Thursday, March 18, 2010

Updated Nationals Wins Above Replacement Projection

Updating the WAR projection with the Elijah Dukes release, Livan Hernandez signing, and some other minor moves, the Nationals now project as a 74-win team, using CHONE projections and my own guesstimates on playing time. CHONE projections are available at baseballprojection.com and on FanGraphs. That's about two wins below what was projected last time I ran the spreadsheet. Have a look:

Pos Name PT wOBA FRAA WAR
C Jesus Flores 30% .324 0.0 0.85
C Ivan Rodriguez 70% .290 0.0 0.55
1B Adam Dunn 85% .378 -8.4 2.34
1B Mike Morse 15% .343 0.3 0.23
2B Adam Kennedy 75% .313 1.8 1.00
2B Ian Desmond 25% .324 0.0 0.46
SS Cristian Guzman 75% .316 -2.0 1.24
SS Ian Desmond 25% .324 -4.5 0.47
3B Ryan Zimmerman 85% .379 10.1 5.22
3B Ian Desmond 15% .324 0.0 0.27
RF Mike Morse 35% .343 -0.3 0.68
RF Roger Bernadina 30% .319 0.0 0.16
RF Justin Maxwell 35% .315 0.0 0.10
CF Nyjer Morgan 85% .321 8.5 2.11
CF Willie Harris 15% .328 -0.6 0.30
LF Josh Willingham 85% .361 -6.0 2.94
LF Willie Harris 15% .328 6.5 0.26

Total


19.18



IP nERA WAR
SP Jason Marquis 180 4.73 1.5
SP John Lannan 170 4.58 1.7
SP Livan Hernandez 120 5.05 0.6
SP Scott Olsen 120 5.33 0.2
SP Craig Stammen 70 5.19 0.2
SP Garrett Mock 70 4.69 0.6
SP J.D. Martin 70 4.68 0.6
SP Chien-Ming Wang 70 3.93 1.2
SP Ross Detwiler 40 4.97 0.2
SP Stephen Strasburg 40 4.22 0.6
RP Matt Capps 65 4.02 0.3
RP Tyler Clippard 65 4.02 0.3
RP Jason Bergmann 60 4.30 0.1
RP Brian Bruney 55 4.15 0.2
RP Sean Burnett 55 4.63 -0.1
RP Tyler Walker 50 4.11 0.2
RP Collin Balester 50 5.11 -0.3
RP Miguel Batista 50 5.36 -0.5
RP Drew Storen 40 6.12 -0.7

Total 1440
7.2

5 comments:

Deez Nats said...

I ain't greedy. I'll take it & tickled pink if they can win 74 games.

Natsochist said...

A 6.12 nERA from Storen? I know the sample size is small there and he's got no major league experience with which to project, but doesn't that seem reaaaaaaally high?

Steven said...

They were projected for the exact same number of wins last season. All these systems regress projected performance somewhat to the mean--in other words 72-74 wins is about as bad a projection as you'll ever get.

phil dunn said...

With a big hole now in right field, with Nick's .400+ OBP gone, and with continued lousy pitching, I think 100 losses are possible again.

Will said...

Agreed. 72 wins is our best case scenario, and I would be surprised if we had another 59 win season.

And who still claims the Nats are on the right track?