Guzman! Traded! Hoo-Ray!!!!!!

That's what Ladson says. If true, this is the best day to be a Nationals fan since the day JimBo resigned, no matter who they got. The Rangers' farm system is the best in baseball, so if they get anyone in their top 20, rejoice. If this is true, Rizzo is definitely earning some love around the Natmosphere.

Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos?

That's what Aaron Gleeman is saying is about to happen. If true, this is fantastic news.

Out Rate: a Simple New Upgrade on OBP

On-base percentage is an extremely valuable stat because it shows the percentage of the time that a hitter avoids making an out at the plate.

However, as Nationals fans in particular have learned with Nyjer Morgan, there are more ways to make an out than to strike out, ground out, or fly out. You can get picked off, caught stealing, thrown out trying to advance on a flyball, and more.

And especially for lead-off hitters, the most important thing they need to achieve is to avoid creating outs so that there are base-runners for the heart of the order. A lead-off man who reaches base and then gets picked off or caught stealing hasn't really contributed any more than if they had made an out in the first place.

So I created a stat that I call out rate. Out rate is the percentage of all plate appearances that end in the hitter creating an out, either at the plate or on the bases. The stat also counts the extra outs created by GDPs. Here's the formula: Out rate = (H+BB+HBP-CS-GDP-POCS-OOB)/PA.

Some explanation on unfamiliar stats here. POCS stands for pick-off caught stealing. In the dataset that Baseball Reference uses, runners are charged with both a CS and a PO if he is judged to have been making a motion towards the next base before getting picked off. But BRef also tracks those "double counted" events as POCS, so by subtracting that number, we're able eliminate the overlap.

OOB is "outs on base"--other events when a runner is called out on the bases. Example plays are out advancing on a flyball, trying to "take the extra base" on a hit, or attempting to advance on a wild pitch.

The reason I think this represents an upgrade over OBP is because it represents a more complete view of the key thing OBP measures--how often a hitter does or doesn't create an out.

Some will object that I'm mixing base-running and hitting, two very different skill sets. Indeed I am. But when measuring the offensive output of a player (as opposed to their skills), it doesn't really matter how they are creating outs. Outs are outs. Indeed, OBP itself is a stat that is derived by looking at the outcomes of some very different skill sets--mainly strike zone discipline and contact ability. To really drill down to measure one skill at a time, we should be looking at more granular data still, like contact rate, walk rate, swing rates, etc.

I like out rate because it presents the data in the way it's more intuitively useful--i.e., how often a player creates an out, as opposed to measuring a negative, how often a player avoids making an out.

Here are the league-wide numbers, updated through the end of the weekend: http://bit.ly/bDBjhs.

And here are the rates for all the players in MLB who have started at least 30 games this season in the lead-off spot, ranked from best to worst, with OBP also listed for reference.

Nationals fans--take note. The only lead-off hitters worse than are guy aren't lead-off hitters anymore. A real good way to kill an offense is to create a league-leading number of outs from the lead-off spot.

Name	Tm	OBP	Out %
Rickie Weeks	MIL	.377	.638
Rafael Furcal	LAD	.386	.645
Martin Prado	ATL	.363	.664
Kelly Johnson	ARI	.373	.673
Ichiro Suzuki	SEA	.369	.675
Austin Jackson	DET	.360	.676
Andres Torres	SFG	.367	.676
Angel Pagan	NYM	.362	.685
Felipe Lopez	STL	.338	.689
Marco Scutaro	BOS	.341	.696
David DeJesus	KCR	.331	.697
Chris Coghlan	FLA	.331	.697
Fred Lewis	TOR	.344	.698
Jimmy Rollins	PHI	.333	.700
Carlos Gonzalez	COL	.335	.700
Derek Jeter	NYY	.334	.703
Elvis Andrus	TEX	.357	.706
Shane Victorino	PHI	.314	.708
Denard Span	MIN	.341	.710
Scott Podsednik	KCR	.347	.710
Brandon Phillips	CIN	.342	.711
Erick Aybar	LAA	.339	.712
Jose Tabata	PIT	.335	.713
Corey Patterson	BAL	.328	.714
Jason Bartlett	TBR	.319	.715
Michael Bourn	HOU	.326	.718
Skip Schumaker	STL	.315	.723
Jose Reyes	NYM	.318	.724
Tony Gwynn	SDP	.330	.729
Ryan Theriot	CHC	.315	.730
Asdrubal Cabrera	CLE	.327	.735
Orlando Cabrera	CIN	.298	.738
Juan Pierre	CHW	.324	.739
Nyjer Morgan	WSN	.316	.743
Akinori Iwamura	PIT	.292	.751
Rajai Davis	OAK	.311	.752
Aaron Rowand	SFG	.288	.761

E-5 My Foot

Wanna know why Adam Dunn doesn't command a king's ransom on the trade market (or free agency)? Here's a play any MLB first baseman should make, and it cost the Nationals the game.

And yes I realize that it's always counted as a throwing error if the infielder bounces the throw, but that doesn't make it right.

Take Yes for an Answer, Rizzo

Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the White Sox have offered the Nationals anyone in their minor league system for Adam Dunn, and that Rizzo is holding out for Gordon Beckham or Carlos Quentin.

All caveats about unnamed sources apply. Always take this kind of report with a grain of salt--the sources more often than not are player agents or third-party GMs trying to advance their own interests, not share info.

But, then again, these reports aren't always bogus, and Kenny Williams certainly has a track record of bold strokes to win now. So, let's assume for the sake of argument that the report is true, and that Sox have offered anyone in their farm system, plus Daniel Hudson and Dayan Viciedo. Is there a deal here?

First, let's measure the value of what the Nationals would be giving up. Dunn is under contract for the rest of this season at a salary of $12 million. Using wOBA to measure offense and UZR to measure defense, Dunn has been worth 3.0 wins above replacement this year, putting him on pace for 5.1 WAR for the season. For context, 2-3 WAR is typically a starting caliber player, 5 WAR usually is an all-star, and 8 WAR is typically MVP.

This is a pretty solid measure of his value, although one caveat is that one of UZR's shortcomings is that it doesn't measure the value of runs prevented by first baseman catching errant throws, or "scoops." Dunn's height allows him to catch some balls other first basemen wouldn't get too, but he comes off the bag way way way too much and generally doesn't do his fellow infielders many favors. So we should shave maybe half a win off for that.

Also, you lose another half win for the positional adjustment from first base to DH (more players can "play" DH than first base).

Regardless, for a team in the hunt, adding even a 4.0 WAR guy like this with 70-ish games to go is a big addition. And since the White Sox are in a race that will go down to the wire and have used Mark Kotsay at DH more than any other player this year, and Juan Pierre is a giant sucking sound (ask your grandparents) in left, Dunn could easily be the guy who makes their year.

Now, on the Nationals' side, they are obviously going nowhere this year. They are 40-53, putting them on pace for 70 wins. And of course the trendline is not good, so they're probably on track to narrowly beat the pre-season over-under of 67 wins. If they trade Dunn, they probably replace him with a combination of Mike Morse, Willie Harris (and move Willingham to first), and Justin Maxwell. Those guys should provide replacement level value--not much more, but probably not less.

So trading Dunn might push them down to 67 or 66 wins. And any way you measure it--financially, emotionally, whatever--the difference between 69 wins and 67 wins is basically nil. Even y'all who sit and watch every game in the front row, I'm sorry, you don't really care about 2 more wins.

Then there's the potential opportunity cost of the draft picks that the Nationals would get if they kept him and offered him arbitration, assuming Dunn would decline and become a free agent. It's not totally clear to me that the Nationals would offer him arbitration or that he wouldn't accept it if offered. Still, you have to factor in that value.

Since Dunn's contract is up at the end of the season, that's really all that's at stake here. If the Nationals traded him to Chicago, Dunn would probably be back on the market this winter. That's because the Sox are pretty unlikely to give him a long-term contract given their $103 million payroll, Paul Konerko becoming a free agent, and long-term commitments to Jake Peavy, Alex Rios, and Mark Buehrle.

If the Nationals think Dunn is the key to their playoff hopes in 2011 or 2012 (it's gonna take way more than that--more on that another time), then they can pony up another $20 million or so and get him back.

Now, let's take a quick look at the White Sox prospects:

• Daniel Hudson: at age 23, he put up a 108:31 strikeout to walk ratio in 93.1 innings at AAA Charlotte. He was the #66 prospect on the Baseball America top 100 at the start of the year, and his stock has only gone up. If Hudson is offered, it's an absolute no-brainer, even if the Nationals have to eat salary and throw in Craig Stammen.
• Jared Mitchell: Mitchell, a super-fast centerfielder and lead-off man who showed advanced OBP skills as a 20-year-old in A-ball in 2009, was actually the top prospect in the White Sox system going into the year. Then, he tore a tendon in his ankle. Given the importance of the speed tool for Mitchell, you'd rather wait till he's fully rehabbed. Then again, you'll never get him for a 2-month rental of Adam Dunn after he's fully rehabbed. I'd rather have Hudson, but this is still an easy "yes," unless there's some bad medical news we don't know about.
• Tyler Flowers: Flowers is a major league-ready bat with good OBP skills and decent pop for a catcher. He came to the Sox in the Javier Vazquez trade. The report is that the White Sox offered "anyone in the minors," but it would be hard to trade the heir apparent to free agent A.J. Pierzynski. But, if they do, again, this is a trade the Nationals should do in a heartbeat. Derek Norris is taking a step back, who knows about Jesus Flores, and you can never have too many catchers.
  
• Dayan Viciedo: You've probably heard of him since he's playing third base now. The Nationals could bring him in and make him a first baseman, which is probably a better long-term fit anyway. I'm not much of a fan. He's a fat hacker with a four-year, $10 million major league deal. I wouldn't be super excited about this, though it's still a good value.
• Jordan Danks: Danks is also close to breaking through at the big league level. He hasn't set the world on fire at AAA, putting up a .243 / .314 / .377 line. But he's a plus defender, and the Sox say he's battled injuries this year and remain high on him. Again, this would be a fair value, but you'd choose others ahead of him.
  
• Brent Morel: BA's #3 prospect going into the year, he's a very good all-around player and a pretty safe bet as a quality major league regular. But, he's a third baseman. In a vacuum, it's a great value, but not for the Nationals.
  

Bring Back Chief

One-time Nationals all-star closer Chad Cordero has refused a minor league assignment with the Seattle Mariners and opted for free agency.

Cordero is working back from a torn labrum that can be almost entirely blamed on the Nationals training staff, who allowed him to pitch through shoulder tendinitis, then a torn lat, which finally led to the torn labrum, once considered a death sentence for pitchers.

Fans may also remember how former GM Jim Bowden unceremoniously announced on live sports talk radio that he would non-tender Cordero, before he'd informed the player or his agent.

Cordero is now 28 years old (that's less than a year older than J.D. Martin). He appeared in 9 games for the Mariners and allow 7 ER in 9.2 IP. That's not great, but he struck out 6, showing that he could compete. Earlier this season at AAA Tacoma, he struck out 22 in 19.2 innings and had a 4.12 ERA.

His velocity is still down, and he never had much to begin with. But his average fastball this season was right about 88 mph in his time in Seattle, not the absurdly slow 83 mph we saw back in 2008 when he last threw for the Nationals.

It seems clear that Cordero will pitch on any team that gives him a shot at pitching in the majors, and why shouldn't it be Washington? As long as he doesn't totally implode, he'll be a fan favorite. Pretty soon Tyler Clippard's arm will fall off, and would you really rather watch Joel Peralta?

Right Track / Wrong Track Poll Results... And a New Poll!

The right track number slipped a bit to 82%, but it's remained solidly over 80% ever since the team signed Stephen Strasburg. With the play on the field reverting to form, it'll be interesting to see how long that fan confidence holds up. The new poll is open, and you can vote in the top right of the page.

What to Do with Dunn

Give Adam Dunn credit--he's done everything possible over the past year and a half to increase his marketability as a trade chip. He's a truly marketable player who could help the Nationals and a lot of other teams too.

He's established a reputation as a not-totally-unacceptable defensive first baseman. His batting average has actually gone up at an age you expect to see declines (though that's probably a function of luck, given that his strikeout rate and BABIP are both up by significant margins). And, of course, he's continued to slug with the best of them. After last night's HR hat-trick, Dunn's at 20 for the year. His .294 ISO power is the best he's had since 2005, and he's at 2.6 wins above replacement, putting him on track for the second most valuable season of his career. The end might not be far away for Dunn and his old player skills, but it's certainly not now.

Still, with the Nationals looking like they'll struggle to get to 70 wins again this year and Dunn a free agent, the conventional wisdom is that he's the most obvious trade chip in baseball not named Cliff Lee.

You'll be shocked to learn that I disagree with Boz, who argues that the Nationals should not trade Dunn, end of story. Dunn is a valuable property, and the best option might be to re-sign him. But the free agent market for first basemen this winter is going to include Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Carlos Pena, Troy Glaus, Derrek Lee, and Paul Konerko. Guys like Adam LaRoche and Lance Berkman could be out there too, depending on what happens with options.

(Ed. note: it's been pointed out to me that I've been living under the misconception for a very long time that Adrian Gonzalez and Price Fielder were free agents after this year. Not sure if I lost track of what year it is or got confused about what year they're contracts are up. Possibly both.)

Dunn sat on the free agent market till February 11 in 2009. He could easily sit out there that long again, and if the Nationals want to bring him back they'd likely have a chance to do it whether they trade him now or not. And they'll likely get him for cheaper if they let him test the market than if they re-sign him now.

On the other hand, aging rentals just haven't brought back the kinds of blue-chip prospects that they used to in recent years. Good young players are highly prized because they're cheap, so it's harder than ever to flip current value for equal future value.

Long term, as a fan, the thing to root for isn't Dunn. It's Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder, who become free agents after 2011, along with Albert Pujols, if he isn't re-signed first. They're clearly the best players available. If they don't get either of those guys, then re-signing Dunn isn't the worst outcome imaginable, but to root to re-sign Dunn long-term when younger, better players are available seems like a strange thing to do.

In the near term, clearly you don't want them to give Dunn away for a package of C-level prospects. And that might be the best offer they get. Again, the market for Dunn never really materialized after 2008, and he's only two years older now.

So what they need is a team that thinks Dunn is the key to a championship and will make the Nationals an offer they can't refuse. That's why the best news of all might be the rumors that Kenny Williams might be interested. No GM in baseball is more aggressive about going for it every year--this it the guy who grabbed Alex Rios and a contract no one wanted and traded for Jake Peavy while he was on the DL in hopes that he'd come to Chicago, heal up, and make them a champion.

Ken Rosenthal says the Nationals are asking for Gordon Beckham or Carlos Quentin. Those would be great deals for Washington, but don't expect Chicago to go for either of those offers. Then again, the Sox have an impressive farm system of big league-ready prospects like Tyler Flowers, Dan Hudson, and Jordan Danks. If Williams is as hot on Dunn as the rumors say, a very favorable deal for the Nationals might happen.

So, in the meantime, here's what fans should do: 1. ignore Boz, 2. root for the White Sox to win, and 3. keep your powder dry and wait till things play out before deciding whether they booted this chance.

How Dmitri Is Spending the Lerners' $10 million

I guess now we know why he couldn't stop eating. Rim-shot! From the Bloomington Pantagraph:

Ex-Cardinal Dmitri Young jailed in Bloomington

BLOOMINGTON -- Former major league baseball player Dmitri Young was arrested by McLean County Sheriff's Department police early Monday on preliminary charges of possession of drug paraphernalia and possession of marijuana.

Young posted $100 bond and was released from McLean County Jail later Monday. Officials at the jail said he had no court date scheduled.

Young, 36, who listed a Fort Lauderale, Fla., address, played for the St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers and Washington Nationals.

Young, whose last major league action was with the Nationals in 2008, is currently a bench coach with the Oakland County Cruisers of the Frontier League.

All-Star Idiocy

The selection of mediocre ninth-inning reliever Matt Capps to the All-Star Game neatly sums up all the major reasons I get annoyed with the whole All-Star Game routine.

First, I really try not to care that much. After all, it's such an obviously flawed process that it seems kinda pointless to fret over each individual misjudgment. Besides, it's just an exhibition. Oh, wait, it's not just an exhibition anymore, is it? Since the All-Star Game determines home field in the World Series, now I'm compelled to care.

My next top pet peeve with ASG selections is that the second halves of seasons never, ever seem to matter. If a player has a hot first half, he's an all-star, even if everyone knows that he's performing way over his head and will crater any day. Then again, a player can be one of the very best players at his position, but if he happens to have a bad April, he's out.

Matt Capps is a classic example of this silliness. Sure, you could argue I suppose that his saves total justifies an All-Star Game appearance (I wouldn't, but we'll get to that in a minute). But does his mostly terrible recent track record prior to the last three months really count for nothing? Shouldn't the All-Star Game feature the best players in the game? And don't you have to look at more of a player's body of work to decide whether they really belong?

I also get annoyed with the way the All-Star Game overvalues closers. Each year it seems like the ASG rosters are filled with about 8 good starters, maybe 1-2 really dominant ace relievers, and then 3-4 really pretty lousy pitchers who happen to be used in the ninth inning by their managers.

The last thing that really annoys me about the All-Star Game is the requirement that every team gets one player selected to the team. If a team is so bad that no player is deserving, then none should go, period. It would be an embarrassment to the team, pushing them to do more to get better.

In the Nationals' case, they had at least one legitimate All-Star in Ryan Zimmerman. Josh Willingham's numbers for this season certainly stack up, but I would probably have passed on him based on, again, his broader recent body of work (ie, he sucked in the second half last season).

But since Capps chosen--and it's really hard to imagine that Capps would be counted among the top closers in the game--it's fair to assume that if not for this rule, the Nationals might have no All-Stars at all.