Manny Acta not only landed the Cleveland Indians job today--he had his pick of jobs between Cleveland and the Houston Astros.
It should come as no surprise that Manny didn't have a hard time getting another shot to manage. Outside of DC, Manny's been compared to Terry Francona for years--a very talented young manager who never had a chance in his first job because his team was so dreadfully overmatched in terms of talent night-in and night-out.
But it's impressive that Manny's services were not only sought after, but apparently sparked an full-fledged bidding war. The Indians signed him for three years with a team option for a fourth, beating out the Astros' two-year offer.
Cleveland was clearly the more desirable option in terms of organizational strength and talent. The Indians really cratered in 2009, but with a core of Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, and Shin-Soo Choo, plus up-and-coming blue-chippers Carlos Santana and Matt LaPorta, Manny has far, far more to work with in Cleveland than he ever did in DC.
The pitching staff is a mess, after shipping off CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee in consecutive seasons and watching Fausto Carmona fall apart totally. I worry that they massively overrated Carlos Carrasco in the Cliff Lee trade. But in the soft AL Central, it's not hard to imagine Cleveland jumping up and making a run as soon as next season.
Regardless, in terms of contract and talent, Manny has a much better job now than the one he was fired from. It's a very good bet that he'll have a better record than whoever takes over the Nationals in 2010.
It kinda makes you think that with Manny's contract coming up at the end of this year, he just might have quit if he hadn't been fired. He obviously had no shortage of options.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Monday, October 19, 2009
Right Track / Wrong Track Poll Results... And a New Poll!
Fan confidence slipped just a very little bit this month from the post-Strasburg signing glee of August and September. It seems we're set up for an off-season of hope and dreams. Till they actually start to play again, why not?
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
New Podcast at "Natmosphere in your Ear"
Brian and I just finished discussing the recent changes in the Nationals front office. You can get the download here: http://natmosphere.mypodcast.com/2009/10/Natmosphere_in_your_Ear_October_14_2009-248048.html
News has been coming so fast that the discussion of the international scouting situation is already out of date with the announcement mentioned in the last post.
But we also discuss Dana Brown's and John Stearns's departures, Roy Clark's hiring, Kris Kline's promotion, the future of Bob Boone.
Also, for folks who wish to subscribe at I-Tunes, there seems to be a problem with that link on mypodcast.com. No worries, you can still subscribe.
Here's what you do. In I-Tunes, click on Advanced, then Subscribe to Podcast. Paste this address into the box: http://natmosphere.mypodcast.com/rss.xml and click OK. Voila. Natmosphere in your Ear will download weekly.
News has been coming so fast that the discussion of the international scouting situation is already out of date with the announcement mentioned in the last post.
But we also discuss Dana Brown's and John Stearns's departures, Roy Clark's hiring, Kris Kline's promotion, the future of Bob Boone.
Also, for folks who wish to subscribe at I-Tunes, there seems to be a problem with that link on mypodcast.com. No worries, you can still subscribe.
Here's what you do. In I-Tunes, click on Advanced, then Subscribe to Podcast. Paste this address into the box: http://natmosphere.mypodcast.com/rss.xml and click OK. Voila. Natmosphere in your Ear will download weekly.
Nationals Hire International Scouting Director
Filling a hole that's existed in the Nationals front office since basically forever, the Nationals have hired Red Sox Latin American Coordinator Johnny DiPuglia as their International Scouting Director. So reports Melissa Segura at Sports Illustrated.
The Nationals have been pretty much completely absent from the international talent market forever, and no team's been more aggressive and successful than the Red Sox. DiPuglia has a great pedigree and an impressive track record of signings:
This is a very good step in the right direction. Hopefully DiPuglia will have budget to hire a robust staff of scouts to cover the enormous pool of talent that exists outside U.S. borders.
The Nationals have been pretty much completely absent from the international talent market forever, and no team's been more aggressive and successful than the Red Sox. DiPuglia has a great pedigree and an impressive track record of signings:
DiPuglia, of Dominican descent, was raised in Miami and started his professional baseball career in 1990 as an area scout for the St. Louis Cardinals. He moved on to the San Francisco Giants as the assistant international director in 1998. During his tenure with the Red Sox, he was instrumental in the team's signing of All-Star shortstop Hanley Ramirez. He also can count Cardinals outfielder Rick Ankiel, Tigers second baseman Placido Polanco, Marlins hurler Anibal Sanchez (he of a no-hitter in 2006), Rockies pitcher Jorge De La Rosa, and former longtime utilityman Eli Marerro among his 19 signees who have made it to the majors.When the Lerners first bought the team, there was a lot of talk about making this team the Washington InterNationals. But so far those promises have been totally unfulfilled.
This is a very good step in the right direction. Hopefully DiPuglia will have budget to hire a robust staff of scouts to cover the enormous pool of talent that exists outside U.S. borders.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Just Say No, Manny
Is Manny Acta about to be hired by the only team in baseball that's been run almost as badly as the Nationals over the last few years. OK, it's not the Royals. Or the Pirates. It's the Astros.
The Astros are bad. They won just 74 games this year, and in fact they were lucky. By run differential, they were a 68-win team.
The Astros are old. Six of their starting eight position players in 2009 were 33 or older. Five of their top six starting pitchers by games started this year were 30 or older.
The Astros minor league system is a wreck. They were rated the absolute worst in baseball going into 2009 by Baseball America, and their comments on the ranking didn't offer much hope for the future either:
Drafting catcher Jason Castro with the #10 overall pick in 2008 ahead of higher upside guys like Justin Smoak and Brett Wallace was rightly questioned at the time, but Castro played well enough this year to quiet some of that criticism for a while at least.
Bottom line, whoever takes this job is doomed. Just like Manny was doomed here in DC. I know managerial jobs don't come along very often, but, really Manny, you don't want this job.
The Astros are bad. They won just 74 games this year, and in fact they were lucky. By run differential, they were a 68-win team.
The Astros are old. Six of their starting eight position players in 2009 were 33 or older. Five of their top six starting pitchers by games started this year were 30 or older.
The Astros minor league system is a wreck. They were rated the absolute worst in baseball going into 2009 by Baseball America, and their comments on the ranking didn't offer much hope for the future either:
State of the System: The Astros come off an 86-win season, but leaner times may be ahead for the franchise, which has an older lineup and is No. 30 on our talent rankings by a fairly wide margin. The organization has drafted cheaply and poorly for most of the last four years, culminating with an '07 class that already ranks as one of the worst in draft history. Houston's historic forays into Venezuela are mostly a thing of the past as well; the organization that once dominated talent acquisition in that country now doesn't even have an academy there and makes little impact internationally anymore.And they have one of the few GMs left who might have competed with Jim Bowden for the title "Worst GM in MLB," Ed Wade. The last couple years of roster management have been just awful down in Houston. When he wasn't getting choked by one of his own players (yes, Chacon is crazy, but who signed him?), he committed these general managerial sins:
- Signed Kaz Matsui for 3 years, $16.5 million.
- Signed--and actually gave starts to--Brian Moehler ($2.3m), Mike Hampton ($2m), Shawn Chacon ($2m), Jack Cassel ($400k), Russ Ortiz (minor league contract), and my favorite, Runelvys Hernandez (minor league contract).
- Picked up the option year on Brian Moehler for another $3 million.
- Passed on re-signing Randy Wolf, who went to the Dodgers for $5m.
- Traded #8 prospect Drew Sutton for Jeff Keppinger.
- Signed old, terrible Geoff Blum to be his starting third baseman for one year and $1.2 million.
- Picked up the $1.2 million club option for older, terribler Blum to be his starting third baseman again.
- Signed the decaying corpse of Brad Ausmus for $2 million to be his starting catcher in 2008.
- Signed the decaying corpse of Pudge Rodriguez for $1.5 million to be his starting catcher in 2009.
- Signed Chris Coste. To start. At first base. (For just a couple weeks while Lance Berkman was hurt, but still.)
- Waited almost two whole years to fire Cecil Cooper.
- Has shown a troubling interest in ex-Nationals, including Ray King, Aaron Boone, and Micah Bowie.
Drafting catcher Jason Castro with the #10 overall pick in 2008 ahead of higher upside guys like Justin Smoak and Brett Wallace was rightly questioned at the time, but Castro played well enough this year to quiet some of that criticism for a while at least.
Bottom line, whoever takes this job is doomed. Just like Manny was doomed here in DC. I know managerial jobs don't come along very often, but, really Manny, you don't want this job.
Friday, October 9, 2009
New Podcast Up at "Natmoshere in your Ear"
This week's edition of Natmosphere in your Ear is up. Brian from Nationals Farm Authority and I discuss the 2009 season in review and even find some silver linings.
As always, you can subscribe to the podcast via I-Tunes (or whatever podcatcher you use) from the Natmosphere.MyPodcast.com page.
As always, you can subscribe to the podcast via I-Tunes (or whatever podcatcher you use) from the Natmosphere.MyPodcast.com page.
Non-Tender this Meat
Major league players with more than three but fewer than six years of service time are eligible for salary arbitration. The quick skinny is that arbitration-eligible guys generally get less than free agents, but a lot more than guys in their first three years. And you basically never take a pay cut in arb.
The Nationals have eight players who are arbitration-eligible: Jason Bergmann, Sean Burnett, Logan Kensing, Wil Nieves, Mike MacDougal, Scott Olsen, Pete Orr, and Josh Willingham.
Other than Josh Willingham and Sean Burnett, they should non-tender all of them.
Guys like Bergmann and Kensing would all probably get around $750k to $1 million. If Rizzo really wants to bring back Kensing on a minor league deal, fine. But that's it. Bergmann could certainly provide $1 million in value, but not the way he's being used. If no one else is interested, then they could bring him back for a little more than he's getting now.
But the team would probably be doing Bergmann a favor by making him a free agent. He could throw 100 scoreless innings to start the season, and he'd never get a shot at starting here. If he went to San Diego, he could be next year's Kevin Correia. Seattle's outfield defense would do him a world of good. Kansas City, Oakland, or Cleveland might be interested. No one's going to sign him to start on opening day 2010, but he should be in an organization that hasn't decided he can't ever start ever.
Tendering MacDougal a contract would be a disaster. He made $2.65 million in 2009 (paid by the White Sox) and has a $3.75 million club option with a $365k buyout for 2010. So he stands to make over $3 million next year in arbitration. He's not worth half that. Yeah, he saved a lot of games, but the guy can't find the strikezone with both hands. We're talking about a guy with 34 strikeouts and 38 unintentional walks in 54.1 innings. He's got a giant blinking light on his head that says "stay away." Over his last 12 appearances, he had a 9.28 ERA. That, my friends, is the real Mac. If they want to bring him back on a bargain-basement deal (ideally a minor league deal) as an "in case of emergency pull glass" option for the set-up man, fine. But that's it.
Tendering Scott Olsen a contract would be no better. He also stands to get around $3 million in arb, and chances are his days as a useful major league starter are over. His velocity this year was 88.0, basically the same as the 87.8 last year, and light years from the 90.9 he averaged in his one good season. Again, if you want to pay him the minimum or sign him to a minor league deal, fine. But that's all.
If someone wants to argue that Pete Orr should get $750k or more, feel free. Ditto Wil Nieves. These are totally fungible, not even replacement level guys. And they aren't even young. I'd be shocked if the team doesn't non-tender these guys.
Sean Burnett is actually a debatable case as well. I would go ahead and tender him a contract, mainly because the team's relief pitching is so dire. But really he's barely more than a LOOGY. He had a 3.12 ERA with a silly .201 BABIP. Once that regresses, his 4.37 walks per 9 will turn into a lot of runs. He can cut that number, but still he's not the kind of guy you really want to go to arb with unless you really have to. Sadly, the Nationals really have to.
The Nationals have eight players who are arbitration-eligible: Jason Bergmann, Sean Burnett, Logan Kensing, Wil Nieves, Mike MacDougal, Scott Olsen, Pete Orr, and Josh Willingham.
Other than Josh Willingham and Sean Burnett, they should non-tender all of them.
Guys like Bergmann and Kensing would all probably get around $750k to $1 million. If Rizzo really wants to bring back Kensing on a minor league deal, fine. But that's it. Bergmann could certainly provide $1 million in value, but not the way he's being used. If no one else is interested, then they could bring him back for a little more than he's getting now.
But the team would probably be doing Bergmann a favor by making him a free agent. He could throw 100 scoreless innings to start the season, and he'd never get a shot at starting here. If he went to San Diego, he could be next year's Kevin Correia. Seattle's outfield defense would do him a world of good. Kansas City, Oakland, or Cleveland might be interested. No one's going to sign him to start on opening day 2010, but he should be in an organization that hasn't decided he can't ever start ever.
Tendering MacDougal a contract would be a disaster. He made $2.65 million in 2009 (paid by the White Sox) and has a $3.75 million club option with a $365k buyout for 2010. So he stands to make over $3 million next year in arbitration. He's not worth half that. Yeah, he saved a lot of games, but the guy can't find the strikezone with both hands. We're talking about a guy with 34 strikeouts and 38 unintentional walks in 54.1 innings. He's got a giant blinking light on his head that says "stay away." Over his last 12 appearances, he had a 9.28 ERA. That, my friends, is the real Mac. If they want to bring him back on a bargain-basement deal (ideally a minor league deal) as an "in case of emergency pull glass" option for the set-up man, fine. But that's it.
Tendering Scott Olsen a contract would be no better. He also stands to get around $3 million in arb, and chances are his days as a useful major league starter are over. His velocity this year was 88.0, basically the same as the 87.8 last year, and light years from the 90.9 he averaged in his one good season. Again, if you want to pay him the minimum or sign him to a minor league deal, fine. But that's all.
If someone wants to argue that Pete Orr should get $750k or more, feel free. Ditto Wil Nieves. These are totally fungible, not even replacement level guys. And they aren't even young. I'd be shocked if the team doesn't non-tender these guys.
Sean Burnett is actually a debatable case as well. I would go ahead and tender him a contract, mainly because the team's relief pitching is so dire. But really he's barely more than a LOOGY. He had a 3.12 ERA with a silly .201 BABIP. Once that regresses, his 4.37 walks per 9 will turn into a lot of runs. He can cut that number, but still he's not the kind of guy you really want to go to arb with unless you really have to. Sadly, the Nationals really have to.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
J.J. Hardy: Make it Happen, Rizzo
Yesterday, Brewers General Manager Doug Melvin said this about 2007 All-Star shortstop J.J. Hardy:
No doubt, he had a really down year in 2009. In large part, that was a matter of bad luck as his BABIP fell to .264, well below his career .280 rate (including 2009) and way below the 2009 NL average of .299.
He also saw his ISO power fall to .128, compared to his career rate of .166. That's a big drop in raw power. And his strikeout rate jumped to 20.5%, compared to 15.8% career. If a 26-year-old's power and contact rates are both slipping, that means there's a real problem with the hitter's approach (or an injury). His walk rate actually rose to 9.4% from 8.3%, but regardless, he didn't hit very well this year.
On the other hand, in his worst year, he was still a 1.4 wins above replacement player (Guzman's '09 WAR was 0.9 for comparison). His minor league stint was an act of brazen service time manipulation by the Brewers, but whoever acquires him will be the beneficiary, as he spent just enough time in Indianapolis to push back his eligibility for free agency until after the 2011 season.
He had little nagging back and shoulder issues that couldn't have helped. And he's going into his age 27 season, historically the age when a player peaks. In '07 and '08, he was worth 4.5 and 4.9 wins above replacement, a good bit better than anyone on the Nationals not named Zimmerman.
At worst, he'll give Rizzo the ace fielder he's looking for. And surely he's a better option than Jack Wilson or Adam Everett.
So what are the Brewers looking for? Pitching, of course. They have at least two big holes in their rotation, and they can't afford to go after the John Lackeys or Randy Wolfs of this off-season's free agent market.
The Nationals have one guy who could be a good fit for the Brewers, both in terms of need and means: John Lannan. I'm going to get a reputation for hating Lannan, and I don't, but if you could trade straight-up a guy who's been worth 2.8 WAR over the last two seasons for a guy who's been worth 10.8 over the last three, you do it. Forget whether you think Lannan's been pitching over his head or not.
That might not be enough, but if this deal could be made it would be the best buy-low, sell-high deal the Nationals ever made.
Beyond that, the Brewers could use a center fielder, because Mike Cameron is a free agent. Second base is an issue, since Felipe Lopez is a free agent, and do you really go with Rickie Weeks again? They also need a catcher--Jason Kendall's a free agent, and he stinks anyway.
J.J. Hardy for Jesus Flores? Yes. J.J. Hardy for Cristian Guzman? Hell, yes, although Guzman's price isn't right, and no team is likely to trade for him without ever even seeing him play second base. Maybe Flores and Justin Maxwell? Or Flores and Roger Bernadina or Ian Desmond or Danny Espinosa? All those would be good deals for the Nationals.
We also have a plethora of C-level pitching prospects we could offer: Brad Meyers, Aaron Thompson, Ross Detwiler, Craig Stammen, Marco Estrada... All these guys should be on the table and of at least some interest to the Brewers.
Finally, we could take a bad contract off their hands, and the $12.5 million they owe Jeff Suppan for 2010 is pretty bad. I don't care if Suppan never even shows up in DC. If that's the price we pay to get Hardy, that's the kind of deal we should be happy to make, leveraging our big market resources to pluck value from small market teams. And heck, since it appears we're in the market for a crappy veteran anyway, Suppan's no worse than, oh, Livan Hernandez.
Make it happen, Rizzo.
Asked if there was any way to keep both rookie shortstop Alcides Escobar and former starter J.J. Hardy on the roster, Melvin said, "That would be very difficult."Hardy in 2007 and 2008 was one of the top five shortstops in all of baseball. His fielding is excellent, and with 50 homers in two years, he showed exceptional power for a middle infielder.
In other words, bye-bye Hardy. Melvin told me that Hardy's trade value did diminish somewhat with his poor season but added, "There are still teams looking for a shortstop. He's a good player who just had a bad year. J.J. will bounce back."
No doubt, he had a really down year in 2009. In large part, that was a matter of bad luck as his BABIP fell to .264, well below his career .280 rate (including 2009) and way below the 2009 NL average of .299.
He also saw his ISO power fall to .128, compared to his career rate of .166. That's a big drop in raw power. And his strikeout rate jumped to 20.5%, compared to 15.8% career. If a 26-year-old's power and contact rates are both slipping, that means there's a real problem with the hitter's approach (or an injury). His walk rate actually rose to 9.4% from 8.3%, but regardless, he didn't hit very well this year.
On the other hand, in his worst year, he was still a 1.4 wins above replacement player (Guzman's '09 WAR was 0.9 for comparison). His minor league stint was an act of brazen service time manipulation by the Brewers, but whoever acquires him will be the beneficiary, as he spent just enough time in Indianapolis to push back his eligibility for free agency until after the 2011 season.
He had little nagging back and shoulder issues that couldn't have helped. And he's going into his age 27 season, historically the age when a player peaks. In '07 and '08, he was worth 4.5 and 4.9 wins above replacement, a good bit better than anyone on the Nationals not named Zimmerman.
At worst, he'll give Rizzo the ace fielder he's looking for. And surely he's a better option than Jack Wilson or Adam Everett.
So what are the Brewers looking for? Pitching, of course. They have at least two big holes in their rotation, and they can't afford to go after the John Lackeys or Randy Wolfs of this off-season's free agent market.
The Nationals have one guy who could be a good fit for the Brewers, both in terms of need and means: John Lannan. I'm going to get a reputation for hating Lannan, and I don't, but if you could trade straight-up a guy who's been worth 2.8 WAR over the last two seasons for a guy who's been worth 10.8 over the last three, you do it. Forget whether you think Lannan's been pitching over his head or not.
That might not be enough, but if this deal could be made it would be the best buy-low, sell-high deal the Nationals ever made.
Beyond that, the Brewers could use a center fielder, because Mike Cameron is a free agent. Second base is an issue, since Felipe Lopez is a free agent, and do you really go with Rickie Weeks again? They also need a catcher--Jason Kendall's a free agent, and he stinks anyway.
J.J. Hardy for Jesus Flores? Yes. J.J. Hardy for Cristian Guzman? Hell, yes, although Guzman's price isn't right, and no team is likely to trade for him without ever even seeing him play second base. Maybe Flores and Justin Maxwell? Or Flores and Roger Bernadina or Ian Desmond or Danny Espinosa? All those would be good deals for the Nationals.
We also have a plethora of C-level pitching prospects we could offer: Brad Meyers, Aaron Thompson, Ross Detwiler, Craig Stammen, Marco Estrada... All these guys should be on the table and of at least some interest to the Brewers.
Finally, we could take a bad contract off their hands, and the $12.5 million they owe Jeff Suppan for 2010 is pretty bad. I don't care if Suppan never even shows up in DC. If that's the price we pay to get Hardy, that's the kind of deal we should be happy to make, leveraging our big market resources to pluck value from small market teams. And heck, since it appears we're in the market for a crappy veteran anyway, Suppan's no worse than, oh, Livan Hernandez.
Make it happen, Rizzo.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
More Bad Injury News
NFA Brian broke the news that the top-prospect-not-named-Strasburg Derek Norris has broken his left hamate bone. Brian also gives the obligatory Will Carroll breakdown on the injury.
Wrist injuries are terrible for hitters (and can't make catching any easier either), and a hamate can take a long time to heal. Long-term, there should be no ill effects, but it'll be at least a year of slowed development. For an almost-21 catching prospect, it's a bad injury. Those of us hoping for a Norris promotion in 2011 or even a little audition in late 2010 will have to wait.
Wrist injuries are terrible for hitters (and can't make catching any easier either), and a hamate can take a long time to heal. Long-term, there should be no ill effects, but it'll be at least a year of slowed development. For an almost-21 catching prospect, it's a bad injury. Those of us hoping for a Norris promotion in 2011 or even a little audition in late 2010 will have to wait.
The Big Awards Post
Here are the second annual FJB awards for the best performances of the year by Washington Nationals.
My choice of Willingham might surprise some. Morgan has been getting mentioned as a team MVP, but I just can't give that to a guy who got here, immediately had the hottest hot streak of his career, and then get hurt. Dunn gets bonus points for moving around the diamond without complaint (wonder if Guzman noticed), but Willingham noses him out. Hammer slumped at the end, but for a couple months he was one of the best hitters in the National League, bar none. Also, he's become a below-average but not terrible fielder and handled right field as well as left. He and Dunn are close, but I'll give it to Willingham.
Compared to the rest of the league's best, Dunn's still a notch below the true elites. He ranked 20th in wOBA in MLB. He's great if he's your second-best hitter, but he's not good enough to carry a contender.
Say what you want about Dunn's glove and the fact that he belongs in the AL (I sure do), but that doesn't change the fact that he was hands down the Nationals' best hitter in 2009.
Zimmermann on the other hand was no less than the best pitcher to take the mound for Washington this year. His 23% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate are All-Star-worthy. He had some bad luck on balls in play (.339), strand rate (67.5%), and home run per flyball rate (12.2%) which made his ERA (4.63) look worse than his skill level. His injury could be devastating to the franchise, and could be nearly as consequential long-term as the Zimmerman and Strasburg signings.
MacDougal was basically terrible with 38 unintentional walks against 34 strikeouts. But, in the great tradition of Rocky Biddle, MacDougal reminds us that from time to time awful pitchers can rack up saves. He closed out 20 of 21, and lucky or not, we took it. I know it's the awards post, but still.
Jason Bergmann and Sean Burnett both deserve honorable mention for ranking #1 and #2 in all of baseball in percentage of inherited runners stranded, among pitchers that inherited at least 50 runners.
Overall, Detwiler didn't miss nearly enough bats, striking out just 12.6% of batters faced. And his 42.7% groundball rate is just ok. He still has a ways to go to be a solid big league starter, much less justify his draft spot. But a year ago at this time he was looking like a potential total bust, and barring injury that now seems very unlikely.
Desmond is a similar story. Formerly a highly touted prospect, his stock fell as he failed to advance as expected and showed little ability to command the strike zone. This year, he finally took the next step. His OBP jumped from .318 in AA in 2008 to .401 across AA and AAA his year. And when he got the call in September, he blew everyone away with a .561 slugging percentage. Still, during his September call-up, his 5.7% walk rate was the more important metric, and his inability to avoid bad errors in the field raises flags. Like Detwiler, Desmond hasn't yet shown he can be a Major League contributor, but he's no longer a candidate to wash out completely.
Morgan provided outstanding range and excellent instincts in his first chance to play every day in center. He could very well deserve his own gold glove next year.
Stammen was hard to pass over for most improved. His 47.1% groundball rate and 2.02 walks per 9 should make him a solid back-end starter for a long time to come, if he can stay healthy.
- MVP: Ryan Zimmerman (Runner Up: Josh Willingham)
My choice of Willingham might surprise some. Morgan has been getting mentioned as a team MVP, but I just can't give that to a guy who got here, immediately had the hottest hot streak of his career, and then get hurt. Dunn gets bonus points for moving around the diamond without complaint (wonder if Guzman noticed), but Willingham noses him out. Hammer slumped at the end, but for a couple months he was one of the best hitters in the National League, bar none. Also, he's become a below-average but not terrible fielder and handled right field as well as left. He and Dunn are close, but I'll give it to Willingham.
- Silver Slugger: Adam Dunn (Runner up: Ryan Zimmerman)
Compared to the rest of the league's best, Dunn's still a notch below the true elites. He ranked 20th in wOBA in MLB. He's great if he's your second-best hitter, but he's not good enough to carry a contender.
Say what you want about Dunn's glove and the fact that he belongs in the AL (I sure do), but that doesn't change the fact that he was hands down the Nationals' best hitter in 2009.
- Cy Young: John Lannan (Runner Up: Jordan Zimmermann)
Zimmermann on the other hand was no less than the best pitcher to take the mound for Washington this year. His 23% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate are All-Star-worthy. He had some bad luck on balls in play (.339), strand rate (67.5%), and home run per flyball rate (12.2%) which made his ERA (4.63) look worse than his skill level. His injury could be devastating to the franchise, and could be nearly as consequential long-term as the Zimmerman and Strasburg signings.
- Fireman of the Year: Tyler Clippard (Runner Up: Mike MacDougal)
MacDougal was basically terrible with 38 unintentional walks against 34 strikeouts. But, in the great tradition of Rocky Biddle, MacDougal reminds us that from time to time awful pitchers can rack up saves. He closed out 20 of 21, and lucky or not, we took it. I know it's the awards post, but still.
Jason Bergmann and Sean Burnett both deserve honorable mention for ranking #1 and #2 in all of baseball in percentage of inherited runners stranded, among pitchers that inherited at least 50 runners.
- Most Improved Player: Ross Detwiler (Runner Up: Ian Desmond)
Overall, Detwiler didn't miss nearly enough bats, striking out just 12.6% of batters faced. And his 42.7% groundball rate is just ok. He still has a ways to go to be a solid big league starter, much less justify his draft spot. But a year ago at this time he was looking like a potential total bust, and barring injury that now seems very unlikely.
Desmond is a similar story. Formerly a highly touted prospect, his stock fell as he failed to advance as expected and showed little ability to command the strike zone. This year, he finally took the next step. His OBP jumped from .318 in AA in 2008 to .401 across AA and AAA his year. And when he got the call in September, he blew everyone away with a .561 slugging percentage. Still, during his September call-up, his 5.7% walk rate was the more important metric, and his inability to avoid bad errors in the field raises flags. Like Detwiler, Desmond hasn't yet shown he can be a Major League contributor, but he's no longer a candidate to wash out completely.
- Gold Glove: Ryan Zimmerman (Runner Up: Nyjer Morgan)
Morgan provided outstanding range and excellent instincts in his first chance to play every day in center. He could very well deserve his own gold glove next year.
- Rookie of the Year: Jordan Zimmermann (Runner Up: Craig Stammen)
Stammen was hard to pass over for most improved. His 47.1% groundball rate and 2.02 walks per 9 should make him a solid back-end starter for a long time to come, if he can stay healthy.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Revisiting the FJB 2009 Predictions
As everyone knows by now, I missed the mark on John Lannan over the last month of the season, but that's not the only thing I got wrong this year. Let's look back at my pre-season predictions and see how many other predictions I got wrong.
Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Lastings Milledge, Jason Bergmann, and Austin Kearns will be better in 2009 than they were in 2008.
Johnson and Zimmerman, check. I clearly missed on Milledge and Kearns. Bergmann's the hardest one to say. His ERA went down by half a run, but he threw fewer innings and was mainly used as a reliever. All things equal, a pitcher's ERA should improve by about a run moving from the rotation to the bullpen, so while he was in DC, he really he wasn't better. Then again, he had a 1.16 ERA in AAA, so maybe he just got unlucky on when he was pitching his best? Call that one a wash, and 50-50 overall on these guesses.
Cristian Guzman, John Lannan, Joe Beimel, Joel Hanrahan, Anderson Hernandez, Ronnie Belliard, and Scott Olsen will be worse.
I nailed all these other than Lannan, who had a bit better season.
Ryan Zimmerman will finally take the next step forward, finishing the season with a slash line over .280 / .350 / .480. But he will not make the all-star team.
He finished the year at .292 / .364 / .525. Good on me. But he made the All-Star Game, so another split.
Josh Bard will get more than one-third of the starts at catcher.
Check.
Nationals Park will emerge as a very slight hitters park as measured by park factor.
Bingo.
The Nationals will draw fewer than two million fans.
Yes.
Jason Bergmann will have a better ERA than any of the Nationals' top five starters by games started.
At 4.50, he beat everyone but Lannan, though J.D. Martin tied both Shairon Martis and Garrett Mock for fifth in games started and finished at 4.44. It's wrong, but it's close, and most people thought this was crazy talk at the time.
Mike Rizzo will find room for Alberto Gonzalez on the 25-man roster by the end of May at the latest.
Yes.
Cristian Guzman, Wily Mo Pena, Dmitri Young, and Ron Belliard will be former Nationals by the end of the season.
Three out of four ain't bad.
Austin Kearns will have a solid bounce-back season and find himself a starting job with another team by opening day 2010.
My wrongest prediction.
Adam Dunn's streak of 40-HR seasons will end.
Correct. Park factor does exist.
Jordan Zimmermann's ERA will be below the 2008 starting pitcher NL average of 4.40.
He finished at 4.63, but he had a 3.77 ERA in his last five starts. I think he would have made it.
Despite recent additions, the bullpen will be in the bottom third in the NL by ERA.
Yes.
Nationals starting pitchers will throw the fewest innings of any team in the NL.
At 5.6, the Nationals were bad, but Milwaukee, San Diego, and Houston were all worse.
Scott Olsen will not finish the year in the Nationals rotation.
Check.
The Nationals' top five starting pitchers by IP as a starter will include at least one pitcher not currently with the organization.
For all the turnover, this didn't happen. I figured they would fill in a Livan Hernandez-type sooner, but credit J.D. Martin, Ross Detwiler, and Craig Stammen for making that not necessary.
Strasburg will be the pick, and he will sign.
Check.
Aaron Crow will get the $4.4 million he wanted last year.
Well, yes and no. They negotiated a deal that lets Crow claim he did this. They're using fuzzy math, but it's close enough to say I was part right.
Shawn Hill will finish the season with more win shares than the Nationals' fifth starter.
Win shares isn't available yet, but Livan Hernandez and Ross Detwiler's good September will make this not true.
Nick Johnson will get 500 at bats and finish the season with an OPS+ over 140.
Wrong on both counts.
Mike Rizzo will lose the "acting" and be named the new Nationals GM.
Check.
Manny Acta will get another year.
Wrong.
NL playoff teams: Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, D'Backs.
Ouch.
AL playoff teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels.
Go Tigers!
The Dodgers will beat the Yankees in the Series.
We'll see.
The Nationals' record will be 74-88, their fourth last place finish in five years.
At the time, I thought I was being pessimistic.
Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Lastings Milledge, Jason Bergmann, and Austin Kearns will be better in 2009 than they were in 2008.
Johnson and Zimmerman, check. I clearly missed on Milledge and Kearns. Bergmann's the hardest one to say. His ERA went down by half a run, but he threw fewer innings and was mainly used as a reliever. All things equal, a pitcher's ERA should improve by about a run moving from the rotation to the bullpen, so while he was in DC, he really he wasn't better. Then again, he had a 1.16 ERA in AAA, so maybe he just got unlucky on when he was pitching his best? Call that one a wash, and 50-50 overall on these guesses.
Cristian Guzman, John Lannan, Joe Beimel, Joel Hanrahan, Anderson Hernandez, Ronnie Belliard, and Scott Olsen will be worse.
I nailed all these other than Lannan, who had a bit better season.
Ryan Zimmerman will finally take the next step forward, finishing the season with a slash line over .280 / .350 / .480. But he will not make the all-star team.
He finished the year at .292 / .364 / .525. Good on me. But he made the All-Star Game, so another split.
Josh Bard will get more than one-third of the starts at catcher.
Check.
Nationals Park will emerge as a very slight hitters park as measured by park factor.
Bingo.
The Nationals will draw fewer than two million fans.
Yes.
Jason Bergmann will have a better ERA than any of the Nationals' top five starters by games started.
At 4.50, he beat everyone but Lannan, though J.D. Martin tied both Shairon Martis and Garrett Mock for fifth in games started and finished at 4.44. It's wrong, but it's close, and most people thought this was crazy talk at the time.
Mike Rizzo will find room for Alberto Gonzalez on the 25-man roster by the end of May at the latest.
Yes.
Cristian Guzman, Wily Mo Pena, Dmitri Young, and Ron Belliard will be former Nationals by the end of the season.
Three out of four ain't bad.
Austin Kearns will have a solid bounce-back season and find himself a starting job with another team by opening day 2010.
My wrongest prediction.
Adam Dunn's streak of 40-HR seasons will end.
Correct. Park factor does exist.
Jordan Zimmermann's ERA will be below the 2008 starting pitcher NL average of 4.40.
He finished at 4.63, but he had a 3.77 ERA in his last five starts. I think he would have made it.
Despite recent additions, the bullpen will be in the bottom third in the NL by ERA.
Yes.
Nationals starting pitchers will throw the fewest innings of any team in the NL.
At 5.6, the Nationals were bad, but Milwaukee, San Diego, and Houston were all worse.
Scott Olsen will not finish the year in the Nationals rotation.
Check.
The Nationals' top five starting pitchers by IP as a starter will include at least one pitcher not currently with the organization.
For all the turnover, this didn't happen. I figured they would fill in a Livan Hernandez-type sooner, but credit J.D. Martin, Ross Detwiler, and Craig Stammen for making that not necessary.
Strasburg will be the pick, and he will sign.
Check.
Aaron Crow will get the $4.4 million he wanted last year.
Well, yes and no. They negotiated a deal that lets Crow claim he did this. They're using fuzzy math, but it's close enough to say I was part right.
Shawn Hill will finish the season with more win shares than the Nationals' fifth starter.
Win shares isn't available yet, but Livan Hernandez and Ross Detwiler's good September will make this not true.
Nick Johnson will get 500 at bats and finish the season with an OPS+ over 140.
Wrong on both counts.
Mike Rizzo will lose the "acting" and be named the new Nationals GM.
Check.
Manny Acta will get another year.
Wrong.
NL playoff teams: Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, D'Backs.
Ouch.
AL playoff teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels.
Go Tigers!
The Dodgers will beat the Yankees in the Series.
We'll see.
The Nationals' record will be 74-88, their fourth last place finish in five years.
At the time, I thought I was being pessimistic.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Nationals' MVP: Most Valuable Pitches
Using linear weights, Dave Appelman has been tracking the run value of every pitch thrown in MLB this year. Over at Fangraphs, they've been divvying up the pitches by pitcher and pitch type to measure, for instance, how many runs Derek Lowe's sinker allowed this year, compared to the average pitch thrown by the average pitcher.
(Read this brief explanation if the paragraph above doesn't make sense to you.)
With a full season in the books, we can start to get a sense of what are toughest (and easiest) pitches to hit on the Nationals' staff. These data also allow us to start to identify pitches that perhaps should be thrown more or less often by certain pitchers.
Caution: there are definite sample-size issues here, and readers should put more stock in the numbers derived from pitchers who have thrown more innings and pitches that have been thrown more often. There aren't hard conclusions to be drawn here, but valuable tendencies worth discussion.
You can click here and noodle around with the data any way you want, but I filtered out only pitchers with 50 or more innings pitched (counting innings and results thrown for other teams) and only looked at pitches thrown 10% of the time or more.
First, the starters. These are the team's top five pitches measured by the number of runs allowed above average per 100 pitches thrown:
The second thing I notice is that if the fifth best pitch in the rotation is only a 0.61 value pitch, that's not good at all.
It's no shock to see Lannan's groundball-inducing change at the top of the list (though probably there are some fastballs miscategorized as change-ups in there).
But it's surprising to see guys like Mock and Detwiler with pitches that rank so high. Some of that is probably a matter of the league getting a first look at some young pitchers. It's also a reminder that Mock really does have some good stuff (if he can stop grooving his fastball, which is a -1.94 pitch thrown 60% of the time). Detwiler's big bender is a plus pitch, despite recent talk that it's not.
Zimmermann's has a 1.34 pitch value change, but he only threw it 6.4% of the time, and his 1.34, suggesting he should throw it more.
Craig Stammen, Livan Hernandez, Scott Olsen, J.D. Martin, and Martis didn't have any pitches that rated. No other starter had enough innings to qualify.
Next let's look at relievers:
Again, overal it's crazy how few real plus pitches the team has. Breaking it down at this level, you can see how far this staff has to go to be competitive with contenders.
(Read this brief explanation if the paragraph above doesn't make sense to you.)
With a full season in the books, we can start to get a sense of what are toughest (and easiest) pitches to hit on the Nationals' staff. These data also allow us to start to identify pitches that perhaps should be thrown more or less often by certain pitchers.
Caution: there are definite sample-size issues here, and readers should put more stock in the numbers derived from pitchers who have thrown more innings and pitches that have been thrown more often. There aren't hard conclusions to be drawn here, but valuable tendencies worth discussion.
You can click here and noodle around with the data any way you want, but I filtered out only pitchers with 50 or more innings pitched (counting innings and results thrown for other teams) and only looked at pitches thrown 10% of the time or more.
First, the starters. These are the team's top five pitches measured by the number of runs allowed above average per 100 pitches thrown:
- John Lannan's change-up: 2.04
- Garrett Mock's change-up: 1.88
- Ross Detwiler's curve: 1.73
- Mock's curve: 0.99 (actually thrown 9.8% of the time, but I'm rounding)
- Jordan Zimmermann's slider: 0.61
The second thing I notice is that if the fifth best pitch in the rotation is only a 0.61 value pitch, that's not good at all.
It's no shock to see Lannan's groundball-inducing change at the top of the list (though probably there are some fastballs miscategorized as change-ups in there).
But it's surprising to see guys like Mock and Detwiler with pitches that rank so high. Some of that is probably a matter of the league getting a first look at some young pitchers. It's also a reminder that Mock really does have some good stuff (if he can stop grooving his fastball, which is a -1.94 pitch thrown 60% of the time). Detwiler's big bender is a plus pitch, despite recent talk that it's not.
Zimmermann's has a 1.34 pitch value change, but he only threw it 6.4% of the time, and his 1.34, suggesting he should throw it more.
Craig Stammen, Livan Hernandez, Scott Olsen, J.D. Martin, and Martis didn't have any pitches that rated. No other starter had enough innings to qualify.
Next let's look at relievers:
- Joe Beimel's curveball: 2.67
- Jason Bergmann's curveball: 2.60
- Sean Burnett's fastball: 1.68
- Tyler Clippard's fastball: 1.51
- Mike MacDougal's fastball: 0.60
Again, overal it's crazy how few real plus pitches the team has. Breaking it down at this level, you can see how far this staff has to go to be competitive with contenders.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Now that's what I Call a Lame Fan Base
I turned on the game last night mid-way through the first inning, and, judging by the empty seats behind home plate, my first thought was, "wait, they can't be in DC. They were just here." Nope, they were in Atlanta. And the attendance was just that pitiful.
Tell you what. If the Nationals ever stick around long enough to be eliminated from the playoffs in the final days of the season, let's be there cheering loudly. Especially if one of the best young pitching prospect in the game is the starter.
It wasn't just late arrivals either. Check out the sparse crowd in the background after Brian McCann's 8th inning strikeout in a 1-1 game:
And this is the most enthusiastic shot that Fox Sports South could find after Garret Anderson's 2,500th career hit. The golf applause was pathetic. Yeah, he hasn't been a Brave that long, but an away crowd would do better than that.
As if the annoying tomahawk cheer wasn't bad enough, now we know they're all a bunch of quitters.
Tell you what. If the Nationals ever stick around long enough to be eliminated from the playoffs in the final days of the season, let's be there cheering loudly. Especially if one of the best young pitching prospect in the game is the starter.
It wasn't just late arrivals either. Check out the sparse crowd in the background after Brian McCann's 8th inning strikeout in a 1-1 game:
And this is the most enthusiastic shot that Fox Sports South could find after Garret Anderson's 2,500th career hit. The golf applause was pathetic. Yeah, he hasn't been a Brave that long, but an away crowd would do better than that.
As if the annoying tomahawk cheer wasn't bad enough, now we know they're all a bunch of quitters.
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