Saturday, February 14, 2009

Nationals Wins Above Replacement Updated with Dunn

Updating my Wins above Replacement calculations with Adam Dunn in the mix, the Nationals now project to win 76 games, up from 74 wins before Dunn.

There are a bunch of changes in playing time with Dunn added. Still not willing to project Nick Johnson for more than 50% of the playing time at 1B, I gave the other half to Dunn and dropped Dmitri Young from the scenario altogether. That also allowed Belliard to play a little more 2B, and Young's roster spot went to Alberto Gonzalez to back up Cristian Guzman. About half the additional win value came from these other changes, as CHONE is pretty pessimistic about Dunn, and his Rate2 and UZR defensive stats at LF and 1B cost him about a win and a half of value overall.

As a reminder, I'm calculating the Nationals wins using CHONE for batting and PECOTA for pitching. You can view the full spreadsheet here at Google docs to see all the dirty math. My contribution is to simply estimate playing time and then run the numbers. For more detail on the method, check out my original WAR post here. Also, I have my calculation for fielding runs above replacement posted here and explained at the very bottom of this post.

But for the vast majority of you who just want the bottom line results, here you go:

Hitters WAR
Pos Name PT wOBA FRAA Pos adj WAR
C J. Flores 70% .296 0 1.25 0.80
C W. Nieves 30% .288 0 1.25 0.20
1B N. Johnson 50% .399 7.38 -1.25 2.79
1B A. Dunn
50% .373 -13.21 -1.25 0.99
2B R. Belliard 50% .331 0.06 0.25 1.13
2B A. Hernandez 50% .288 12.68 0.25 0.46
SS C. Guzman 85% .326 -3.60 0.75 1.78
SS A. Gonzalez 15% .288 6.72 0.75 0.12
3B R. Zimmerman 85% .371 15.11 0.25 5.23
3B R. Belliard 15% .331 -8.94
0.25 0.20
RF E. Dukes 65% .369 6.85 -0.75 2.74
RF A. Kearns 35% .341 15.16 -0.75 1.17
CF L. Milledge 70% .348 -8.47 0.25 1.71
CF W. Harris 30% .330 11.85 0.25 1.01
LF J. Willingham 65% .362 -15.03 -0.75 1.06
LF Adam Dunn
35% .373 -15.7 -0.75 1.13

Total



22.52

Pitchers WAR


IP ERA WAR
SP John Lannan 180 4.38 2.22
SP Scott Olsen 190 4.42 2.26
SP Daniel Cabrera 190 4.31 2.49
SP Collin Balester 150 5.49 0.02
SP Jordan Zimmermann
50
4.39
0.61
SP Shawn Hill 60 4.65 0.56
SP Jason Bergmann 50 4.75 0.41
CL Joel Hanrahan 70 4.28 0.17
SU Saul Rivera 70 4.09 0.32
RP Jesus Colome
50 4.70 -0.11
RP Jason Bergmann 30 4.75 -0.08
RP Steven Shell 60 4.35 0.10
RP Mike Hinckley 40 5.71 -0.53
RP Marco Estrada 40 5.89 -0.61
RP Shairon Martis 63 4.4 0.09
RP Wil Ledezma 50 4.71 -0.12
RP
Terrell Young
40
6.97
-1.09
RP
Garrett Mock
40
5.05
-0.24
RP
Gary Glover
30
5.12
-0.20

Total 1450
6.37

Total Team WAR
Total Offense WAR 21.67
Total Defense WAR 0.50
Total SP WAR 7.74
Total RP WAR -1.09
Total Wins 75.82

4 comments:

estuartj said...

Most of this stuff is over my head, but I did notice you have Adam Dunn playing 50% at 1B but not in LF.

Steven said...

Umm... ok just glancing at my post I must have been tired because I goofed a couple. The overall numbers and the Google spreadsheets are right, but when I copied over the summary to the post things seem to have been goofed. Let me double-check and fix.

Steven said...

fixed. tx.

Will said...

Just curious, what is considered an average WAR for a bullpen? If you have the stats available for each team, what's the best WAR and the worst out there? It seems like a negative WAR is pretty terrible.