There are a bunch of changes in playing time with Dunn added. Still not willing to project Nick Johnson for more than 50% of the playing time at 1B, I gave the other half to Dunn and dropped Dmitri Young from the scenario altogether. That also allowed Belliard to play a little more 2B, and Young's roster spot went to Alberto Gonzalez to back up Cristian Guzman. About half the additional win value came from these other changes, as CHONE is pretty pessimistic about Dunn, and his Rate2 and UZR defensive stats at LF and 1B cost him about a win and a half of value overall.
As a reminder, I'm calculating the Nationals wins using CHONE for batting and PECOTA for pitching. You can view the full spreadsheet here at Google docs to see all the dirty math. My contribution is to simply estimate playing time and then run the numbers. For more detail on the method, check out my original WAR post here. Also, I have my calculation for fielding runs above replacement posted here and explained at the very bottom of this post.
But for the vast majority of you who just want the bottom line results, here you go:
Hitters WAR
| Pos | Name | PT | wOBA | FRAA | Pos adj | WAR |
| C | J. Flores | 70% | .296 | 0 | 1.25 | 0.80 |
| C | W. Nieves | 30% | .288 | 0 | 1.25 | 0.20 |
| 1B | N. Johnson | 50% | .399 | 7.38 | -1.25 | 2.79 |
| 1B | A. Dunn | 50% | .373 | -13.21 | -1.25 | 0.99 |
| 2B | R. Belliard | 50% | .331 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 1.13 |
| 2B | A. Hernandez | 50% | .288 | 12.68 | 0.25 | 0.46 |
| SS | C. Guzman | 85% | .326 | -3.60 | 0.75 | 1.78 |
| SS | A. Gonzalez | 15% | .288 | 6.72 | 0.75 | 0.12 |
| 3B | R. Zimmerman | 85% | .371 | 15.11 | 0.25 | 5.23 |
| 3B | R. Belliard | 15% | .331 | -8.94 | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| RF | E. Dukes | 65% | .369 | 6.85 | -0.75 | 2.74 |
| RF | A. Kearns | 35% | .341 | 15.16 | -0.75 | 1.17 |
| CF | L. Milledge | 70% | .348 | -8.47 | 0.25 | 1.71 |
| CF | W. Harris | 30% | .330 | 11.85 | 0.25 | 1.01 |
| LF | J. Willingham | 65% | .362 | -15.03 | -0.75 | 1.06 |
| LF | Adam Dunn | 35% | .373 | -15.7 | -0.75 | 1.13 |
| Total | 22.52 |
Pitchers WAR
| IP | ERA | WAR | ||
| SP | John Lannan | 180 | 4.38 | 2.22 |
| SP | Scott Olsen | 190 | 4.42 | 2.26 |
| SP | Daniel Cabrera | 190 | 4.31 | 2.49 |
| SP | Collin Balester | 150 | 5.49 | 0.02 |
| SP | Jordan Zimmermann | 50 | 4.39 | 0.61 |
| SP | Shawn Hill | 60 | 4.65 | 0.56 |
| SP | Jason Bergmann | 50 | 4.75 | 0.41 |
| CL | Joel Hanrahan | 70 | 4.28 | 0.17 |
| SU | Saul Rivera | 70 | 4.09 | 0.32 |
| RP | Jesus Colome | 50 | 4.70 | -0.11 |
| RP | Jason Bergmann | 30 | 4.75 | -0.08 |
| RP | Steven Shell | 60 | 4.35 | 0.10 |
| RP | Mike Hinckley | 40 | 5.71 | -0.53 |
| RP | Marco Estrada | 40 | 5.89 | -0.61 |
| RP | Shairon Martis | 63 | 4.4 | 0.09 |
| RP | Wil Ledezma | 50 | 4.71 | -0.12 |
| RP | Terrell Young | 40 | 6.97 | -1.09 |
| RP | Garrett Mock | 40 | 5.05 | -0.24 |
| RP | Gary Glover | 30 | 5.12 | -0.20 |
| Total | 1450 | 6.37 |
Total Team WAR
| Total Offense WAR | 21.67 |
| Total Defense WAR | 0.50 |
| Total SP WAR | 7.74 |
| Total RP WAR | -1.09 |
| Total Wins | 75.82 |
4 comments:
Most of this stuff is over my head, but I did notice you have Adam Dunn playing 50% at 1B but not in LF.
Umm... ok just glancing at my post I must have been tired because I goofed a couple. The overall numbers and the Google spreadsheets are right, but when I copied over the summary to the post things seem to have been goofed. Let me double-check and fix.
fixed. tx.
Just curious, what is considered an average WAR for a bullpen? If you have the stats available for each team, what's the best WAR and the worst out there? It seems like a negative WAR is pretty terrible.
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