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Our Washington Nationals now boast a .271 winning percentage and are on pace for a 44-118 record, which would be bad enough to rank them among the ten worst teams in the entire history of Major League Baseball.
Here's the current top bottom ten:
1. 1899 Cleveland Spiders: 20-134 (.130)
2. 1916 Philadelphia Athletics: 36-117 (.235)
3. 1935 Boston Braves: 38-115 (.248)
4. 1962 New York Mets: 40-120 (.250)
5. 1904 Washington Senators: 38-113 (.252)
6. 1919 Philadelphia Athletics: 36-104 .(257)
7. 1898 St. Louis Browns: 39-111 (.260)
8. 2003 Detroit Tigers: 43-119 (.265)
9. 1952 Pittsburgh Pirates: 42-112 (.273)
10. 1909 Washington Senators: 42-110 (.276)
Should the Scats lose to the Phillies again today, their winning percentage would fall to .265, good to tie the 2003 Detroit Tigers for the worst team since the '62 Mets. Should they lose today and get swept by the Giants, that would put them exactly on pace with those expansion Mets for the worst team in three-quarters of a century.
OK, I can't prove it, and I'm not sure how I'd even go about it, but I have to think that the Willingham-Kearns-Dunn outfield that Manny Acta is starting tonight has to be one of the worst fielding trios in history.
Let's go to the stats. We'll use UZR/150, the Mitchel Lichtman stat that tells us the number of runs above or below average that a fielder would prevent per 150 games. UZR (which stands for Ultimate Zone Rating) factors in range, throws, errors, and, for infielders, effectiveness at turning double-plays.
Here are the career UZR/150 scores for the Scats starting outfield tonight:
- RF Adam Dunn: -32.5
- CF Austin Kearns: -14.5
- LF Josh Willingham: -5.3
That's a total of 52.3 more runs allowed than an average outfield would allow over the course of a major league season.
For context, the very best hitter in baseball last season, Albert Pujols produced 68.9 runs above average last season, based on wOBA. The next best hitter, Manny Ramirez, was 56.3 runs above average offensively. The third best hitter, Chipper Jones, was 52.2 runs above average.
That's right. The third best hitter in baseball was no more above average than this group would be below over the course of a season.
Now I'll grant you there are some small sample sizes in play here. Kearns has appeared in center in only 60 games. Dunn has appeared in right in 101 games, and so far this year he's a mere -2.0 UZR/150 rightfielder (although last year in 23 games in Arizona he was a comic -71.4). It's possible that if you played them everyday they'd get better. Of course, it's also possible that they'd be worse.
Besides, there's a reason the sample sizes are small for these veteran ballplayers. Very few managers are foolish enough to play Kearns and Dunn in these spots.
And this with a 22-year-old flyball pitcher on the mound. The day after Ross Detwiler was betrayed by half a dozen gift hits that would have been outs with even decently ok fielding behind him.
Seriously, if anyone wants to click around on Fangraphs.com to find a trio of outfielders who has started for any team ever with a worse combined UZR/150, let me know in the comments. I'd be curious to see.
Scott Olsen is eligible to return from the DL before Ross Detwiler's next start. He may need a little more time to regain arm strength (such as it is), but as soon as he's ready, the team should send Detwiler down to Syracuse to perfect and gain consistency with his delivery. Yeah, Detwiler's been a big upgrade over Olsen, who is terrible, but you have to prioritize the long term. And it's just hard to learn mechanics and compete at the major league level at the same time.
So now's a good time to evaluate Detwiler, and I for one am pretty pleased with what I saw. In his three starts and 15 innings, he has struck out 17.7% of batters faced while walking 7.4%. Command in the past has been his problem, those rates will do just fine.
His 4.80 ERA is a bit unlucky, brought down by a 61.2% strand rate (70% is typical) and some terrible defense, especially against the Phillies Friday. Looking at the advanced metrics, FIP has him way down at 3.63, but xFIP says 4.59. By my eye, he deserves something in the middle, around 4.00.
His biggest test came Friday in Citizens Bank against the Phillies. It looked pretty ugly in the box score, but he really pitched pretty well.
He showed off excellent fastball command, and I especially liked how he pounded guys in (Utley and Howard in the first, Werth in the 3rd, Howard and Ibanez in the fourth). His fastball sat comfortably at 91-92, topping out at 93.
He also threw his good, slow curve consistently for strikes. It's a very good pitch; Fangraphs' "pitch type linear weights" says the curve as been 6.71 runs better than average per 100 pitches. That's a ridiculous number skewed by small sample size (Johan Santana's change is 2.60 runs above average per 100 pitches, for comparison). Still, it's a very good pitch, and it's especially tough on lefties. Against the Phillies, Utley, Howard and Ibanez all struggled with it. J.A. Happ looked silly against two knee-blucklers in the second. (One question though--why do scouts call it a 1-7 curve? Isn't it more properly called an 11-5 curve, since he's a lefty? But I digress.)
He flashed the change only a couple times on Friday, getting a strike on a good one to Ruiz in the second but giving up a double to Rollins on another in the fourth when he left it up in the zone. It's a developing fourth pitch, something he'll need to get through line-ups three times, and good example of why he's better off pitching at AAA, where he can work on weaknesses in his game.
He actually gave up a lot of flyballs, and it seemed like he wasn't throwing his heavy two-seamer much. He has a 42% flyball rate overall at this point, and that's not his game. That's a pitch he'll need and another priority for focus at AAA.
The reason his box score looked so ugly is that he was vicitimized by at least four gift hits:
- The Rollins double leading off the first should have been a harmless chopper, but it went over Zimmerman's head because he was playing in (despite the fact that Rollins never bunts right-handed).
- In the second, Guzman made a poor throw on a weak Werth grounder. He also should have gotten to the ball faster if he had charged a little more. It wasn't an easy play, but an average big leaguer makes it.
- Ruiz's double in the second, which was a really weak swing on a nice slider away, glanced off Dunn's mitt and should have been caught. It was a tough play for him, but an average right fielder makes that play look easy.
- Utley's double in the third was badly butchered by Willingham. Again, it wasn't exactly a routine play, but an average LF makes that play.
He did make some mistakes. He hung a curveball to Ibanez in the third, which was an RBI single and could have been more. Feliz's triple was a bad pitch, fastball up, and Maxwell did well to even get a glove on it. And as I noted above the Rollins double was an elevated change.
But overall, Detwiler really deserved to finish the fourth inning down no more than 2-1. Facing the world champs in a bandbox, there's no reason why this game should have been remembered as anything but a success for Ross.
The other take-home point from a game like this is that Rizzo's top priority going forward has to be to upgrade the defense. Over the next two years, with so much good, young pitching coming up, they have to give these kids more help. In my mind, that means assuming Dunn is a fixture that Willingham has to go. But however you solve it, you have to solve it. I don't see how you successfully transition an entire rotation of kids to the majors while forcing them to get 4 outs every inning.
From Baseball America's draft blog:
With their first few regular-season starts in the independent American Association, Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers have solidified their position in the upper half of the first round.
Crow hasn’t allowed a run in his first two starts for the Fort Worth Cats, striking out 13 in 11 innings and retiring 31 of the 38 batters he’s faced. His stuff has been nearly as good as it was when he starred at Missouri last spring—and good enough that he could go as high as No. 3 to the Padres or No. 4 to the Pirates. He’s believed to be seeking at least the $4 million his advisers, the Hendricks brothers, asked for at the Aug. 15 signing deadline last year.
"He looks just a tick behind 2008, almost like he’s in the middle of spring training," an American League front-office official said. "I’ve seen him flash 95 mph with his fastball, and I’ve seen him flash a hard, 87 mph slider. He’s just a little inconsistent, but he’s not far away. And physically, he looks better than ever."
It's looking increasingly likely that Crow's big bet--to walk away from the Scats' $3.3 million and roll the dice on the 2009 draft--will pay off. Even with the economy, if he goes 3 or 4, he's going to come out ahead on the draft bonus. And he'll have the peace of mind of knowing that he's not going to the lousiest organization in baseball.
It's been a while since I posted an update on our friendly Nationals blogger league. As a reminder, the league is a weekly head-to-head roto league and includes me, Dave and Cheryl from Nationals News Network (each with their own team), Kristen from We've Got Heart, Sean Hogan from DC Sports Plus, Hendo from Nationals Pride, and then a couple kinda-sorta-sometime bloggers, TJ from VORP 10 Engage and Kenny from the Musings of Kenny G (dudes, you guys gotta start posting something or else we're going to have to out you as former blogger dudes).
The big story is that Kristen is in the process of finishing her last-to-first rally behind the hot hitting of her Zimmerman and Dunn-led squad. She's in the process of wiping the floor with my team, which had been perched in first place for a few weeks running.
Here are the overall standings at the start of this week:
1. FJB (60-31-7)
2. We've Got Heart (52-39-7)
3. Dave @ Nationals News Network (49-40-9)
4. Cheryl @ NNN (48-46-4)
5. VORP 10 Engage (42-47-9)
6. Kenny G (39-52-7)
7. DC Sports Plus (34-51-13)
8. Hendo's Hutch (35-53-10)
One of the reasons I've tended to be a Manny Acta fan over the last few years has been his avoidance of a class of one-run strategies--plays like sac bunts, the hit-and-run, and stolen bases, which can increase the likelihood of your team scoring one run but decrease the likelihood of a big inning by giving away precious outs. Overall, one-run strategies (really these are tactics, but I digress) result in fewer runs scored total and are best avoided.
There are situations where these one-run strategies are the right plays, usually very late in very close games. Also, these plays are more advantageous when your offense is weak. If your hitters have a low on-base percentage or don't hit many homers, the sacrifice is less damaging because the opportunity cost is less. And if your bullpen is a lock-down group, then taking the safer path to a one-run lead makes sense, even if you foreclose the chance of a bigger lead.
On the other hand, if your hitters get on base a lot and hit a lot of homers, the last thing you want to do is to take the bat out of their hands by giving away outs. And if your bullpen is full of arsonists, then you need to always play for the the biggest leads possible.
So given all that, why on Earth is Manny ramping up his use of one-run strategies now, just as he finally has a pretty good line-up but an historically bad bullpen?
Let's look at Sunday's game, when he sacrificed Cristian Guzman in the bottom of the seventh with runners on first and second, no outs and the Scats down one.
Here's the summary of Manny's decision from Chico's gamer:
Take, for instance, Dunn's seventh inning, bases-loaded, game-saving bash. Two batters earlier, with men on first and second and no outs, Acta called for Cristian Guzmán to lay down a sacrifice bunt. The potential benefits made the choice seem obvious: Advance the runners, take the out and let the heart of a resurgent Nationals batting order come through.
But Acta also had to consider that he was taking the bat out of the hands of Guzmán, who entered the game batting .357, and he was opening first base, which would allow Baltimore to intentionally walk Ryan Zimmerman, who was batting .348. Plus, the Orioles could bring in a left-hander to face Dunn, a left-handed batter. Lefty pitchers typically perform better against lefty batters.
Last season, Acta said, he probably would have let Guzmán swing away. These days, though, he can afford to set off such chain reactions. Guzmán moved the runners over. Zimmerman took his free pass to first. The Orioles brought in lefty Jamie Walker. And on a 2-2 slider, Dunn crushed the ball into the left field bullpen, providing the margin for the Nationals' 8-5 victory.
"It's just a different story," Acta said. "You want to walk Zimmerman? Good, then pitch to Dunn. That's something we didn't have here in the past."
OK, so I realize that this worked out for Manny in this case. (Give me credit for not just arguing 20/20 hindsight!) But let's say Dunn strikes out here, which, for all his wonderful power, we know he's done more often than anyone in baseball over the last five years (despite Boz's erroneously calling Dunn "double-play prone," this in fact isn't the main concern--Dunn strikes out so much that he isn't that much of a GDP risk).
Now it's bases loaded and two outs, the Scats still down one. Josh Willingham due up. OK, he's hitting a healthy 110 OPS+ this year, so we still have a decent chance. We'll say he gets a base hit. Run scores, tie game.
Next up you have the horrid trio of Ronnie Belliard (OBP .221), Austin Kearns (.146/.226/.208 in his last 53 PA), and Wil Nieves, followed by the pitcher's spot. This firewall of automatic outs basically ensures that there will be no big inning. Unless Dunn comes through with an extra base hit, the Nationals will very likely end the seventh tied or maybe up one.
By sacrificing Guzman and setting up the Zimmerman walk, Manny took a prime situation for a big inning--two men on, no outs, and the heart of his order due up to face a bad Orioles bullpen--and turned it into a make-or-break at bat for Dunn.
Dunn came through and bailed out his manager. Good for him. Still, Manny's call was the wrong one.
And then perhaps more troubling is the fact that, as he says himself, he wouldn't have done this in past years when he had much weaker hitting teams and better bullpens (at least in 2007; 2008 was pretty bad). This is the exact opposite of what he should be doing. With more power, he should be hoarding outs and baserunners, waiting for Earl Weaver's best friend, the 3-run homer.
What bums me out most about this isn't just that he's making dumb decisions now, but that he doesn't seem to understand why he was right to avoid one-run strategies in the first place. It's looking more and more like the reasons I liked Manny in the first place weren't really there.
Chico says that the inevitable has come to pass, and Daniel Cabrera has been designated for assignment. Chances are he's a former National, though if he passes through waivers and accepts an assignment to the minors, he theoretically could stay in the organization.
I'm glad to see him go. I don't think he's any good, and I think there's very little chance of him getting better. Unlike the conventional wisdom, I think his problem is more a matter of physical talent than mental strength (being able to throw a ball accurately is a physical skill as much as being able to throw it fast). So bye-bye D-Cab.
But I wonder why Rizzo felt like he needed to add this gratuitous swipe as Cabrera departed:
"I was tired of watching him."
Hey, I was tired of watching him too, and I don't even get paid to do it. But that's a classless quote, the kind of disrespectful, mean-spirited thing that made Bowden persona non-grata among a lot of GMs over the years.
This isn't the first time that Rizzo has taken an unnecessary swipe at a player on his way out. Remember what Rizzo said about Steven Shell when he shit-canned the guy despite his 50 innings of 2.16 ERA service to the 2008 Nationals:
"I just didn't like the way he was performing," Rizzo said. "I didn't like the mindset on the mound and off the mound and the preparation for the game and just the whole aura behind him on the mound."
Hey look, Shell's nothing special. It's totally defensible that Rizzo dropped him. Rizzo hates flyball pitchers. Shell was a Bowden guy. So we're moving on. Fine.
But why is it necessary to question his preparation, "mindset," and "aura." What does that even mean?
Ballplayers hang around the league. We may never want Steven Shell back, but maybe Shell's friends with Chone Figgins or John Lackey from his days in Anaheim, and they take offense after reading the quote in the paper and decide that DC is off their list of possible free agent destinations. Or maybe Shell's agent represents our tenth pick in the draft. Is there any situation where unnecessarily alienating people is helpful?
I'm still rooting for Rizzo. He's doing enough good things that I'm not down on him overall. But I hope he can cut this kind of thing out of his routine. It's not helping him or his team.
Complete game for Livan Hernandez. Regression to the mean sure is a bitch.
On May 5, Shairon Martis had a coming out party of sorts, throwing the first complete game for a Washington pitcher since I think Walter Johnson, allowing just one run on five hits, no walks, and five strikeouts.
At the time, I cautioned against drawing too much from that particular start, mainly because I felt Martis was benefiting from an enormous strike zone called by Angel Hernandez, who seemed to be trying to finish the game in record time to avoid the rain that was in the forecast for about 4 pm that day.
Then, he followed up that start with a decent 5.1 inning, 3 ER performance and then another gem, going 7 innings against the Giants while allowing just one run on two hits, four walks, and two strikeouts. That was his fifth win of the season and third in a row, and a buzz started to grow. Earlier this weekend, Tom Boswell even threw Martis's name out there as a possible rookie of the year candidate.
This was a pitcher who since I first saw him last fall I'd pegged as a future middle-relief guy, certainly not the kind of pitcher who should be in the rotation for an average team, much less a contender. A little over a year ago, prospect maven John Sickels had him as our #17 prospect, behind the likes of Adam Carr, Jake Smolinski, and Glenn Gibson. He never made the Baseball America top ten list in any year. I wasn't alone in thinking maybe it was time to reassess.
Then, in his last two starts, Martis has gotten beaten up badly by two of the weaker hitting teams in the league, allowing a total of 10 runs in 12 innings against the Pirates and the Orioles. His ERA is up to 4.86, and there's nothing unlucky about that number, judging by his 4.71 FIP and 5.55 xFIP (two advanced metrics that isolate peripheral stats to project a "deserved" ERA one you strip away effects outside a pitchers control like fielding and luck).
So what do we have here? Was I right to be skeptical of the Wowin' Curacaoan? Is he just a young pitcher hitting an inevitable rough patch on the way to a solid career? Or is he reverting to the sub-replacement form that he showed in his cameo late last season?
The biggest concern in his numbers is his strikeout rate. Before 2008, he'd never really shown big swing-and-miss stuff (remember, he was traded by San Francisco for Mike Stanton once upon a time, and the Giants are pretty good at finding young pitchers). The big breakthrough last season was that he suddenly seemed to have broken through to a new level. With a developing change-up, his K-rate in 41.2 AAA innings exploded to 9.07 per 9, and in 20.2 big league innings that rate jumped all the way to 10.02 per 9. Those are big-time numbers, though he was walking far too many and showing worrisome flyball tendencies.
This year, the strikeouts have vanished, falling to 4.19 per 9. For context, only six ERA title-qualified starting pitchers in 2008 whiffed batters at a lower rate than Martis has this year: Livan Hernandez (3.35), Aaron Cook (4.09), Paul Byrd (4.10), Jon Garland (4.12), Zach Duke (4.23), and Kenny Rogers (4.25). That's a list of pitchers who are either extreme groundball guys (Cook, Garland, Duke) or basically replacement-level scrubs (Livo, Byrd, Rogers).
Martis however is a flyball pitcher; 42% of batted balls against him have been hit in the air so far this season. His command is better, but at 3.52 walks per 9, it's just ok, not an asset.
Then, in his last two starts, Martis has gotten beaten up badly by two of the weaker hitting teams in the league, allowing a total of 10 runs in 12 innings against the Pirates and the Orioles. His ERA is up to 4.86, and there's nothing unlucky about that number, judging by his 4.71 FIP and 5.55 xFIP (two advanced metrics that isolate peripheral stats to project a "deserved" ERA one you strip away effects outside a pitchers control like fielding and luck).
Looking at it another way, in six of his nine starts, he has left the game with a team win probability in the negatives, meaning that regardless of what his W-L record says, two-thirds of the time he's done more harm than good to the team's prospects of winning.
You can survive and even thrive as a flyball pitcher in MLB, but your strikeout rates have to be above average, somewhere at least north of 6 per 9, and your walks have to be closer to 2.5 per 9. With his current rates, he's just not going to continue to succeed enough to justify his rotation spot.
Is there room for him to get better? Martis is operating basically a three-pitch guy. His low-90s fastball is a good pitch to work off of, but it's not an out pitch. His change up and slider are both decent but not great pitches. His curveball is a minus-pitch, and he's basically stopped throwing it.
If he has all three pitches working, I tend to think his strikeout rates will rise into the mid-6s, and he can maintain enough to be a 5th starter on an average team. Basically that would make him Jason Bergmann. To be any better than that, however, he's going to need to come up with something we haven't seen yet.
Dearest Bergy,
As your unapologetic biggest fan, I'm so glad to see you back with the Nationals and having success.
I know, Mike Rizzo hates you, Manny treats you as a mop-up man despite the fact that you've been more effective than pretty much anyone else in the bullpen. It's more or less inevitable at this point that barring a Rizzo firing your career will have to continue somewhere else.
Still, even if the team doesn't know it, at least this blogger knows that you belong on this team. In fact, no team in baseball is more in need of your particular brand of solidly unspectacular below-average adequacy. Yeah, you'll crap the bed every three or four times when you struggle with command, have a couple flyballs float out, and/or face a particularly tough run of left-handed hitters.
But it's absurd that you ever trailed the likes of Wil Ledezma, Logan Kensing, Daniel Cabrera, Scott Olsen, Kip Wells, or Mike Hinckley on the depth chart.
So until Rizzo finds another hard-throwing groundball pitcher with no command whatsoever, we're glad to have you.
Sincerely,
FJB
There are certain things you just don't do as a major league GM. You don't lie to your players. You don't compare the players' union to al Qaeda. And you don't overpay for relief pitching.
I know it's hard for us Scats fans to hear this just now, what with our historically intolerable bullpen and all. But to trade Nick Johnson for Manny Delcarmen would be just crazy.
Hey, I'm the guy who hit the panic button when we let Jesus Colome go because I could see this year's bullshitpen implosion coming back in December. I'm not saying you don't invest in relief pitching at all. Jeremy Affelt, Bob Howry, and Juan Cruz would have been good, smart investments this off-season. Add them to Beimel, Hanrahan, and Bergmnn and you have a damn good group for a reasonable price.
But individual relief pitchers just aren't that valuable, mainly because they don't pitch that much. In Delcarmen's best year he was a 1.5 wins above replacement player. Nick's given us a full win over replacment this year alone. In his best year, he was a 5.3 wins above replacement value.
They also aren't reliable from year to year, other than the very best of the best. We've seen that here in DC over and over. And honestly they aren't that hard to come by (I know, I know, it doesn't feel that way now, but...). You can take a fifth starter and turn him into a serviceable relief pitcher anytime. The average starting pitcher converted to a reliever will see his ERA improve by about a run. Now, our starters are pretty awful too, and the near-total absence of replacement-level major league-ready options within the organization is an indictment of Bowden's regime.
Nick's contract is up at the end of the year, and personally I'd like to see them re-sign him. Aside from the newly broken out Zimmerman, he's the best player on the team. Yes, yes, the injuries. Whatever. There are very few players on all of baseball that could ever produce a 5.3 wins above replacement value, and Nick's one of them. With Dunn in left, we have the perfect in-house plan B in the event Nick misses time.
Regardless, Nick for a reliever shouldn't even be a thought.
Update: Here's what Rizz said today on the matter, which I like: “He’s an extremely valuable player to the Nationals. We need him here, we like him here and we want him here," Rizzo said. "If someone overwhelms us with a deal that we can’t refuse, of course we’re going to listen to a deal about Nick or about anybody else. But he’s an extremely valuable player for us."
Hopefully the rumors were just that.
Jesus Flores is hearing footsteps. Derek Norris makes the Baseball America Hot Sheet two weeks in a row:
Why He's Here: .423/.483/.769 (11-for-29), 2 HR, 3 2B, 9 R, 5 RBIs, 2 BB, 4 SO
The Scoop: While many Nationals fans are probably counting down the days before the teams gets to draft Stephen Strasburg, Norris is at least giving them something to tide them over until the big day. Norris recently had a streak of six straight multi-hit games and his mature approach has impressed all season as he's hitting .325/.420/.619 while ranking third in the Sally League with 20 walks. He also ranks second in the league with nine home runs on the year and is tops with 30 RBIs.
If you've been a fan of my detailed series and game previews, I'm sorry to disappoint you, but they take too much time.
The Scats are 55-107 in their last 162 games played. This year, they are on pace for 116.3 losses. Today, they risk getting swept at home by a team on pace for their 17th straight losing season.
Click here to check out my preview on the Bucco's hitters and bullpen. Here's my preview of the Pirates starting pitcher and prediction for the finale.
On the Mound
Ian Snell: Snell is a little guy (5'11", 190 lbs.) who throws hard and can't find the strike zone with both hands and a Geiger counter. In 2007, he was looking like the next big thing with a strikeout-to-walk rate of 2.6:1. This year, it's down to 1.2:1 with a ballooning walk rate of 5.36 per 9. That's not quite Cabrerian, but bad. He throws a fastball, slider, change and curve.
When he was at his best, the fastball and slider are the best pitches. His ERA is 4.93, but he's been even worse than that with a FIP of 5.48. It's a sign of the state of the Pirates franchise that with all his troubles he hasn't seen AAA since 2005.
Fearless Prediction
Season Record: 25-12
Rookie Craig Stammen debuts. He's neither ready nor really very good, and the bullshitpen will have to pitch at least 4-5 innings even if Stammen is as good as can be expected. Bucs get the sweep, 8-5.
It's bad enough Charlie Slowes has to watch the Scats every night from a booth about 10,000 feet above sea level. Tonight he mistakenly called the game-ending flyball out as a home run, and then as the broadcast cut to commercial he could be heard very clearly saying "shit" into the live mic.
I thought it might be time to re-post this from a Jim Callis Q&A in January. Just in case you were wondering...
Rich (Columbia, SC): 2010 Draft question - I know it may be a bit early, but who do you project as the top 5 players for the 2010 MLB draft? Any clear-cut #1 (like Strasburg)?
Jim Callis: Too early to do project a top five with much accuracy. The leader to go No. 1 overall right now is North Carolina RHP Matt Harvey.
And then Callis said this the next week:
Had they been eligible, where would San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg (the probable No. 1 pick in 2009), North Carolina righthander Matt Harvey (the probable No. 1 pick in 2010) and Las Vegas High catcher Bryce Harper (the probable No. 1 pick in 2011) have ranked on your Top 100 Prospects list?
J.P. Schwartz
Springfield, Ill.
One of these things is not like the others. Strasburg might be the most anticipated pitching prospect of the decade, more than Mark Prior or David Price. Harper might be the most anticipated high school hitting prospect I can remember, more than Alex Rodriguez or Justin Upton. Harvey is a prime candidate to go No. 1 in 2010, but he's not in the class of Strasburg or Harper.
Orioles catcher Matt Wieters and Rays lefty David Price are the clear top two prospects in baseball, and after them, there's little consensus as to who should rank No. 3. If they were eligible—we consider only professional players affiliated with major league organizations for the Top 100—Strasburg would rank No. 3 and Harper would rank No. 4.
Some scouts might take Strasburg over Price, and it's possible to argue that Harper could match Wieters' offense while providing better defense. However, Wieters and Price have established a high level of performance against a much higher level of competition, and I can't put a college junior or a high school sophomore over them at this point. When I did a story asking player-personnel experts how they'd stack up Price vs. Wieters Premium, most believed it's harder to find a catcher than a No. 1 starter. I'll still take Strasburg over Harper, because he'll make a near-immediate impact in the majors and Harper is still 2½ years from pro ball.
I like the top pitcher in the 2008 draft, Orioles lefty Brian Matusz, more than Harvey, and Matusz ranked No. 25 on the Top 100. Harvey would fit more in the 35-45 range, somewhere between pitchers Derek Holland (Rangers, No. 31), Wade Davis (Rays, No. 32), Jordan Zimmermann (Nationals, No. 41) and Tim Alderson (Giants, No. 45).
Followed by this:
Following up on the question from the last Ask BA discussing Matt Harvey as the leading candidate to go No. 1 in next year's draft, could you predict the top five picks for 2010? Your comment on Harvey makes me think it's not going to be a stellar draft, but maybe I'm just comparing everyone to Stephen Strasburg.
John Davis
Washington D.C.
The 2010 draft isn't stacking up as a stellar draft. Harvey is the projected No. 1 overall pick at this point, and he's not in the same class of a David Price or Matt Wieters from 2007, a Tim Beckham or Pedro Alvarez from 2008, a Strasburg from 2009 or a Bryce Harper or Gerrit Cole from 2011. He's not having an inspiring sophomore season (3-1, 5.32) at North Carolina, and Duke just shelled him for seven runs in two innings yesterday. His delivery isn't the prettiest, either, but scouts still love his fastball, curveball and body (6-foot-4, 225 pounds), so he's still the top candidate.
Let's get this out of the way: booooooo!!!!!
Click here to check out my preview on the Bucco's hitters and bullpen. Here's my preview of the Pirates starting pitcher and prediction for the finale.
On the Mound
Paul Maholm: Maholm is a groundballing lefty who operates in the high 80s with good command and low strikeout rates. He's benefited from low BABIPs for the last season-plus, but regardless he's a solid mid-rotation guy. He and Lannan are actually quite similar pitchers, though Maholm's a little better.
Fearless Prediction
Season Record: 24-12
I didn't get a preview up yesterday because of a minor child-rearing emergency. So from here on out my record will be one game behind the team's in the number of games played.
Anyway, how can you pick this team to win any games at this point? Sorry Lannan, I'm calling it Buccos 7-5.
That's the latest from ScatsTown. Remember folks, we're playing the Pirates. At home.
And my quick reaction to other news...
- 13 pitchers: it's the right thing to do.
- Detwiler's second start: it's not the right thing to do.
- Dukes to the DL: no choice adding the 13th pitcher.
- Jason Bergmann up: never should have been down in AAA in the first place.
- Alex Cintron down: should just be released.
- Justin Maxwell up: he's not doing that well in Syracuse, and he needs to play every day. Ryan Langerhans would be a better choice.
"Long time" Nationals Journal readers (like, those from 2007) will remember a certain episode where Barry Svrluga said something snarky about the Nationals on a chat (I don't remember exactly, and I'm tool lazy to find the link, but I clearly remember that it was something pretty mild), and Stan Kasten sought him out, yelled at him, and then iced him out for the rest of the year.
Well, I can assure you that if Stan is still screaming at critical beat-writers, Chico Harlan couldn't care less. He just doesn't pull punches, period. And he's developed a memorable rhetorical device where he opens each game story with a little flourish of mockery directed at the disaster he's paid to cover in great detail each day.
Today's gamer, re: Detwiler, had one of my faves:
To honor the occasion, and to ease his initiation, they gave him a locker between fellow starters John Lannan and Shairon Martis. They set up his family and friends with tickets behind home plate. And, just to make him feel extra-comfortable, they furnished him with the exact sort of defense and relief pitching you might well find in the Eastern League.
Fire Manny. Fire St. Claire. Fire the whole bullshitpen (again!). Fire Clint. Fire Debbie Taylor. Fire those kids running the bases yesterday (they were dogging it!!).
And don't let them quit and blame the media either. I want them FIRED.
No, Alex Cintron didn't get a hit. Cristian Guzman walked. Hallelujah.
After dropping four straight to one Keystone State franchise, we get the other. The Pirates will set an all time record this year with their 17th consecutive losing season, but truth be told they are probably closer to being good than the Nationals. Certainly they're doing more interesting things in their rebuilding, moving aggressively internationally, investing in the top talent available in the draft, and flipping veterans like Jason Bay and Xavier Nady for a whopping eight young players, most with at least some upside potential.
Here's my preview on Pittsburgh's hitters, bullpen, and game one starter.
When the Pirates Are Up
--"Gold glove" centerfielder Nate McLouth (he is in fact a very bad fielder) had a huge breakout season last year and has continued it this season. He long profiled as a fourth outfielder, but in the last two years his power stroke has exploded with Brady Anderson-esque fashion. He's reasonably patient and doesn't strikeout much, but he still struggles quite a bit with lefties. He also is an incredibly efficient base-stealer, succeding in 62 of 67 attempts for his career.
--Slappy hacker Freddy Sanchez is a case study in the randomness of batting average. He has no power at all and never walks, but is very hard to strike out. In 2006, he won a batting title with a fluky .370 BABIP. That number regressed all the way to a fluky low .292 last year. This year, he's back at .360 and looking again like a batting champ. Not all this is randomness, as he had a shoulder injury in 2007 that affected his ability to drive the ball and has seen his line drive fall since 2006 (though it's not up at all this year). Also for his career he has a pretty big platoon split, hitting lefties much better. I tend to think the real Freddy Sanchez is the guy who appeared headed for utility-infielder-dom a year ago.
--Notorious slow starter Adam LaRoche is finally off to a good start, and that could mean a very big season is in the offing. He's a powerful lefty slugger who strikes out quite a bit.
--Left-fielder Nyjer Morgan is a fourth outfielder who's playing every day only until Andrew McCutcheon comes up and McClouth can slide over to left. He has no power at all and actually strikes out quite a bit, but he is very fast and plays very good defense.
--Brandon Moss, part of the Jason Bay booty, is getting the chance to start for the first time in his career but isn't doing much with it. He's a corner outfielder with modest power, and this year his approach at the plate has taken a turn for the worse, with his walk rate falling all the way to 4.7%. So far this season he's been arguably the worst starting position player in baseball. He is generally regarded as a good fielder.
--Third-base prospect Andy LaRoche, more of the return on Jason Bay, was horrifyingly bad last season after he came over from the Dodgers in the three-team deal, posting a .152 / .227 / .232 line over nearly 200 plate appearances. He had a good spring, but slumped again as soon as the season started (he didn't have a hit until the 8th game of the season). Now, he's finally picking it up a little, getting on base at a .376 clip since that first hit. Still, he's shown very, very little power, and he has some work to show he belongs in the bigs.
--Jack Wilson is one of the Pirates' affirmative action "all-stars" and is kind of the face of a franchise defined by mediocrity. At 31, he doesn't have any power at all, and he never had any kind of on-base skills. The good news is that he gets hurt a lot.
--Robinzon Diaz and Jason Jaramillo are a righty/switch platoon of middling prospects, both on their second organization. Jaramillo is a patient walks machine, while Diaz is a hacker with good contact skills. Neither has much power to speak of. Ryan Doumit is out till probably July.
On the Mound
Ross Ohlendorf: Part of the return from New York in the Nady trade, Ohlendorf is a sinker-slider guy who mixes in a change as his third pitch. He can throw in the 93-94 range, though his velocity has been down a couple ticks this year, and his strikeouts have declined with it. He's got high groundball rates, which usually leads to a higher than average BABIP, but so far this year he's enjoying an unsustainable .244 BABIP, which has given him a tidy 3.77 ERA. He's done a better job consistently giving the team innings, which is one of the things they were looking for from him this year.
He projects into either a back-end starter or a good Luis Ayala-type reliever. Tomorrow he should be plenty hittable, especially for the lefties.
In the Bullpen
The Pirates bullpen has been a below average but not putrid unit. Their ERA is 4.76, 12th in the NL, but they've stranded 72% of inherited runners, 4th best in the league. Their win probability added as a group is -1.85, again bad but not crippling.
The closer is Matt Capps, who has a big arm and closer stuff, but may be falling victim to the Saul Rivera/Luis Ayala/Jon Rauch pattern of overuse. His ERA is 7.50, and his walks have skyrocketed. Tyler Yates is also used late in games. He's a hard-throwing fastball-slider guy who the Braves gave up on last year. He also is walking far too many. is on the DL. Tom Gorzelanny, who seemed a promising starter in 2007 before completely losing the strike zone, is up in his place. Sean Burnett is the LOOGY. He's got a very lucky 2.95 ERA that is nearly two runs below his fielding independent ERA.
Fearless Prediction
Season Record: 23-13
It's hard to expect Detwiler to going more than 5, and it could easily be less. That means half the game will be covered by the bull(shit)pen. Hard to bet on that. Pirates push us down a little deeper, winning 5-4 in comeback fashion.
Third base coaches are like offensive linemen, computer servers, and city government. You only really only notice them when they screw up. Nobody's noticed new third base coach Pat Listach much this year, and that's good.
Baseball Reference this year is for the first time tracking baserunning data that allows us see exactly how good teams have been at "taking the extra base." These tables, available on every team and player page in the section called "Baserunning & Misc. Stats," as well as the league pages, tell us how often a runner advanced more than one base on a single or two bases on a double, when possible. I simply added a column to the spreadsheet to show how often the runner disappears from the basepaths (a.k.a. gets thrown out) which you can check out here. My tables are sorted by the percentage of the time that runners made outs while trying to advance.
On average in 2008 runners "took the extra base" 39% of the time, while making outs 2.5% of the time. The goal of course is to take the extra base as often as possible while basically never making an out. Except in extreme late and close situations, the cost of getting caught trying to advance in terms of run and win expectancy is so much greater than the benefit of advancing when you're already by definition in scoring position that the number of tolerable "caught advancings" is exceedingly low, essentially zero. That's why the league average 2.5% "caught advancing" rate is so low.
So far this year, the Nationals have made exactly zero outs while trying to take the extra base. It's early yet, but there are only two other teams in baseball, the Cubs and the Dodgers, that have this distinction. At the same time, the Nationals have taken the extra base 41% of the time. So they're being a touch more aggressive than average while never getting caught. That's exactly what you want.
Last year, with the much-maligned Tim Tolman as third-base coach, the Nationals were tied for 24th in baseball making outs 2.8% of the time. At the same time, we took the extra base 36% of the time, tied for next-to-last. Only the bopping, station-to-station Red Sox took the extra base less often.
Obviously we're dealing with small sample sizes and exceedingly tiny margins of difference. The gap between the best and worst teams in baseball in these categories represent fractions of wins. And if the Nationals get thrown out twice tonight, they'll plummet to the bottom of the rankings in no time.
Regardless, after suffering through some agonizingly ugly outs at home plate last year (and having so little else to enjoy), it's worth a moment to note that so far our third base coaching appears to be in very capable hands.
Nationals try to avoid the sweep after a disastrous Olsen-Cabrera bumble-header that was every bit as ugly as it was cracked up to be. Actually, it could have been worse. An uncharacteristically long hook from Manny, three generally ok innings from Garrett Mock, and Mother Nature saved the bullpen. A decent start today from Zimmermann, and we'll be pretty well rested.
The Nationals now are 11-24. They're on pace for 51-111, which would tie them with the 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks for the third-worst record in MLB since the 1962 New York Mets lost 120. Only the 112-loss 1965 Mets and 119-loss 2003 Detroit Tigers were worse. Only 15 teams in the century-plus history of MLB have lost 111 games or more in a season.
The worst team in the history of the Natspos franchise was the 1969 expansion team, which lost 110. The worst team in Nationals/Senators Washington baseball history was the 1904 Senators, who went 38-113. If you're wondering about the very worst team ever, there's no chance. The Cleveland Spiders of 1899 went 20-134, a .130 winning percentage. Ten Eleven more wins, and we got that beat.
OK here's my preview of the Phillies starting pitcher and prediction for the finale.
On the Mound
Chan Ho Park: The pitcher who always makes me think of Ponch and John and the good old days of the California Highway Patrol isn't having such a good season. Park arrives with a 6.00 ERA and has just 19 strikeouts against 13 walks in 33 innings.
Last season was a comeback year for Park, who previously seemed like he was probably done as a major leaguer. He saw his fastball velocity suddenly jump up to 92 after spending years operating around 89. This year, he's back at 88, and moving from the pitcher's park in L.A. to Citizens Bank isn't helping much either. (Sound familiar Ranger's fans?)
Even in his salad days he was never a big command guy, but if he keeps the ball down and pitches to contact he might be able to provide replacement-level performance, the theory goes. Look for a lot of off-speed junk and hard-hit liners.
Fearless Prediction
Season Record: 23-12
At blogger night yesterday at Nationals Park I heard some concern about Jordan Zimmermann and his 5.90 ERA. Fear not, Scats fans. We knew there would be some bumps. Here are the numbers you should be looking at: 26 Ks and 8 BBs in 29 innings.
He's getting hurt on the long ball, and part of that is learning to pitch. But it's a good sign that he's attacking big leaguers and showing no fear. His strength is that he has four very good pitches. None of them are dominating though, so even more than most pitchers, he needs to learn how to pitch, not just throw. Unlike a David Price he can't just go out there and rely on one or two deadly pitches. But that's ok. Zimmermann's repertoire will hold up as well or better over the long haul as he figures it all out.
The Nationals should win this one fairly easily, as Zimmermann is overdue for some better luck and Park is as hittable as they come. And it's looking like we even have some nice northern Wisconsin weather for Flash Jordan. I'm calling a 9-4 Nationals victory.
Well I sure didn't see this coming. MASN says it'll be Ross Detwiler taking the start Monday.
With four games in two days, we need another arm. (Yes, I know we need more than one, and we needed them about a month ago, but I digress.) Rizzo is reaching past a group that's been pretty effective at Syracuse to tap the sixth overall pick in the 2007 draft.
The lefty Detwiler certainly fits the profile of a Rizzo crush. He's a big arm with big groundball rates. And command problems. His stock fell last season with a pretty brutal first month at high-A Potomac. He bounced back to post a 3.85 ERA after July 1, but for the season his overall ERA was still way up at 4.86, which translates to a major league equivalent of 5.74 (that's what his '08 performance would translate to at the big league level). His problems last year were pretty obvious, as he walked 4.14 per 9.
He struggled to adjust his mechanics as the Nationals worked with him to not throw across his body as much. In the Arizona Fall League, reports were that his delivery looked much better, and he walked four in 11.2 innings. This year, promoted to AA Harrisburg, he's got his walks down to 3.29 per 9. All along he's had big strikeout numbers and groundball rates.
He has two plus pitches, a two-seam power sinker and a four-seam fastball. His curveball and change-up are developing off-speed pitches with the potential to be plus offerings as well.
If things have clicked for him, it's not hard to imagine him being a fast riser and performing at a high level right now. There's a reason he went #6 overall, and 23 isn't all that young.
Still, it's surprising to see him here so soon. And it's worrying, since it feels like they're trying to create buzz, which may not be the best thing for his development.
Personally, I think I don't like this. It'll make Monday more interesting viewing. But I'd still rather they called up J.D. Martin (Yeah, yeah 40 man roster. Whatever. Just dump Dmitri Young.)
P.S. I found this guy pitching in indy ball down in Texas who looks pretty good. I wonder if he's available?
Word from Nationals Journal is that Scott Olsen is having an MRI and might be is headed to the disabled list. If that's true, the net outcome is a move that should happen anyway. Scott Olsen simply is not a major league-caliber starting pitcher.
Olsen after today's 8-5 loss to the Phillies now has a 7.24 ERA. His strikeout rate is down to 14.6%, well below the 21.8% he had in 2006, his one and only season as an effective major leaguer. His fastball today topped out at 86, down from an 87.8 mph average in 2008 and 90.9 in 2006. He can no longer get major league hitters out with his stuff.
Maybe the MRI will finally reveal what's wrong with him, since his velocity has been in steep decline for a couple years now. If so, it probably means the team has wasted a couple million and three C+ type prospects on a washed up 25-year-old.
The question of course is what do you do now. We know Rizzo won't go to Jason Bergmann because he hates flyball pitchers, but as long as he's at Syracuse you can't say there aren't options. J.D. Martin I think is an interesting case we picked up from Cleveland last off season who I wrote about as a dark horse going into spring training. He has a 2.88 ERA and a wicked 22:2 K:BB ratio in 25 innings. Craig Stammen is turning heads with his 1.80 ERA in 40 innings for Syracuse, but with only 14 Ks in 40 innings pitched you have to wonder whether he has the stuff for the next level. Then there's ol' Collin Balester, who was looking like he was coming around until a 7-run, 3-inning performance Tuesday. Marco Estrada's another option, and he's got the groundball rates Rizzo likes.
And then there's the matter of the trades that still haven't happened. With the glut of 1B/corner OF types, Rizzo I think has to find a way to get something back. It was reported by Jayson Stark before the season that the Rays dangled Jason Hammel for Josh Willingham. Hammel since was flipped to Colorado, and there's no reason the Rockies would be interested in Hammer, but if this is a gauge of Willingham's trade value, it seems like Rizzo should be able to turn him into something passable.
(Interestingly, that same Stark column reported that the Angels had inquired about none other than Scott Olsen, tossing around names like Dustin Moseley, Shane Loux and Jason Bulger.)
And of course a good debate can be had about which pitcher is worse, Olsen or Cabrera. This post is not intended to pick a side in that debate. Neither should be in the big leagues as far as I'm concerned.
This month's right track / wrong track poll saw fan optimism fall to 40%, though the poll was running at about 33% until the Zimmerman hit streak put people in a better mood. I'm frankly impressed that there are still 4 out of 10 of you feeling good. A hearty, resilient bunch, we Scats fans.
The new right track / wrong track poll is now open. The new poll will be up till June 15.
The Nationals face a Scott Olsen-Daniel Cabrera double-header tomorrow after using every relief pitcher in their pen en route to a 10-6 loss in 12 innings. Once again there's rain in the forecast, so maybe Mother Nature will intervene. If not, you might want to grab any Phillies hitter you can get in your fantasy baseball league.
Here's my look at the Phils' starters and predictions. You can check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on their hitters and bullpen.
On the Mound
Brett Myers: For the second time in three weeks we get one of my favorite pitching match-ups: Brett Myers vs. Scott Olsen, what I like to call a knuckle-header.
Wife-beater Myers is a groundball pitcher who throws a straight four-seam fastball, sinking two-seamer, curve, slider, and occasional change. The curve is his best pitch.
Myers has struggled with velocity and the long-ball in the early going, a re-run of what the Phillies saw in the first half last season before he was sent down to the minors to get things straightened out. He was very good down the stretch last year, but this year it's been back to bad Brett.
In his last start, his fastball velocity was back in the low-90s, which is where he needs to be to be successful. Who knows why Myers's fastball seems to come and go, but if it's back, he can once again be a solid #2 starter, which the Phillies desperately need.
Andrew Carpenter: A 24-year-old righty with all of one Major League inning under his belt (he loaded the bases on a hit and two walks, one intentional, but escaped without a run), Carpenter doesn't appear to have much of a future in the big leagues. Rated as the Phillies' #22 prospect by Baseball America, he's had problems with poor conditioning and a hittable high-80s fastball. His best pitches are a slider and a change-up, and he'll occasionally throw a splitter.
His stuff isn't very good, but his command isn't that good either. He's striking out 6.03 and walking 3.93 per 9 for the Iron Pigs so far this year en route to a 4.72 ERA, which is a tick lucky according to his 5.93 FIP. Chances are we'll see plenty of Jack Taschner after Carpenter hits the showers.
Fat, right-handed, soft-tossing junkballers don't usually thrive at this level.
Fearless Predictions
Season record: 22-11
If Olsen's really hitting his spots, he can be effective for short stretches. We know he lacks the talent to maintain that pin-point command consistently, but you see it in stretches. Manny desperately needs one of those spells of Moyer-ness from his nicotine-addled soft-tosser. However, if Olsen's off, Manny will have little choice but to let Olsen twist in the wind as long as it takes to get at least 6 innings. I tend to think Myers will be ok this year, and I expect him to pitch well tomorrow. Game one could be ugly. I'll predict an 8-3 Phillies win.
The Scats should be able to earn the split however by beating up on Carpenter and a Phillies bullpen that's been much more hittable this year than the shut-down pen that helped them win it all last year. My guess: Scats, 7-5.
Before Opening Day I offered my guidance as a Hill dweller on the best carry-out/carry-in dining options near the stadium, but none of them are quite as convenient as the new bar and restaurant opening up nearby called "The Bullpen." The Post's review was mixed, but we'll see. In any case, you don't want to walk into any major league ballpark hungry or thirsty. So have a few on the way in, pack a lunch, and keep the costs your ballpark experience reasonable.
Phillies and Joe Blanton? Shoot, I previewed this exact match-up two weeks ago. You can check it out here.
The Phillies are skidding at bit, having lost 6 of their last 8. Carlos Ruiz is back, and Scott Eyre is back to being the guy who can't find the strikezone. Other than that, I don't have much to add.
So with that, on to the...
Fearless Prediction
Season Record: 21-11
Lannan's strung together some nice starts and has his ERA down to 3.89. He's elevated his groundball tendencies to new heights, generating 58.2% on balls in play this year. Still, his fielding independent ERA has always been higher than his actual ERA because he's consistently had a lower-than-expected BABIP. This year is no exception, as he's got a .289 BABIP so far, which is low especially for a groundballer. But you gotta wonder if maybe in his case for some reason he's able to sustain a lower-than-normal BABIP? He's got a career 17.9% line-drive rate, which would rate among the best in baseball most years. This year, that number is down at 16.4%.
This honestly is a tough game for me to call. The Phillies are a so much better team, but they're slumping. Lannan always seems like he should be a good match-up for the lefty-heavy Phils, but his numbers don't really bear that out, as he has a 6.23 ERA against them career. Then there's the matter of Joe Blanton's terribleness, countered by the Scats' bullpen. I just don't have a real good feel for this one.
I'll say the Phillies take it by beating up on our 'pen again, something like 7-5.
I did a Q&A on the Scats with Phillies blogger Bill Baer over at Crashburn Alley. Check it out here.
I've saved this little rant since I didn't want to rain on the fun, and Zimmerman clearly deserves the national attention that he's getting, but hitting streaks are stupid.
OK, they're not totally stupid. It's kind of a curiosity when a guy can get hits in many games in a row. But the way baseball fans and (mostly) media act like hit streaks are some grand achievements attributable to great skill and not (mostly) randomness is just weird.
Plus, if you are going to focus on streaks like this, why wouldn't you hype "on base" streaks? The guy reached base twice today and scored a run. Why is that regarded as a fruitless day? Joe DiMaggio reached base in 74 straight games, including his record hit-streak. The Baseball Reference "streak finder" goes back to 1954, and in that time Orlando Cabrera has the record with 63 games in 2006. But generally the record is neither recognized as significant nor conclusively known.
Aside from that, I have to say it was pretty dumb when Bruce Bochy intentionally walked Zimmerman in the 7th inning. Runners are on second and third, one out, and the Nationals are leading 2-0. At this moment, the Giants' win expectancy is 13.4%. Bochy walks Zimmerman to get to Josh Willingham and Elijah Dukes. By doing this, the Giants' win expectancy actually falls to 12.9%. The Nationals run expectancy for the inning started at 1.42 with one out and men on second and third. With the bases juiced, that number rose to 1.58.
There are situations where it would make sense to intentionally walk the bases loaded, but that requires a much more significant drop-off in the effectiveness of the batter you're walking and the batters you're choosing to face.
In The Book, Tom Tango, Andy Dolphin and Mitchel Lichtman calculate us the "break even points" for this difference between a hitter and the guys following him and when the IBB starts to be advantageous for the pitching team from a win expectancy point of view. Down 2 in the top of the seventh with runners on second and third, the ratio of the hitters' wOBA and the weighted average "teammate wOBA" of the three men following him must be at least 1.20.
Zimmerman was to be followed by Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes, and Austin Kearns. Zimmerman is currently sitting on a .430 wOBA, which is extraordinarily high, almost equal to what Manny Ramirez did in 2008, and it's not reasonable to expect him to maintain that going forward. ZIPs just released their updated projections for every player in the league posted at Fangraphs, and they expect him to post a very good but not MVP-caliber .370 wOBA over the rest of the season, which seems reasonable (think Prince Fielder in 2008). Based on that, you'd need the hitters following him to average less than about a .308 wOBA (think Brian Schneider's '08). Willingham, Dukes, and Kearns are a lot better than that. It's not even close.
OK, but you say, Zimmerman's hot. If he's a .430 wOBA hitter so far this season, we should treat him as such. This is kind of silly, playing into a kind of gambler's fallacy that just because the ball has landed on red three in a row, it's sure to land on red again. We know that Zimmerman isn't Manny Ramirez, regardless of what the small sample size says.
But whatever, let's consider this. To make the IBB make sense for a .430 wOBA hitter, you'd need to the weighted average of the three guys following him to be less than .357. The ZIPs "rest of the season" projections for the Willingham/Dukes/Kearns trio gives you a teammate wOBA of exactly .357. So it's basically a wash, and you ruined everyone's fun.
Now, let's do the same calculation using their actual 2009 wOBAs. The Willingham/Dukes/Kearns trio this season combines for a weighted teammate wOBA of .346. The drop-off is mainly because Willingham and Dukes are both off to somewhat slow starts; Hammer in particular is 15 points below is career wOBA. Still that gives us a Zimm-to-teammate wOBA ratio of 1.24 (and remember, we needed a ratio of 1.20 to justify the walk).
So is that it? Have we cracked the Bochy code and proved that he did the right thing after all? Well, only if you completely ignore sample size, assume that Zimm will continue to vastly out-hit his historic performance levels, and Willingham and Dukes will significantly underperform theirs.
And I guess that's what we've learned here: Bruce Bochy (as well as Manny Acta, Dave Jageler, and Zimmerman himself, since they all said the move was a no-brainer) doesn't understand sample size.
I kinda like it when they're on the west coast, because I start watching, they're winning, it seems like they're almost surely going to win, then I fall asleep feelin' good, and yeah, at some point the next day I realize they blew it again, but it kinda feels like it happened a long time ago by the point, and still I got the enjoyment of going to bed a winner.
Here's my look at the Giants' game three starter and prediction. You can check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on their hitters and bullpen.
On the Mound
Barry Zito: Everyone who boo-ed the Lerners for not breaking the bank on free agents, behold Barry Zito.
Actually, the lefty's off to a pretty good start this year (nothing to justify that contract, but Giants fans are long past hoping for that). His velocity is up a couple miles per hour, and his command, which really slipped last year up to a Cabrera-esque 5.10 walks per 9, is back in a safe zone at 3.06.
He's known for his slow, looping curveball, but it's not what it used to be. He throws a two- and four-seam fastball, slider, and change. He's a flyball pitcher and doesn't strike anyone out. Eric Seidman recently noted that Zito has shown an ability to generate an unusually high number of infield flies when he's pitching at his best.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 20-11
Nationals avoid the sweep, 6-4.
One game against the Scats, and the Giants leapfrog over not one but two teams in runs per game. They are now ahead of both Arizona and San Diego, though in fairness the Padres haven't gotten to play us yet.
Here's my look at the Giants' game two starter and prediction. You can check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on their hitters and bullpen.
On the Mound
Matt Cain: The 6'3", 246-pound Alabaman is finally getting a little luck. After spending the last two seasons getting some of the worst run support and most undeserved losing record in baseball, Cain this season is off to a 3-1 start with a tidy 2.61 ERA. That's while posting a 4.93 FIP, grossly inflated 90.9% strand rate and unsustainably depressed .254 BABIP.
Cain throws a fastball that sits comfortably in the low 90s and can touch 96 when he needs it and big bending curve. He's developed a very good change-up as well. He has solid strikeout and walk rates and strong flyball tendencies, which are helped by he Giants good outfield defense. He has a tendency to go too deep in counts trying to strike everyone out, but he's as durable as they come, going over 600 innings in his first 3 major-league seasons.
Bottom line, Cain is one of the Giants' bumper crop of young aces that will be giving the NL West fits for years.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 19-11
Zimmermann has a solid bounce-back start, but it's Cain's night. Giants cool off the hot Nats bats.
Almost forgot to share. I went to my first game in Philly this past weekend. Yeah, I know, they weren't playing the Nationals, but I never seem to get around to going to a game at Citizens Bank, and we had some time to kill the day before Mom's Day.
The upshot is that no one gave a hoot about my Nationals hat.
For the second series in a row, we face a team that's last in the NL in scoring at the start of the series. Funny how Arizona lost that particular superlative as soon as we showed up.
Here's my preview on San Francisco's hitters, bullpen, and game one starter.
When the Giants Are Up
--The Giants are the most impatient team in baseball, having drawn just 71 walks so far this year. Their most free-swinging free-swinger is catcher Bengie Molina, who like Cristian Guzman hasn't yet drawn a single walk this year. (It'll be fun to see if he can keep it up against D-Cab.) He's actually producing pretty well at the plate, slugging .577 and destroying lefties. Unfortunately for the Giants, judging by his career numbers, his terrible OBP is likely to continue, while his .279 ISO power is overdue for a 120-point correction. And there are a lot more right-handed pitchers around than lefties.
--Venezuelan 3B/C/1B Pablo Sandoval is another swing-at-anything guy. He's also off to a decent start, hitting .298 / .336 / .462, but he's a little more likely than Molina to maintain his current pace. He's just a rookie, but he's showing the rare bad-ball hitting ability that allows some guys to succeed despite awful strike zone command. Dude can hit, especially left-handed.
--Things are not going nearly as well for the rest of the Giants' hackers. First-baseman Travis Ishikawa actually was a pretty patient hitter in the minors, drawing walks in over 10% of his plate appearances across AA and AAA last season. However, handed the starting 1B job this year, he's lost his way at the plate, walking just 4.2% of the time, and his power has vanished completely as well, not coincidentally. The Giants have benched him for the moment, but since their options are either a) Rich Aurilia or b) playing Sandoval at first and starting Jose Uribe at third... well, it ain't pretty. How about Josh Willingham for Henry Sosa?
--All you folks who booed the Lerners for not signing more free agents, behold Aaron Rowand. Rowand was as highly regarded as any free agent in the '07-'08 off-season, and he's been decidedly awful. Five years, $60 million. And he's only just begun to decline.
--On April 29, 2007, Randy Winn was caught stealing. Since then, he's been successful in 43 of his last 45 stolen base attempts. That's really pretty incredible. Sadly, he's making outs more than 70% of the time he comes to the plate. He'd be quite an asset as a fourth outfielder on a good team.
--Left-fielder Fred Lewis is a speedster with modest power but good on-base skills. He swiped 21 bases with a 72% success rate last season while swatting 11 triples in 468 at bats. He's also a very good defender in left field. Still, he needs to hit for more power than he is (his SLG is lower than his OBP so far this year) to be an asset in left field. And at 28, he's not really that young. He's another every day player in San Francisco who's really better suited to a bench role, or at least a platoon.
--The Giants were hoping for a bounce-back year from 33-year-old Edgar Renteria when they foolishly handed him two years and $18.5 million. He'll never hit .322 again, since that came on a once-in-a-career .375 BABIP. So far this year is looking like a continuation of 2008. He's actually walking at a decent rate for pretty much the first time in his career, but his line-drive rate is way down. Hard not to think he's just gotten old. He was always a terrible fielder.
--DC-native Emmauel Burris is a slap-and-run guy. He's got good contact skills, speed, and he actually walks a little bit. So far this year he's getting on base at a .351 clip while stealing 9 bases in 12 attempts. He's only 24, and he can provide some value, especially with his excellent defense. It's just that if you're going to win with a guy like this at 2B, you need boppers at the classic power positions, and the Giants don't have any.
On the Mound
Randy Johnson: The Big Unit isn't close to the pitcher he once was, and he's always one more back issue from retirement. But he's still got plenty of heat. He's averaging 90-91 on is fastball, and there are plenty of lefties out there getting by with worse.
But for the first time in 17 years, the Big Unit is having command problems. He's walking 4.55 per 9, more than double where he's been almost every one of the last 10-12 years. Chances are he'll settle down and finish with a solid year (and 300 wins), but right now he's looking very hittable.
In the Bullpen
The Giants bullpen ERA is 3.88, good enough to tie them with the Dodgers for fourth in the NL. They've converted 64% of save opportunities and allowed 32% of inherited runners to score, which is about league-average this year, and their team win probability added is a just above break-even +0.35, which is good enough for fifth in this year's NL. Basically, it's a good, not great group.
Former Beach Boy Brian Wilson closes. He saved 41 games last year despite a slightly unlucky 4.62 ERA. He's a groundball pitcher with good, not dominant strikeout numbers. Free agent lefty Jeremy Affeldt throws hard and gets a lot of grounders. Strangely, he was used as a mop-up man by Dusty Baker this year, but he's succeeding in a much higher-leverage role this year. Bob Howry is bouncing back after his round 2008 and more or less reminding everyone that a 70-inning sample size isn't enough to write off a relief pitcher with a track record of success.
If you're wondering about bullpen solutions, Affeldt and Howry are two guys that Bowden could have had cheap.
Fearless Prediction
Season Record: 19-10
The Nationals have yet to win a game started by Daniel Cabrera. Not that this is totally his fault. He's left the game with leads twice and a tie score once in six starts (which is more than I can say for, oh, let's just say Scott Olsen for instance). Still, the fact remains.
Most troubling here is that the Nationals are in the midst of a 6-game stretch against the two worst offenses in the league, and although they took 2 of 3 from the D'Backs, the bullpen is burnt. They desperately need a couple good 7-innings-plus starts, and if they can't get it against these teams, they won't get it anywhere. I plead with Manny to let D-Cab throw 120 pitches tonight unless he absolutely falls apart. It's the only reason he's here, and if you're going to cap his pitch cound at 92, you may as well have signed Randy Johnson.
I'll go out on a limb and say the Nationals win one here. Cabrera's wildness matches up well with the Giants' hackery. And our bats are hot. I'll say Nationals, 6-4.
C'mon, Rizz. Certainly Alex Cintron's gotta go. The guy's OPS is 178 points less than Daniel Cabrera's. And Logan Kensing? 15.43! That ERA is almost more than Scott Olsen's and Saul Rivera's combined! That's almost as bad as being like 7 minutes late! Maybe even 10!
Not much time to chat today, with Mom's Day festivities. Here's my look at Arizona's game three starter and prediction. You can check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on their hitters and bullpen.
On the Mound
Max Scherzer: The former Missouri Tiger and Ft. Worth Cat (the same path from college to indy ball before MLB taken by Aaron Crow) is a power arm with a mid-90s fastball and a plus slider. He also throws a change-up, mainly against opposite-handed hitters. If he can command the slider, he'll be tough. If he can't, then he'll be hittable.
He's also heterochromatic, meaning he has one brown eye and one blue eye.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 18-10
D'Backs, 6-2.
The Nationals go for three in a row tonight in Phoenix. Game starts at 8:10, so you may have a chance of seeing the whole thing.
Here's my look at Arizona's game two starter and prediction. You can check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on their hitters and bullpen.
On the Mound
Doug Davis: One of the most durable pitchers around before he was diagnosed with thyroid cancer last season, Davis is a soft-tossing lefty with good command and a willingness to challenge anyone. His best pitch is a curveball, and his fastball averages around 84-85 mph.
Bottom line, he's solid option as a back-end starter, no more. This year, he's got a nifty 3.52 ERA over 38.1 innings, but that's on an 87.1% strand rate and .261 BABIP, which is especially low for a groundball pitcher like Davis.
Still, you gotta root for the guy, even when he's going against the Nationals.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 18-9
D'Backs, 6-4.
Here's the latest:
Shairon Martis: 3.0
Jordan Zimmermann: 0.6
John Lannan: 0.4
Shawn Hill: 0.2
Scott Olsen: -4.9
Daniel Cabrera: -5.1
Background: Shawn Hill finished (?) this season with a Value Over Replacement Player of 0.2. (VORP is a composite counting stat that measure's a pitcher's overall contribution compared to the average AAA call-up.) The Shawn Hill Challenge asks whether the Nationals were correct, beyond any measurable doubt, to choose the five guys they did over Hill, injuries and all.
The Nationals arrive in Phoenix to face the lowest scoring offense who happen to play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. I guess that's part of why they have a new manager starting today. "Melvin" is no kind of name for a leader of men anyway.
Here's my preview on the D'Backs' bats, bullpen, and game one starter.
When the Diamondbacks are Up
--After a couple false starts, it may be Justin Time. Justin Upton, the top under-22 bat in baseball, has his wOBA up to .405 on the season despite a slow start. On April 24, he was hitting .184 / .279 / .263. Since then, he's hitting .383 / .453 / .809, and his strikeout rate has fallen through the floor. He has power that makes Dukes look weak. If this is a sign that he's figured it out, he could be an MVP candidate this year. OK, maybe next.
--On the other hand, we have Chris Young, who is hitting a little like the other Chris Young. Since he hit 32 dingers as a rookie in 2007, his strikeout rate has gone nowhere but up. His strikezone command is terrible, less because he swings at so many balls out of the zone (at 22%, he doesn't really) but because he watches too many pitches go by in the zone. I wonder if he got screwed up trying to be a lead-off man. Whatever, right now he's a pretty easy out.
--Mark Reynolds is a whiff machine. He K-ed 204 times last year and 36 times already this year. Then again, he's gone yard 7 times and has a .520 SLG. On the other other hand, he doesn't walk enough to make up for his lack of contact and have respectable on-base numbers, and he's a rotten fielder.
--Dang! Why is FLop good again all of a sudden? Felipe Lopez has a .357 BABIP. His Ks are actually up. He'll regress.
--Another former National, Josh Whitesell just got called up and is getting starts ahead of Chad Tracy, who has been eroded by injuries into not much worth having. In the minors he's walked a lot, hit a lot of homers, and struck out a lot. Maybe he's a late-bloomer. Might have been useful for the 2007 Scats, but not so much this year's version.
--The guy who Daron Sutton annoyingly insists on calling "Co-Jack," Conor Jackson doesn't hit for enough power to give you the kind of offense you need to win from LF or 1B. He was a pretty tough guy to strikeout though, at least until this year. So far he's been one of the least valuable position players in baseball (better than Eric Byrnes though).
--Augie Ojeda's been a rotten substitute for Stephen Drew, but then again he's not supposed to play every day. He's actually a good contact hitter and plays a good shortstop. Not a lick of power, but we can't all have everything, now can we?
--The catching platoon of Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero gives Arizona two starting-caliber catchers. Both have good pop, Snyder's a better defender, but Montero's a better hitter overall. Snyder's also another one of the D'Backs off to a terrible start.
On the Mound
Yusmeiro Petit: Right-handed pitchers who top out under 90 don't usually succeed very well in MLB. In fact, the almost never do. Petit has a deceptive delivery and good command, but he's in over his head starting games at this level. At 3.92 walks per 9, his command, usually his strength, hasn't even been all that good. He'll throw a bunch of off-speed jumk up there, and the Nationals should hit lots of it.
In the Bullpen
Games' about to start, so you're gonna have to wait till tomorrow. (Sure is a drag on my part.)
Fearless Prediction
Season Record: 17-9
I still worry about Shairon Marits's command. I know, it's been ok so far. The 4.60 ERA is pretty solid. Still...
The Scats should win this game if Martis doesn't beat himself. I think there'll be a reminder or two that his last start was as much a function of Angel Hernandez demanding a 2 hour and 30 minute game with his sprawling strike zone as anything. But I think we win this one with plenty of fireworks on both sides. Let's say 8-5, Nationals.
Me, I fell asleep still down 6-4. Ouch! Here's the recap. Don't miss this play by Willingham. And of course this happened in the first.
I always knew, looking at Manny's bodybuilder's physique, that he was on the juice. Can't believe it took y'all so long to realize it.
Here's my look at L.A.'s game two starter and prediction. You can check out my preview of the series here for breakdowns on their hitters and bullpen.
On the Mound
Randy Wolf: Last season saw Wolf start 30 games for the first time since 2003. In the interim, the lefty bounced through 4 franchises and had an assortment of elbow issues that culminated in 2005 Tommy John surgery, the legacy of overuse at the hands of Terry Francona way back when.
This season, he's building on his big comeback, pitching better than he has in a half-dozen years. He's striking out 7.61 per 9 and walking just 2.95, ratios that evoke a bygone era when people used to use the names "Randy Wolf" and "Cy Young" in the same sentence.
He doesn't throw hard--his fastball sits at 88 mph. He has a big slow curveball, change, and slider. He's a flyball pitcher, which works fine when you have his strikeout numbers and walk rates. Replacing Manny with Juan Pierre will at least help his BABIP.
Fearless Prediction
Season record: 16-9
The Dodgers are nowhere near the same team without Manny Ramirez as they are with him. Last year, before Manny arrived, they were scoring 4.17 runs per game, fourth worst in the NL ahead of only the Pads, Giants, and Scats. After, they jumped to 4.63 runs per game, a huge impact for one player. Now, he's replaced in the line-up by Juan Pierre, a difference of 100 points of wOBA in almost every projection system. That's a massive, massive drop-off.
Given that the Dodgers are getting lousy production from James Loney, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, and Russell Martin, they can ill-afford to lose another bat. And it's fair to assume that without Manny's protection that guys like Orlando Hudson and Matt Kemp may suffer as well.
Add in all the distractions (and Ron Villone!), and all of a sudden this becomes a very winnable game for the Scats. I say Zimmermann hand-cuffs the Manny-less Dodgers and the Nationals win 4-2, adding fuel to the media firestorm around the Dodgers.
D-Cab is getting pummeled over at Nationals Journal today. I can understand it. I never said he was good, and he's a damn frustrating pitcher to watch.
But what's annoying me is that people are still talking about Cabrera as if he's some potential superstar who just lacks mental toughness. This analysis has been out of date for at least 3 years.
Cabrera is a really tall guy who like most really tall guys isn't all that coordinated. There's a reason that 7-footers are usually not very good free-throw shooters and ball-handlers. Watch him hit. He has about as much natural body control as I do. Yeah, there was a time when the could throw hard, but even that hasn't been the case for a while. As for his command, he just doesn't have any. Never has. Expecting him to suddenly start pounding the strike zone makes about as much sense as expecting Nook Logan to start hitting tape-measure homers. He can't do it. Not won't. Can't.
D-Cab is sitting on a 4.85 ERA (which is quite a bit better than 6.54, if you're looking for starting pitchers to rail about). That's a little lucky, but it's also a little better than what we had any right to expect. He's really doing exactly what anyone should have expected when we signed him, nothing more nothing less. If he was better than this, he would have gotten more than $2 million.
The biggest problem with Cabrera is that Manny's taking away his main virtue, his durability. This is a guy who has averaged 99 or more pitches per start since his second full season at 24. This year, Manny hasn't let him go past 94 pitches once.
This less of a blog post and more of a therapy session. Here are my tips for how to follow the Nationals and still have fun. I'm sure you have your own; feel free to share in the comments.
1. It's not whether you win or lose, it's not how you play the game, it's whether your under-24 talent is showing progress
If you really take this to heart, the Nationals are doing pretty well this year. Ryan Zimmerman is off to his long-anticipated major breakout, Elijah Dukes is hitting and maintaining a clean rap sheet, Jordan Zimmermann is dealing, Jesus Flores isn't looking overmatched anymore, and Shairon Martis is in the process of once again forcing everyone to recalibrate expectations. Down on the farm, Chris Marrero is healthy and hitting again. Craig Stammen is having a breakthrough season. Derek Norris is showing last year was no fluke. Danny Espinoza is getting some deserved hyping. Even Ross Detwiler's strung together a few good starts.
Really, the bullpen is the easiest part of the team to build up quickly (or see fall apart in an instant). Daniel Cabrera and Scott Olsen don't belong in a winning team's rotation. But so what? This year doesn't matter. It's about the future. Keep telling yourself that every day.
The trick here is that you have to keep this in mind not only when the Scats lose, but also when they win. If you let yourself get excited about wins, you will get bummed about losses. But try to think of it like an NFL pre-season game. You don't really celebrate the wins or mourn the losses, but if that 4th round back shows some explosiveness you've never seen before or your 31-year-old cornerback is proving that he can still keep up, then you're happy.
2. Root for nice weather
I know, we haven't really had that yet either, but I really promise there will be some nice days at the ballpark.
3. Pick a favorite player, and only pay attention to him
I strongly discourage choosing anyone other than Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson or Elijah Dukes.
4. Pick a scapegoat, and focus your frustrations on him
I know, my therapist wouldn't like this one. But really, there are so many people associated with this team that are surely to be out of baseball in no time. For me it was Bowden. For Needham it was Lenny Harris. JayB has Lastings Milledge. Wily Mo Painful was a popular choice last year, as were Felipe Lopez and Paul Lo Duca. Then when those guys all were put out to pasture, you felt good all day.
Bottom line, if you pick out a little part of this team that you are actively rooting against, then your odds of getting what you want are dramatically improved. The risk here is that less obsessives around you may not quite understand the importance of having coping strategies and might just find your schadenfreude off-putting.
5. Get back at the guys up top
Look, there's plenty of blame to go around, but we all understand who's fault this is. It's Mark Lerner. He picked Bowden. He's bottom line on the payroll. He's the boss, and the buck stops there.
So hit him where it hurts. Now, I would never condone stealing, per se. But it can feel good to circumvent their efforts to lighten your wallet. As fun and poetic as it sounds in a Don Delillo novel, I don't really recommend old-school turnstile-jumping, especially when you can buy $5-10 seats and then sit right behind the Nationals dugout (ticket discipline--the term of art in the industry, I'm told--is almost non-existent these days). Smuggle beer into the stadium (I could fit a whole six-pack into the bottom of a diaper bag and never get caught in 81 games). Never ever buy food at the stadium (carrying in food is officially ok by Nationals Park policy, and I really can't understand why anyone ever shows up at the game without stopping at Five Guys first). Slingbox MLB.tv. Buy from a scalper (that's the only way to make sure your baseball spending will get reinvested in the local economy anyway). Or, my favorite, make a special point of taking the train to see the Scats play in Philly once or twice a year just to spite Stan. And make sure that you spend a bundle at Citizen's Bank--that'll really show 'em!
Hey, I don't have any special love for David Montgomery or the Phillies' owners, but if the Scats want my money, then they need to spend it on getting first round picks signed. That's the deal. If they want to hoard their vast loot, I can hoard my little bit. When they provide a product worth what they're charging, I'll happily pay full fare.
