Willie Harris, Outfielder (Reprise)

Just sharing this from Harlan today as a reminder that Willie Harris is a good player only really if used as an outfielder. If he's used primarily as an infielder, he is below average defensively, and of course he's really nothing special at the plate regardless.

Let's review why Willie Harris is having a tough day: The do-it-all utility player is starting today at second base. First he messed up a play he'd make 99 times out of 100, and then, three innings later, he messed up a similar (but tougher) play -- so hey, maybe he makes it 98 times out of 100.

In the second inning, Mike Hessman popped one up just behind first base, just foul. Adam Dunn was camping under it, but at the very last moment, Harris yelled loudly, "I've got it! I've got it!" Dunn stepped out of the way. Harris realized too late that he'd misjudged the ball, and ended up making a last-second lunge, in a motion that brought to mind somebody diving out of the way of a train. The ball plunked to the ground, foul. (Hessman later struck out.)

In the fifth, Harris chased after another pop in foul territory. This one was about 20 feet deeper, and would have required some serious backpedaling from Dunn; thus, there was no doubt -- this ball was for Harris. But this time, he seemed to overrun the pop. Again, it fell to the ground, foul.

As for the game update... the Nats trail 3-2 in the sixth. Joe Beimel pitched the final two outs in the fifth, and is on for at least another inning.

Shairon Martis's final line:

4-1/3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 2 HR, 94 pitches (60 strikes)

WAIT -- awesome update...

Just as I was about to "publish" this post, there was a pop hit by Detroit's first batter of the sixth. It was just beyond the second base bag. Cristian Guzman yielded ground to Harris... and as the ball plunged toward Harris's mitt, you could hear the crowd at Space Coast murmur.

Ohhhhhhh....

Harris snagged the pop.

The stadium roared.

He gripped his glove with his right hand, as if holding a treasure, and then pumped his fist into the air.

The applause continued.

Harris took a bow.

There won't be a funnier P-4 all year.

Nick Leads Off: Go with that Manny!

It's just a spring training game, and Milledge is the anointed lead-off man once the season starts, but today's line-up has Nick Johnson leading off.

(He was also DH-ing, which when Nick inevitably goes to Oakland in his latter years is where I expect to see him make headlines when he leads the A's to the playoffs with a healthy, MVP-caliber season at some point when he's maybe 34 or 35 years old. Mark it down. You heard it here first.)

As I've discussed before, Nick is damn near the ideal lead-off man. At the top of the line-up, first and foremost, you want one of your very best hitters. Batting lead-off gets you about 70-80 more plate appearances over the course of the season compared to hitting in the middle of the order. That's significant if you're trading Cristian Guzman for Nick Johnson.

Second, you want a high on-base guy. The most important thing is leading off an inning is to just not make an out. Run expectancy with no outs and no one on is 0.52 runs. Putting a guy on first base almost doubles that to 0.90. Meanwhile, no outs and a runner on second base only raises RE to 1.15. These numbers show you not only the huge value of getting that first hit, but also the relative unimportance of stealing second base. Furthermore, stealing in front of a big power hitter like Adam Dunn is even less smart, since he's always one swing from knocking himself in. The key is to just have a guy who isn't a bad baserunner. You want enough speed to avoid clogging the bases, and you want someone who isn't going to run into outs. But stealing a lot of bases isn't a prerequisite.

Of course power is always good, even in the lead-off spot, and getting those extra ABs for guys who have some pop is desirable, but you don't want your biggest power hitters there for obvious reasons.

Put all that together, and Nick's by far the best option.

One other thing. Since my strangely controversial post last week praising Nick Johnson's excellent spring, his line is up to .268 / .400 / .537. Only eight players in the whole league put up numbers to match those last season: Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Milton Bradley, Chipper Jones, Manny Ramirez, Lance Berkman, and Mark Teixeira. Extend his spring numbers over a full 700 PA season, and he'd have 46 homers and 136 RBI.

That's not called struggling. That's called a great spring training.

Why Can't We Get Coverage Like This...

Seattle's down to one paper, while we still have two major dailies, but this article, printed in an actual dead tree newspaper, reminds us how much better the coverage could be. Harlan's getting better, but we still get far, far too many articles centered around misleading-to-meaningless stats like batting average and pitchers' W-L records.

Odds and Ends

Catching up on some recent news:

• Zimmermann and Martis make the starting five (but Zimmermann starts in AAA anyway). I'm not sure they had any other choice after losing out on Odalis Perez and giving up on Shawn Hill. Balester pitched his way out of a job, and after that you're back to ol' Jason Bergmann or (much worse) someone like Gustavo Chacin. It's all exciting and stuff, but I'm worried about throwing two 22-year-olds into the fire like this. Transitioning pitchers to MLB is tricky, and I'm not sure this team has that good a plan. We'll see. Bottom line, Martis and Zimmermann were the only starting pitchers in camp who had shown any ability to get hitters out with any regularity, so for better or worse they're getting thrown into the fire.
• The upshot for Zimmermann is that leaving him down for a week or two pushes back his ETA at free agency a year (assuming he sticks in the big leagues after this). If they had left him down till the end of May they could have delayed his eligibility for arbitration a year as well, and, again, if he doesn't stick that could still happen.
  
• The prospect formerly known as Smiley might miss the 2009 season because of visa issues, according to Mark Zuckerman at the Times. What to say? Just, wow.
• Re: Jim's handshake agreement with Dmitri Young. Jim didn't honor his own handshake agreements, so why should we? Of course with the dreck we still have cluttering up the 40-man (Clippard, O'Connor), I can't get too worked up.
• Farewell, Wily Mo Painful. It's been at least 3-4 years since the rest of MLB realized that he's the baseball equivalent of a distracting, shiny object. He won't get 250 ABs in a season again.
• Jim Callis has a must-read on the topic of Stephen Strasburg's mechanics, which have been the topic of great discussion on the blogs. The story is for subscribers, but the upshot is that there aren't many scouts who see red flags in his delivery.
• Jose Castillo, Jose Valentin, Corey Patterson: barring a rash of injuries they never had a chance. The reason they were here was because we lacked internal replacement-level depth from our own minor leagues. Deeper, better organizations don't have to waste time with guys like this, but they're more symptom than problem. Anyway, let's hope this is the last time we need to mention any of them.
  
• Did you know: Scott Olsen gave up 5 homers to the Nationals last year. Only Paul Maholm gave up as many to our guys.

Boz Don't Know Jack about Prospects

Just one thing I would add to Brian's dismantling of Boz re: Strasburg. Tom Boswell may do some things well. He's a good writer. He's got a great historical perspective on baseball in DC and Baltimore especially. He really loves the game and that comes through in a charming way.

But he really, truly, all due respect, makes little to no effort to pay any attention at all to prospects. If you read his chats regularly, it's obvious that he doesn't really learn players' names until they've been with the major league team for at least half a season. I would guess that he couldn't name off the top of his head more than 7-8 Nationals minor leaguers and couldn't offer an intelligent analysis of any of them.

If you doubt it, check out this from his most recent chat:

In '93, I'd heard pelnty about the overpowering pitcher at Wichita State named Darren Dreifort. When a high school kid was taken No. 1 overall, one pick ahead of Dreifort, I said, "Who the heck is Alex Rodriguez?"

OK, so in fairness, this was 16 years ago and maybe Boz is mis-remembering. But if he truly had never heard of Alex Rodriguez at the time he was drafted, that's an incredible indication of how little he pays attention to amatuers and prospects.

When ARod was drafted, he was described by Baseball America as "the best high school prospect in years." He was a highly sought-after 2-sport star who was being heavily recruited by the University of Miami to play baseball and quarterback for the Hurricanes. He played for the U.S. Olympic team that year. In terms of hype, ARod was like a high school version of Strasburg--a pretty memorable talent. It's hard to imagine him even misremembering given how much hype surrounded ARod at the time.

I'm not any kind of prospect maven either, but I know enough to know that Boz is way out of his depth on this one.

Must Read on Strasburg and Boz

Everyone should read this post by Brian Oliver at Nationals Farm Authority painstakingly unraveling Tom Boswell's argument for the Nationals passing on the most talented player available in this year's draft.

I applaud Brian not only for his thorough and intelligent breakdown of the issues at hand, but for his patience in considering each of Boz's points at face value. Me, I couldn't bring myself to do anything but roll my eyes and groan.

Help Project Nationals' 2009 with Tom Tango

Tango is doing his "wisdom of the crowds" thing to refine his projections. Click here and offer your guesses on what the Nationals PT will look like this year.

This Week's Natmosphere Round-Up

Here's this week's round-up of notable posts from around the Natmosphere. Enjoy:

• On the topic of Jordan Zimmermann making the opening day 25-man, OMG says "smoke 'em if you got 'em," while Chris Needham I'm pretty sure for the first time ever weighs in for doing the less expensive thing.
• OMG makes a strong case for Lastings the lead-off man.
• Fed Baseball has an interview with SI's Lee Jenkins, who just wrote a feature story on Strasburg.
• Fed Baseball also has Keith Law's video of Strasburg, including a pretty cool shot of the radar gun clocking him at 99.
• NFA offers a breakdown of how the 6-year, $50 million contract for Strasburg might be structured (hint: it wouldn't be all guaranteed money).
• Nationals Review ranks the NL East position-by-position, first hitters, then pitchers. He's got a decidedly home-town slant, but hell why not?
• NNN takes a look at the Nationals young pitchers.
• We've Got Heart wants to make sure you don't miss Ladies' Night!
• Brian, one of the new guys over at Nationals Pride, reminds us that Dunn is quite bad as a fielder.
• Finally, the Stan Kasten chat on WaPo.com inspired the latest StanSpeak translation.

FJB's Official 2009 Big Predictions Post

It's prediction time. As opening day approaches, here are the things I see in my crystal ball. Some of these predictions are more "out on a limb" than others, I think, but regardless, prepare your spitballs and let 'em fly.

• Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Lastings Milledge, Jason Bergmann, and Austin Kearns will be better in 2009 than they were in 2008.
  
• Cristian Guzman, John Lannan, Joe Beimel, Joel Hanrahan, Anderson Hernandez, Ronnie Belliard, and Scott Olsen will be worse.
• Ryan Zimmerman will finally take the next step forward, finishing the season with a slash line over .280 / .350 / .480. But he will not make the all-star team.
  
• Josh Bard will get more than one-third of the starts at catcher.
• Nationals Park will emerge as a very slight hitters park as measured by park factor.
  
• The Nationals will draw fewer than two million fans.
  
• Jason Bergmann will have a better ERA than any of the Nationals' top five starters by games started.
  
• Mike Rizzo will find room for Alberto Gonzalez on the 25-man roster by the end of May at the latest.
• Cristian Guzman, Wily Mo Pena, Dmitri Young, and Ron Belliard will be former Nationals by the end of the season.
• Austin Kearns will have a solid bounce-back season and find himself a starting job with another team by opening day 2010.
• Adam Dunn's streak of 40-HR seasons will end.
  
• Jordan Zimmermann's ERA will be below the 2008 starting pitcher NL average of 4.40.
  
• Despite recent additions, the bullpen will be in the bottom third in the NL by ERA.
• Nationals starting pitchers will throw the fewest innings of any team in the NL.
  
• Scott Olsen will not finish the year in the Nationals rotation.
• The Nationals' top five starting pitchers by IP as a starter will include at least one pitcher not currently with the organization.
• Strasburg will be the pick, and he will sign.
• Aaron Crow will get the $4.4 million he wanted last year.
  
• Shawn Hill will finish the season with more win shares than the Nationals' fifth starter.
• Nick Johnson will get 500 at bats and finish the season with an OPS+ over 140.
• Mike Rizzo will lose the "acting" and be named the new Nationals GM.
• Manny Acta will get another year.
• NL playoff teams: Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, D'Backs.
• AL playoff teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels.
  
• The Dodgers will beat the Yankees in the Series.
  
• The Nationals record will be 74-88, their fourth last place finish in five years.

Chico Harlan, Sabermetrician

This should not go unnoticed. In the middle of an otherwise normal article by Chico Harlan about the Nationals' base-running in the Washington Post we get this:

For Acta, a 70 percent success rate marks the line between helpful and damaging. If you can swipe second seven times in 10, you get an eternal greenlight on Acta's team. When Milledge -- the team's newly appointed leadoff man -- reached first against Moehler on Sunday, he had the green light. His decision-making would dictate the fate of Washington's inning. According to data gathered in 2008, teams with a runner on first and nobody out average 0.900 runs that frame. Make it to second with no outs, and that number jumps only to 1.150. Try for second and get caught, though, and you have none on and one out -- and the number crashes to 0.279. In other words: A failure would cost Milledge more than success would help.

Oh yeah, that's a run expectancy stat in the Washington Post. You keep hating your job just like this, Chico. I don't care what they say about you--you're ok in my book.

Braves Preview with Braves Journal

Wrapping up the tour of NL East team previews that I started back before the Bowden departure, today I'm chatting with Mac from Braves Journal.

In case you missed them, check out my previews with divisional blogger friends Fish Stripes (Marlins), Balls, Sticks & Stuff (Phillies), and Amazin' Avenue (Mets). Thanks to everyone who participated, and I encourage y'all to drop all these guys into your RSS feeds and bookmarks. We have a very cool group of bloggers in the division who make it fun to keep up with the visiting team.

With that, here's my Braves chat:

Finish the following statement: The Braves will be better than expected if...
The outfield is even close to average. The Braves' infield should be very strong, as long as Chipper Jones and Yunel Escobar can stay in the lineup most of the time. But the outfield killed them last year, and most of the same suspects are back again this year.

And, the Braves will be worse than expected if...
Chipper Jones plays fewer than 110-120 games. You know he's going to miss time, but without him there's a big hole in the lineup, and the most important thing is that they minimize the time that the hole's there -- especially since their other franchise hitter, Brian McCann, is a catcher and will miss a game or two a week.

What's your take on the job Stan Kasten's done here in DC? It's hard to remember now, but a lot of Nationals fans were very optimistic about him coming to DC because of the Braves' success while he was there. But, we obviously haven't seen that. Did you expect better? Or do you think Kasten got undue credit for Atlanta's success in the 1990s?
I didn't know he got much credit at all! Kasten was essentially an executive, someone who handled some of the ownership and representation roles. John Schuerholz and Bobby Cox built the team. Kasten had more of a role when the team was terrible. Kasten was essentially a basketball guy and Ted Turner's stooge, not someone who knew much about baseball, but he hired good people.

Who will, and who should, get the fifth spot in the starting rotation?
Tom Glavine will, if he can manage to stumble out to the mound and get the ball over the plate. I think he should retire, but I don't make decisions for him. I don't know why Jorge Campillo, who was the team's second starter last year, is out of the equation, but if they really want a lefty, they should go with Jo-Jo Reyes. I'm not saying Reyes is a good choice, only that he'd be better than Glavine.

If all the Nationals outfielders play up to their potential, especially Willingham, Kearns, Dukes, and Milledge, we're probably going to want to make a trade. The Braves seem like a team that could use an OF or two. Any interest?
I don't know why the Braves didn't try to get Willingham, except that they seem to think that they're "set." I can't imagine them going after Dukes or Milledge. I think a few years ago Bobby Cox would have been able to control them, but not these days.

What else should we watch for when the Braves come to town this year?
Last year, the team fell apart partially because of the abhorrent outfield, but also because they didn't get a lot of innings from the starters, which overloaded the bullpen, leading to ineffectiveness and injuries. If the Braves can get innings -- effective innings -- from their starting pitchers, they'll compete.

Boz Calls for the Nationals to Draft Chipper Jones

Boz has a column this morning, which you probably already read, which argues that it's always a mistake to draft a pitcher with the first pick in the draft, and that the Nationals should consider passing on Strasburg over signability.

He's right of course that the track record for pitchers taken number one is not as good as for position players. If you could choose between a consensus top position player and a consensus top pitcher, I think we'd all agree that you'd be safer and happier with the consensus top position player, if nothing else because of the injury factor.

But the obvious point that he's missing is that we're not drafting number one in a year in which an Alex Rodriguez or a Chipper Jones or a Ken Griffey is on the board. Just because you take a hitter #1 doesn't mean he's going to be a star. If you reach for a guy who isn't really a #1 talent, you get Matt Bush. Regardless, there's no ARod on the board--not even close.

The consensus top talent in the draft by far going away is Strasburg, a guy who is seriously being discussed by serious, smart baseball people as perhaps the best pitching prospect ever.

To pass on the best player available--to pass on this best player available--over either fear of pitchers or fear of Boras would be a disastrous debacle. This would be Matt Bush, Daniel Moskos, and Brian Bullington rolled into one times ten.

Also, consider this: the 2009 draft is shaping up as an overwhelmingly pitching-heavy draft at the top. If you follow Boz's admonition to avoid a pitcher at #1, you aren't only skipping the consensus #1, you are also skipping the current consensus #2, North Carolina right-hander Alex White. So, looking at Baseball America's top 100 draft prospect list, that leaves you with USC SS Grant Green, UNC 1B/OF Dustin Ackley, or Cartersville (GA) High School OF Donovan Tate. Good players, but not special, #1 pick type talents.

Oh, but then there's one other problem: Ackley, Green, and Tate are all Boras clients. So I guess according to Boz we can't take them either. After these three, the next seven prospects are all pitchers--11 of 14 top prospects on the board.

To find a hitter not represented by Scott Boras you have to drop all the way to Luke Bailey, the high school catcher out of Georgia. That's not what you should be rooting for Boz.

One last point: as Keith Law pointed out on the Baseball Think Factory chat, it's a myth that Boras clients don't sign:

The vast majority of Boras clients taken in the first round sign. Only one of five didn't last year, and that wasn't over money but over the kid's desire to go to school (or just his flaky makeup, depending on whom you ask). The year before, there were four, and they all signed. In 2006, I count three, and all signed.

Mark it down: if the Nationals draft Strasburg and fail to sign him, it'll be on the Nationals, not Boras.

Pardon me for Noticing: Nick Is Red Hot

There's been a spate of stories lately about how Nick Johnson is 'struggling' this fall. We have this from Chico Harlan's Sunday Post story:

Johnson's insistence to swing and swing some more came from two separate feelings -- gratitude, because his body finally feels good, and determination, because sometimes, his swing still doesn't.

"No, I wouldn't say my swing feels like I want it to," Johnson said. "But hopefully in these next couple weeks I can turn it up a notch. I'm just trying to get that feel, just to be ready when the bell rings."

Johnson arrived at Space Coast Stadium on Saturday morning with a .167 spring training average (5 for 30), not that he knew the numbers. He just knew the root cause: He was still searching for comfort. So at 10 a.m. he took batting practice on the main field, and then asked hitting coach Rick Eckstein to join him on a minor league field for another 15 minutes of work. On this day, the Washington Nationals had Johnson batting fourth, starting at first base. Still treated by those around him as a known commodity, Johnson intended to prove them right.

The great gap in Johnson's track record provides the context for this spring.

And this from today's Examiner, in a piece titled, "Teams hope spring struggles fall by the wayside":

Washington’s likely starting first baseman has missed almost the entire past two seasons combined. His timing reflects that absence as he had just five hits in his first 30 at-bats. The good news: Three of the hits were homers.

One problem with this thesis. Nick is having a pretty damn good spring, thank you very much.

Following today's game, he had an OBP of .363 and an SLG of .527. There were exactly eight players in the entire National League last year that could match both of those numbers: Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, Ryan Ludwick, Matt Holliday, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, and Chase Utley. "Spring troubles," my foot.

So what's the disconnect? It's the .222 batting average. It's a case study in why BA is a dumb stat. Any stat that ignores almost 20% of a guy's plate appearances, all of which end with him on first base, is not a very helpful stat for evaluating a guy's overall value.

So stop worrying about Nick. There is no "great gap" in his performance. He's our best player, and he's showing it this spring. We should be so lucky to have him keep it up once the regular season starts.

Boras Has Stan by the You-Know-Whats

And he's only begun to squeeze.

On the substance of the Peter Gammons report that Scott Boras is seeking a 6-year, $50 million contract for his client Stephen Strasburg, my take is more or less the same as NFA's assessment here.

The key points as far as I'm concerned are a) Boras is just doing his job, and his job is to be a badass mo-fo in the negotiations and squeeze every owner he can for every dime he can, and b) ballplayers are entitled to a badass mo-fo negotiating on their behalf, and you would want one too if you were in their place.

But here's one other important point I would add. The main reason why Boras has leverage to make such demands is because Strasburg just so happens to be the most highly regarded prospect in years, and his market value (if he were allowed to put his talent on the free market) would far, far exceed 6 years and $50 million.

But there's another reason why he has Kasten by the balls. Stan, in a fit of pique last summer, decided that he was willing to harm his team on the field and cost his franchise money in order to get the short-term gratification of telling an agent to fuck off. Boras, like a good negotiator, is doing it by the book: starting with a high asking price, trying to limit the number of extraneous issues are on the table, etc. Stan on the other hand broke the first rule on the first page of the Negotiations 101 manual: don't get emotional.

Stan's made it clear that he hates agents, doesn't think they exist, and if you read between the lines it's clear that he still considers it illegitimate that the reserve clause was ever done away with. He refused to go one dime over $3.3 million, despite the fact that Crow's bonus demands were the only reason he fell to us at 9 in the first place, despite the fact that the player was clearly willing to play independent league ball and take his chances next year, that Justin Smoak got $3.5 million at 11, that another $700k would have gotten him in the fold, that the Nationals have one of the weakest farm systems in baseball and desperately need to be building, not squandering what little fan interest remains... It must have been quite a high to tell the Hendricks brothers where to go at midnight, but the hangover was a doozy, and it's still there.

After the Crow debacle, the team's reputation has sunk to new lows. The bad PR comes on top of SmileyGate, the 102 losses, all the Jim stuff, Chad Cordero... As Stan said when Jim was shoved out the door, fans and the media aren't paying any attention to the 'good' things happening with the team. It's killing the value of his product. Ratings are laughable. Attendance was as bad as it could be for a new stadium, and the team has to be really holding its breath on this year. And any analyst will tell you that we're at least 2-3 years away from a winner. What would it mean to the team's bottom line if they blew the Strasburg signing? Given how badly the team's reputation has been damaged already, they'd get zero benefit of the doubt from anyone. They'd officially become the L.A. Clippers / Detroit Lions of MLB (if they aren't already).

Whoever we draft with the 10th pick will also have an unusually high degree of leverage over the team, because if we don't sign him there's no third bite at the apple--we just lose that Aaron Crow pick and the reward for sitting through the 2007 Washington Nationals is bupkis.

Today of course, Stan came out calling the Boras demands silly. But what's silly is Kasten's continued insistence on players accepting the "slot" bonus system that the owners unilaterally created out of thin air and that no player or player representative has ever regarded as legitimate whatsoever. Today, Kasten again tossed out "slot" as his expectation for signing Strasburg, which is funny, if you're not one of the poor saps saddled with a masochistic impulse to follow this team. This from the Post:

Kasten also stood firm in discussing the Nationals' negotiating position toward their top overall draft pick ("whomever it may be," he said), implying the team was not interested in blowing up the established signing-bonus framework for anyone.

"A hundred years of baseball and four decades of collective bargaining have shown how you develop players and how they proceed through the system," Kasten said.

Come again? In what way is the slot system 'established'? When in any CBA have the players ever agreed to a system that limited draftees from negotiating bonuses? At this point last year I would have dismissed this kind of talk as empty bluffing. Now though you have to assume that Stan's serious and that he just might be willing to cost his team still more millions to make is quixotic point that when he says "jump, boy" that players are supposed to say, "how high?"

In Strasburg's case though, Stan's barking is toothless. Boras has just begun to squeeze. Just wait till he starts to twist and pull.

Optimizing the Nationals Batting Order

With a hat tip to Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, Andy Dolphin, and Sky Kalkman, this post looks at the Nationals batting order and projects an ideal lineup to maximize offensive production.

First, a little context. Tango/Lichtman/Dolphin in The Book wrote about batting orders and blew up some long-held assumptions about the best way to build a line-up. Some of the key points:

1. Batting order actually doesn't matter that much. Perfectly optimizing a line-up will typically deliver at best one or two additional wins over the course of a season. That's not nothing, but it's a lot less important than you'd think given the amount of oxygen, ink, and pixels spilled on the topic.
2. One of the most important factors to consider is simply the increased number of at bats hitters get near the top of the lineup. This factor makes the second spot as important as the clean up slot.
3. In the lead-off spot, OBP is overwhelmingly the most important factor, and speed is really not that important. You don't want clods, but you don't need big base-stealers. In fact, assuming you're bunching up your best hitters near the top of the line-up, you're not going to want to risk outs by running the lead-off man anyway. The best base-stealers are better used down in the line-up in front of slappy singles hitters.
   
4. The third batter is much less important than typically assumed, because this hitter comes to the plate with two outs and no one on an unusually high percentage of the time (in the first inning).

Sky gives a very good quick summary of in this post:

In plain English (sort of), we want to know how costly making an out is by each lineup position, based on the base-out situations they most often find themselves in, and then weighted by how often each lineup spot comes to the plate. Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs: #1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9.

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters in the #5 and #3 holes, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with base-stealers ahead of singles hitters.

Sky has been applying these principles to various teams over at Beyond the Boxscore (sorry if I'm scooping you on the Nationals, Sky--I'm guessing you aren't going to bother with the worst teams in the league on this series...), and I thought it would be fun to do the same with our hometown nine. Here's my ideal Nationals line-up, assuming the starters currently listed atop the Nationals depth chart.

Here it is, the official FJB ideal batting order for the 2009 Washington Nationals:

1. Nick Johnson
It's really strange to me that fans and the team apparently have spent so much time fretting over the lead-off spot over the last four years when we have damn near the ideal lead-off man in Nick Johnson. He's an OBP god, and, although he's not a big speed guy, as noted above that isn't all that important here anyway. And still, it's not like he's a big base-clogger. In fact, last season, despite the injuries, he was fifth on the team in EqBRR (Equivalent Base Running Runs, a BP stat that measures the number of runs added on the basepaths from stolen bases, taking the extra base on singles, etc.) with 0.46 runs added. (Cristian Guzman, the presumed lead-off man, by the way, was next-to-last on the team with -2.99 EqBRR.)

2. Elijah Dukes
I'm really tempted to put Dunn here, because just getting him the 30-40 additional PAs he'd get in the #2 hole is tempting. The conventional wisdom that you don't want big strikeout guys in the #2 hole because you want to be able to move the runner over if an out is made. But this is actually exactly wrong: you'd rather have the #2 hitter, who comes to base with no outs and a runner on first a lot, make strikeouts than contact outs to avoid DPs.

All that said, I want to avoid bunching up our lefties to provide a measure of protection from LOOGYs for Johnson and Dunn. Dukes is certainly the next best option here, and we don't lose too much in those extra 30-40 ABs with him versus Dunn.

3. Lastings Milledge
Milledge is the team's fifth best hitter, so he goes here in the third spot, the fifth most important spot in the line-up. Again, all those two-out, bases-empty first inning PAs really erode the importance of this spot vis-a-vis the #1, 2, and 4 spots.

4. Adam Dunn
If Dunn gets on in the first inning, by definition it will mean there's at least one runner on. Beyond that, he benefits from hitting in close proximity to two of our best three hitters (Johnson and Dukes).

5. Ryan Zimmerman
Clearly the best option here, Zimmerman gives you the combination of solid power and on-base skills to drive in Dunn when he doesn't clear the bases himself.

6. Cristian Guzman
With his poor on base skills, Guzman belongs nowhere near the lead-off spot. This is by far the biggest mistake Manny makes, and given his supposed propensity for statistical analysis, he should know better. Not only would Johnson be a better option, but Kearns, Willingham, and Dukes would be as well.

As for Guzman, for a contender, he'd really belong in the 7th or 8th spot. In this line-up, Guzman is the next best hitter and can keep the L-R-L-R thing going. From here on out, we're just listing players in declining order of overall offensive value.

7. Jesus Flores
You remember his game-winners, but it's his .296 OBP that you should focus on. He's very young, and I like him as much as the next Nationals fan, but right now he's the worst of a weak crop in the NL East. He's another guy who wouldn't hit higher than 8th on a good team.

8. Pitcher
Hitting the pitcher 8th can in fact create a few extra runs a year by creating some space between him and the very best hitters in the order. You just don't want automatic outs in front of Johnson and Dukes. Jordan Zimmermann was a two-way star at UW-Stevens Point and some think he might be a competent hitter, but Lannan, Olsen, Cabrera, Balester, and Martis are as automatic as any outs in MLB. Really, we should be looking to pinch hit for them as aggressively as possible.

9. Anderson Hernandez
I cringe when I think the team might actually be considering batting AHern in the #1 or 2 holes. Almost all the projection systems expect him to be among the absolute worst offensive regulars in MLB. We should be doing everything possible to minimize his plate appearances.

Using CHONE projections and the lineup analysis tool from Baseball Musings, which was developed based on similar principles to those laid out in The Book, we find that the above line up would produce 4.825 runs a game.

For comparison, that's 0.113 more runs per game than would be produced by what I'm guessing is the most likely Nationals line-up to be used by Manny this year:

1. Guzman
2. Milledge
3. Johnson
4. Dunn
5. Zimmerman
6. Dukes
7. Flores
8. Hernandez
9. Pitcher

A gain of 0.113 runs per game might not sound like much, but that's 18 runs over 162 games, which is nearly 2 more wins. If you had to pay for two more wins on the free agent market, it would cost several million dollars at least at fair market value. If we can squeeze out two extra wins for nothing just by properly arranging our line-up, let's do it!

Nationals Sign Josh Bard

I like the move, especially at this price, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Bard step in as the starter if Jesus Flores's long 2008 season-ending slump carries over into 2009.

In fact, like the Beimel signing, this is a move I had suggested earlier this off-season (hope that doesn't seem like I'm breaking my arm patting myself on the back--it's not my intent). It's nothing that's going to catapult us into the playoffs, but it's a nice little upgrade that makes sense. Here's what I wrote in my position-by-position hot stove preview back in October:

With Flores and the nice collection of young guys in the system, catcher is one of our stronger suits both short- and long-term. Still, it's not as if we're sitting on Matt Weiters or Brian McCann here. We shouldn't be resting on our laurels.

Ideally, I'd like to see the Nationals cut Wil Nieves loose and bring in a younger major league-ready left-handed (or switch-hitting) back-up with at least some upside to pair with Flores and start maybe 40 games next year. That means making a trade. Some guys I see out there who might be available and fit the bill: Miguel Montero (D'Backs), Jason Jaramillo (Phillies), or John Jaso (Rays).

Failing that, I would still rather see them bring in a veteran lefty free agent backup like Greg Zaun (Blue Jays), Josh Bard (Padres), or Javier Valentin (Reds) rather than settling for Nieves or Montz. These guys at least would give us an upgrade in '09 and give us a more credible fall-back should Flores get hurt or something.

Here's what I wrote when the Red Sox signed Bard and Brad Penny:

Josh Bard signed with the Sox for $1.6m. He's a switch-hitting back-up catcher and a solid defender who would have fit in nicely with the Nationals, especially at that price. Last season his offensive numbers cratered to .279 OBP and .270 SLG as he suffered a series of nagging injuries including a sprained ankle and off-season wrist surgery that affected him early on. The wrist completely wiped out what little power he ever had, but what really hurt him was a .230 BABIP, which canceled out most of the value of his good on-base skills. Even last year he had a solid 9.2% walk rate. But his BB and K rates remained consistent with his career averages, and Bill James and Marcel both expect him to rebound to right around .340 OBP / .395 SLG. Chone has him a bit worse at .338 / .369, and even there he'd be a measurable upgrade over Wil Nieves, who is a nice guy and all but shouldn't be on a major league roster except in the event of an emergency.

These are the kinds of buy-low candidates that the Nationals should be looking to scoop up for one-year deals. In addition to filling short-term needs, both of them have a chance to become type-A or B free agents if they can bounce back with good seasons next year, which will net draft picks if they sign with another team for 2010. Kudos to the Red Sox, who don't really need to be seeking out undervalued commodities but are smartly doing it anyway.

Nationals Blogger Fantasy Baseball Draft Results

Forget the NL East. The real bragging rights on the line this year are in the inaugural Nationals blogger fantasy baseball smackdown! Playing are Kristen from We've Got Heart, Hendo from Nationals Pride, Dave and Cheryl from Nationals News Network, Sean from from DC Sports Plus, Kenny G. from The Musings of Kenny G., me, and as a representative of the peanut gallery we have frequent Natmosphere commenter T.J. Oh yeah, FJB's got these mopes smoked.

It's a head-to-head roto league using the following categories: R, HR, RBI, TB, AVG, OBP, NSB, W, L, SV, BB, K, ERA, WHIP. We just finished our draft, and in the completely unlikely event that any of you care, here are the results. We'll also check back a couple times during the year to see who's getting the best of the bunch.

Round 1
1. Hanley Ramírez -- Commenter TJ
2. Albert Pujols -- Hendo’s Hutch
3. José Reyes -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
4. David Wright -- The Musings of Kenny G
5. Grady Sizemore -- DC Sports Plus
6. Johan Santana -- We’ve Got Heart
7. Carlos Beltrán -- Fire Jim Bowden
8. Miguel Cabrera -- Nats News Network (Dave)

Round 2
1. Ryan Braun -- Nats News Network (Dave)
2. CC Sabathia -- Fire Jim Bowden
3. Ryan Howard -- We’ve Got Heart
4. Josh Hamilton -- DC Sports Plus
5. Ian Kinsler -- The Musings of Kenny G
6. Jimmy Rollins -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
7. Mark Teixeira -- Hendo’s Hutch
8. Evan Longoria -- Commenter TJ

Round 3
1. Tim Lincecum -- Commenter TJ
2. B.J. Upton -- Hendo’s Hutch
3. Alfonso Soriano -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
4. Lance Berkman -- The Musings of Kenny G
5. Prince Fielder -- DC Sports Plus
6. Shane Victorino -- We’ve Got Heart
7. Chase Utley -- Fire Jim Bowden
8. Carlos Quentin -- Nats News Network (Dave)

Round 4
1. Dustin Pedroia -- Nats News Network (Dave)
2. Jonathan Papelbon -- Fire Jim Bowden
3. Geovany Soto -- We’ve Got Heart
4. Brandon Phillips -- DC Sports Plus
5. Carlos Lee -- The Musings of Kenny G
6. Justin Morneau -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
7. Carl Crawford -- Hendo’s Hutch
8. Jason Bay -- Commenter TJ

Round 5
1. Brian Roberts -- Commenter TJ
2. Vladimir Guerrero -- Hendo’s Hutch
3. Ichiro Suzuki -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
4. Manny Ramírez -- The Musings of Kenny G
5. David Ortiz -- DC Sports Plus
6. Ryan Zimmerman -- We’ve Got Heart
7. Chipper Jones -- Fire Jim Bowden
8. Nick Markakis -- Nats News Network (Dave)

Round 6
1. Matt Kemp -- Nats News Network (Dave)
2. Mariano Rivera -- Fire Jim Bowden
3. Adam Dunn -- We’ve Got Heart
4. Matt Holliday -- DC Sports Plus
5. Russell Martin -- The Musings of Kenny G
6. Aramis Ramírez -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
7. Álex Rodríguez -- Hendo’s Hutch
8. Brian McCann -- Commenter TJ

Round 7
1. Cole Hamels -- Commenter TJ
2. Brandon Webb -- Hendo’s Hutch
3. Curtis Granderson -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
4. Álex Ríos -- The Musings of Kenny G
5. Kevin Youkilis -- DC Sports Plus
6. Francisco Rodríguez -- We’ve Got Heart
7. Jay Bruce -- Fire Jim Bowden
8. Jake Peavy -- Nats News Network (Dave)

Round 8
1. Adrián González -- Nats News Network (Dave)
2. Dan Haren -- Fire Jim Bowden
3. Joakim Soria -- We’ve Got Heart
4. Joe Mauer -- DC Sports Plus
5. Jacoby Ellsbury -- The Musings of Kenny G
6. Alexei Ramírez -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
7. Rafael Furcal -- Hendo’s Hutch
8. Roy Halladay -- Commenter TJ

Round 9
1. Nate McLouth -- Commenter TJ
2. Víctor Martínez -- Hendo’s Hutch
3. Francisco Liriano -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
4. Troy Tulowitzki -- The Musings of Kenny G
5. Stephen Drew -- DC Sports Plus
6. Scott Kazmir -- We’ve Got Heart
7. Joey Votto -- Fire Jim Bowden
8. Joe Nathan -- Nats News Network (Dave)

Round 10
1. Chad Billingsley -- Nats News Network (Dave)
2. J.J. Hardy -- Fire Jim Bowden
3. Mike González -- We’ve Got Heart
4. Josh Beckett -- DC Sports Plus
5. Brad Lidge -- The Musings of Kenny G
6. Dan Uggla -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
7. Chone Figgins -- Hendo’s Hutch
8. Cliff Lee -- Commenter TJ

Round 11
1. Ryan Ludwick -- Commenter TJ
2. John Lackey -- Hendo’s Hutch
3. Félix Hernández -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
4. Ervin Santana -- The Musings of Kenny G
5. Rich Harden -- DC Sports Plus
6. Matt Garza -- We’ve Got Heart
7. Jonathan Broxton -- Fire Jim Bowden
8. Michael Young -- Nats News Network (Dave)

Round 12
1. Ryan Doumit -- Nats News Network (Dave)
2. Corey Hart -- Fire Jim Bowden
3. Xavier Nady -- We’ve Got Heart
4. James Shields -- DC Sports Plus
5. Roy Oswalt -- The Musings of Kenny G
6. Joba Chamberlain -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
7. A.J. Burnett -- Hendo’s Hutch
8. Carlos Peña -- Commenter TJ

Round 13
1. Jon Lester -- Commenter TJ
2. Bobby Jenks -- Hendo’s Hutch
3. Matt Wieters -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
4. Yovani Gallardo -- The Musings of Kenny G
5. Daisuke Matsuzaka -- DC Sports Plus
6. Elijah Dukes -- We’ve Got Heart
7. Javier Vázquez -- Fire Jim Bowden
8. Edinson Vólquez -- Nats News Network (Dave)

Round 14
1. Carlos Zambrano -- Nats News Network (Dave)
2. Bobby Abreu -- Fire Jim Bowden
3. Mike Pelfrey -- We’ve Got Heart
4. Carlos Mármol -- DC Sports Plus
5. Matt Cain -- The Musings of Kenny G
6. José Valverde -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
7. B.J. Ryan -- Hendo’s Hutch
8. Jhonny Peralta -- Commenter TJ

Round 15
1. Ricky Nolasco -- Commenter TJ
2. Justin Verlander -- Hendo’s Hutch
3. David Price -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
4. Adam Wainwright -- The Musings of Kenny G
5. Kerry Wood -- DC Sports Plus
6. Anderson Hernández -- We’ve Got Heart
7. Derrek Lee -- Fire Jim Bowden
8. Francisco Cordero -- Nats News Network (Dave)

Round 16
1. Zack Greinke -- Nats News Network (Dave)
2. Derek Lowe -- Fire Jim Bowden
3. Derek Jeter -- We’ve Got Heart
4. Ryan Dempster -- DC Sports Plus
5. Brian Fuentes -- The Musings of Kenny G
6. Chris Young -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
7. Brett Myers -- Hendo’s Hutch
8. Lastings Milledge -- Commenter TJ

Round 17
1. Max Scherzer -- Commenter TJ
2. Matt Capps -- Hendo’s Hutch
3. Aaron Harang -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
4. Brandon Morrow -- The Musings of Kenny G
5. Brian Wilson -- DC Sports Plus
6. Huston Street -- We’ve Got Heart
7. Garrett Atkins -- Fire Jim Bowden
8. Heath Bell -- Nats News Network (Dave)

Round 18
1. Hunter Pence -- Nats News Network (Dave)
2. Mike Napoli -- Fire Jim Bowden
3. Justin Upton -- We’ve Got Heart
4. Magglio Ordóñez -- DC Sports Plus
5. Chris Davis -- The Musings of Kenny G
6. Chad Qualls -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
7. Jermaine Dye -- Hendo’s Hutch
8. Joel Hanrahan -- Commenter TJ

Round 19
1. Trevor Hoffman -- Commenter TJ
2. Aubrey Huff -- Hendo’s Hutch
3. Vernon Wells -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
4. Howie Kendrick -- The Musings of Kenny G
5. Robinson Canó -- DC Sports Plus
6. Cameron Maybin -- We’ve Got Heart
7. Kelly Johnson -- Fire Jim Bowden
8. Edwin Encarnación -- Nats News Network (Dave)

Round 20
1. Torii Hunter -- Nats News Network (Dave)
2. Andre Ethier -- Fire Jim Bowden
3. Jair Jurrjens -- We’ve Got Heart
4. Chris Young -- DC Sports Plus
5. Johnny Damon -- The Musings of Kenny G
6. Miguel Tejada -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
7. Carlos Delgado -- Hendo’s Hutch
8. Mike Aviles -- Commenter TJ

Round 21
1. Brad Hawpe -- Commenter TJ
2. Raúl Ibañez -- Hendo’s Hutch
3. Nelson Cruz -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
4. Jayson Werth -- The Musings of Kenny G
5. Conor Jackson -- DC Sports Plus
6. Jesús Flores -- We’ve Got Heart
7. Hiroki Kuroda -- Fire Jim Bowden
8. Chris Iannetta -- Nats News Network (Dave)

Round 22
1. Adrián Béltre -- Nats News Network (Dave)
2. Bengie Molina -- Fire Jim Bowden
3. John Lannan -- We’ve Got Heart
4. James Loney -- DC Sports Plus
5. Jorge Cantú -- The Musings of Kenny G
6. Mark DeRosa -- Nats News Network (Cheryl)
7. Alex Gordon -- Hendo’s Hutch
8. Josh Johnson -- Commenter TJ

Updated Nationals WAR

Plus Joe Beimel, Julian Tavarez, and a little more Shairon Martis and Jordan Zimmermann, minus Shawn Hill, Gary Glover, and Wil Ledezma, the Nationals are projected to win just a bit fewer than 77 wins as a team, according to the FJB exclusive wins above replacement analysis. You can check out the dirty math here.

The calculations are based on CHONE hitters projections and PECOTA pitchers projections. As of February 14, before these moves, the Nationals were also a hair under 77 wins. In other words, dumping Hill and upgrading the bullpen is a wash.

Pos	Name	PT	wOBA	FRAA	WAR
C	Jesus Flores	70%	.296	0	0.80
C	Wil Nieves	30%	.288	0	0.20
1B	Nick Johnson	50%	.399	7.38	2.79
1B	Adam Dunn	50%	.373	-13.21	0.99
2B	Ron Belliard	50%	.331	0.06	1.13
2B	A. Hernandez	50%	.288	12.68	0.46
SS	Cristian Guzman	85%	.326	-3.6	1.78
SS	Alberto Gonzalez	15%	.288	6.72	0.12
3B	Ryan Zimmerman	85%	.371	15.11	5.23
3B	Ron Belliard	15%	.331	-8.94	0.20
RF	Elijah Dukes	65%	.369	6.85	2.74
RF	Austin Kearns	35%	.341	15.16	1.17
CF	Lastings Milledge	70%	.348	-8.47	1.71
CF	Willie Harris	30%	.330	11.85	1.01
LF	Adam Dunn	35%	.373	-15.7	1.13
LF	Josh Willingham	65%	.362	-15.03	1.06
	Total				22.52

		IP	ERA	WAR
SP	Scott Olsen	190	4.42	2.26
SP	Daniel Cabrera	190	4.31	2.49
SP	John Lannan	180	4.38	2.22
SP	Collin Balester	90	5.49	0.01
SP	Shairon Martis	100	5.19	0.34
SP	Jordan Zimmermann	100	4.39	1.22
SP	Jason Bergmann	20	4.75	0.17
CL	Joel Hanrahan	70	4.28	0.17
SU	Saul Rivera	70	4.09	0.32
RP	Steven Shell	60	4.35	0.10
RP	Julian Tavarez	60	4.57	-0.05
RP	Jesus Colome	60	4.7	-0.13
RP	Joe Beimel	70	4.09	0.32
RP	Terrell Young	40	6.97	-1.09
RP	Garrett Mock	50	5.05	-0.30
RP	Mike Hinckley	20	5.71	-0.27
RP	Jason Bergmann	70	4.75	-0.19
	Total	1440		7.57

This Week's Natmosphere Round-Up

Reprising a weekly Friday feature that I did during the season last year, I'll be collecting notable posts from around the Internets, mostly focused on non-professional Nationals team blogs. Here are the posts I enjoyed most this week:

• Reax to Shawn Hill's abrupt release were widespread. Some, like me, simply assumed that there must be something we don't know. That group includes NFL and Nationals Enquirer. NFA and Chris Needham see the move as a necessity to make room for Joe Beimel. Everyone wishes the guy well. Hendo likes that they're opening innings for Martis and Zimmermann. FWIW, non-Nationals bloggers were generally far less forgiving of the move. Eric Seidman and Dave Cameron at Fangraphs, Sky Kalkman at BtB, and Lookout Landing all panned the move.
• NFA had a Q&A with smarty-pants LHP prospect Jack McGeary.
  
• OMG recounts the curse of the Nationals' #2 starting pitchers. Ouch!
• NTP wades into the Jordan Zimmermann nickname debate with a new offering: Hova. If you're going to make a Jay-Z reference, this would be the one. There are a lot of ideas out there, from BobLHead's ZNN, my own Flash Jordan, and the hopelessly square "J.Z."
• It's more than a week old, but OMG's cautionary note on Spring Training stats bears re-linking.
• Fed Baseball continued a series scouting Stephen Strasburg's starts for San Diego State with a detailed breakdown of his win over UNLV.
• Sean at DC Sports Plus does a little mind exercise comparing the 2005 Nationals to the 2009 group to see if we can exceed the performance of our beloved 81-81 (still last place) inaugural Nationals. (One note to Sean: the 2005 Nationals Pythagorean record was 77-85, so from a pure statistical perspective, you're going to need to beat that squad by 4 wins in order to make up for the luck factor.)
• Nationals Enquirer runs through Julian Tavarez's history of bad behavior, wondering what the clubhouse mix is like with renowned hot-heads Elijah Dukes and Scott Olsen already adding combustible fuel to the fire.
  

Willie Harris, Outfielder

Because of the logjam in the outfield, Willie Harris's chances of seeing playing time in the outfield is slim. He's currently listed third on the Nationals depth chart in center and way down at fourth in left behind Wily Mo Painful (c'mon now, Ladson, that ain't right...).

It's true that he can play second. And in a real pinch, he can play a little third or short. But he really can't make the throws from there. He's only started six games ever on the left side of the infield, three of those for the Nationals with their ridiculous 2008 roster snafus. Harris really isn't a utility infielder.

The reality is that most of Harris's value is in his outfield defense. Take a look. Averaging out five prominent projection systems (CHONE, Bill James, ZIPs, Oliver, and Marcel), Harris is expected to post a .325 wOBA in 2009. The wOBA stat is a composite metric measuring overall offensive value, and it is scaled so that the league average wOBA is the same as league average OBP. Average OBP in the NL last year was .331, so Harris is expected to be a touch below average at the plate.

Let's assume that he was a full-time left fielder. For his career, his average UZR/150 is 18.5, meaning that he prevents 18.5 runs better than the average LF over the course of a full season. A .325 wOBA and a 18.5 UZR/150 gives you a 2.30 wins above replacement LF. In CF, his career UZR/150 is 10.8, and therefore as a full-time CF he's a 2.51 wins above replacement player.

But at 2B, his career UZR/150 is just 1.4, making him a 1.72 wins above replacement player. In other words, by playing him in the OF, you increase his value to the team by 0.6 to 0.8 wins over the course of a full season. That might not seem like a lot, but when you're thinking about optimizing player value with decisions like this it is. Think of it this way. Tom Tango has shown that using the perfect batting order is worth 5-15 runs over the course of a season, which translates to about 0.5-1.5 wins. And how much time is spent fretting over batting orders?

Of course, he's not going to play either position full time, but the point is clear that using Harris primarily as an infielder significantly reduces his value to the team. Among all the other reasons to clear out one of the Nationals extra outfielders (Willingham), add that we can raise Willie Harris's value by using him as the fith outfielder he ought to be.

Beimel in, Hill Out

I called for the Nationals to sign Joe Beimel last week. The deal makes perfect sense. We need a lefty out of the 'pen. Mike Hinckley, Mike O'Connor, and Wil Ledezma weren't going to cut it. No, you don't want to overpay for a relief pitcher, but for one year and $2 million, the price is right. And going into the season with five of seven bullpen slots filled by dumpster diving trash and unproven rooks is just a little bit much.

Here's what I wrote about Beimel last week:

Over the last two seasons, Beimel has given the Dodgers 116.3 innings in the 3.3s FIP, good for 1.6 wins above replacement and $2.8 million total. At 32, Beimel isn't old, and he's been effective enough against righties to be used as more than a LOOGY. He's given up just one homer over the last two years and racked up groundball rates near or over 50% since breaking through in the Dodgers' bullpen in 2006. PECOTA and CHONE both expect his ERA to regress back to around 4.00-4.10 in 2009. He should be available for one year, around $2 million, or maybe a bit less.

One other thing to note: this is now three pitchers in the Rizz regime, all with groundball rates over 50% (Kip Wells and Julian Tavarez the others). I think we know Mike's type. Don't be shocked if he finds a way to get Alberto Gonzalez onto the 25-man to take advantage of all these groundballers he's piling up.

Regarding Hill. Sad. Bummed. Disappointed. I'm going to assume that the team's doctors see something that none of us do. If he shows up throwing strikes and getting 55% groundballs anytime in the next 16 months, I'll be fit to be tied, but otherwise we'll assume the team thinks he's just broken and wish him luck.

One wonders what changed between when Bowden decided to tender him a contract last winter and now. Is it Hill's health or is it that Rizz differed with Jim on this and is just eating a portion of his $750k salary for the pleasure of overruling his old boss.

• Update: To be precise, as per NFA Brian, they only have to pay 1/6th of Hill's salary since they cut him now. Still in benefit of the doubt mode, I'm going to assume this was entirely a medical decision. If it was the money, this is a near Aaron Crow-level abomination. But I'm in benefit of the doubt mode.
• Update 2: I would be remiss not to give a shout out to FJB commenter NY Stat Guy who had the Hill news hours before hit broke publicly. He broke the news in a comment here.
  

Why it Might Make Sense to Leave Flash Jordan in AAA (for two months)

Rizz hinted to Chico Harlan yesterday that Jordan Zimmermann might be on his way back to Syracuse to start the season. I can understand fans wanting to see Flash Jordan on day one, but there are good reasons to want to hold him back.

First and foremost, there's the arbitration clock. The minute Zimmermann is put on the big squad, the clock starts ticking: three years to arbitration, six years to free agency. He turns 23 on May 23, so, assuming he sticks (and if he doesn't, this is all kind of moot), then he'll be hitting free agency for his age 28-29 season, right in his prime.

However, under the arcane rules of arbitration, if the Nationals wait until around May 23 or so to bring him up his arb and free agent eligibility will be pushed back a full year. So for the price of about 11 starts, maybe 65 innings, we get a full additional year of team control later on. Think of it as a trade with your future self. Would you trade 11 starts at age 22 for 30 at age 28-29? Methinks I would.

Some might say, "hey, it's just money! Who are you, Uncle Teddy's accountant?" But the reality is that even if the team ups payroll to $120 million a year, there's still a limit on how much to spend. I'm all for more spending, but not dumb spending, and it's dumb to spend in effect several million dollars to get 10-11 stars from a 22-year-old.

Second, there's the issue of his innings jump and injury risk. Last year he threw 134 innings. If we start him in the rotation from day one, he's going to be on track to throw over 160-170, assuming he pitches well. That's a dangerously large jump. But if you hold him back a bit you can bring him up around the time his arb date would push back and keep his innings jump to a less risky 20 innings or so.

Add in the fact that Jordan Zimmermann could be the Cy Young award winner, and we'd still be nowhere near sniffing the playoffs, and the value of 10-11 starts this spring is even less.

Rizz is thinking long term. The temptation would be to make a splash in the short-term and screw the long-term. But that's how we got in the situation we're in now. I'm glad that we now have a GM who, even though he's operating with no job security on an interim basis, is thinking about the long-term health of the team, not just tomorrow's headline.

Congrats, John Lannan!

A well deserved honor for John Lannan, who today was opening day starter for the Washington Nationals. Good luck. I'll be rooting for you!

A hat tip should also go to Dana Brown, who made one dandy of an 11th round draft pick back in 2005.

Finding a Trading Partner

Now two weeks from Opening Day, the Nationals are still sitting on far too many corner outfielder / first-basemen types. The candidates to trade are probably Josh Willingham, Nick Johnson, or Lastings Milledge. Austin Kearns is untradable because of the contract, Adam Dunn has to play at least a few months to drive ticket sales, and Elijah Dukes is still more valuable to us than anyone else given him risk/reward factor.

For the sake of this post, let's assume that it's Willingham who goes. Personally, he's the guy I'd want to trade, mainly because I still lust after a full season of Nick the Stick, and Milledge obviously is a guy who has a chance to be a factor long-term. Also, since Willingham was just traded we have some sense of his trade value. There's been a lot of chest-beating among Nationals fans (and groaning among the Marlins') about how little value they got for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham, but the reality is that if someone had offered more value, the Marlins would have taken it. Their track record for grading prospects is pretty darn good. P.J. Dean and Jake Smolinski became the #20 and #25 ranked prospects in the Marlins' very deep system, and although there are widely varying assessments of Emilio Bonifacio, he was traded straight up for Jon Rauch not long ago and at least some GMs still project him as a speedy, glove-first starting second baseman.

So evening all that out, let's assume that Willingham alone could fetch a low B-level prospect or a maybe couple Cs on the John Sickels scale. The ideal trading partner would be a contending team in need of a corner OF or 1B with a pitching or middle-infield prospects available. Here are some teams that jumped out at me:

Atlanta Braves
The Braves have one of the better farm systems in baseball, and, even after signing Garret Anderson, are in a pretty ugly state right now in the OF. They're banking on Jeff Francoeur, who was in Austin Kearns territory among the least valuable offensive cornder outfielders in baseball in 2008. If nothing else, Willingham could get 350 at bats platooning with the left-handed hitting Anderson and Casey Kotchman. If Anderson can't stay healthy (or stinks), he could become the first option in left.

We hardly need another outfielder and this is probably wishful thinking, but Gorkys Hernandez could make sense. He came to the Braves with Jair Jurrgens for Edgar Renteria and could be a true center-fielder to go with Dukes and Milledge down the road, or make one of them trade bait in the future if they all pan out. With Jordan Schafer and Jason Heyward ahead of him, he might be blocked in Atlanta, and it might be worth throwing in another guy to make it work. Otherwise, the Braves also have a whole slew of B-level pitching prospects, like Cole Rohrbough, Jeff Locke, Julio Tehran, Craig Kimbrel, Brett DeVall, Zeke Spruill, and Kris Medlen. Brandon Hicks, a 24-year-old middle-infielder with power, is another interesting name.

Arizona Diamondbacks
The Snakes badly need some more pop in their lineup. Willingham would represent an upgrade over Chad Tracy or Mark Reynolds (if Tracy could be moved to third). Eric Byrnes is probably done. They'd probably rather find a left-handed bat, but Rizz might be able to work something out with his old team.

Of course, their system isn't anything to write home about. Mark Hallberg is a 24-year-old second baseman who BA compares to Mark Loretta. Like the Braves, they have a batch of B-/C+ type pitchers who could be a match, like Kevin Eichhorn, Wade Miley, or Trevor Harden.

San Francisco Giants
No, they're probably not going to contend this year, but that never seems to stop Brian Sabean from acting like he's one or two pieces away, and Travis Ishikawa at first base just doesn't cut it.

You might not have noticed, but the Giants have built up a nice little farm system. Baseball America rated theirs the fifth best in baseball this year, and Keith Law had them at number nine. Ehire Adrianza is a soft-handed shortstop who fits Rizzo's affection for defensive middle-infielders. Otherwise, the Giants just keep stockpiling the power arms. Waldis Joaquin, Henry Sosa, Clayton Tanner, and Scott Barnes are a few.