I still think he's going to be a successful manager somewhere in the future, and when I think of all the things that's wrong with the Scats, Manny wouldn't be anywhere near the top or even the middle of the list, but listening to him take questions every day, he sounds like he wants out. Can't say I blame him.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Scouting Report: Cardinals at Nationals (4/30)
The Cardinals arrive in town in first place in the NL Central. They have the second best team ERA in the NL (3.63, trailing the Pirates of all teams, the highest team wOBA (.360), and the best player on the planet. Well, at least the weather's lousy.
Here's my preview of the Cardinals series, including the line-up, bullpen, and game one starter Mitchell Boggs.
When the Cards Are Up
--Albert Pujols last year was two wins above replacement better than the next best position player in all of baseball. He's hitting a ridiculous .320 / .448 / .653, and oh by the way is arguably the best fielding first-baseman in the league. He is a man among boys, standing head and shoulders above the rest of the league.
--Rick Ankiel, the converted pitcher-turned-slugger, has tremendous power but huge strikeout rates and below average on-base skills. He struck out 100 times last season (24.2%) and has already whiffed 17 times this year. Unfortunately he's not hitting for power yet, seeing his ISO power drop from .242 to .159, and his plate discipline has taken a step back. Still, he's only been a hitter for a couple years, so the Cardinals have to be patient. Uberprospect Colby Rasmus will take over next year, as Ankiel is a free agent after this season, and Rasmus is getting plenty of PT this year. He's a beast with a good power, excellent plate discipline, and an excellent glove.
--The youngest of the catching Molina brothers, Yadier Molina has a cannon arm and has been regarded as a no-hit, great defensive catcher. He's proving that the label sells him short. In 2008, he cut his strike out rate almost in half from 12.2% to 6.5%, making him a legitimately excellent contact hitter. He still has very little power, and his batting average will be suppressed by his lack of wheels, but he's not an automatic out. So far this year he's been even better than optimists hoped, posting an excellent .353 / .423 / .529 line in the early going.
--Slugging right-fielder Ryan Ludwick busted out last year with 37 dingers. He actually hits righties a bit better than lefties, an unusual reverse platoon split. He's a late bloomer with enough plate discipline and raw power to keep this up, and he's a pretty good right-fielder too.
--Dave Duncan's boy, Chris Duncan, had a potentially career-threatening neck injury last year, but surgery seems to have solved it. He's a great big 6'5" lefty, but he has just good, not great power. He walks a ton, but strikes out a lot as well. He's a butcher in the field wherever the Cardinals have put him and struggles mightily against same-handed pitching. Add it all up and you don't have a ton of value despite a fairly impressive highlight reel. He's off to a good start though, hitting .297 / .387 / .531 in the early going.
--Skip Schumaker is a scrappy, blue-collar guy who's make the ultimate scrappy blue-collar play by learning to play a brand-new position, second-base, in spring training. So far not so good. He's only made one error, but according to UZR he's allowed a whopping 3.7 runs more than average because of his poor range. I haven't seen him play, but I'm guessing it's less athleticism than poor reactions at the new spot, because he was regarded as a fantastic outfielder. But like Willie Harris has shown, it's quite a different skill set to play outfield well than the quick-twitch reactions that make a great infielder. At the plate, he's a good contact hitter who draws a fair number of walks but brings very little power. If he can't figure out second, he's a bench guy.
--Still one of the most hated men in NatsTown for the home run he hit to end the 2005 team's chances of the playoffs (or, looking at it another way initiating the unbroken era of irrelevance for the Scats), Khalil Greene came over from San Diego last off season hoping to jump-start a stalled career with a change in scenery. Last season he was one of the worst offensive regulars the league had seen in years, posting an almost unfathomable .260 OBP (which happens to be exactly what Cristian Guzman did in his horrifying 2005). He's walking more, but it's not translating to results yet, and he's been a problem defensively, committing 5 errors.
--With Troy Glaus hurt, former prospect Joe Thurston is getting the starts at third over rookie David Freese. Total obsessives may remember that Thurston was in Nationals camp in 2007 but couldn't win a job on a team that gave nearly 500 ABs to D'Angelo Jimenez, Tony Batista, and Robert Fick. He's a slappy contact hitter with no plate discipline. He's hitting .300 on an inflated BABIP, but that won't last. I assumed that maybe he could field his position well, but UZR says that's not really true either. Freese must have banged LaRussa's daughter or something.
On the Mound
Mitchell Boggs: A 6'3", 25-year-old righty, Boggs is a fastball-slider guy who's never been better than just ok at any level of the minors. But he's managed do just well enough to keep progressing, and with Chris Carpenter on the DL, he's getting a couple starts in The Show. He doesn't strike anyone out, and his command is just ok.
His top PECOTA comps include William Brennan, which may come in handy when the Obama administration is looking for a Supreme Court nominee, but it doesn't sound too promising for the Cardinals.
The Bullpen
Tony LaRussa, the inventor of the modern, inefficient bullpen, is sitting on a group begging to be used with match-ups, rather than arbitrary innings roles, in mind. Dennys Reyes is one of the better LOOGYs in baseball. Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, and Chris Perez are three big, young power arms deemed not ready for the pressure of closer duties by LaRussa. As a result, veteran Ryan Franklin is back in the 9th inning role, and he's been more than adequate so far, converting 6 of 7 save chances with a 0.00 ERA, even if an entire career's body of evidence shows he can't maintain it.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 14-7
Cardinals take the opener, 7-4.
Here's my preview of the Cardinals series, including the line-up, bullpen, and game one starter Mitchell Boggs.
When the Cards Are Up
--Albert Pujols last year was two wins above replacement better than the next best position player in all of baseball. He's hitting a ridiculous .320 / .448 / .653, and oh by the way is arguably the best fielding first-baseman in the league. He is a man among boys, standing head and shoulders above the rest of the league.
--Rick Ankiel, the converted pitcher-turned-slugger, has tremendous power but huge strikeout rates and below average on-base skills. He struck out 100 times last season (24.2%) and has already whiffed 17 times this year. Unfortunately he's not hitting for power yet, seeing his ISO power drop from .242 to .159, and his plate discipline has taken a step back. Still, he's only been a hitter for a couple years, so the Cardinals have to be patient. Uberprospect Colby Rasmus will take over next year, as Ankiel is a free agent after this season, and Rasmus is getting plenty of PT this year. He's a beast with a good power, excellent plate discipline, and an excellent glove.
--The youngest of the catching Molina brothers, Yadier Molina has a cannon arm and has been regarded as a no-hit, great defensive catcher. He's proving that the label sells him short. In 2008, he cut his strike out rate almost in half from 12.2% to 6.5%, making him a legitimately excellent contact hitter. He still has very little power, and his batting average will be suppressed by his lack of wheels, but he's not an automatic out. So far this year he's been even better than optimists hoped, posting an excellent .353 / .423 / .529 line in the early going.
--Slugging right-fielder Ryan Ludwick busted out last year with 37 dingers. He actually hits righties a bit better than lefties, an unusual reverse platoon split. He's a late bloomer with enough plate discipline and raw power to keep this up, and he's a pretty good right-fielder too.
--Dave Duncan's boy, Chris Duncan, had a potentially career-threatening neck injury last year, but surgery seems to have solved it. He's a great big 6'5" lefty, but he has just good, not great power. He walks a ton, but strikes out a lot as well. He's a butcher in the field wherever the Cardinals have put him and struggles mightily against same-handed pitching. Add it all up and you don't have a ton of value despite a fairly impressive highlight reel. He's off to a good start though, hitting .297 / .387 / .531 in the early going.
--Skip Schumaker is a scrappy, blue-collar guy who's make the ultimate scrappy blue-collar play by learning to play a brand-new position, second-base, in spring training. So far not so good. He's only made one error, but according to UZR he's allowed a whopping 3.7 runs more than average because of his poor range. I haven't seen him play, but I'm guessing it's less athleticism than poor reactions at the new spot, because he was regarded as a fantastic outfielder. But like Willie Harris has shown, it's quite a different skill set to play outfield well than the quick-twitch reactions that make a great infielder. At the plate, he's a good contact hitter who draws a fair number of walks but brings very little power. If he can't figure out second, he's a bench guy.
--Still one of the most hated men in NatsTown for the home run he hit to end the 2005 team's chances of the playoffs (or, looking at it another way initiating the unbroken era of irrelevance for the Scats), Khalil Greene came over from San Diego last off season hoping to jump-start a stalled career with a change in scenery. Last season he was one of the worst offensive regulars the league had seen in years, posting an almost unfathomable .260 OBP (which happens to be exactly what Cristian Guzman did in his horrifying 2005). He's walking more, but it's not translating to results yet, and he's been a problem defensively, committing 5 errors.
--With Troy Glaus hurt, former prospect Joe Thurston is getting the starts at third over rookie David Freese. Total obsessives may remember that Thurston was in Nationals camp in 2007 but couldn't win a job on a team that gave nearly 500 ABs to D'Angelo Jimenez, Tony Batista, and Robert Fick. He's a slappy contact hitter with no plate discipline. He's hitting .300 on an inflated BABIP, but that won't last. I assumed that maybe he could field his position well, but UZR says that's not really true either. Freese must have banged LaRussa's daughter or something.
On the Mound
Mitchell Boggs: A 6'3", 25-year-old righty, Boggs is a fastball-slider guy who's never been better than just ok at any level of the minors. But he's managed do just well enough to keep progressing, and with Chris Carpenter on the DL, he's getting a couple starts in The Show. He doesn't strike anyone out, and his command is just ok.
His top PECOTA comps include William Brennan, which may come in handy when the Obama administration is looking for a Supreme Court nominee, but it doesn't sound too promising for the Cardinals.
The Bullpen
Tony LaRussa, the inventor of the modern, inefficient bullpen, is sitting on a group begging to be used with match-ups, rather than arbitrary innings roles, in mind. Dennys Reyes is one of the better LOOGYs in baseball. Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, and Chris Perez are three big, young power arms deemed not ready for the pressure of closer duties by LaRussa. As a result, veteran Ryan Franklin is back in the 9th inning role, and he's been more than adequate so far, converting 6 of 7 save chances with a 0.00 ERA, even if an entire career's body of evidence shows he can't maintain it.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 14-7
Cardinals take the opener, 7-4.
Nationals Add Logan Kensing
The Nationals traded 2007 48th round draft pick Kyle Gunderson (who let's be honest I'd never heard of before today, had you?) to the Marlins for hard-throwing fastball-slider reliever Logan Kensing yesterday. It has the feel of another cheapskate move by the Marlins, dumping an arbitration-eligible player for whatever they could get. Yeah, I know he was only making a couple hundred thousand over the major league minimum, but these are the Marlins we're talking about.
Kensing can touch the mid-90s and miss bats, striking out 21.4% of batters faced for his career. He's walked 12.4% though, and that's been his undoing.
Last year was his best year, going 55.1 IP with a 4.23 ERA, though it's important to note an important stat I've invented called ERANA, or ERA Nationals-Adjusted, which tells you how a pitcher did against teams other than our Nationals. It's an important measure to consider when trying to isolate a pitcher's true skill level. In 2008, Kensing's ERANA was 4.50 in 50 innings, still pretty good but not as impressive.
Still, it was somewhat surprising to see the Fish DFA a live-armed young-ish 26-year-old, and Rizzo jumped. Hardly a game-changer, but it seems fine.
One thing I'm wondering though after watching Joel Hanrahan melt into a puddle of jelly the other night in Philly is whether Rizzo's Donald Trump routine ("you're fired!") is backfiring. Everyone talks about how you can't pitch scared, but it's a lot harder not not pitch scared when you know that if you get the fat part of the plate once you could end up in Syracuse or worse. I know it's satisfying to fans to hear tough talk about accountability, and maybe it's true the Manny's been too permissive, and that's related to our annual slow starts. But I'm not sure. This might not be the best way to pull a team or a pitching staff out of a tailspin
Kensing can touch the mid-90s and miss bats, striking out 21.4% of batters faced for his career. He's walked 12.4% though, and that's been his undoing.
Last year was his best year, going 55.1 IP with a 4.23 ERA, though it's important to note an important stat I've invented called ERANA, or ERA Nationals-Adjusted, which tells you how a pitcher did against teams other than our Nationals. It's an important measure to consider when trying to isolate a pitcher's true skill level. In 2008, Kensing's ERANA was 4.50 in 50 innings, still pretty good but not as impressive.
Still, it was somewhat surprising to see the Fish DFA a live-armed young-ish 26-year-old, and Rizzo jumped. Hardly a game-changer, but it seems fine.
One thing I'm wondering though after watching Joel Hanrahan melt into a puddle of jelly the other night in Philly is whether Rizzo's Donald Trump routine ("you're fired!") is backfiring. Everyone talks about how you can't pitch scared, but it's a lot harder not not pitch scared when you know that if you get the fat part of the plate once you could end up in Syracuse or worse. I know it's satisfying to fans to hear tough talk about accountability, and maybe it's true the Manny's been too permissive, and that's related to our annual slow starts. But I'm not sure. This might not be the best way to pull a team or a pitching staff out of a tailspin
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
JimBo Resurfaces
Thom Loverro has a column today updating us on the latest on Bowden. Evidently he's a part-time radio personality on a Los Angeles radio station.
Go ahead and read the column if you haven't already. It's typical Jim: some self-serving half-truths combined with a healthy dose of allegedly inside information that he's either making up or shouldn't be sharing.
He says we're definitely going to sign Strasburg, that the decision's already been made, though I sure hope someone checks to be sure he hasn't blown out his elbow before we make the pick. He even tells us the exact time and amount of the signing bonus. He says Mark Teixeira was offered more money and years than we'd previously been told, but doesn't say how much. He blames his boss for not signing Aaron Crow. He recounts a sorrowful tale of how he decided to resign his position for the good of the team. He recommends Steven Shell to the Angels, a team that knows a good deal more about building a pitching staff than Jim.
Whatever. Wanna know my reaction? I don't care. Truth be told, there's not one thing about Jim Bowden that's interesting to me now. He's predictable, inanely self-absorbed, and not terribly talented in any way that I can discern. I feel compelled given the legacy of this blog to comment on the latest Bowden news, but really who cares what Bowden has to say? I don't wish him ill, and if a radio station in LA thinks people want to listen to him talk about himself, fine. But I sure won't be tuning in.
Go ahead and read the column if you haven't already. It's typical Jim: some self-serving half-truths combined with a healthy dose of allegedly inside information that he's either making up or shouldn't be sharing.
He says we're definitely going to sign Strasburg, that the decision's already been made, though I sure hope someone checks to be sure he hasn't blown out his elbow before we make the pick. He even tells us the exact time and amount of the signing bonus. He says Mark Teixeira was offered more money and years than we'd previously been told, but doesn't say how much. He blames his boss for not signing Aaron Crow. He recounts a sorrowful tale of how he decided to resign his position for the good of the team. He recommends Steven Shell to the Angels, a team that knows a good deal more about building a pitching staff than Jim.
Whatever. Wanna know my reaction? I don't care. Truth be told, there's not one thing about Jim Bowden that's interesting to me now. He's predictable, inanely self-absorbed, and not terribly talented in any way that I can discern. I feel compelled given the legacy of this blog to comment on the latest Bowden news, but really who cares what Bowden has to say? I don't wish him ill, and if a radio station in LA thinks people want to listen to him talk about himself, fine. But I sure won't be tuning in.
Scouting Report: Nationals at Phillies (4/29)
No time for chit chat. Here's my look at the Phillies' game three starter and prediction. You can check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on their hitters and bullpen.
On the Mound
Brett Myers: The Phillies pitchers have been victimized by the gopherball all year with Myers leading the way. He's given up 8 already in just 4 starts.
He has a 4.91 ERA in the early going, but he's actually been much worse than that would suggest. Hitters have a low .267 BABIP against him, and he's stranded almost 90% of runners allowed. He's striking out a solid 8.06 per 9, but he's walking more than ever before, 4.21 per 9, which is too many. Basically it's your standard issue Brett Myers head-case start to the season.
At his best he's an ace with strong groundball and strikeout rates. His best pitch is his curveball, and he also throws a fastball, slider, and change.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 14-6
It's quite a study in character tonight, with Scott Olsen facing Brett Myers in a battle of knuckleheads. Phillies get the sweep, 7-3.
On the Mound
Brett Myers: The Phillies pitchers have been victimized by the gopherball all year with Myers leading the way. He's given up 8 already in just 4 starts.
He has a 4.91 ERA in the early going, but he's actually been much worse than that would suggest. Hitters have a low .267 BABIP against him, and he's stranded almost 90% of runners allowed. He's striking out a solid 8.06 per 9, but he's walking more than ever before, 4.21 per 9, which is too many. Basically it's your standard issue Brett Myers head-case start to the season.
At his best he's an ace with strong groundball and strikeout rates. His best pitch is his curveball, and he also throws a fastball, slider, and change.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 14-6
It's quite a study in character tonight, with Scott Olsen facing Brett Myers in a battle of knuckleheads. Phillies get the sweep, 7-3.
What We've Learned, Three Weeks In
Beyond the obvious, that the 2009 Scats are probably not much if any better than the 2008 debacle, here are some of the more significant observations I've made so far this season:
1. Elijah Dukes has massive, enormous, stupendous power. He has 17 hits, 8 for extra bases, 3 homers, and .268 ISO power. OK so we knew he could do that. But I didn't know he could do this and this.
2. Ryan Zimmerman is good again. He's hitting .295 / .360 / .526, which is better than ever, and he's historically a slow starter. And his fielding has been excellent--you remember the throwing errors, but he more than makes up for it with the best range of any third baseman in the league.
3. Adam Dunn is what we thought he was. He won't keep hitting .311 / .475 / .607, but he might keep walking more than 20% of the time. And he's certainly going to keep hitting for power. He's terrible in the field, but dude can hit.
4. Joel Hanrahan isn't a closer. You can't walk over 5 guys per 9 and be an ace reliever. Just doesn't work.
5. I'll just let Chico tell it: "I think it's already fair to say that Jim Bowden greatly miscalculated his team's needs/weaknesses this offseason. Think back, for instance, to the bullpen this team had in February. No Beimel. No Wells. No Tavarez. No real back-up plan whatsoever if all the young guys failed. Bowden, w/r/t his bullpen, was counting on a pipedream."
1. Elijah Dukes has massive, enormous, stupendous power. He has 17 hits, 8 for extra bases, 3 homers, and .268 ISO power. OK so we knew he could do that. But I didn't know he could do this and this.
2. Ryan Zimmerman is good again. He's hitting .295 / .360 / .526, which is better than ever, and he's historically a slow starter. And his fielding has been excellent--you remember the throwing errors, but he more than makes up for it with the best range of any third baseman in the league.
3. Adam Dunn is what we thought he was. He won't keep hitting .311 / .475 / .607, but he might keep walking more than 20% of the time. And he's certainly going to keep hitting for power. He's terrible in the field, but dude can hit.
4. Joel Hanrahan isn't a closer. You can't walk over 5 guys per 9 and be an ace reliever. Just doesn't work.
5. I'll just let Chico tell it: "I think it's already fair to say that Jim Bowden greatly miscalculated his team's needs/weaknesses this offseason. Think back, for instance, to the bullpen this team had in February. No Beimel. No Wells. No Tavarez. No real back-up plan whatsoever if all the young guys failed. Bowden, w/r/t his bullpen, was counting on a pipedream."
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Scouting Report: Nationals at Phillies (4/28)
The Scats try to bounce back from their biggest heart-breaker of the season. I don't have much to say, but I am starting to wonder who are the 32% still saying this team is on the right track?
Oh, and yes this should be it for Hanrahan. Blame Bowden for deciding he was worthy of getting the closer job with no real plan B. The question of course is "who else?" Really it doesn't matter. We don't have an ace, so Manny should just play match-ups. He's managing the bullpen as if Julian Tavarez is his highest leverage coser, probably putting more stock in "experience" than he should, but I would guess he gets the next save opportunity. Mock's been discussed as Rizzo's closer-of-the-future, so he could get some test runs. There isn't really a good solution here. Hey--what's Rocky Biddle up to?
Here's my look at the Phillies' game two starter and prediction. You can check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on their hitters and bullpen.
On the Mound
Cole Hamels: The Verducci Effect refers to the pattern of underperformance and/or injury when a pitcher under 25 sees an innings jump of more than 30 from year to year. Cole Hamels (in the course of winning a championship, of course) in his age 24 season went from 189 innings to 262.1. There were plenty of times in August and September that Manuel could have gone easier on his young ace, but there wasn't really any chance of keeping Hamels's innings jump in the "safe" zone.
In the spring, he reported elbow soreness and had an MRI done. The results showed swelling and nothing more, and he says he feels great. Still, in three starts he's got a 6.97 fielding independent ERA, 9.69 "real" ERA, and he's giving up long balls at nearly triple his career rate. It's not terribly shocking that his velocity isn't quite there yet since he didn't have a full spring, but it's definitely not too soon for Phillies fans to worry that Charlie Manuel broke Steve Carlton.
Still, flags fly forever.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 13-6
Phillies, 8-4.
Oh, and yes this should be it for Hanrahan. Blame Bowden for deciding he was worthy of getting the closer job with no real plan B. The question of course is "who else?" Really it doesn't matter. We don't have an ace, so Manny should just play match-ups. He's managing the bullpen as if Julian Tavarez is his highest leverage coser, probably putting more stock in "experience" than he should, but I would guess he gets the next save opportunity. Mock's been discussed as Rizzo's closer-of-the-future, so he could get some test runs. There isn't really a good solution here. Hey--what's Rocky Biddle up to?
Here's my look at the Phillies' game two starter and prediction. You can check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on their hitters and bullpen.
On the Mound
Cole Hamels: The Verducci Effect refers to the pattern of underperformance and/or injury when a pitcher under 25 sees an innings jump of more than 30 from year to year. Cole Hamels (in the course of winning a championship, of course) in his age 24 season went from 189 innings to 262.1. There were plenty of times in August and September that Manuel could have gone easier on his young ace, but there wasn't really any chance of keeping Hamels's innings jump in the "safe" zone.
In the spring, he reported elbow soreness and had an MRI done. The results showed swelling and nothing more, and he says he feels great. Still, in three starts he's got a 6.97 fielding independent ERA, 9.69 "real" ERA, and he's giving up long balls at nearly triple his career rate. It's not terribly shocking that his velocity isn't quite there yet since he didn't have a full spring, but it's definitely not too soon for Phillies fans to worry that Charlie Manuel broke Steve Carlton.
Still, flags fly forever.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 13-6
Phillies, 8-4.
Natmosphere Fantasy Baseball League Week 3 Results
The story of the week in the Natmosphere fantasy baseball league was the Cheryl v. Dave Nationals News Network match-up. Dave entered the week in first place, but Cheryl knocked him all over the yard, winning 11 categories to 2. Both teams pitched well, but Cheryl's staff, led by Felix Hernandez, Chris Young, and Aaron Harang were lights out. Meanwhile, Cheryl swept every offensive category with big weeks from Curtis Granderson, Aramis Ramirez, and (surprisingly) Brandon Inge. With that impressive performance, Cheryl moved into first place in the league, and Dave slipped all the way to third.
We've Got Heart took out two weeks of frustration on VORP 10, Engage. Kristen simply massacred ol' TJ 10-3. She got solid all-around offense from Derek Jeter, Ryan Zimmerman, and Shane Victorino, but it was her pitching that really shined. Johan Santana, Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir, and Jair Jurrjens were all dominating.
I started and finished the week in second place, beating Sean from DC Sports Plus 9 categories to 4. I won every offensive category except stolen bases behind huge weeks from Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Carlos Beltran. We split the pitching categories pretty evenly, as my rotation led by Dan Haren, Jon Danks, and Derek Lowe was effectively countered by Sean's guys, including Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, and Scott Downs.
Finally, Musings of Kenny G beat up on Hendo 11-2. (I tend to think that Hendo's not totally paying attention, since he's starting ARod every week....). Jacoby Ellsbury, Manny Ramirez, and Carlos Lee led the way for Kenny's offense, while Yovani Gallardo and Matt Cain were his best on the mound.
We've Got Heart took out two weeks of frustration on VORP 10, Engage. Kristen simply massacred ol' TJ 10-3. She got solid all-around offense from Derek Jeter, Ryan Zimmerman, and Shane Victorino, but it was her pitching that really shined. Johan Santana, Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir, and Jair Jurrjens were all dominating.
I started and finished the week in second place, beating Sean from DC Sports Plus 9 categories to 4. I won every offensive category except stolen bases behind huge weeks from Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Carlos Beltran. We split the pitching categories pretty evenly, as my rotation led by Dan Haren, Jon Danks, and Derek Lowe was effectively countered by Sean's guys, including Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, and Scott Downs.
Finally, Musings of Kenny G beat up on Hendo 11-2. (I tend to think that Hendo's not totally paying attention, since he's starting ARod every week....). Jacoby Ellsbury, Manny Ramirez, and Carlos Lee led the way for Kenny's offense, while Yovani Gallardo and Matt Cain were his best on the mound.
Monday, April 27, 2009
The Shawn Hill Challenge
There's been some self-satisfied clucking among Nationals fans as Shawn Hill went to the disabled list with another bout of his recurring, undiagnosed forearm soreness. It would appear, perhaps, that maybe the Nationals did the right thing by letting him walk. After all, 12 IP for $800k? No thanks.
Of course, Hill could be back shortly, and I hope he is, but let's assume he's done. In that case, he'd be finishing the year with 3 starts, a 4.10 fielding independent ERA, and a +0.2 VORP (value over replacement player). That means that in his 12 innings, he contributed two-tenths of a win over what a typical AAA call-up would do. Hill didn't last, but while he was out there, he was better than replacement-level.
Here's my challenge to the Washington Nationals pitching staff. In order to prove beyond a doubt that the Nationals as a team (as opposed to Ted Lerner's bank account) are/were better off without Hill, they need to have 5 starting pitchers reach above-replacement territory. Currently, two-fifths of the rotation is in the red when it comes to VORP. Scott Olsen is at -5.8 VORP and Daniel Cabrera's at -5.1.
There's my challenge get five guys above 0.2 VORP, and I'll tip my cap to Rizzo for doing the right thing on Shawn Hill. Shouldn't be too hard, right? Right?
Of course, Hill could be back shortly, and I hope he is, but let's assume he's done. In that case, he'd be finishing the year with 3 starts, a 4.10 fielding independent ERA, and a +0.2 VORP (value over replacement player). That means that in his 12 innings, he contributed two-tenths of a win over what a typical AAA call-up would do. Hill didn't last, but while he was out there, he was better than replacement-level.
Here's my challenge to the Washington Nationals pitching staff. In order to prove beyond a doubt that the Nationals as a team (as opposed to Ted Lerner's bank account) are/were better off without Hill, they need to have 5 starting pitchers reach above-replacement territory. Currently, two-fifths of the rotation is in the red when it comes to VORP. Scott Olsen is at -5.8 VORP and Daniel Cabrera's at -5.1.
There's my challenge get five guys above 0.2 VORP, and I'll tip my cap to Rizzo for doing the right thing on Shawn Hill. Shouldn't be too hard, right? Right?
Scouting Report: Nationals at Phillies
The Nationals arrive in Philly to face a the defending champs, who at 8-8 are in third place in the NL East trailing the Braves and Marlins. In fairness to the Phillies though, they've played the Scats a lot less than Atlanta and Florida have.
Here's my preview of the Phillies series, including the line-up, bullpen, and game one starter Joe Blanton.
When the Phils Are Up
--The story of the early season for the Phillies is that Jimmy Rollins is hitting like Sonny Rollins (who for all I know may have been a great ballplayer in his day, but not now). The former MVP is hitting an anemic .162 / .205 / .235. They say he isn't hurt, but they need a lot more from him if they're going to contend again this year.
--Chase Utley's tearing up the league with a .322 / .437 / .593 start. Remember when he was supposed to be hurt now?
--Designated hitter Raul Ibanez is endearing himself to Phillies fans early on with a .328 / .394 / .656 line in the early going. He's totally locked in, walking more and striking out less than his career averages. He's even playing pretty good defense, having not yet made a single error this year. (Now THERE'S a streak that's due to end.)
--Here's hoping that someone told Manny what every other manager in the NL knows, that you match up a lefty against Ryan Howard whenever possible. That's what you do with a 50-homer guy with a 300-point career OPS platoon split. Period.
--Jayson Werth is picking up where he left off last year, using his very good strike-zone command and power to hit righties and absolutely destroy lefties.
--Pedro Feliz continues to stink at the plate, but has been 1.5 runs below average with the glove in a very small sample size so far this season. He's a little less awful against lefties, but mostly he's terrible. He won the hearts of Phillies fans with a .313 / .368 / .575 line in "late and close" situations last season, but they'd still be better off not picking up the club option for 2010.
--Shane Victorino is struggling a bit in the early going, but actually his Ks are down and walks are up. His BABIP is way down at .250, and that'll come up.
--With Carlos Ruiz rehabbing, bad, old Chris Coste and prospect Lou Marson have been splitting the starts at catcher. Marson is showing off his touted on-base skills with a .375 OBP, while Coste is hitting a bad-even-for-Chris-Coste .281 OBP. Marson's defense is supposed to be suspect, but it'd have to be a lot worse to make up for the drop-off at the plate.
On the Mound
Joe Blanton: Blanton is coming in with a 7.30 ERA in 3 starts. It's a fitting comeuppance for a team that gave up far too much to get a guy with an PECOTA ERA projection almost exactly equal to that of Odalis Perez (he's actually a little better than Odalis, but not much).
Still, Blanton isn't as bad as he's looked so far. He's suffering from a 15% HR/FB rate (11% is typical), .430 BABIP (.310 is average), and 64.5% strand rate (70% is typical).
He throws a standard fastball-slider-change-curve repertoire. He doesn't strike out anyone, but he keeps the ball on the ground and will usually keep his team in the game.
The Bullpen
Brad Lidge has seen a good bit of overdue regression to the mean after a great season that was made even more remarkable by some statistical anomalies, most notably a 3.9% HR/FB rate. This year he's at a whopping 37.9%. That's 3 dingers in 8.2 innings, giving him an ugly 7.29 ERA in the early going. That won't continue either, but no one should be terribly shocked that Lidge had a run of gopherballs in him. His velocity is down very slightly, but at at 93 mph he's still got enough to whiff 12.49 per 9. Some people are worrying about pre-season reports of elbow tendinitis, but I think he's fine. It's just that no one goes season after season without ever giving up a homer. Not even Lights Out Lidge.
Ryan Madson is their excellent set-up man, and he's off to a fast start, whiffing 14 of the first 39 batters he's faced this season. Scott Eyre is doing his job as the LOOGY, facing 8 lefties so far (and two righties) and retiring them all.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 13-5
I really don't like Martis's flyball tendencies and (sample size alert!) big platoon split against the Phils' slugging lefties in Citizens Bank. But the Scats should hit enough off Blanton to give themselves a chance to win this one. I say they do, 7-6.
Here's my preview of the Phillies series, including the line-up, bullpen, and game one starter Joe Blanton.
When the Phils Are Up
--The story of the early season for the Phillies is that Jimmy Rollins is hitting like Sonny Rollins (who for all I know may have been a great ballplayer in his day, but not now). The former MVP is hitting an anemic .162 / .205 / .235. They say he isn't hurt, but they need a lot more from him if they're going to contend again this year.
--Chase Utley's tearing up the league with a .322 / .437 / .593 start. Remember when he was supposed to be hurt now?
--Designated hitter Raul Ibanez is endearing himself to Phillies fans early on with a .328 / .394 / .656 line in the early going. He's totally locked in, walking more and striking out less than his career averages. He's even playing pretty good defense, having not yet made a single error this year. (Now THERE'S a streak that's due to end.)
--Here's hoping that someone told Manny what every other manager in the NL knows, that you match up a lefty against Ryan Howard whenever possible. That's what you do with a 50-homer guy with a 300-point career OPS platoon split. Period.
--Jayson Werth is picking up where he left off last year, using his very good strike-zone command and power to hit righties and absolutely destroy lefties.
--Pedro Feliz continues to stink at the plate, but has been 1.5 runs below average with the glove in a very small sample size so far this season. He's a little less awful against lefties, but mostly he's terrible. He won the hearts of Phillies fans with a .313 / .368 / .575 line in "late and close" situations last season, but they'd still be better off not picking up the club option for 2010.
--Shane Victorino is struggling a bit in the early going, but actually his Ks are down and walks are up. His BABIP is way down at .250, and that'll come up.
--With Carlos Ruiz rehabbing, bad, old Chris Coste and prospect Lou Marson have been splitting the starts at catcher. Marson is showing off his touted on-base skills with a .375 OBP, while Coste is hitting a bad-even-for-Chris-Coste .281 OBP. Marson's defense is supposed to be suspect, but it'd have to be a lot worse to make up for the drop-off at the plate.
On the Mound
Joe Blanton: Blanton is coming in with a 7.30 ERA in 3 starts. It's a fitting comeuppance for a team that gave up far too much to get a guy with an PECOTA ERA projection almost exactly equal to that of Odalis Perez (he's actually a little better than Odalis, but not much).
Still, Blanton isn't as bad as he's looked so far. He's suffering from a 15% HR/FB rate (11% is typical), .430 BABIP (.310 is average), and 64.5% strand rate (70% is typical).
He throws a standard fastball-slider-change-curve repertoire. He doesn't strike out anyone, but he keeps the ball on the ground and will usually keep his team in the game.
The Bullpen
Brad Lidge has seen a good bit of overdue regression to the mean after a great season that was made even more remarkable by some statistical anomalies, most notably a 3.9% HR/FB rate. This year he's at a whopping 37.9%. That's 3 dingers in 8.2 innings, giving him an ugly 7.29 ERA in the early going. That won't continue either, but no one should be terribly shocked that Lidge had a run of gopherballs in him. His velocity is down very slightly, but at at 93 mph he's still got enough to whiff 12.49 per 9. Some people are worrying about pre-season reports of elbow tendinitis, but I think he's fine. It's just that no one goes season after season without ever giving up a homer. Not even Lights Out Lidge.
Ryan Madson is their excellent set-up man, and he's off to a fast start, whiffing 14 of the first 39 batters he's faced this season. Scott Eyre is doing his job as the LOOGY, facing 8 lefties so far (and two righties) and retiring them all.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 13-5
I really don't like Martis's flyball tendencies and (sample size alert!) big platoon split against the Phils' slugging lefties in Citizens Bank. But the Scats should hit enough off Blanton to give themselves a chance to win this one. I say they do, 7-6.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Scouting Report: Nationals at Mets (4/26)
Repeat after me: Jordan Zimmermann is young. He will struggle. Expectations must be kept reasonable. New York City is a long way from Auburndale, Wisconsin.
Nationals fans have shown a troubling tendency to hate their best players, which is common for bad teams. People get on Ryan Zimmerman because he's not David Wright. Lastings Milledge merely leads the team in home runs at age 23, but a celebratory whoop! went up in many quarters when he went down to AAA. In Cincy, people booed Adam Dunn for drawing walks with runners in scoring position. There's a group that can't wait for Dukes to screw up. And probably the nastiest manifestation of this phenomenon is the way people seem to blame guys like Nick Johnson and Shawn Hill for their terrible luck with injuries.
So before Flash Jordan hits the skids, as he will, let's remind ourselves that almost all pitchers struggle at his age. Tom Glavine had a 9-21 record and a 4.76 ERA over his first two seasons. Greg Maddux had a 5.61 ERA in his first full year. It's going to happen. And when he struggles, there will be fans who say he stinks, send him down, he's mentally weak, blah blah blah. Those folks are best ignored.
OK, with that out of the way, you can check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on the New York hitters and bullpen. Here's my look at the Mets' starter for the series finale and prediction.
On the Mound
Oliver Perez: The Loopy Lefty is an extreme flyball pitcher with strikeout stuff and a walk rate over 12%. Continuing the theme of this post, if you're trying to figure out why a pitcher like this is so inconsitent, it's not his mental make-up. Flyballs become outs more frequently than any other type of batted ball. But, they also become home runs about one every ten times. If you're also putting guys on first base a lot, you get a pattern that either seems like you have a canny ability to wriggle out of trouble or you give up long balls and end up with a real ugly line. And that's all within the same range of pitcher skill level.
Guys like this also tend to throw a lot of pitches and not go deep in games, which can be frustrating for fans, but again it's just what his skill set allows. All things considered, Perez is a pretty good mid-rotation starter.
He's struggled in the early going, posting a 7.80 ERA. He's walking 16.9%, which is a sky-high number even for him. But he's also only stranded 52.9%, and even bad pitchers will strand closer to 70% over time. His .323 BABIP against is 30 points over his career average, and as a flyballer that number will fall. The velocity on his fastball is down a tick from the low-90s, where he worked last year.
Perez brings a four-seam fastball, slider, and change. Look for him to use the change as the out pitch against righties and the slider against lefties. Righties hit him a good bit better than lefties.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 12-5
At the start of the series I had this pegged as a game the Scats would win. Now, the losing has beaten me down a bit, and I'm thinking twice. It's a Sunday against a lefty, so that means that the groundballing Zimmermann will probably have Dunn manning first with Willingham, Dukes, and Kearns in the outfield. That would be less worrisome if we didn't have chronic throwing problems from our 3B and SS.
OK, enough waffling. I'll stick to my guns. Zimmermann labors a bit and sees his ERA rise, but keeps the Nationals in the game. Our bats show up and the Nationals win a close one, 6-5.
Nationals fans have shown a troubling tendency to hate their best players, which is common for bad teams. People get on Ryan Zimmerman because he's not David Wright. Lastings Milledge merely leads the team in home runs at age 23, but a celebratory whoop! went up in many quarters when he went down to AAA. In Cincy, people booed Adam Dunn for drawing walks with runners in scoring position. There's a group that can't wait for Dukes to screw up. And probably the nastiest manifestation of this phenomenon is the way people seem to blame guys like Nick Johnson and Shawn Hill for their terrible luck with injuries.
So before Flash Jordan hits the skids, as he will, let's remind ourselves that almost all pitchers struggle at his age. Tom Glavine had a 9-21 record and a 4.76 ERA over his first two seasons. Greg Maddux had a 5.61 ERA in his first full year. It's going to happen. And when he struggles, there will be fans who say he stinks, send him down, he's mentally weak, blah blah blah. Those folks are best ignored.
OK, with that out of the way, you can check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on the New York hitters and bullpen. Here's my look at the Mets' starter for the series finale and prediction.
On the Mound
Oliver Perez: The Loopy Lefty is an extreme flyball pitcher with strikeout stuff and a walk rate over 12%. Continuing the theme of this post, if you're trying to figure out why a pitcher like this is so inconsitent, it's not his mental make-up. Flyballs become outs more frequently than any other type of batted ball. But, they also become home runs about one every ten times. If you're also putting guys on first base a lot, you get a pattern that either seems like you have a canny ability to wriggle out of trouble or you give up long balls and end up with a real ugly line. And that's all within the same range of pitcher skill level.
Guys like this also tend to throw a lot of pitches and not go deep in games, which can be frustrating for fans, but again it's just what his skill set allows. All things considered, Perez is a pretty good mid-rotation starter.
He's struggled in the early going, posting a 7.80 ERA. He's walking 16.9%, which is a sky-high number even for him. But he's also only stranded 52.9%, and even bad pitchers will strand closer to 70% over time. His .323 BABIP against is 30 points over his career average, and as a flyballer that number will fall. The velocity on his fastball is down a tick from the low-90s, where he worked last year.
Perez brings a four-seam fastball, slider, and change. Look for him to use the change as the out pitch against righties and the slider against lefties. Righties hit him a good bit better than lefties.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 12-5
At the start of the series I had this pegged as a game the Scats would win. Now, the losing has beaten me down a bit, and I'm thinking twice. It's a Sunday against a lefty, so that means that the groundballing Zimmermann will probably have Dunn manning first with Willingham, Dukes, and Kearns in the outfield. That would be less worrisome if we didn't have chronic throwing problems from our 3B and SS.
OK, enough waffling. I'll stick to my guns. Zimmermann labors a bit and sees his ERA rise, but keeps the Nationals in the game. Our bats show up and the Nationals win a close one, 6-5.
Scouting Report: Nationals at Mets (4/25)
The bad news: suddenly the Nationals aren't hitting. Yesterday in the 6th they snapped a stretch of 16 straight scoreless innings when Nick Johnson took Santana deep. The good news: Santana is the only Mets starter with an ERA under 7. Hence, the Mets 7-9 record and 4th place standing.
(BTW... anyone still worried about Nick Johnson and his .370 / .433 / .463 line?)
Check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on the New York hitters and bullpen. Here's my look at the Mets' starter for game 3 and prediction.
On the Mound
Mike Pelfrey: The 6'7" sinkerballer is off to a rough start, posting an entirely deserved 8.10 ERA while walking more than he's struck out and allowing more flyballs than grounders. His fastball velocity is down almost 2 mph, and if that wasn't enough to worry Mets fans, sure enough he just missed a start with forearm soreness. As Chien Ming-Wang or Saul Rivera can tell you, a sinker that's not sinking is a very hittable pitch. Pelfrey needs a good start.
The Nationals, whose troubles with sinkerballers is well documented, could be the cure he needs. Pelfrey had a 2.36 ERA in 4 starts against the Scats last year. However so far this year the more patient Dunn/Johnson/Dukes-led Nationals have actually fared ok against their two-seam bugaboo, posting a .415 OBP in 9 innings and 43 PAs in two Derek Lowe starts.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 11-5
Pelfrey and Cabrera have a lot in common--tall, sinkerballing, struggling right-handers. I wouldn't bet on either of them to be especially sharp, though Cabrera's been passable his last couple times out. Bottom line, I expect the Mets' left-handed thunder (Beltran, Delgado, Reyes, Murphy, Church) to chase Cabrera faster than the Scats can get to Pelfrey, and the Mets' bullpen runs circles around ours. Mets, 8-4.
(BTW... anyone still worried about Nick Johnson and his .370 / .433 / .463 line?)
Check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on the New York hitters and bullpen. Here's my look at the Mets' starter for game 3 and prediction.
On the Mound
Mike Pelfrey: The 6'7" sinkerballer is off to a rough start, posting an entirely deserved 8.10 ERA while walking more than he's struck out and allowing more flyballs than grounders. His fastball velocity is down almost 2 mph, and if that wasn't enough to worry Mets fans, sure enough he just missed a start with forearm soreness. As Chien Ming-Wang or Saul Rivera can tell you, a sinker that's not sinking is a very hittable pitch. Pelfrey needs a good start.
The Nationals, whose troubles with sinkerballers is well documented, could be the cure he needs. Pelfrey had a 2.36 ERA in 4 starts against the Scats last year. However so far this year the more patient Dunn/Johnson/Dukes-led Nationals have actually fared ok against their two-seam bugaboo, posting a .415 OBP in 9 innings and 43 PAs in two Derek Lowe starts.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 11-5
Pelfrey and Cabrera have a lot in common--tall, sinkerballing, struggling right-handers. I wouldn't bet on either of them to be especially sharp, though Cabrera's been passable his last couple times out. Bottom line, I expect the Mets' left-handed thunder (Beltran, Delgado, Reyes, Murphy, Church) to chase Cabrera faster than the Scats can get to Pelfrey, and the Mets' bullpen runs circles around ours. Mets, 8-4.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Forbes Finds Lerners Make Big Profits while Destroying Value of the Team
Forbes released their annual estimates on the finances of every MLB team. They found that, in the tradition of Frank Lorenzo and Michael Milken, the Lerners are simultaneously making the second biggest profits of any team in baseball while also destroying 12% of the value of their property.
For context, the $43.7 million in profits equals about 62 times the difference between Aaron Crow's asking price and the Nationals final offer.
But Nationals fans should be worried that the ownership of their team is acting like such shameless corporate raiders and making so much money doing it. Obviously it's in the long-term financial interests of the Lerners to run the team well and increase the value of their property, but there's no question that if it's short-term cash you're looking for, the Nationals are doing it just fine. Too bad there's a tomorrow.
For context, the $43.7 million in profits equals about 62 times the difference between Aaron Crow's asking price and the Nationals final offer.
But Nationals fans should be worried that the ownership of their team is acting like such shameless corporate raiders and making so much money doing it. Obviously it's in the long-term financial interests of the Lerners to run the team well and increase the value of their property, but there's no question that if it's short-term cash you're looking for, the Nationals are doing it just fine. Too bad there's a tomorrow.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Scouting Report: Nationals at Mets
I'm confused. Who are these guys in the blue and orange? They aren't the Marlins. They aren't the Phillies. They aren't the Braves. I thought we weren't allowed to play any other teams in MLB.
Here's my preview of the Mets series, including the line-up, bullpen, and game one starter Johan Santana.
When the Mets Are Up
One could make a case for Carlos Beltran as the MVP of the NL East, but he never seems to get that recognition. He's a fantastic fielder, draws a lot of walks, hits for power, and steals bases with remarkable efficiency (88% career). He's off to a scorching hot start as well, posting a ridiculous .485 OBP through the first 15 games.
Don't look now, but Luis Castillo, the deadest of dead weight on the Mets payroll, is off to a nice little start to the season. There were reports in the spring that he was in much better shape, and so far he's hitting .381 / .435 / .476. He's always been better against lefties. Still, he isn't walking like he did in the past, and his Ks are up. His knees are shot though, and last year he had a hip issue as well. Guys who make their money on their wheels tend to age very poorly. We'll see. The Mets own him for three more years.
With Brian Schneider on the 15-day DL, Ramon Castro, who's better anyway, is getting the starts. He's off to a slow start and will always strike out a lot, but given a full season's worth of starts could be a 15-HR guy.
Our old buddy Ryan Church, who wishes he could have stayed in the lineup just by showing up to work on time, is doing what he's always done when given a chance and staying healthy enough to play. Actually, he's doing better than usual. He's hitting .318 / .412 / .455, his walks are way up (14.3% vs. 9.7% career), while his Ks are way down (6.3% vs. 23.9% career). He still struggles a bit with lefties, finishing 2008 with a .319 OBP against them.
Carlos Delgado looked absolutely done a year ago at this time, but in the second half he hit like an MVP. Now it's looking more like 2007 was the result of a wrist injury, and his slow start in 2008 was just a slow start. At 37, the slugger's still slugging.
Danny Murphy, drafted in the 13th round of the 2006 draft, has been quite a find for the Mets. He has tremendous command of the strike-zone, especially for someone of his age, and has drawn walks in 11% of his big league PAs. He doesn't project to be the kind of bopper you expect in LF, but with the production they get from CF, SS, and 3B, that's ok for the Mets. He's supposed to be a weak fielder, but UZR likes him so far, projecting him for 16.5 runs saved per 150 games.
Unfortunately, Jose Reyes has faded in September along with the rest of his team, but he's a very good player. He brings good contact rate and on-base skills, some pop, and of course the speed. I tend to think he's a little overrated, because fans overestimate the value of stolen bases. But with a career stolen base rate of 80%, he's helping his team. Just not as much as he's helping your roto team.
David Wright is off the a typical start, hitting .302 / .413 / .415 so far. He's a wonderful hitter with very good power and unusually good contact rates for a slugger. He's overrated defensively, but whatever.
On the Mound
Johan Santana: Do you think we can get through one Santana start without hearing about Levale Speigner and the vaunted "reverse lock"? Santana is great. Our guys are terrible. It's nothing to really brag about for two years that we got one fluky win against the guy. Besides, career he's got a 2.50 ERA with 5 walks and 30(!) Ks against the Scats in 36 IP.
He throws both a 4-seam and 2-seam fastball with a great change-up and slider. The slider is the out-pitch to lefties, and the change-up whiffs the righties. He throws hard (91-92 fastball) but not overwhelmingly. His command is stellar, and his off-speed stuff is deadly. He's off to a Cy Young start.
If there's a knock on him it's that he's a bit of a flyball pitcher, and that means he's prone to the occasional homerun ball. It'll be interesting to see how the new stadium plays.
The Bullpen
After years of blowing leads, the Mets went and signed K-Rod and J.J. Putz, the best 1-2 punch in MLB. What else do you need to know?
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 10-5
Johan Santana against a Nationals line-up that's overdue for some regression and coming off their first shutout of the year. The Mets are a little lefty-vulnerable, but not enough to make Olsen a winner. Mets, 6-1.
Here's my preview of the Mets series, including the line-up, bullpen, and game one starter Johan Santana.
When the Mets Are Up
One could make a case for Carlos Beltran as the MVP of the NL East, but he never seems to get that recognition. He's a fantastic fielder, draws a lot of walks, hits for power, and steals bases with remarkable efficiency (88% career). He's off to a scorching hot start as well, posting a ridiculous .485 OBP through the first 15 games.
Don't look now, but Luis Castillo, the deadest of dead weight on the Mets payroll, is off to a nice little start to the season. There were reports in the spring that he was in much better shape, and so far he's hitting .381 / .435 / .476. He's always been better against lefties. Still, he isn't walking like he did in the past, and his Ks are up. His knees are shot though, and last year he had a hip issue as well. Guys who make their money on their wheels tend to age very poorly. We'll see. The Mets own him for three more years.
With Brian Schneider on the 15-day DL, Ramon Castro, who's better anyway, is getting the starts. He's off to a slow start and will always strike out a lot, but given a full season's worth of starts could be a 15-HR guy.
Our old buddy Ryan Church, who wishes he could have stayed in the lineup just by showing up to work on time, is doing what he's always done when given a chance and staying healthy enough to play. Actually, he's doing better than usual. He's hitting .318 / .412 / .455, his walks are way up (14.3% vs. 9.7% career), while his Ks are way down (6.3% vs. 23.9% career). He still struggles a bit with lefties, finishing 2008 with a .319 OBP against them.
Carlos Delgado looked absolutely done a year ago at this time, but in the second half he hit like an MVP. Now it's looking more like 2007 was the result of a wrist injury, and his slow start in 2008 was just a slow start. At 37, the slugger's still slugging.
Danny Murphy, drafted in the 13th round of the 2006 draft, has been quite a find for the Mets. He has tremendous command of the strike-zone, especially for someone of his age, and has drawn walks in 11% of his big league PAs. He doesn't project to be the kind of bopper you expect in LF, but with the production they get from CF, SS, and 3B, that's ok for the Mets. He's supposed to be a weak fielder, but UZR likes him so far, projecting him for 16.5 runs saved per 150 games.
Unfortunately, Jose Reyes has faded in September along with the rest of his team, but he's a very good player. He brings good contact rate and on-base skills, some pop, and of course the speed. I tend to think he's a little overrated, because fans overestimate the value of stolen bases. But with a career stolen base rate of 80%, he's helping his team. Just not as much as he's helping your roto team.
David Wright is off the a typical start, hitting .302 / .413 / .415 so far. He's a wonderful hitter with very good power and unusually good contact rates for a slugger. He's overrated defensively, but whatever.
On the Mound
Johan Santana: Do you think we can get through one Santana start without hearing about Levale Speigner and the vaunted "reverse lock"? Santana is great. Our guys are terrible. It's nothing to really brag about for two years that we got one fluky win against the guy. Besides, career he's got a 2.50 ERA with 5 walks and 30(!) Ks against the Scats in 36 IP.
He throws both a 4-seam and 2-seam fastball with a great change-up and slider. The slider is the out-pitch to lefties, and the change-up whiffs the righties. He throws hard (91-92 fastball) but not overwhelmingly. His command is stellar, and his off-speed stuff is deadly. He's off to a Cy Young start.
If there's a knock on him it's that he's a bit of a flyball pitcher, and that means he's prone to the occasional homerun ball. It'll be interesting to see how the new stadium plays.
The Bullpen
After years of blowing leads, the Mets went and signed K-Rod and J.J. Putz, the best 1-2 punch in MLB. What else do you need to know?
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 10-5
Johan Santana against a Nationals line-up that's overdue for some regression and coming off their first shutout of the year. The Mets are a little lefty-vulnerable, but not enough to make Olsen a winner. Mets, 6-1.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Play the "Guess Manny's Lead-Off Men" Game!
Let's play a little game. Its a game I like to call "Guess Manny's Lead-Off Men."
Below are the OBP PECOTA projections for the 17 Nationals position players who have started at least one game this season. Two of these OBPs belong to players who have batted lead-off over the last 7 games. Guess the correct two OBPs, and you win a free, year-long subscription to FJB!
Make your guesses in the comments, and be sure to tell us how to pronounce your name.
Below are the OBP PECOTA projections for the 17 Nationals position players who have started at least one game this season. Two of these OBPs belong to players who have batted lead-off over the last 7 games. Guess the correct two OBPs, and you win a free, year-long subscription to FJB!
Make your guesses in the comments, and be sure to tell us how to pronounce your name.
.410
.396
.386
.361
.360
.358
.355
.352
.338
.337
.336
.324
.316
.307
.288
.278
.273
- BTW--how early does Jason Bergmann have to show up to work to get into a game? We seriously have Kip Wells, Mike Hinckley, and Julian Tavarez all ahead of him? Ah, Mike Hinckley, bless his heart. Nine walks in 34 batters faced. That'd be a 26.4% walk rate. Or, if you prefer, 11.6 walks per 9 innings. He makes Joel Hanrahan circa 2007 look like Curt Schilling. It's no longer fair to call him a LOOGY. He's a LEWGY--left-handed everybody walks guy.
Scouting Report: Braves at Nationals (4/22)
Yay! Going for the sweep! It's been so long, I can't even remember what it's like to lose!
Check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on the Atlanta hitters and bullpen. Here's my look at the Braves' starter for game 3 and prediction.
On the Mound
Jair Jurrjens: I gotta say before we get into this that it's pretty lame how much we pay the teams in our own division early on. I know with inter-league and the three-division set-up that this is probably inevitable, but we've already seen Kawakami, Lowe, Volstad, Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and now Jair Jurrjens twice. There's a whole big league full of pitchers who would be fun and interesting to compete against, doncha think?
Anyway, Jurrjens is a fastball-slider-change pitcher with big groundball rates and big troubles with lefties. He's off to a really nice start, shutting down the Phillies, Nationals, and Pirates en route to a 2.04 ERA through 17.2 innings. He's struggled with command, however, walking 10. He's floating on a .246 BABIP, and his fielding independent ERA is up at 3.82, still respectable but not at all dominant.
One other thing to watch--he threw 120 pitches in his last start, the most he's ever been asked to throw in a game. It's common for guys to struggle with command after a particularly long start. Since he's been wild to begin with, Jurrjens could get knocked out early if he's feeling the after-effects of his last start.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 10-4
If you had told me three weeks ago that John Lannan would have 12 Ks and 4 walks through his first 15.1 innings of the season, I'd have thought, "wow, maybe Lannan has another level after all!" I never would have guessed that those numbers would correspond with a 6.46 ERA. The reality is that Lannan has one awful start, one ok start, and last time out he had a really dynamite start against the red hot Marlins, going 6.1, allowing just 3 hits and 1 walk against 8 Ks.
Meanwhile, the Braves are really in a skid now, having lost 7 of 8 and are suddenly staring a series sweep in the face at the hands of the Scats. Their bullpen is soft, and their bats are ice cold.
Why can't the Nationals win three in a row? The match-ups favor us, and we might even be gaining some confidence. I say they can and will. Lannan goes 6 strong, while Jurrjens lays an egg. Nationals win going away, 7-2.
Check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on the Atlanta hitters and bullpen. Here's my look at the Braves' starter for game 3 and prediction.
On the Mound
Jair Jurrjens: I gotta say before we get into this that it's pretty lame how much we pay the teams in our own division early on. I know with inter-league and the three-division set-up that this is probably inevitable, but we've already seen Kawakami, Lowe, Volstad, Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and now Jair Jurrjens twice. There's a whole big league full of pitchers who would be fun and interesting to compete against, doncha think?
Anyway, Jurrjens is a fastball-slider-change pitcher with big groundball rates and big troubles with lefties. He's off to a really nice start, shutting down the Phillies, Nationals, and Pirates en route to a 2.04 ERA through 17.2 innings. He's struggled with command, however, walking 10. He's floating on a .246 BABIP, and his fielding independent ERA is up at 3.82, still respectable but not at all dominant.
One other thing to watch--he threw 120 pitches in his last start, the most he's ever been asked to throw in a game. It's common for guys to struggle with command after a particularly long start. Since he's been wild to begin with, Jurrjens could get knocked out early if he's feeling the after-effects of his last start.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 10-4
If you had told me three weeks ago that John Lannan would have 12 Ks and 4 walks through his first 15.1 innings of the season, I'd have thought, "wow, maybe Lannan has another level after all!" I never would have guessed that those numbers would correspond with a 6.46 ERA. The reality is that Lannan has one awful start, one ok start, and last time out he had a really dynamite start against the red hot Marlins, going 6.1, allowing just 3 hits and 1 walk against 8 Ks.
Meanwhile, the Braves are really in a skid now, having lost 7 of 8 and are suddenly staring a series sweep in the face at the hands of the Scats. Their bullpen is soft, and their bats are ice cold.
Why can't the Nationals win three in a row? The match-ups favor us, and we might even be gaining some confidence. I say they can and will. Lannan goes 6 strong, while Jurrjens lays an egg. Nationals win going away, 7-2.
Call Me Crazy, but I Kinda Like the Statues
The new statues of Walter Johnson, Josh Gibson, and Frank Howard have been panned by most, but I'll tell you what... I kinda like 'em. You gotta let your eyes follow the motion suggested by the multiple arms, bats, etc. It's like a flip-book. I know it's a little goofy if you stand there looking at it literally, thinking, why does Walter Johnson have three arms? But if you step back and let your eyes move from the first arm to the second and the third, following Big Train's pitching motion, it's kinda cool.
If you don't quite get it at first, try it after a few tokes. That might help.
If you don't quite get it at first, try it after a few tokes. That might help.
Manny on the Hot Seat
With the team off to a horrendous start (and public enemy #1 Jim Bowden out of the picture), Manny Acta has very suddenly found himself on a very, very hot seat. A year ago at this time, you almost never heard anything about Manny getting the axe. Now, you're hearing it all the time.
So should Manny go? My answer is: not yet, but it’s moving in that direction.
First of all, condemning any manager with the kind of talent he's been stuck with over the last 3 seasons isn't fair. This team could be managed by a super-manager hybrid of Earl Weaver, Vince Lombardi, and Erwin Rommel, and they'd still stink.
That doesn't mean Manny should be immune from criticism, but it's part of the equation. And he's done enough to raise real questions about whether he's the best man for the job.
First, there are the slow starts. In 2007, they were 9-17 in April. In 2008, 11-17. And this year it's even worse. Year after year, his teams just aren't ready when the bell rings. That's a major, major problem.
The second big complaint I have is that Manny’s bullpen usage has been horrendous. He has always had one of the fastest hooks in baseball, regardless of whether it makes sense or not. He's overly committed to assigning specific bullpen "roles" based on inning instead of looking at match-ups and leverage as the game evolves. He shows far too much loyalty to "favorites," even when they're clearly not on (see: Ayala, Luis; Rivera, Saul).
In 2007, Manny earned effusive praise for his aggressive bullpen usage. It was the year of the Speigner-Bascik-Simontacchi-Bowie-Traber-Jerome Williams carousel of crapitude in the starting rotation, and the bullpen was excellent. The league average threw 524 innings with an ERA of 4.08, while the Nationals' pen, led by Chad Cordero, Jon Rauch, Saul Rivera, and Jesus Colome, threw 590 with an ERA of 3.81. Manny's bullpen usage was a big part of why we beat our Pythagorean record by 3 wins that year.
But it's become clear that Manny's quick hook was less a function of playing to his team's strengths and more just his way. In 2008, the bullpen ERA was a slightly below average 4.18, and he still had them throw 553.1 innings. Which in itself isn't so bad, but he used a quick hook even with his solid veterans. Odalis Perez, for instance, averaged just 90 pitches per start and was never once allowed to throw more than 107, despite a very effective 4.34 ERA. Tim Redding averaged 95 pitches per start, with a max of 114.
This year, the questionable has become ridiculous:
Base-stealing has been a problem. Last year they were 29th in baseball with a 65.3% steal rate, costing them about 6 runs over the course of the season, a little more than half a win. They were a stunning 0 for 7 attempting to steal third. My win probability added analysis shows that when you factor in the context, the Nationals actually cost themselves .798 wins trying to steal. Baseball Prospectus's EqBRR stat, which factors in not only stealing but all base-running events, figures they burned a whopping 16 runs on the basepaths. Last night Elijah Dukes got caught trying to steal third base with no outs in the second inning, an absolute red light situation if there ever was one.
And now he seems to be falling in love with one-run strategies like the squeeze bunt (which he called twice last night) and the hit-and-run, which is almost always a terrible play because it forces hitters to swing at bad pitches. Watching him force hitter with excellent plate discipline like Nick Johnson and Elijah Dukes swing at whatever's coming is like taking an exacto knife to the Mona Lisa.
(In fairness, this is a very recent development and a stark reversal from last year. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates' hitters swung the bat with runners in motion fewer times in 2008 than the Nationals. It's impossible to know how often the manager called the hit-and-run and how often the hitter simply chose to swing on a steal, but bottom line the Nationals did it 97 times last year, while the league-leader in this particular brand of over-managing was Lou Piniella at 173 swings with runners in motion. Hopefully, he'll put these new toys away, but still it's bizarre that he's doing this stuff now, just as he finally has some power.)
One thing I still don't agree with, however, is that Manny needs to yell and scream more. Personally, I don't think that's what wins games. Some folks want to see him be more of a disciplinarian with young players, but answer me this: what manager at any level has gotten as much out of Elijah Dukes as Manny has? Milledge maybe should be farther along, but it's not true that he hasn't progressed. Flores has regressed, but is it possible he just isn't that good? And do you doubt that he's getting the best from Lannan? What other young, talented players has had to work with?
Some coaches and managers yell a lot, others don't. Mike Holmgren screams a lot; Tony Dungy doesn't. Both are good coaches. Jerry Glanville yells; Norv Turner doesn't. Both are bad coaches. Phil Jackson and Bobby Knight are as different as you can be, except they both win. In baseball Joe Torre's been pretty successful with the emotionless stoic approach, while Earl Weaver and Lou Piniella win with temper-tantrums. Lee Elia's famous temper didn't make him a success in Chicago, nor did Dusty Baker's laid back routine.
I realize I'm switching sports, but if anything baseball is less conducive to the high-emotion approach. It's more a game of focus than adrenaline, more like golf than football. Ultimately I think each manager should just be himself. It's when a guy starts trying to be something he's not that you get into trouble.
Which brings me to probably the most important reason why it might make sense to break ties with Manny at the end of the day. It seems clear at this point that Rizzo wants more of a drill sergeant. That's not Manny. Forcing a marriage of two guys with starkly different approaches isn't a recipe for success. It's a continuation of the #1 reason the Nationals are a failing franchise (a bigger reason that Jim, if you can believe it), which is that no one hired the people who work for them. Kasten was stuck with Jim. Jim was stuck with Manny. Jim hired Manny's coaches. Stan forced Rizzo on Jim, and Jim inherited Dana Brown from the Expos.
Now, Rizzo's still laboring under the "acting" title, and I wonder, could he fire Manny if he wanted to? Probably not, so he's forced to try to make Manny yell more, which is a role Manny plays poorly. For once and for all, Mark Lerner need to tell Stan to hire a full-time GM, give him full authority to hire his own manager, scouting director, and player development team, and get out of the way. If that means Rizzo fires Manny and hires the baseball version of Tom Coughlin, so be it. It's not necessarily what I would want, but I'm not the GM.
So should Manny go? My answer is: not yet, but it’s moving in that direction.
First of all, condemning any manager with the kind of talent he's been stuck with over the last 3 seasons isn't fair. This team could be managed by a super-manager hybrid of Earl Weaver, Vince Lombardi, and Erwin Rommel, and they'd still stink.
That doesn't mean Manny should be immune from criticism, but it's part of the equation. And he's done enough to raise real questions about whether he's the best man for the job.
First, there are the slow starts. In 2007, they were 9-17 in April. In 2008, 11-17. And this year it's even worse. Year after year, his teams just aren't ready when the bell rings. That's a major, major problem.
The second big complaint I have is that Manny’s bullpen usage has been horrendous. He has always had one of the fastest hooks in baseball, regardless of whether it makes sense or not. He's overly committed to assigning specific bullpen "roles" based on inning instead of looking at match-ups and leverage as the game evolves. He shows far too much loyalty to "favorites," even when they're clearly not on (see: Ayala, Luis; Rivera, Saul).
In 2007, Manny earned effusive praise for his aggressive bullpen usage. It was the year of the Speigner-Bascik-Simontacchi-Bowie-Traber-Jerome Williams carousel of crapitude in the starting rotation, and the bullpen was excellent. The league average threw 524 innings with an ERA of 4.08, while the Nationals' pen, led by Chad Cordero, Jon Rauch, Saul Rivera, and Jesus Colome, threw 590 with an ERA of 3.81. Manny's bullpen usage was a big part of why we beat our Pythagorean record by 3 wins that year.
But it's become clear that Manny's quick hook was less a function of playing to his team's strengths and more just his way. In 2008, the bullpen ERA was a slightly below average 4.18, and he still had them throw 553.1 innings. Which in itself isn't so bad, but he used a quick hook even with his solid veterans. Odalis Perez, for instance, averaged just 90 pitches per start and was never once allowed to throw more than 107, despite a very effective 4.34 ERA. Tim Redding averaged 95 pitches per start, with a max of 114.
This year, the questionable has become ridiculous:
- Example one: April 13, top of the seventh, Phillies and Nationals are tied, 4-4. Due up: switch-hitter Shane Victorino, lefty Chase Utley, and lefty Ryan Howard. Everyone from here to Bucks County knows that Charlie Manuel does the opposing manager a favor every time he bats Utley and Howard back to back. Howard in particular is a Michael Bourn-like out machine against lefties, posting a .294 OBP against them last year. Manny has two lefties available, Joe Beimel and Wil Ledezma. He inexplicably goes to Saul Rivera, who hits Victorino and Utley before giving up a long ball to Howard. Nationals go on to lose 9-8.
- #2: April 18, top of the 8th, Nationals lead 6-3. Both Beimel and Joel Hanrahan have pitched 2 days in a row, so based on one of Manny's "rules," neither will be available on the 19th if they are used. Now, I know it's hard to remember with this team, but a 6-3 lead in the 8th inning is a pretty easy game to close out. You have a 95% chance of winning at that point. Even a pitcher with an ERA of 9.00 will give up fewer than 3 runs in 2 innings more often than not. Come to think of it, we had a pitcher with a 9.00 ERA cruising along having allowed only 1 run in 5 innings. The starter, Scott Olsen, had thrown just 102 pitches, a number he'd exceeded 8 times last year, a season that saw him go over 120 pitches twice. But Manny pulls the plug, uses his two "ace" relievers to get through the 9th. Of course Hanrahan coughed up the 3-run lead, and they lost anyway.
- #3: The next day, having burned up his two "best" relievers the day before, and with Julian Tavarez basically unavailable after he'd thrown 32 pitches in extra innings the day before, he faced the prospect of getting through 9 innings with Daniel Cabrera, Steven Shell, Mike Hinckley, Wil Ledezma, and Saul Rivera. Mercifully, Cabrera pitches well. By the top of the sixth, the Nationals are leading 3-1. Cabrera, who went 1-2-3 in the fifth, allows a lead-off double to Hanley Ramirez and then issues a walk to Ross Gload. Manny decides he's seen enough. Nevermind that Cabrera's only thrown 92 pitches, that he averaged 101 pitches per start last year, or that he's groundball pitcher with a far better shot at getting the double play than a flyball pitcher like Shell. Manny places his bet on the proposition that four guys, three of whom had ERAs of 6.75, 8.53, and 9.64, will get him through 4 innings with a one-run lead. Nationals miraculously made it to the ninth with a lead when the guy with the 8.53 ERA came in to raise it to 12.27 and lose the game.
- #4: On Monday, Jordan Zimmermann had thrown 72 pitches through 6 innings, holding the Braves to 2 runs on 6 hits and 1 walk. The Nationals lead 3-2. With 2 outs in the bottom of the 6th, Manny yanks the cruising Zimmermann for pinch hitter Alex Cintron, the automatic-est automatic out on the roster (the second time in two game that Cintron was called upon to pinch hit in a key situation, by the way, the first time with Willingham rotting on the bench and the last night with Kearns watching). Cintron flied out, and somehow the plan to let Kip Wells, Joe Beimel, and Joel Hanrahan hold a one-run lead for 3 innings held up. That doesn't mean Manny made the right decision.
Base-stealing has been a problem. Last year they were 29th in baseball with a 65.3% steal rate, costing them about 6 runs over the course of the season, a little more than half a win. They were a stunning 0 for 7 attempting to steal third. My win probability added analysis shows that when you factor in the context, the Nationals actually cost themselves .798 wins trying to steal. Baseball Prospectus's EqBRR stat, which factors in not only stealing but all base-running events, figures they burned a whopping 16 runs on the basepaths. Last night Elijah Dukes got caught trying to steal third base with no outs in the second inning, an absolute red light situation if there ever was one.
And now he seems to be falling in love with one-run strategies like the squeeze bunt (which he called twice last night) and the hit-and-run, which is almost always a terrible play because it forces hitters to swing at bad pitches. Watching him force hitter with excellent plate discipline like Nick Johnson and Elijah Dukes swing at whatever's coming is like taking an exacto knife to the Mona Lisa.
(In fairness, this is a very recent development and a stark reversal from last year. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates' hitters swung the bat with runners in motion fewer times in 2008 than the Nationals. It's impossible to know how often the manager called the hit-and-run and how often the hitter simply chose to swing on a steal, but bottom line the Nationals did it 97 times last year, while the league-leader in this particular brand of over-managing was Lou Piniella at 173 swings with runners in motion. Hopefully, he'll put these new toys away, but still it's bizarre that he's doing this stuff now, just as he finally has some power.)
One thing I still don't agree with, however, is that Manny needs to yell and scream more. Personally, I don't think that's what wins games. Some folks want to see him be more of a disciplinarian with young players, but answer me this: what manager at any level has gotten as much out of Elijah Dukes as Manny has? Milledge maybe should be farther along, but it's not true that he hasn't progressed. Flores has regressed, but is it possible he just isn't that good? And do you doubt that he's getting the best from Lannan? What other young, talented players has had to work with?
Some coaches and managers yell a lot, others don't. Mike Holmgren screams a lot; Tony Dungy doesn't. Both are good coaches. Jerry Glanville yells; Norv Turner doesn't. Both are bad coaches. Phil Jackson and Bobby Knight are as different as you can be, except they both win. In baseball Joe Torre's been pretty successful with the emotionless stoic approach, while Earl Weaver and Lou Piniella win with temper-tantrums. Lee Elia's famous temper didn't make him a success in Chicago, nor did Dusty Baker's laid back routine.
I realize I'm switching sports, but if anything baseball is less conducive to the high-emotion approach. It's more a game of focus than adrenaline, more like golf than football. Ultimately I think each manager should just be himself. It's when a guy starts trying to be something he's not that you get into trouble.
Which brings me to probably the most important reason why it might make sense to break ties with Manny at the end of the day. It seems clear at this point that Rizzo wants more of a drill sergeant. That's not Manny. Forcing a marriage of two guys with starkly different approaches isn't a recipe for success. It's a continuation of the #1 reason the Nationals are a failing franchise (a bigger reason that Jim, if you can believe it), which is that no one hired the people who work for them. Kasten was stuck with Jim. Jim was stuck with Manny. Jim hired Manny's coaches. Stan forced Rizzo on Jim, and Jim inherited Dana Brown from the Expos.
Now, Rizzo's still laboring under the "acting" title, and I wonder, could he fire Manny if he wanted to? Probably not, so he's forced to try to make Manny yell more, which is a role Manny plays poorly. For once and for all, Mark Lerner need to tell Stan to hire a full-time GM, give him full authority to hire his own manager, scouting director, and player development team, and get out of the way. If that means Rizzo fires Manny and hires the baseball version of Tom Coughlin, so be it. It's not necessarily what I would want, but I'm not the GM.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Natmosphere Fantasy Baseball League Week 2 Results
After two weeks, Dave from Nationals News Network is in first place in our weekly head-to-head 14-category league with a 21-5-2 record. This week he scored a clean sweep in his match-up with We've Got Heart, getting big weeks from Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Michael Young, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Chad Billingsley, Heath Bell, Ted Lilly, Zack Greinke, and Francisco Cordero. It was quite a statement week for Dave's squad, as he got a big week from pretty much everyone.
I finished the week in second place at 17-11 as Cheryl from Nationals News Network and I battled to a 7-7 tie. I pretty much won all the pitching categories behind Javier Vazquez, CC Sabathia, Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, John Danks, Frank Francisco, and Jonathan Broxton.
Cheryl meanwhile won almost all the hitting categories with strong weeks from Justin Morneau, Alfonso Soriano, Mark DeRosa, Jose Reyes, and Nelson Cruz, finishing the week in a close 4th place at 16-12.
The third place squad is VORP 10 Engage, who beat the Musings of Kenny G 11-3 to finish the week at 16-11-1. VORP 10 got big weeks from Carlos Pena, Ryan Ludwick, Jason Bay, Tim Lincecum, and Roy Halladay.
DC Sports Plus finished the week in 5th place with an 11-11-6 record overall, even though he lost a close battle with Hendo, 5-7. DC Sports Plus got very good weeks from Kevin Youkilis, Grady Sizemore, and Clayton Kershaw, but struggled in the pitching categories as James Shields, Ryan Dempster, and Daisuke Matsuzaka all got hit hard in their starts.
Hendo's narrow win came on big weeks from A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan, Matt Capps, and Bobby Jenks as well as power from Victor Martinez and Mark Teixeira.
Musings of Kenny G slipped to 7th place, as he got solid performances from Roy Oswalt, Manny Ramirez, and a huge week from Ian Kinsler, but slumps from Jacoby Ellsbury, Troy Tulowitzki, and Carlos Lee held him back.
We've Got Heart fell back to 8th place, but with her squad led by Johan Santana, Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Ryan Howard, Geovany Soto, and Francisco Rodriguez, she's going to do some damage very soon.
I finished the week in second place at 17-11 as Cheryl from Nationals News Network and I battled to a 7-7 tie. I pretty much won all the pitching categories behind Javier Vazquez, CC Sabathia, Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, John Danks, Frank Francisco, and Jonathan Broxton.
Cheryl meanwhile won almost all the hitting categories with strong weeks from Justin Morneau, Alfonso Soriano, Mark DeRosa, Jose Reyes, and Nelson Cruz, finishing the week in a close 4th place at 16-12.
The third place squad is VORP 10 Engage, who beat the Musings of Kenny G 11-3 to finish the week at 16-11-1. VORP 10 got big weeks from Carlos Pena, Ryan Ludwick, Jason Bay, Tim Lincecum, and Roy Halladay.
DC Sports Plus finished the week in 5th place with an 11-11-6 record overall, even though he lost a close battle with Hendo, 5-7. DC Sports Plus got very good weeks from Kevin Youkilis, Grady Sizemore, and Clayton Kershaw, but struggled in the pitching categories as James Shields, Ryan Dempster, and Daisuke Matsuzaka all got hit hard in their starts.
Hendo's narrow win came on big weeks from A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan, Matt Capps, and Bobby Jenks as well as power from Victor Martinez and Mark Teixeira.
Musings of Kenny G slipped to 7th place, as he got solid performances from Roy Oswalt, Manny Ramirez, and a huge week from Ian Kinsler, but slumps from Jacoby Ellsbury, Troy Tulowitzki, and Carlos Lee held him back.
We've Got Heart fell back to 8th place, but with her squad led by Johan Santana, Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Ryan Howard, Geovany Soto, and Francisco Rodriguez, she's going to do some damage very soon.
Scouting Report: Braves at Nationals (4/21)
Undefeated since yesterday! And something tells me Jason Bergmann's gonna pitch tonight! Woot!
Check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on the Atlanta hitters and bullpen. Here's my look at the Braves' starter for game 2 and prediction.
On the Mound
Kenshin Kawakami is a soft-tossing junkballer who throws a big looping curve, a cutter, and a slow, 89-90 mph fastball. According to pitch FX he's also throwing a splitter. Right-handed pitchers usually can't get by living under 90, so if Kawakami doesn't have another gear, the Braves might have a problem.
In Japan he had very good command but low strikeout rates. In two starts, however, he's struck out 11.25 per 9 and walking 5.25 per 9. That's only a 12 inning sample size, though, and watching his start against the Nationals, I don't expect him to keep missing bats. To be successful he needs to pitch to contact and avoid the walks.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 8-4
Easily my worst prediction of the year was guessing that the Nationals would lose to Joe Blanton in Martis's last start. Shame on me. What was I thinking?
Anyway, Martis is showing much improved command, but he's not striking anyone out, having whiffed only 2 of the 40 batters he's faced so far. It's hard to know what to make of his relative success so far, since his peripheral stats are so unlike his strengths in the past. And his success hasn't actually been all that successful.
Still, the Braves are really scuffling as a team right now, having lost 6 of 7, including 3 losses to the Pirates and one to the Scats last night. Johnson, Kotchman, and Schafer are all slumping, and David Ross is a far cry from Brian McCann. Escobar and Chipper haven't really gotten it going since missing some time with minor injuries. Our guys might be catching them at the right time.
For the third time this year (I haven't been right yet...) I'm picking a Nationals victory--a close one, something like 6-5. Look for Dunn to go deep, and probably Chipper too.
Check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on the Atlanta hitters and bullpen. Here's my look at the Braves' starter for game 2 and prediction.
On the Mound
Kenshin Kawakami is a soft-tossing junkballer who throws a big looping curve, a cutter, and a slow, 89-90 mph fastball. According to pitch FX he's also throwing a splitter. Right-handed pitchers usually can't get by living under 90, so if Kawakami doesn't have another gear, the Braves might have a problem.
In Japan he had very good command but low strikeout rates. In two starts, however, he's struck out 11.25 per 9 and walking 5.25 per 9. That's only a 12 inning sample size, though, and watching his start against the Nationals, I don't expect him to keep missing bats. To be successful he needs to pitch to contact and avoid the walks.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 8-4
Easily my worst prediction of the year was guessing that the Nationals would lose to Joe Blanton in Martis's last start. Shame on me. What was I thinking?
Anyway, Martis is showing much improved command, but he's not striking anyone out, having whiffed only 2 of the 40 batters he's faced so far. It's hard to know what to make of his relative success so far, since his peripheral stats are so unlike his strengths in the past. And his success hasn't actually been all that successful.
Still, the Braves are really scuffling as a team right now, having lost 6 of 7, including 3 losses to the Pirates and one to the Scats last night. Johnson, Kotchman, and Schafer are all slumping, and David Ross is a far cry from Brian McCann. Escobar and Chipper haven't really gotten it going since missing some time with minor injuries. Our guys might be catching them at the right time.
For the third time this year (I haven't been right yet...) I'm picking a Nationals victory--a close one, something like 6-5. Look for Dunn to go deep, and probably Chipper too.
If Saul Rivera Is the Answer, What's the Question?
I've always liked old Saul. I love the heavy sinkers, and the workload he's taken on the last three years has been huge for the team. But with Joe Beimel headed to the DL with a flexor strain, is it really possible that Rivera's our best option now? I've covered it yesterday, but the short thing is that his velocity and movement are both way down, and he's not a guy with the stuff to get major leaguers out right now.
NFA Brian suggests Tyler Clippard, probably with an eye to the guys currently on the 40-man. Me, I could care less about the 40-man. With guys like Dmitri Young (and for that matter Tyler Clippard) cluttering up the roster we have more than enough space to pick the best guy available. Seems to me that Marco Estrada, Craig Stammen, J.D. Martin, Preston Larrison... any of those guys I'd rather see than Rivera right now. And as far as I know there's no reason they couldn't bring Steven Shell back either, though I guess Shell would have to want to come back.
NFA Brian suggests Tyler Clippard, probably with an eye to the guys currently on the 40-man. Me, I could care less about the 40-man. With guys like Dmitri Young (and for that matter Tyler Clippard) cluttering up the roster we have more than enough space to pick the best guy available. Seems to me that Marco Estrada, Craig Stammen, J.D. Martin, Preston Larrison... any of those guys I'd rather see than Rivera right now. And as far as I know there's no reason they couldn't bring Steven Shell back either, though I guess Shell would have to want to come back.
If a Pitcher Debuts and No One Is There to See it... Does it Count on the Arb Clock?
I know, bad weather, the Caps were playing, blah blah. It was a disappointing showing for the debut of our #1 prospect.
Moms of Great Falls Say, "You OK, Dawg"
How much do I love this? The Nationals idiotically fine Elijah Dukes for being 5 minutes late after staying a little too long at a little league function in Great Falls, and the moms of Great Falls (clearly a bunch of Judy Feder voters) raise the money to pay the fine.
The only problem is that they apparently gave their money directly to the team, so the odds of Elijah seeing a dime of that money seems pretty slim. (Don't they know that all checks for Elijah should be made out to "Nishea Gilbert"?) Manny said they "don't care how the fine gets paid," but you could hear Mark Lerner in the background saying, "or how many times it gets paid."
Can you imagine if Dukes had actually been sent to Syracuse over this? He would have had care packages arriving daily.
As if the Nationals don't look stupid enough in this whole thing, we get this quote from Manny yesterday:
(Apparently he was paid $500 for the appearance, but whatever--I don't thing very many pro athletes would spend a morning with kids for double that.)
Just more evidence that the myth created by the Tampa media that Elijah Dukes is some puppy-strangling, baby-killing neighborhood scourge is just that--a myth. He's had problems in the past controlling his temper, and he would have been a lot better off if he had been sick the day they did the "condoms don't work" lecture in Jeb Bush's abstinence-only education program, but when the papers are going red in the face over "crimes" like throwing an empty pop can at somebody and a teenage pot bust, your bullshit detector should be going crazy.
P.S. Gotta do a better job charging those base hits, Elijah. I didn't like you jogging lazily up to that Matt Diaz single and letting him take second base. Aside from that, you okay, dawg.
The only problem is that they apparently gave their money directly to the team, so the odds of Elijah seeing a dime of that money seems pretty slim. (Don't they know that all checks for Elijah should be made out to "Nishea Gilbert"?) Manny said they "don't care how the fine gets paid," but you could hear Mark Lerner in the background saying, "or how many times it gets paid."
Can you imagine if Dukes had actually been sent to Syracuse over this? He would have had care packages arriving daily.
As if the Nationals don't look stupid enough in this whole thing, we get this quote from Manny yesterday:
But what a lot of people are misunderstanding is, this was not a team function. If this had been [set up] through the team, I think someone would have advised him not to do something like that before a day game.Stop, Manny, just stop. So, what we fail to understand is that because Dukes was helping out at the little league game on his own initiative, not ordered to do so by his employer, that somehow makes it worse?
(Apparently he was paid $500 for the appearance, but whatever--I don't thing very many pro athletes would spend a morning with kids for double that.)
Just more evidence that the myth created by the Tampa media that Elijah Dukes is some puppy-strangling, baby-killing neighborhood scourge is just that--a myth. He's had problems in the past controlling his temper, and he would have been a lot better off if he had been sick the day they did the "condoms don't work" lecture in Jeb Bush's abstinence-only education program, but when the papers are going red in the face over "crimes" like throwing an empty pop can at somebody and a teenage pot bust, your bullshit detector should be going crazy.
P.S. Gotta do a better job charging those base hits, Elijah. I didn't like you jogging lazily up to that Matt Diaz single and letting him take second base. Aside from that, you okay, dawg.
The Roster Moves
Here's my take on the latest roster churning. I'll give this team credit for one thing... they certainly keep you busy on the transactions analysis.
Before we get to the bullpen, we have the matter of Justin Maxwell, our Baseball America #10 prospect (he was listed as #11 in the Prospect Handbook, but that was with the fictional Esmailyn Gonzalez in the #10 spot, so I think it's appropriate to bump everyone else up a notch). J-Max is a 6'5", 25-year-old University of Maryland graduate. He can play all three outfield spots, and although he's mostly played centerfield in the minors some think he'll eventually get moved to left because of his arm and occasionally suspect routes to the ball.
He's shown a patient approach at the plate, walking in 11.8% of plate appearances across three levels (A, high A, and AA) in 2007 and 2008. He also has a good deal of raw power, evidenced by ISO power rates of .278, .228, and .226 across those three levels, respectively. He tends to strike out too much, but his real problem is that he hasn't been able to stay healthy. In fact, 2007 was the only year that he didn't get hurt since getting drafted in the fourth round of the 2005 draft.
More than anything he needs at bats, so why is he here playing the fifth outfielder role where he's just going to sit most of the time? Rizzo said that it's because he was already the 40 man, and they didn't want to have to make a corresponding roster move, but shouldn't the development of our prospects be our top priority? Are we really so worried about a guy like Dmitri Young getting claimed on waivers? I'm happy for Maxwell, but it's really not in his or the team's best interests to be here.
Chico Harlan asked about Corey Patterson, who would have made more sense than Maxwell as a defensive replacement, but Ryan Langerhans would have been my choice. All he did last year was put up a .380 on-base percentage while playing gold glove defense wherever we put him (well, except first base... he was a little ugly there).
As for the bullpen, mostly we're just seeing the guys we should have seen Opening Day if the team had done the right thing and kept the best 25. Clearly Jason Bergmann should have been here from the start. Yeah, I know, waivers, options... whatever. If someone wants Wil Ledezma so bad they can have him. There are lots of career 5.17 ERA guys littering the landscape who can give up gopherballs as well as he can. The Bergy question is well covered territory for me, so I'll just leave it at that.
Garrett Mock was also clearly one of our best 7 relievers at the end of spring training. He has that great combination of strong groundball rates and excellent strikeout ability that you love to see. Last year he pitched 108 innings at AAA with a 3.34 ERA (which translates to a Major League equivalent of 4.35). He was even better in a brief call-up, posting a fielding independent ERA of 3.84, while he striking out more than 10 per 9. Command can be an issue, but he's better than the guys he's replacing.
Kip Wells is a little harder to get excited about, but he's a groundball guy, which Rizzo likes. For some reason the Marcel and Bill James projections expect him to pitch in the mid-4s ERA this year. His problem has always been command. But in 11 innings at Syracuse he's only walked two, while striking out 11. So I'm not going to boo just yet. Rizzo might be on to something.
Of the guys going down, obviously Saul needed to go. Pitch FX confirms what anyone could see with their own two eyes--the movement on his sinking fastball is just nowhere near what it used to be. The pitch recognition of pitch FX isn't perfect, but if you click that link it's telling you that the vertical movement on his fastball has declined from 7.2 inches last year to 4.9 this year. The velocity on everything is down a tick as well, except his change-up, which is actually faster (though that's probably pitch FX mistaking fastballs for changes, also not a good sign).
Wil Ledezma just has no idea where the ball is going. People seem to think he'll get claimed on waivers, but I doubt it. Someone said he'll refuse the assignment to Syracuse, but I'm not sure what other choice he's going to have. If he can't cut the mustard here, who's going to guarantee him a Major League roster spot? Maybe he has a new career in mind.
If you're going to be unhappy about any of these cuts, Steven Shell I guess is the one. He did make it through 50 innings with a 2.16 ERA last year while stranding a league-average 71% of inherited runners, which should be worth something, right? Well, yeah, but not a lot. He did that on a .225 BABIP and 85.7% strand rate. His fielding independent ERA of 4.11 tells us he was ok, but nothing special. And I always kind of felt like after a few times through the division his goofy delivery would lose some of it's deceptiveness. We grabbed him off the junkpile, and if someone else wants to take a shot that's fine. I'm still betting he clears waivers and is back in the organization shortly.
Before we get to the bullpen, we have the matter of Justin Maxwell, our Baseball America #10 prospect (he was listed as #11 in the Prospect Handbook, but that was with the fictional Esmailyn Gonzalez in the #10 spot, so I think it's appropriate to bump everyone else up a notch). J-Max is a 6'5", 25-year-old University of Maryland graduate. He can play all three outfield spots, and although he's mostly played centerfield in the minors some think he'll eventually get moved to left because of his arm and occasionally suspect routes to the ball.
He's shown a patient approach at the plate, walking in 11.8% of plate appearances across three levels (A, high A, and AA) in 2007 and 2008. He also has a good deal of raw power, evidenced by ISO power rates of .278, .228, and .226 across those three levels, respectively. He tends to strike out too much, but his real problem is that he hasn't been able to stay healthy. In fact, 2007 was the only year that he didn't get hurt since getting drafted in the fourth round of the 2005 draft.
More than anything he needs at bats, so why is he here playing the fifth outfielder role where he's just going to sit most of the time? Rizzo said that it's because he was already the 40 man, and they didn't want to have to make a corresponding roster move, but shouldn't the development of our prospects be our top priority? Are we really so worried about a guy like Dmitri Young getting claimed on waivers? I'm happy for Maxwell, but it's really not in his or the team's best interests to be here.
Chico Harlan asked about Corey Patterson, who would have made more sense than Maxwell as a defensive replacement, but Ryan Langerhans would have been my choice. All he did last year was put up a .380 on-base percentage while playing gold glove defense wherever we put him (well, except first base... he was a little ugly there).
As for the bullpen, mostly we're just seeing the guys we should have seen Opening Day if the team had done the right thing and kept the best 25. Clearly Jason Bergmann should have been here from the start. Yeah, I know, waivers, options... whatever. If someone wants Wil Ledezma so bad they can have him. There are lots of career 5.17 ERA guys littering the landscape who can give up gopherballs as well as he can. The Bergy question is well covered territory for me, so I'll just leave it at that.
Garrett Mock was also clearly one of our best 7 relievers at the end of spring training. He has that great combination of strong groundball rates and excellent strikeout ability that you love to see. Last year he pitched 108 innings at AAA with a 3.34 ERA (which translates to a Major League equivalent of 4.35). He was even better in a brief call-up, posting a fielding independent ERA of 3.84, while he striking out more than 10 per 9. Command can be an issue, but he's better than the guys he's replacing.
Kip Wells is a little harder to get excited about, but he's a groundball guy, which Rizzo likes. For some reason the Marcel and Bill James projections expect him to pitch in the mid-4s ERA this year. His problem has always been command. But in 11 innings at Syracuse he's only walked two, while striking out 11. So I'm not going to boo just yet. Rizzo might be on to something.
Of the guys going down, obviously Saul needed to go. Pitch FX confirms what anyone could see with their own two eyes--the movement on his sinking fastball is just nowhere near what it used to be. The pitch recognition of pitch FX isn't perfect, but if you click that link it's telling you that the vertical movement on his fastball has declined from 7.2 inches last year to 4.9 this year. The velocity on everything is down a tick as well, except his change-up, which is actually faster (though that's probably pitch FX mistaking fastballs for changes, also not a good sign).
Wil Ledezma just has no idea where the ball is going. People seem to think he'll get claimed on waivers, but I doubt it. Someone said he'll refuse the assignment to Syracuse, but I'm not sure what other choice he's going to have. If he can't cut the mustard here, who's going to guarantee him a Major League roster spot? Maybe he has a new career in mind.
If you're going to be unhappy about any of these cuts, Steven Shell I guess is the one. He did make it through 50 innings with a 2.16 ERA last year while stranding a league-average 71% of inherited runners, which should be worth something, right? Well, yeah, but not a lot. He did that on a .225 BABIP and 85.7% strand rate. His fielding independent ERA of 4.11 tells us he was ok, but nothing special. And I always kind of felt like after a few times through the division his goofy delivery would lose some of it's deceptiveness. We grabbed him off the junkpile, and if someone else wants to take a shot that's fine. I'm still betting he clears waivers and is back in the organization shortly.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Nationals Wait 2 Hours to Protect Zimmermann, Bullpen
This game clearly could have started right on time at 7:05. There was hardly a drop until around 8:30. I'm assuming that they held off the start in order to protect Jordan Zimmermann's first start as well as the bullpen. If they had started on time, Zimmermann would have had to sit once the rains came. The bullpen would have been stuck with probably 5-6 innings to fill (again), and Zimmermann's debut would have been ruined. That's a call that came from upstairs, and it's a good sign that someone up there is thinking.
- Unfortunately Manny apparently isn't thinking. You really think Jordan Zimmermann's debut is the right time to test out your worst defensive alignment possible in the outfield? Dunn misplayed a Chipper Jones double into a triple in the third, and Dukes lollygagged a Matt Diaz single into a double. That's so far. Hey, Flash Jordan's a groundball pitcher, so maybe in his third or fourth start you can test this out. But he should have the best defense out there possible, and that means Kearns in right.
How Thoughtful!
I'm sitting here in Nationals Park ($5 tickets were still available 10 minutes before game time by the way), and because of the rain delay they just put the freaking Marlins up on the big screen. Oh yeah, I really want to look at those guys again. Thanks a lot Stan. Don't you have some video of my parents having sex or maybe Ted Lerner naked or something else that I'd much rather look at than this?
Not that there's a hockey game that people might be interested in or anything.
Not that there's a hockey game that people might be interested in or anything.
Scouting Report: Braves at Nationals (4/20)
Happy 4/20. If Nationals fans seem strangely happy given the state of the team, it might not be just because of the Zimmerman contract or excitement over the arrival of Flash Jordan. Hope the concessions stands are well stocked.
Here's my preview of the Atlanta series, including the line-up, bullpen, and game one starter Derek Lowe.
When the Braves are Up
--Chipper Jones missed a couple games with a bruised thumb that reportedly was bothering him during the Nationals series last week. But he was back yesterday and went 1 for 3 with a walk. Otherwise, he's off to a solid Chipper-esque start, hitting .333 / .419 / .519 through his first 31 trips to the plate.
--The book on rookie CF Jordan Schafer is that he's a good hitter with solid on-base skills and some pop, but that he has a tendency to strike out too much and can be wicked streaky. Well, so far he's striking out in 40% of his plate appearances, check. And while he started out red hot, he abruptly hit a 1 for 22 skid that was snapped with a 3-for-5 day yesterday. Hopefully that was a momentary departure from an ongoing slump and not the beginning of another hot streak.
--Brian McCann abused the Nationals last week, but like Schafer has slumped since, going 0 for his last 13. Reportedly he's having blurry vision in his left eye, and he's likely to miss at least the first game of the series, maybe more. He'll be replaced by David Ross, a 32-year-old righty who put up some big HR numbers in the Great American Small Park. He's an out machine who lost his last starting gig in 2007 with a putrid .271 OBP.
--Jeff Francoeur is off to a decent start, hitting .333 / .347 / .521 through the first two weeks. Still, he's taken only one walk on the year. Look for him to hit an extended skid starting pretty soon.
--Shortstop Yunel Escobar has been out for a few days with an abdominal strain. When he was playing, he was off to a hot start, posting a .402 wOBA over his first 38 PA. If he doesn't play, it'll be utility-man Omar Infante, who isn't particularly good or terrible.
--Veteran left-fielder Garret Anderson missed the Nationals series with a calf injury. One could argue that his poor numbers are a result of his bad fortune missing the Scats' pitchers, but that would be catty. He's always been a hacker, but continuing a long-term trend he's showing less and less power. Singles hitters who don't walk while playing below average defense aren't very useful. Step right up Frank Wren! Get your left-fielders right here! We've got a bunch, and they're very punctual!
--Overrated second-baseman Kelly Johnson went 6 for 10 with 2 doubles and a homer against the Nationals. Against non-Nationals pitching, he's got a miserable .222 OBP and .125 BA. He's also 0 for 1 in stolen base attempts and should have gotten a strict red light on the base paths years ago.
--Casey Kotchman has been his usual slappy self so far this season. He's got 3 XBH in 46 PA so far this year. Just not really the production you want from first base. Step right up Frank Wren! Get your first-basemen right here! We've got a bunch, and they're very punctual!
On the Mound
Derek Lowe has stepped right into the Tim Hudson role, pounding the zone with sinkers and eating up innings. He's got his usual 60+% groundball rate going and looks as strong as ever at age 36. We saw him in the last series on another rainy night in Atlanta, and we actually managed one run off of him in 3 innings. But Lowe held us to a .130 / .161 / .204 line last year.
The Bullpen
--Lefty closer Mike Gonzalez has an ugly 7.20 ERA, but he's ok. He's struck out 8 of the first 24 hitters he's seen this year and been victimized by a small sample-size .496 BABIP.
--Rafael Soriano has been impressive since returning from elbow surgery last season, throwing 5 shutout innings to start the year.
--The drop-off after those two is pretty steep to guys like Pete Moylan. The Atlanta bullpen remains a vulnerability.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 8-3
Lowe dominates. Zimmermann does well enough in 5-6 innings max. Atlanta rolls, 5-0.
Here's my preview of the Atlanta series, including the line-up, bullpen, and game one starter Derek Lowe.
When the Braves are Up
--Chipper Jones missed a couple games with a bruised thumb that reportedly was bothering him during the Nationals series last week. But he was back yesterday and went 1 for 3 with a walk. Otherwise, he's off to a solid Chipper-esque start, hitting .333 / .419 / .519 through his first 31 trips to the plate.
--The book on rookie CF Jordan Schafer is that he's a good hitter with solid on-base skills and some pop, but that he has a tendency to strike out too much and can be wicked streaky. Well, so far he's striking out in 40% of his plate appearances, check. And while he started out red hot, he abruptly hit a 1 for 22 skid that was snapped with a 3-for-5 day yesterday. Hopefully that was a momentary departure from an ongoing slump and not the beginning of another hot streak.
--Brian McCann abused the Nationals last week, but like Schafer has slumped since, going 0 for his last 13. Reportedly he's having blurry vision in his left eye, and he's likely to miss at least the first game of the series, maybe more. He'll be replaced by David Ross, a 32-year-old righty who put up some big HR numbers in the Great American Small Park. He's an out machine who lost his last starting gig in 2007 with a putrid .271 OBP.
--Jeff Francoeur is off to a decent start, hitting .333 / .347 / .521 through the first two weeks. Still, he's taken only one walk on the year. Look for him to hit an extended skid starting pretty soon.
--Shortstop Yunel Escobar has been out for a few days with an abdominal strain. When he was playing, he was off to a hot start, posting a .402 wOBA over his first 38 PA. If he doesn't play, it'll be utility-man Omar Infante, who isn't particularly good or terrible.
--Veteran left-fielder Garret Anderson missed the Nationals series with a calf injury. One could argue that his poor numbers are a result of his bad fortune missing the Scats' pitchers, but that would be catty. He's always been a hacker, but continuing a long-term trend he's showing less and less power. Singles hitters who don't walk while playing below average defense aren't very useful. Step right up Frank Wren! Get your left-fielders right here! We've got a bunch, and they're very punctual!
--Overrated second-baseman Kelly Johnson went 6 for 10 with 2 doubles and a homer against the Nationals. Against non-Nationals pitching, he's got a miserable .222 OBP and .125 BA. He's also 0 for 1 in stolen base attempts and should have gotten a strict red light on the base paths years ago.
--Casey Kotchman has been his usual slappy self so far this season. He's got 3 XBH in 46 PA so far this year. Just not really the production you want from first base. Step right up Frank Wren! Get your first-basemen right here! We've got a bunch, and they're very punctual!
On the Mound
Derek Lowe has stepped right into the Tim Hudson role, pounding the zone with sinkers and eating up innings. He's got his usual 60+% groundball rate going and looks as strong as ever at age 36. We saw him in the last series on another rainy night in Atlanta, and we actually managed one run off of him in 3 innings. But Lowe held us to a .130 / .161 / .204 line last year.
The Bullpen
--Lefty closer Mike Gonzalez has an ugly 7.20 ERA, but he's ok. He's struck out 8 of the first 24 hitters he's seen this year and been victimized by a small sample-size .496 BABIP.
--Rafael Soriano has been impressive since returning from elbow surgery last season, throwing 5 shutout innings to start the year.
--The drop-off after those two is pretty steep to guys like Pete Moylan. The Atlanta bullpen remains a vulnerability.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 8-3
Lowe dominates. Zimmermann does well enough in 5-6 innings max. Atlanta rolls, 5-0.
You Ain't Seen Nothin' from The Mighty Zim
Congratulations, Ryan. You're set for life, and you deserve your taste. Good luck, and good health.
To celebrate the occasion, let's cue of the highlight reel:
To celebrate the occasion, let's cue of the highlight reel:
- Just this past weekend, Zimmerman snares a hot shot to his right, spins from foul territory to make a strong throw to nail the lead runner.
- Welcome home! Zimmerman christens the new stadium with a walk off winner on national TV.
- Pedro Feliz robbed on a hot liner.
- Ryan's first homer in months last summer after finally recovering from a power-zapping shoulder injury sparked a late season power surge in 2008 that told fans everywhere that he was back.
- Zim makes a great stop and long throw to nail Pat Burrell.
- And this little news clip...
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Alex Cintron Must Be Incredibly Punctual
It was odd on Saturday to see Alex Cintron called upon to pinch hit leading off the bottom of the 7th inning with Josh Willingham sitting. Well, we know Manny has this little fetish that every time a player gets called up, they get to play in their first game with the team. Nevermind that the only reason Cintron is here is to be an emergency back-up middle infielder. He struck out on three pitches against struggling Marlins reliever Logan Kensing.
But, I figured, what the heck. Nationals were up 3 late in the game. Their win expectancy at that moment was 94%.
Fast forward to 20 minutes ago. It's the bottom of the 8th. Nationals are up one perilous run. Runners are on first and second. Two outs. With a completely burned up bullpen and completely spent Saul Rivera warming up, they desperately need another insurance run. So again with Josh Willingham rotting on the bench, Manny turns to... Alex Fucking Cintron.
Alex Cintron, who has a career .315 OBP. Alex Cintron, who hasn't been an above replacement-level player since 2005. Alex Fucking Cintron.
Of course the hacktastic, punchless Cintron popped out to end the inning. You know what Rivera did.
Argh!! What do we do with this team? When I fretted this off season about the bullpen, a lot of people poo-pooed it and said, "ah, middle relief is fungible. You can always dig up a couple minor league starters and get 60 innings of adequate relief." Well, this is what I was worried about. A starting rotation that can't make it through the 5th inning more often than not, an overworked Saul Rivera and a dubious closer who for most of his career had no idea where the ball is going. And 5 other guys who just plain stink. (OK, then they got Beimel, which was good, but the rest of them suck on ice.)
We don't have any silver bullets in this organization, but let me tell you this. When you pass over your best pitchers, you're asking for trouble. Jason Bergmann is better than Steve Shell. Jesus Colome is better than Wil Ledezma and Mike Hickley. And Shawn Hill is better than anybody on the team.
But back to Manny. Your quick hook isn't always the right thing to do, you know. Daniel Cabrera gets pulled today after 92 pitches and 5+ innings. This is a guy who went over 100 pitches 18 times last year and 90 times over his career. He threw more than 92 pitches in 26 of 30 starts last year. His only remaining redeeming quality as a starting pitcher is his durability. Was he looking good after allowing a lead-off double to Hanley Ramirez and a walk to John Baker? Not especially. But he went 1-2-3 in the fifth. You really think your best shot to win was to try to get through 4 innings with Mike Hinckley, Wil Ledezma, Steve Shell, and Saul Rivera? Are you sure that's your best play?
One last thing. Put away the damn hit-and-run, Manny. It's a terrible, self-defeating play. You're making your most patient hitters swing at junk and creating outs on the base paths. When you lose a game like this and Adam Dunn has a CS next to his name, that's a problem.
But, I figured, what the heck. Nationals were up 3 late in the game. Their win expectancy at that moment was 94%.
Fast forward to 20 minutes ago. It's the bottom of the 8th. Nationals are up one perilous run. Runners are on first and second. Two outs. With a completely burned up bullpen and completely spent Saul Rivera warming up, they desperately need another insurance run. So again with Josh Willingham rotting on the bench, Manny turns to... Alex Fucking Cintron.
Alex Cintron, who has a career .315 OBP. Alex Cintron, who hasn't been an above replacement-level player since 2005. Alex Fucking Cintron.
Of course the hacktastic, punchless Cintron popped out to end the inning. You know what Rivera did.
Argh!! What do we do with this team? When I fretted this off season about the bullpen, a lot of people poo-pooed it and said, "ah, middle relief is fungible. You can always dig up a couple minor league starters and get 60 innings of adequate relief." Well, this is what I was worried about. A starting rotation that can't make it through the 5th inning more often than not, an overworked Saul Rivera and a dubious closer who for most of his career had no idea where the ball is going. And 5 other guys who just plain stink. (OK, then they got Beimel, which was good, but the rest of them suck on ice.)
We don't have any silver bullets in this organization, but let me tell you this. When you pass over your best pitchers, you're asking for trouble. Jason Bergmann is better than Steve Shell. Jesus Colome is better than Wil Ledezma and Mike Hickley. And Shawn Hill is better than anybody on the team.
But back to Manny. Your quick hook isn't always the right thing to do, you know. Daniel Cabrera gets pulled today after 92 pitches and 5+ innings. This is a guy who went over 100 pitches 18 times last year and 90 times over his career. He threw more than 92 pitches in 26 of 30 starts last year. His only remaining redeeming quality as a starting pitcher is his durability. Was he looking good after allowing a lead-off double to Hanley Ramirez and a walk to John Baker? Not especially. But he went 1-2-3 in the fifth. You really think your best shot to win was to try to get through 4 innings with Mike Hinckley, Wil Ledezma, Steve Shell, and Saul Rivera? Are you sure that's your best play?
One last thing. Put away the damn hit-and-run, Manny. It's a terrible, self-defeating play. You're making your most patient hitters swing at junk and creating outs on the base paths. When you lose a game like this and Adam Dunn has a CS next to his name, that's a problem.
Are the Nationals not only the Worst Team in MLB, but also the Luckiest?
One would guess that a team like the Nationals, sitting on a .100 winning percentage, would be probably suffering from a run of bad luck and be due for some regression to the mean. In some areas they are, but in one really important area, they've had more than their share of good fortune.
The Nationals are second to only the Cleveland Indians with a .345 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). This stat, which essentially tells us the team's batting average when they don't strike out or hit a home run, is largely influenced by factors outside the batters' control, like fielding, park effects, and dumb luck.
For context, BABIP usually hovers around .300-.310 or so. The lowest team BABIP in this young season belongs to the Reds, way down at .251. Last year's highest team BABIP belonged to the Texas Rangers at .329 (who not coincidentally were the highest scoring team in the league), and the Reds again where the worst at .280.
Now, BABIP isn't totally about luck, as you probably could deduce from the Reds' consistently being the league caboose. Better hitters who hit more sharply hit balls can consistently maintain a higher BABIP. Also, groundballs tend to become hits more often than flyballs (though grounders never become homers, so all things considered flyballs are better than grounders for the offense, but I digress).
And indeed, the Nationals currently lead MLB with a 23.8% line-drive rate on batted balls. That's a really, really good number (although this stat is a highly subjective one that should be treated as a good estimate rather than a precise measurement). Those league-leading Rangers last year were second in MLB with a 22.1% LD rate in 2008 (the Mets were tops at 22.9%).
There are more sophisticated ways to measure expected BABIP, but just eyeballing it, if the Rangers' 22.1% LD rate got them to a .329 BABIP over the course of a full season, even if the Nationals could maintain a 23.8% LD rate (and they can't, but let's just say), they'd be due for some significant regression from their current sky-high .345 BABIP. And if you knock 15-20 points off that number, that's a significant number of seeing-eye grounders, bloopers, and also sharply hit balls becoming outs.
Those most overdue for payments to the BABIP piper: Guzman (.630!!), Hernandez (.455), Johnson (.481), and Flores (.438).
* * *
Hat tip to budding SABR maven Chico Harlan for pointing this out to me. He emailed me about it a few days ago, but since he hadn't used it yet himself I figured I would. Still, if this little factoid pops up in an article, let it be known I stole it from him, not vicey-versey.
The Nationals are second to only the Cleveland Indians with a .345 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). This stat, which essentially tells us the team's batting average when they don't strike out or hit a home run, is largely influenced by factors outside the batters' control, like fielding, park effects, and dumb luck.
For context, BABIP usually hovers around .300-.310 or so. The lowest team BABIP in this young season belongs to the Reds, way down at .251. Last year's highest team BABIP belonged to the Texas Rangers at .329 (who not coincidentally were the highest scoring team in the league), and the Reds again where the worst at .280.
Now, BABIP isn't totally about luck, as you probably could deduce from the Reds' consistently being the league caboose. Better hitters who hit more sharply hit balls can consistently maintain a higher BABIP. Also, groundballs tend to become hits more often than flyballs (though grounders never become homers, so all things considered flyballs are better than grounders for the offense, but I digress).
And indeed, the Nationals currently lead MLB with a 23.8% line-drive rate on batted balls. That's a really, really good number (although this stat is a highly subjective one that should be treated as a good estimate rather than a precise measurement). Those league-leading Rangers last year were second in MLB with a 22.1% LD rate in 2008 (the Mets were tops at 22.9%).
There are more sophisticated ways to measure expected BABIP, but just eyeballing it, if the Rangers' 22.1% LD rate got them to a .329 BABIP over the course of a full season, even if the Nationals could maintain a 23.8% LD rate (and they can't, but let's just say), they'd be due for some significant regression from their current sky-high .345 BABIP. And if you knock 15-20 points off that number, that's a significant number of seeing-eye grounders, bloopers, and also sharply hit balls becoming outs.
Those most overdue for payments to the BABIP piper: Guzman (.630!!), Hernandez (.455), Johnson (.481), and Flores (.438).
* * *
Hat tip to budding SABR maven Chico Harlan for pointing this out to me. He emailed me about it a few days ago, but since he hadn't used it yet himself I figured I would. Still, if this little factoid pops up in an article, let it be known I stole it from him, not vicey-versey.
Scouting Report: Marlins at Nationals (4/19)
The Scats try to avoid getting swept away for the third time in their first four series. Rumor has it that Daniel Cabrera is volunteering at a homeless shelter this morning, so there's some possibility that he'll get his outright release before the start. If he can avoid the wrath of Rizz, he'll face off against Chris Volstad.
Check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on the Florida hitters and bullpen. Here's my look at the Marlins' starter for the series finale and prediction.
On the Mound
Chris Volstad: The 6'7" 22-year-old is off to an excellent start. He faced the Nationals in the season-opening series and allowed 2 runs in the first inning. Since then, he's allowed 1 run in 11 innings against the Scats and the Braves and is coming in with a 1.50 ERA.
As he did last year, however, he's benefited from some really good luck. He's stranded 83.3% of runners (70% is typical), and profited from a .149 BABIP (groundball pitchers like Volstad usually are in the .310-.320 range).
Despite his size, he's known as a finesse/command guy, but so far this year he's putting up numbers more like the power pitcher you'd expect him to be. He's struck out 11 of the 45 batters he's faced, a dominating 24.4%, and all his pitches are up about one mph, with the fastball now sitting at 91.6 on average, occasionally hitting 93-94.
He's a fastball, curveball, change-up groundball pitcher. Like fellow groundballer Josh Johnson yesterday, he'll be vulnerable to an unusually high number of seeing-eye grounders, as Cantu, Uggla, Ramirez, and Bonfacio are all below par fielders. He's shown a slight reverse platoon split in the very small sample size of 410 batters faced going back to last year.
Daniel Cabrera: I haven't been previewing Nationals pitchers, but I feel I've neglected the Cabrera situation, so here's a bonus "on the mound" special.
Like Scott Olsen, Cabrera has seen his velocity and strikeout rates plummet over the last three seasons. Three years ago, he was at 94.3 mph on his fastball while K-ing 9.55 per 9. Since then both of those numbers have dropped steadily and in his first two starts of the year he's down to 90.6 and 4.91 per 9. What that means, is that D-Cab is now a finesse pitcher who needs to get by on command and poise, a dubious proposition indeed. The problem isn't just his well documented command problems, but also the fact that he's always been pretty much a strict fastball-slider pitcher, and to be effective with that kind of repertoire as a right-handed pitcher you need some gas.
There have been reports that the decline in velocity is related to some mechanical tweaks that he and St. Claire are making, but to believe that you have to ignore the long-term trend. I do give Cabrera credit that in fact his command has been a better--he's walked just four of 51 batters faced, a rate that is far better than anything he's done before, and he's managed a fielding independent ERA of 4.74, though his advanced billing as an innings-eater hasn't come to fruition, as he's gone just 11 innings total in his two starts. The already overworked Nationals bullpen could really use 7 innings or more from someone. Seems very unlikely that it'll be Cabrera though.
If Cabrera is successful today, he'll need strong fielding behind him, and in addition to everything else that's gone wrong, the Nationals' fielding problems have continued to spread. When Adam Dunn let a catchable ball fall at his feet in the first inning yesterday, you at least know that's what you paid for. When all of a sudden slick-fielding Alberto Gonzalez is air-mailing throws to first and Nick Johnson is dropping infield flies, you start to think there's something in the water. Zimmerman, Gonzalez, Hernandez, and Johnson have to do their part.
Still, the bottom line is that any reasonably informed review of Cabrera's peripherals would tell you that he's in steep decline, and the only real mystery here is why the Nationals front office seems unable to figure it out. I mean, it's not like we didn't have other options available.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 8-2
Manny likes to plug in new call-ups right away, so that means we'll probably see Justin Maxwell in centerfield today, the second game in a row in which despite the outfield logjam he finds PT for a guy who isn't even in the top 7 in the organizational depth chart.
Depressing as it sounds, I think Cabrera's actually over-performed and is due for some regression. The best thing he has going for him is that the Marlins are such a righty-heavy lineup. John Baker's a tough out, Emmylou Bonifacio's better left-handed, and we know all too well what a hot start Jeremy Hermida's off to. After those guys, the only bench options are Royals cast-off Ross Gload and Alfredo Amezega, who, despite his remarkable success against the Nationals, is not actually good.
Anyway, despite all that, it just seems like it's time for things to even out a bit. The Fish aren't a 10-1 team. The Nationals are bad, but even a team of totally replacement-level grunts would manage a winning percentage over .100. (Though that replacement-level grunt squad would have better pitching than the Scats, so there's that...). Anyway, I'm going to go out on a limb and for the second time this year predict a Nationals win, 6-4.
Check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on the Florida hitters and bullpen. Here's my look at the Marlins' starter for the series finale and prediction.
On the Mound
Chris Volstad: The 6'7" 22-year-old is off to an excellent start. He faced the Nationals in the season-opening series and allowed 2 runs in the first inning. Since then, he's allowed 1 run in 11 innings against the Scats and the Braves and is coming in with a 1.50 ERA.
As he did last year, however, he's benefited from some really good luck. He's stranded 83.3% of runners (70% is typical), and profited from a .149 BABIP (groundball pitchers like Volstad usually are in the .310-.320 range).
Despite his size, he's known as a finesse/command guy, but so far this year he's putting up numbers more like the power pitcher you'd expect him to be. He's struck out 11 of the 45 batters he's faced, a dominating 24.4%, and all his pitches are up about one mph, with the fastball now sitting at 91.6 on average, occasionally hitting 93-94.
He's a fastball, curveball, change-up groundball pitcher. Like fellow groundballer Josh Johnson yesterday, he'll be vulnerable to an unusually high number of seeing-eye grounders, as Cantu, Uggla, Ramirez, and Bonfacio are all below par fielders. He's shown a slight reverse platoon split in the very small sample size of 410 batters faced going back to last year.
Daniel Cabrera: I haven't been previewing Nationals pitchers, but I feel I've neglected the Cabrera situation, so here's a bonus "on the mound" special.
Like Scott Olsen, Cabrera has seen his velocity and strikeout rates plummet over the last three seasons. Three years ago, he was at 94.3 mph on his fastball while K-ing 9.55 per 9. Since then both of those numbers have dropped steadily and in his first two starts of the year he's down to 90.6 and 4.91 per 9. What that means, is that D-Cab is now a finesse pitcher who needs to get by on command and poise, a dubious proposition indeed. The problem isn't just his well documented command problems, but also the fact that he's always been pretty much a strict fastball-slider pitcher, and to be effective with that kind of repertoire as a right-handed pitcher you need some gas.
There have been reports that the decline in velocity is related to some mechanical tweaks that he and St. Claire are making, but to believe that you have to ignore the long-term trend. I do give Cabrera credit that in fact his command has been a better--he's walked just four of 51 batters faced, a rate that is far better than anything he's done before, and he's managed a fielding independent ERA of 4.74, though his advanced billing as an innings-eater hasn't come to fruition, as he's gone just 11 innings total in his two starts. The already overworked Nationals bullpen could really use 7 innings or more from someone. Seems very unlikely that it'll be Cabrera though.
If Cabrera is successful today, he'll need strong fielding behind him, and in addition to everything else that's gone wrong, the Nationals' fielding problems have continued to spread. When Adam Dunn let a catchable ball fall at his feet in the first inning yesterday, you at least know that's what you paid for. When all of a sudden slick-fielding Alberto Gonzalez is air-mailing throws to first and Nick Johnson is dropping infield flies, you start to think there's something in the water. Zimmerman, Gonzalez, Hernandez, and Johnson have to do their part.
Still, the bottom line is that any reasonably informed review of Cabrera's peripherals would tell you that he's in steep decline, and the only real mystery here is why the Nationals front office seems unable to figure it out. I mean, it's not like we didn't have other options available.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 8-2
Manny likes to plug in new call-ups right away, so that means we'll probably see Justin Maxwell in centerfield today, the second game in a row in which despite the outfield logjam he finds PT for a guy who isn't even in the top 7 in the organizational depth chart.
Depressing as it sounds, I think Cabrera's actually over-performed and is due for some regression. The best thing he has going for him is that the Marlins are such a righty-heavy lineup. John Baker's a tough out, Emmylou Bonifacio's better left-handed, and we know all too well what a hot start Jeremy Hermida's off to. After those guys, the only bench options are Royals cast-off Ross Gload and Alfredo Amezega, who, despite his remarkable success against the Nationals, is not actually good.
Anyway, despite all that, it just seems like it's time for things to even out a bit. The Fish aren't a 10-1 team. The Nationals are bad, but even a team of totally replacement-level grunts would manage a winning percentage over .100. (Though that replacement-level grunt squad would have better pitching than the Scats, so there's that...). Anyway, I'm going to go out on a limb and for the second time this year predict a Nationals win, 6-4.
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