Updating the WAR projection with the Elijah Dukes release, Livan Hernandez signing, and some other minor moves, the Nationals now project as a 74-win team, using CHONE projections and my own guesstimates on playing time. CHONE projections are available at baseballprojection.com and on FanGraphs. That's about two wins below what was projected last time I ran the spreadsheet. Have a look:
A 6.12 nERA from Storen? I know the sample size is small there and he's got no major league experience with which to project, but doesn't that seem reaaaaaaally high?
They were projected for the exact same number of wins last season. All these systems regress projected performance somewhat to the mean--in other words 72-74 wins is about as bad a projection as you'll ever get.
5 comments:
I ain't greedy. I'll take it & tickled pink if they can win 74 games.
A 6.12 nERA from Storen? I know the sample size is small there and he's got no major league experience with which to project, but doesn't that seem reaaaaaaally high?
They were projected for the exact same number of wins last season. All these systems regress projected performance somewhat to the mean--in other words 72-74 wins is about as bad a projection as you'll ever get.
With a big hole now in right field, with Nick's .400+ OBP gone, and with continued lousy pitching, I think 100 losses are possible again.
Agreed. 72 wins is our best case scenario, and I would be surprised if we had another 59 win season.
And who still claims the Nats are on the right track?
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