Sunday, February 7, 2010

Updated Nationals Wins Above Replacement Projection

All the comings and goings, and the Nationals still project to... 74 wins, same as last time. Just not enough impact from any of these guys, though I think there's less potential for cratering from this group.

Also, for those interested in the details, I have updated the projection to use CHONE across the board. Last time I used Bill James, because that was the only one out. In the past I've like CHONE for hitters and PECOTA for pitchers, but I'm not convinced that PECOTA has ironed out all their bugs.

Here are the hitters:
Pos Name PT wOBA FRAA WAR
C Jesus Flores 60% 0.324 0 1.70
C Ivan Rodriguez 40% 0.29 0 0.31
1B Adam Dunn 65% 0.378 -8.43 1.79
1B Mike Morse 35% 0.343 0.34 0.53
2B Adam Kennedy 75% 0.313 1.76 1.00
2B Willie Harris 25% 0.328 -1.06 0.49
SS Cristian Guzman 75% 0.316 -1.95 1.24
SS Ian Desmond 25% 0.324 -4.51 0.47
3B Ryan Zimmerman 85% 0.379 10.09 5.22
3B Ian Desmond 15% 0.324 0 0.27
RF Elijah Dukes 80% 0.351 1.91 2.12
RF Mike Morse 20% 0.343 -0.29 0.39
CF Nyjer Morgan 85% 0.321 8.48 2.11
CF Willie Harris 15% 0.328 -0.56 0.30
LF Josh Willingham 80% 0.361 -6 2.77
LF Adam Dunn 20% 0.378 -10.79 0.60

Total


21.32

And the pitchers:


IP FIP WAR
SP Jason Marquis 180 4.46 2.06
SP John Lannan 170 4.82 1.27
SP Craig Stammen 130 4.96 0.77
SP Garrett Mock 130 4.28 1.74
SP J.D. Martin 120 4.77 0.96
SP Scott Olsen 90 5.12 0.38
SP Ross Detwiler 90 4.44 1.05
SP Stephen Strasburg 40 4.18 0.58
RP Matt Capps 65 3.82 0.49
RP Brian Bruney 50 4.35 0.08
RP Tyler Clippard 65 4.2 0.21
RP Tyler Walker 50 4.29 0.12
RP Sean Burnett 55 4.63 -0.08
RP Jason Bergmann 70 4.47 0.02
RP Miguel Batista 30 4.86 -0.12
RP Doug Slaten 40 4.07 0.19
RP Collin Balester 50 5.06 -0.31
RP Drew Storen 20 5.88 -0.30

Total 1445
9.12

3 comments:

Rob B said...

This may be a stupid question but based on these numbers, does that mean that a team comprised entirely of "replacement" level players should in theory win 44 games?

Deez Nats said...

As a suffering ST holder, after the last 2 years, I'll be elated if they can win 74 games.

Steven said...

Rob--yes.

Deez--I hear you. One bit of context to keep in mind is that the projection systems all assume a decent amount of regression to the mean. Since 100+ losses is statistically a large deviation from the mean, the statistical projections like PECOTA, Bill James, CHONE, etc., will basically never project 100 losses. This isn't a prediction so much as the statistically most likely outcome.

Personally I'd bet the under, by a decent amount.