jacobs in '08 and Dmitri Young and Richie Sexson in '07 have been worse than that. Tom Tango's fan scouting report rated Dunn a 2.17 out of five in overall fielding, one of the lowest scores of anyone in the league.
If the other metrics don't like Dunn, UZR absolutely hates him, rating him at -14.4 runs per 150 games for his career in the outfield and -17.9 at first base. And UZR had him as the single worst fielder in all of baseball in 2009. If he really was that bad, even with his big bat he was still just a 1.2 wins over replacement player--somewhere between Jack Cust and Chase Headley. I tend to think that's a touch overly harsh, but even if he's a full win better than that, there are a lot cheaper ways to get 2.5 wins out of first base than paying $12 million to Adam Dunn.
Starting third baseman: Ryan Zimmerman
Gold glove, silver slugger, big contract... Zimmy slipped on the list of best-looking Nationals behind, these, four, guys, but everything else went his way in 2009. He's established as one of the very best fielders at any position in baseball, and his .288 / .364 / .525 line, he was the fourth most valuable player in the National league by WAR, behind just Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, and Hanley Ramirez.
The question now is whether we can follow it up. Was this a career year, or has he reached a new plateau? Statistically, there's nothing about his season that jumps out as unsustainable. His breakthrough started with a big improvement in strike zone command. His walk rate jumped to a very good 10.6% from 6.8% in 2008. And finally fully healthy, his power blossomed along with his approach. His BABIP was a perfectly sustainable .317, and The Hardball Times's Projected OPS for Zimmerman was .875, just a hair below his actual OPS of .888. It's tough to expect any hitter to do this year in and year out, but I do believe that we saw the real Zimmy in 2009.
Back-up first base: Mike Morse
Once upon a time Morse was an interesting prospect. But that was when he was a shortstop with unusual size and pop. Some scouts saw a very, very poor man's Cal Ripken. But he will be 28 in 2010 and can't play the middle infield anymore. He does play ok corner outfield and first base. He's a big-time free-swinger, and he still can hit the occasional long-ball. He's a good guy to have at AAA in case you need to bring up a bat for the bench. He's not really a guy you want in your Opening Day 25.
In the Minors
Chris Marrero
Chris Marrero was a much more interesting prospect when he hit .275 / .338 / .484 at in Single-A at age 18 than he was hitting .287 / .360 / .464 at the same level at age 20. Baseball America dropped him to #6 in a weak Nationals system. He wouldn't even be in the top ten in a strong system. It's still an iffy proposition that he'll be able to play the field well enough to stay in the NL, and the bat projects more as a good #6 hitter than a true middle-of-the-order bat.
Free Agents Courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors, here's this year's list of free agent corner infielders:
First basemen Rich Aurilia (38) Jeff Bailey (31) Hank Blalock (29) Russell Branyan (34) Miguel Cairo (36) Frank Catalanotto (36) Tony Clark (38) Carlos Delgado (38) - Type B Nomar Garciaparra (36) Ross Gload (34) Eric Hinske (32) Nick Johnson (31) - Type B Adam LaRoche (30) - Type B Doug Mientkiewicz (36) Kevin Millar (38) Fernando Tatis (35) - Type B Chad Tracy (30) Daryle Ward (35) Dmitri Young (36)
Third baseman Rich Aurilia (38) Brian Barden (29) Adrian Beltre (31) - Type B Aaron Boone (37) Craig Counsell (39) Joe Crede (32) Bobby Crosby (30) Mark DeRosa (35) - Type B Pedro Feliz (35) Chone Figgins (32) - Type A Nomar Garciaparra (36) Troy Glaus (33) - Type B Adam Kennedy (34) Mark Loretta (38) Melvin Mora (38) - Type B Pablo Ozuna (35) Robb Quinlan (33) Miguel Tejada (36) - Type A Juan Uribe (31)
FJB's Take The Nationals are obviously fine at starting third base for the foreseeable future, though they don't really have very good options should Zimmerman go down, so they could afford to bring in a bench guy. That's another of the virtues of signing a second baseman like Khalil Greene or Mark DeRosa, as I advocated in the middle infield post.
First base is another issue. Adam Dunn is a free agent after this year, and it's looking less likely than ever that Chris Marrero will be the answer starting in 2011. The team has a big decision to make with Dunn. Should they re-sign him, trade him, or risk losing him for nothing but a draft pick after this season.
I continue to feel that there must be a way to trade Dunn to an American League team. He would have significantly more value to any AL team as a DH than he does to the Nationals as a first baseman or left fielder, so in a functioning market the Nationals should be able to get more value (for them) than they'd be sending away in Dunn. The Angels, Mariners, Twins, Tigers, and Rangers are all teams that make more sense for Dunn than the Nationals do. Plus, though he's not old, he'll be 30 next year, and he's not the kind of player who tends to age real well. I would be more concerned about overpricing him than selling him too cheap.
Aside from Dunn, they could trade for Dan Uggla and move him to first. I would be happy to bring back Nick Johnson, especially if you could figure out how to limit his at bats to keep him fresh and healthy. Xavier Nady is probably the best free agent available who wouldn't cost a draft pick and would likely give the Nationals as much overall value as playing Dunn every day at first. Non-tender candidates include Conor Jackson, Casey Kotchman, Andy Marte, Lyle Overbay, Mike Jacobs, Jorge Cantu, and Ryan Garko.
The premier trade candidate is Adrian Gonzalez, who will be difficult for the small market Padres to sign long-term. I don't think the Nationals have enough in their farm system to get Gonzalez, however.
My plan would be to trade Dunn and then get creative. First, I would call Cincinnati to see if they're ready to move Joey Votto to make room for Yonder Alonso. That's still probably a year away, but it can't hurt to ask, and I'd give up any prospect not named Strasburg or Norris to get him.
As I mentioned in the middle infield section, I like the idea of trading for the arbitration-eligible Dan Uggla, though he could fit in at second or even in left field at some point. If that didn't happen, I would bring back Nick Johnson and pair him with a platoon partner like Ryan Garko or Jorge Cantu, both of whom should be available for reasonable trades if they aren't non-tendered and available as free agents. If for some reason Johnson gets more than a year from someone, Aubrey Huff would be another relatively cheap option as a lefty platoon partner.
I continue my position-by-position look at the off-season outlook for the Nationals with middle infield. You can check out my look at catchers here. The Present
Starting second baseman: Cristian Guzman
It's impossible to say with 100% certainty at this point what the starting middle infield will be, but for now we're told that Cristian Guzman is the starter at second base, a position he's played exactly never at any professional level ever.
The team explains the move by pointing to Guzman's supposedly declining infield range. As I've pointed out before, there's not much evidence that Guzman's range is actually getting any worse. It's never been good, and some people have chosen to ignore that in the past, but it really isn't any worse.
In 2009, he made 43 out of zone plays in 993 innings. In 2005, he made 47 out of zone plays in 1161 innings. UZR actually says Guzman had the best season since 2004 with 2.0 runs above average in range runs (runs prevented defensively based on fielding range). Whatever, Guzman's glove has never been very good, and it's still not good, and at age 32 it isn't getting any better.
All things equal, second base is an easier position to play, and that should be worth something. Then again, all things might not be equal. Guzman's arm has never really been his problem, and the move to second will diminish slightly the value of his best defensive tool. The lack of experience won't help him, as he'll have to get used to turning the double play the other way, etc. And of course there's been a lot of speculation that he just doesn't want to do it, which certainly won't help.
The big question is why the team didn't bother to run him out to second at least a few times in late 2009. Jim Riggleman told Nationals bloggers last week that the reason was that Guzman's shoulder was hurt, so he couldn't play second. But that was a bunch of hooey.
Mike Rizzo started talking publicly about Guzman as a possible second baseman in late August (presumably they'd been talking about it internally for a while before that), and Riggleman kept sending Guzman out to shortstop almost every day for another month after that. And remember the talk about how Ian Desmond couldn't start because the veterans "deserved" to play?
Bottom line, the move could be worth as much as an additional win in runs prevented, or it could be a net-negative. We'll just have to wait and see.
As for Guzzy's bat, he managed to drive his walk rate down all the way to 2.9%, the second lowest in all of baseball behind Bengie Molina. His OBP has declined from .380 to .345 to .306 over the last three seasons. His walk rate isn't helping, but it's his declining BABIP that's really hurt him. Lady luck has soured, and fewer balls are dropping for him, plain and simple. This year he finished at .322, which is actually still a bit on the fortunate side, and chances are his BABIP, OBP, and overall value as a hitter will fall even further in 2010. That is, unless he starts taking more walks. Then again, the gods of BABIP might smile on him for another 500 ABs--stranger things have happened.
Starting shortstop: Ian Desmond
It seems pretty unlikely that Desmond will be the starting shortstop on Opening Day, but for now there's no one in the organization ahead of him.
Desmond was nothing short of spectacular in his 21-game cameo at the end of the season. He hit seven doubles, two triples, and four homers in 89 plate appearances, enough to give him the highest ISO power (SLG minus BA) on the team, besting Adam Dunn .280 to .262.
But as they say, beware August scouting. He's never hit more than 13 homers in any professional season. Ian Desmond has some nice gap-to-gap power, but he just isn't that guy. The numbers that mattered for Desmond were his falling strikeout rate and rising walk rate. In 178 PA at Triple-A, he posted a career-best 0.65 BB:K ratio, resulting in a ridiculous .428 OBP. He wasn't the second coming of Cal Ripken, but he was certainly good enough to be in the bigs.
Whether he can continue that against higher levels is another question. While he was tearing the cover off the ball in September, he also saw his walk rate was just 5.8% for the Nationals. He'll have to get back to basics to survive, especially after pitchers get two and three looks at him.
Then, there are the errors. Six errors in 113 chances is just way too many. While his athleticism allows him to make some great plays, he's always had a problem handling the routine ones. You'd think at some point this would get solved, and he'd become a true plus-fielder, but at age 23, you start to wonder.
Back-up infielder: Alberto Gonzalez
In 2009, Gonzalez turned 26. The season before he'd been traded to the Nationals and reunited with Mike Rizzo, the scouting director who originally signed him in Arizona back in 2002. Injuries, trades, and poor performances opened up repeated opportunities for him to grab a starting job. Everything was teed up for the AG to have the year of his life.
And he crapped the bed over, and over, and over. He made a whopping ten errors in 340 chances. He finished with a miserable .265 / .299 / .351. He wished he was replacement level. He's still young enough that he could rebound and earn a back-up infield job at some point in the next year or two, but his days as a guy who might matter are over.
In the Minors
Danny Espinosa
The latest product of the Long Beach State shortstop factory delivered big time in his first full pro season. He hit .264 / .375 / .460 at A+ level Potomac and earned himself an invite to the prospect showcase Arizona Fall League. There, he earned rave reviews while hitting .345 / .434 / .460. He had arguably the best minor league season ever for a Nationals position player not named Derek Norris.
Espinosa does everything well. He has a mature plate approach, fields his position well, and hits for some power. His upside is limited, and he faces a big step up to Double-A Harrisburg this year, but he has the look of a future starter in the majors, maybe as soon as 2011.
Jeff Kobernus
The Nationals' second round pick out of California, Kobernus got hurt right away but will be ready for 2010. He's a Mike Rizzo type--good make-up, good defensive tools, not particularly high upside. Baseball America has him as the #7 prospect in the organization, but in a top farm system he'd be closer to 15 or 20. If he advances quickly, he might have a shot to compete for a starting job at second base after Guzman leaves.
Free Agents Courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors, here's this year's list of free agent middle-infielders:
Second basemen Ronnie Belliard (35) - Type B Jamey Carroll (36) Alex Cora (34) Craig Counsell (39) Mark DeRosa (35) - Type B ChoneFiggins (32) - Type A (note: not listed as a 2B on MLB Trade Rumors) Nick Green (31) Jerry Hairston Jr. (34) Orlando Hudson (32) - Type A Adam Kennedy (34) Felipe Lopez (30) - Type B Mark Loretta (38) Pablo Ozuna (35) PlacidoPolanco (34) - Type A Luis Rodriguez (30) Juan Uribe (31)
Shortstops Eric Bruntlett (32) Orlando Cabrera (35) - Type A, can't be offered arbitration Juan Castro (38) Alex Cora (34) Craig Counsell (39) Bobby Crosby (30) Adam Everett (33) Chris Gomez (39) Alex Gonzalez (32) Nick Green (31) Khalil Greene (30) Jerry Hairston Jr. (34) John McDonald (35) Luis Rodriguez (30) Marco Scutaro (34) - Type A Miguel Tejada (36) - Type A Wilson Valdez (32) Omar Vizquel (43)
FJB's Take The cupboard certainly isn't bare long-term, but the outlook for 2010 is grim. Guzman's an iffy proposition at second, Desmond probably isn't ready, and this list of free agent shortstops is ugly, ugly, ugly.
The shortstops divide into three basic categories: type-A guys who aren't going to be worth near what they cost (Tejada, Scutaro), glove-only guys who can't hit a lick (Gonzalez, Everett, Vizquel), and a bunch of guys who really shouldn't be in MLB. The Nationals seem committed to signing a gloveman, and if they do my pick would be Vizquel. But you would hope to do better.
There are two guys who might fall outside these categories: Khalil Greene and Orlando Cabrera. Greene averaged .256 / .313 / .446 with 18 homers a year from 2004-2007 while playing half his games in Petco. Then, in 2008, every part of his game totally collapsed, especially, his strike zone command, and he was one of the very worst every day position players in all of baseball. Then he was traded to St. Louis and was a popular pick to bounce back in 2009. It didn't happen. He had some injuries, but mostly he was terrible, especially defensively. Still, Greene will be just 30 in 2010, and he would come cheap. It might be interesting to give him a look as a second baseman/utility man and see what happens.
Cabrera looked over the hill in 2009, and indeed he might be. His once-solid defense fell a whopping 26.8 runs in UZR, and he struggled to keep up with any kind of fastball. Still, he made enough contact to finish with a respectable .284 / .316 / .389 line. He's a type-A free agent, but his contract says he can't be offered arbitration, so he won't cost anything in draft picks. He got one year and $4 million from the A's last year, and for that much he might be the Nationals' best option.
Given the thin free agent market, the Nationals will have to look to make a trade to improve. J.J. Hardy was my top choice, but that's over now. Other guys who might be available: Reid Brignac (Rays prospect blocked by Jason Bartlett), Chin-Lung Hu (Dodgers prospect blocked by Rafael Furcal), Ryan Theriot (the Cubs may be looking to make room in 2010 for top prospect Starlin Castro, though probably not till mid-season), MaicerIzturis (awful lot of shortstops in Anaheim), and Mike Aviles (for whatever reason Dayton Moore loves the awful YunieskyBetancourt, and Alberto Callaspo's established at second). Or how about this one: Jose Reyes! The Wilpons lost a lot of Madoff money.
The second base market is much better looking, though the top players will likely cost more than what would make sense for the Nationals. Some fans might want to see more spending just for the sake of spending, but the reality is that giving up the first pick in the second round and committing multiple years to an over-30 middle infielder like Orlando Hudson or ChoneFiggins or PlacidoPolanco probably takes you further away from a winner.
But a guy like Mark DeRosa is interesting, as are likely trade candidates like Brandon Phillips, AkiIwamura (too late--already went to Pittsburgh for this guy), Dan Uggla and Kelly Johnson. You have to wonder if Rizzo is missing the best opportunities to improve by fixating too much of fielding and locking Guzman in at second. We'll see.
So enough equivocation. Here's my plan. Step one: commit to playing Desmond at Triple-A and Espinosa at Double-A at least until the All-Star Break. Nothing trumps their development. Step two: be ready to move Guzman, but don't lock that in. Be flexible enough to keep him at short to start the season. Step three: sign either Vizquel, Gonzalez, or Everett. Step three: offer J.D. Martin and/or anyone else outside outside the top fifteen or so on this list for Uggla, Aviles, Theriot, or Hu, etc (Hardy and Iwamura would have been on this list a few weeks ago as well). If no takers, sign Mark DeRosa or Orlando Cabrera. Be willing to overpay in dollars but not years; if you can't get them for a one-year deal under $8 million or so, fine. Also take a flier on Khalil Greene. Then, see how things shake out between now and the trading deadline next summer, and if everyone works out, pick two of the younger guys and ship everyone else (including Guzman) to whoever wants them.
Nationals fans lost one of the best damn things about being a Nationals fan (not much competition, but still) today, as Washington Post beat writer Chico Harlan announced he's leaving the job.
Chico had the job for less than two full years, but by the time he hit his stride this season, he was a real pleasure to read. He was well known for his excellent writing and story-telling ability. Harlan's stuff was at least three grade levels above the rest of the Post.
And he clearly took a "student of the game" approach to the job. He knew plenty about the game when he started, but close readers couldn't help but notice that he was a sharper analyst and observer with each passing month on the beat.
But what I really came to love about Harlan's gamers was his blunt willingness to tell it like it is. With the absurd, eye-rolling optimism that you hear from guys like Bob Carpenter, Byron Kerr, and Johnny Holliday, with all their arbitrary end points analysis and willingness to repeat the StanSpeak unfiltered--you could always count on Harlan for a straight shot of truth.
He wasn't mean or biased, he just refused to polish that turd. And let's be honest--you had to have a special talent as a storyteller to accurately portray how awful the Nationals have been the last two years and really bring it to life. For me, it was like therapy.
Good luck, Chico. And make sure to leave the next guy your copy of Baseball Between the Numbers. I don't want to have to start over on why RBIs are a dumb stat.
Starting with this post, I'm going to use the next week or two to look at the Nationals' current personnel organization-wide and the opportunities to upgrade this off-season.
I have two key questions in mind, the first far more important than the second: 1. what can we do to speed the arrival of The First Great Nationals Team (I have what I think is an optimistic but not delusional goal of 2012 in mind), and 2. what can we do to move towards respectability in 2010.
The first step is to evaluate accurately and honestly where we stand now, and the next step is to look at opportunities to upgrade. Today, I'm starting with the catcher position.
The Present
Starting catcher: Jesus Flores
You wouldn't know it from most of the press clippings, but 2009 was a bit of a make-or-break season for Jesus Flores. In 2008, his plate discipline had regressed to almost total non-existence, and he finished the year with a .256 / .296 / .402, ranking among the worst offensive catchers in baseball. Still only 24, he had plenty of time, but it seemed that the lost developmental time as a rule 5 pick was seriously catching up with him. Flores needed to have a strong April and May to avoid a humbling trip back to AAA.
He got it. Flores swung at fewer pitches out of the zone (34.0% to 36.9%) and saw his walk rate jump from a miserable 4.7% to an above-average 10.6%. He's not nearly as good as his .301 / .371 / .505 would suggest, as his .381 BABIP is due for major regression. But still, he was much, much better, especially against right-handed pitching. Whether it was fatigue, experience, Rick Eckstein, or something else, he was basically a totally different hitter in May 2009 than he was in August 2008.
Then, a stress fracture in his shoulder ended his season early for the second-straight year. So what is Flores heading into 2010? It's not clear when he'll be 100% health wise, and the rehab in the minors may do him good anyway. So given his health, the team needs to be ready for someone else to take half or more of he ABs at catcher this season.
Longer-term, Flores will turn 25 later this month, still very young, especially for a catcher. He remains a nice up-and-coming talent in the organization, but his ceiling at this point is probably more like Brian Schneider than Jorge Posada. Mike Rizzo can't be satisfied penciling his name at the top of the organizational depth chart for the next three years.
Back-up catcher: Wil Nieves
Wil Nieves continued in 2009 to scrape by at replacement level by taking a few walks and putting the ball in play. Still, he's 32, hits right-handed (the same as Flores), and has less than zero upside. He'll be arbitration-eligible for the first time in his career this off-season, which is an achievement the team will reward by non-tendering him faster than you can say, "who?" That doesn't mean he won't be back, but if the Nationals pay him much if anything over the minimum, that's crazy.
With all the free advertising Nieves has gotten over the last year or two, he should just retire now and focus on opening a nightclub near the stadium. If he could just get all the ladies who have been buying $8 beers from Ted Lerner to watch him buy $8 rail drinks from him, he'd be on his way.
In the Minors
Derek Norris
The Nationals' minor league player of the year in 2010, Derek Norris emerged as the best hitting prospect the team has seen since Ryan Zimmerman. He's always shown advanced plate discipline, and that continued this year at Hagerstown with a 17.1% walk rate. But it was his power that really had him rising up the prospect lists, as he slugged 23 dingers and 30 doubles, good for a .227 ISO power. He also threw out 36% of base-stealers, though he's considered a work-in-progress as a receiver. At age 21, he's still a year or two away, and he has many more hurdles to clear (especially sticking at this position), but at the moment he has the look of a star in the making.
Adrian Nieto
The Cuban fifth-round draft pick in 2008 had a fine first full season in pro ball. The good: he took lots of walks (12.8%) and threw out 44% of base-stealers. The bad: just seven of his 31 hits went for extra bases, and none were homers. That's not a knock on the 19-year-old, so much as a recognition of how far he is away from the big leagues. I'll look for him to get a little stronger this year while maintaining his mature approach as he moves up in 2010.
Free Agents Courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors, here's this year's list of free agent catchers:
Eliezer Alfonzo (31) Brad Ausmus (41) Paul Bako (38) Rod Barajas (34) - Type B Josh Bard (32) Michael Barrett (33) Henry Blanco (38) Ramon Castro (34) Chris Coste (37) Sal Fasano (38) Toby Hall (34) Ramon Hernandez (34) - $8.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout - Type B Jason Kendall (36) - Type B Jason LaRue (36) Chad Moeller (35) Bengie Molina (35) - Type A Jose Molina (35) Miguel Olivo (31) - Type B Mike Redmond (39) Ivan Rodriguez (38) - Type B Brian Schneider (33) Yorvit Torrealba (31) - Type B Matt Treanor (34) Javier Valentin (34) Vance Wilson (37) Gregg Zaun (39) - Type B
FJB's Take Last year at this time, I advocated that the Nationals send Nieves to the minors and see if they can swing a trade for a younger catcher with upside like Miguel Montero, Jason Jaramillo, or John Jaso. I love Norris and Flores is a nice young guy to have around, but there are too many question marks with catchers. Failing that, I called for upgrading over Nieves with a better veteran switch-hitter like Josh Bard or Greg Zaun.
This year, some of the names have changed, but I more or less advise the same course of action.
Intriguing younger trade candidates out there include Chris Iannetta (Torrealba's a free agent and Iannetta's arbitration-eligible, so they have to choose), J.R. Towles (Houston's former catcher of the future now passed by Jason Castro), Wilson Ramos (the Twins prospect blocked by Joe Mauer), Bryan Anderson (good left-handed contact hitter blocked by Yadier Molina), Max Ramirez (Texas has a mountain of good young catchers, and MaxRam is coming off an injury-plagued down year), and Chris Snyder (benched for Miguel Montero).
If the Nationals could trade from their bounty of back-end cheap starters (Craig Stammen, J.D. Martin, Garrett Mock, or Shairon Martis...) for one of these guys, that would make a lot of sense.
If forced to sign a free agent, all you can hope for is to get a Josh Bard, not a Johnny Estrada. I don't see anyone on this list who's better than a stop-gap option just to get by. Torrealba's probably the best of the group, but he's not going to sign with a team that doesn't consider him a #1. The Nationals should pass on the type As to protect their draft picks. Of the rest, but Greg Zaun and Rod Barajas would be upgrades over Nieves. Or they could bring back Josh Bard.
Check out the discussion with John Manuel and Aaron Fitt here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/media/podcasts. They discuss all the NL East teams, but they lead off with the Nationals.
Rizzo reality check moment: John says Drew Storen, the Nationals' #3 prospect, would rank #9 in the Phillies system.
Today, Jim Riggleman graciously participated in a conference call with Nationals bloggers this afternoon. You can listen in on the audio at the Natmosphere in your Ear podcast page here. (There's a little tech issue at the start, but the thing gets going within just a few seconds.)
That's my interpretation of the Jim Riggleman's comment today that Cristian Guzman will be the team's second baseman in 2010.
(Of course, this was a Bill Ladson report, so there's always a chance that the old Hamburgler just made it up.)
Barring a trade, which is all but impossible with Guzman's $8 million contract, Guzman was always going to be in the starting lineup somewhere in 2010. Guzman isn't really in decline, but Rizzo wants to upgrade the infield defense, and typically moving a guy from short to second is worth about four runs or half a win over the course of a season.
Going into the off-season, I thought their best course of action would be to shop for the best shortstop or second baseman that they could find, and then stick Guzman wherever's left. Given that the second base market is a good bit stronger than shortstop, I hoped they'd keep their minds open a bit. Mark DeRosa is a far better player than any free agent shortstop out there.
And Dan Uggla, who is being shopped by the Fish, plays bad defense, but his bat makes up for plenty, especially compared to a guy like Adam Everett. If the Marlins wanted to salary-dump Uggla for another C-minus prospect, I'd do that.
(Sorry all you Marco Scutaro fans, but I'm assuming the Nationals won't be giving up any draft picks to sign a type A free agent this off-season, and I hope I'm right.)
But it appears that if Guzman is locked into second. Ian Desmond will get some looks at short and will probably be starting by loss #80 or so. But I see really no chance that Rizzo goes into spring training with Desmond as plan A at the position.
So it looks like we'll be shopping from a list of glove-first shortstops including the aforementioned Everett, Alex Gonzalez, Omar Vizquel, or Jack Wilson (if Seattle declines his $8.4 million option). My money's on Everett.
I was just about to post a comparison between Riggleman and Bobby Valentine, the reported "other" final candidate. (Kind of rude for Rizzo to scoop me--where's the love for a fellow Illini, Mike?). But I thought I'd share what I got anyway.
One of my bigger gripes with Riggleman was the Nationals' miserable performance in the running game. The team had a 70% success rate on steal attempts under Interim Jim, the second worst of any manager in baseball this year. That's bad, but compared to Valentine, Riggleman was practically clairvoyant when it came to sending runners. In his time in with the Mets, Valentine's teams had stolen base success rates of 56.7%, 57.4%, 71.1%, 58.9%, 57.9%, and 67.4%. Blech.
Then there were the sacrifices, bunts, and suicide squeezes. Riggleman called 50 sac attempts in 75 games, a 108-sac pace that made him the third most frequent spoiler of outs in baseball. In New York Valentine, ranked #14, 4, 12, 8, 16, and 6 in sac bunt rate from '97-'02. For an NL team, that's hardly makes him a sac bunt addict, but he also didn't exactly eschew the bunt either. Riggleman also gives away far too many baserunners. In 75 games, he issued 33 intentional walks. Projected over a full season, that would give him 71.3, three more than Joe Torre's MLB-leading 68. Valentine wasn't much better though, averaging 53.3 IBBs per year and ranking #11, 3, 5, 13, 5, and 5 in the league from '97-'02. Again, for an NL manager he wasn't the worst offender imaginable, but that's still far too many.
Of course, any list of complaints about Jim Riggleman starts with his inability to keep young pitchers out of Birmingham. From Kerry Wood to Jeremi Gonzalez to Jordan Zimmermann to Craig Stammen, young pitchers in Riggleman's care sooner or later find their way to the DL. He hasn't successfully transitioned any prospect--pitcher or position player--from the minors to the big leagues since Joey Hamilton in San Diego in 1994, and he's shown precious few signs of lessons learned.
While in New York, Valentine rarely had a pitcher among the league leaders in pitcher abuse points. He put a swift end to the meat-grinder treatment that ruined the "Generation K" trio of Jason Isringhausen, Paul Wilson, and Bill Pulsipher under Dallas Green. For that reason alone, I was rooting for Valentine to get the job over Riggleman.
But that's probably not what the team had in mind when considering him. What Valentine--and Mattingly, for that matter--would have brought is some splash, a bit of name recognition and box-office appeal. But the team wasn't about to make an offer Valentine or Mattingly couldn't refuse--that's not the Nationals' way. And let's face it, neither of these guys were coming to DC unless they got Godfather money.
So for all practical purposes, it was Fizzleman from the start. Oh well. At least we don't have to feel conflicted when it comes time to call for his head. And I give him a year. If he survives in this death march of a job longer than Manny did, then he'll really have achieved something.
Brian and Steven discuss the off-season outlook for Nationals starting pitching, including our picks among the (underwhelming) free agent class. Download the podcast here, and while you're there, subscribe on I-Tunes or whatever podcatcher you use.
As soon as the World Series is over, the real off-season starts for teams like the Scats, and I'll start posting again. For now, enjoy this from the Daily Show if you haven't seen it. The reason why we so loathe the invaders at Scats Park from NY and Philly.
FJB is a Washington Nationals blog written with an emphasis on statistical analysis, an appreciation for defense and player development, and a strong conviction that a well-run team should win, no excuses.
