Also, for those interested in the details, I have updated the projection to use CHONE across the board. Last time I used Bill James, because that was the only one out. In the past I've like CHONE for hitters and PECOTA for pitchers, but I'm not convinced that PECOTA has ironed out all their bugs.
Here are the hitters:
| Pos | Name | PT | wOBA | FRAA | WAR |
| C | Jesus Flores | 60% | 0.324 | 0 | 1.70 |
| C | Ivan Rodriguez | 40% | 0.29 | 0 | 0.31 |
| 1B | Adam Dunn | 65% | 0.378 | -8.43 | 1.79 |
| 1B | Mike Morse | 35% | 0.343 | 0.34 | 0.53 |
| 2B | Adam Kennedy | 75% | 0.313 | 1.76 | 1.00 |
| 2B | Willie Harris | 25% | 0.328 | -1.06 | 0.49 |
| SS | Cristian Guzman | 75% | 0.316 | -1.95 | 1.24 |
| SS | Ian Desmond | 25% | 0.324 | -4.51 | 0.47 |
| 3B | Ryan Zimmerman | 85% | 0.379 | 10.09 | 5.22 |
| 3B | Ian Desmond | 15% | 0.324 | 0 | 0.27 |
| RF | Elijah Dukes | 80% | 0.351 | 1.91 | 2.12 |
| RF | Mike Morse | 20% | 0.343 | -0.29 | 0.39 |
| CF | Nyjer Morgan | 85% | 0.321 | 8.48 | 2.11 |
| CF | Willie Harris | 15% | 0.328 | -0.56 | 0.30 |
| LF | Josh Willingham | 80% | 0.361 | -6 | 2.77 |
| LF | Adam Dunn | 20% | 0.378 | -10.79 | 0.60 |
|
| Total |
|
|
| 21.32 |
And the pitchers:
|
|
| IP | FIP | WAR |
| SP | Jason Marquis | 180 | 4.46 | 2.06 |
| SP | John Lannan | 170 | 4.82 | 1.27 |
| SP | Craig Stammen | 130 | 4.96 | 0.77 |
| SP | Garrett Mock | 130 | 4.28 | 1.74 |
| SP | J.D. Martin | 120 | 4.77 | 0.96 |
| SP | Scott Olsen | 90 | 5.12 | 0.38 |
| SP | Ross Detwiler | 90 | 4.44 | 1.05 |
| SP | Stephen Strasburg | 40 | 4.18 | 0.58 |
| RP | Matt Capps | 65 | 3.82 | 0.49 |
| RP | Brian Bruney | 50 | 4.35 | 0.08 |
| RP | Tyler Clippard | 65 | 4.2 | 0.21 |
| RP | Tyler Walker | 50 | 4.29 | 0.12 |
| RP | Sean Burnett | 55 | 4.63 | -0.08 |
| RP | Jason Bergmann | 70 | 4.47 | 0.02 |
| RP | Miguel Batista | 30 | 4.86 | -0.12 |
| RP | Doug Slaten | 40 | 4.07 | 0.19 |
| RP | Collin Balester | 50 | 5.06 | -0.31 |
| RP | Drew Storen | 20 | 5.88 | -0.30 |
|
| Total | 1445 |
| 9.12 |
3 comments:
This may be a stupid question but based on these numbers, does that mean that a team comprised entirely of "replacement" level players should in theory win 44 games?
As a suffering ST holder, after the last 2 years, I'll be elated if they can win 74 games.
Rob--yes.
Deez--I hear you. One bit of context to keep in mind is that the projection systems all assume a decent amount of regression to the mean. Since 100+ losses is statistically a large deviation from the mean, the statistical projections like PECOTA, Bill James, CHONE, etc., will basically never project 100 losses. This isn't a prediction so much as the statistically most likely outcome.
Personally I'd bet the under, by a decent amount.
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