Monday, February 1, 2010

82 Wins for the Scats? Eh, Nevermind

PECOTA has been working out the glitches in the ol' MySQL query that inexplicably led them to project the Nationals as an 82-win team last week. They bumped the projection down to 81 wins the day after the inital post, and their latest update has the Scats down to 76 wins.

My wins above replacement projection has them at 74 wins, and personally I'd take the under and bet pretty big. I still think PECOTA is expecting way too much from J.D. Martin (23 starts, 4.14 ERA), Cristian Guzman (.329 OBP, 70% of the starts at 2B), Jesus Flores (enough health for 433 PA), Willie Harris (21 VORP), Stephen Strasburg (99 IP, 3.74 ERA), Scott Olsen (an ERA under 8 and more than 30 innings pitched), and any kind of above-replacement performance from Logan Kensing, Shairon Martis, Eddie Guardado, Miguel Batista, Collin Balester, or Alberto Gonzalez.

But, at least they're in the same hemisphere as reality at this point. And you can't blame them for failing to admit their blunders.

1 comment:

natsstats said...

I totally blame Larry Ellison for this. The European Union balked at Oracle's acquisition of Sun because they were worried about the impact on mysql. Not one week after the acquisition is complete, mysql queries show the Nats in a pennant race. Coincidence? I think not.