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Well, there you have it. Courtesy of Harlan:
"We are not tearing this thing down to the foundation and rebuilding it," he said. "We have a good core of young major league starting pitchers. We've established a good inventory of power arms in the minor leagues. We have a good core of controllable, talented position players, two of them being Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn. ... We are not rebuilding. This is a team that, in my opinion, is not far away from being a good, solid baseball team."
Blogger shakes head, sighs...
This right here is the core of the problem, and it's the same problem that this team has had since November 2004. It's the number one reason that they will likely be losing 100 games a year four or five years hence.
They are over-evaluating their own talent. They think they are "not far way," but in fact they are further away than any team in baseball.
I have to wonder, does Rizzo really think this? Does the talent evaluator who found Brandon Webb in the eighth round really believe that his team, on pace for 50 wins, is "not far way?"
Another thing I wonder is, "not far away" from what? From contention? Certainly no one in their right mind can believe this. From .500? Well, it's pretty hard to imagine how they think that's true either.
The Nationals, of course, are the worst team in baseball. Yet, look at all the things that have gone the Nationals' way this season:
- Josh Willingham is putting up near-MVP numbers at .300 / .410 / .586. Prior to this season his career average was .266 / .361 / .472.
- Jesus Flores is the only player, including Nick Johnson, to miss any meaningful time with injury.
- John Lannan is beating the tar out of his 90th percentile PECOTA projection of 3.40 ERA and 156 IP.
- Craig Stammen is whipping his 90th percentile PECOTA projection of 4.74 ERA in 113.7 IP.
- Adam Dunn is having the best offensive year of his life, hitting .276 / .405 / .554 and setting career highs in all three categories.
- Nyjer Morgan has put together one of the hottest hot streaks of his career since coming over, hitting .404 / .429 / .515 compared to a career line of .304 / .362 / .398.
- Ryan Zimmerman has broken out, upping his wOBA from .336 to .357.
Now, it's well documented that the Nationals are nine games behind their projected won-loss record by run differential. But still, that puts them at just 41-61, still one of the worst teams in baseball.
They do have some bats, it's true. Enough to be 22nd in runs per game in MLB.
Their pitching, meantime, is horrendous. The "good inventory of power arms" in their minor league system is more hype than reality. After Jordan Zimmermann, there isn't an impact arm anywhere in the organization. Stammen and Lannan are great stories, but they're both pitching over their heads right now. If they're your #4 and #5, they might be part of a contender, assuming you have a true front end.
So where do they get improvement next year? Who's going to be better? Most of the key contributors mentioned above are likely to be worse, especially the 30-year-old Willingham and Dunn. Of all their position players, only Zimmerman and Flores could be said to be improving. Elijah Dukes would be a third, but it seems clear that the team has no use for him.
Drew Storen might be ready to contribute out of the bullpen. Then of course there's Stephen Strasburg, if the team decides that it won't "damage the parity of all baseball" to sign their top draft pick once every couple years.
After that? Anyone? I guess they'll probably non-tender Scott Olsen, and that should help a little. But this team is on pace for a Pythagorean record 16 games below .500. I defy anyone to identify 16 games of improvement internally. And that's just to get to .500. Forget contention.
In 2005, Jim Bowden believed he had a real contender on his hands, despite a run differential that said otherwise. He refused to rebuild.
He said at the end of last season that if the Nationals had been totally healthy they would have between .500. (Of course, 25 other teams would be in the playoffs if they could count on perfect health.). He refused to rebuild.
Now, on track for back-to-back seasons with the worst record in baseball, they're still not rebuilding. What's that saying about first in war, first in peace? Some things never change, I guess.
Ahhhhhh!!!! End the madness!!!
It's become a virtual folk legend around these parts that Jim Bowden did the right thing when he didn't trade Alfonso Soriano at the trade deadline in 2006, because when he signed with the Cubs we got two compensatory picks, one of whom became the eighth wonder of the world, the flow o' the century... oh it's timeless... HOVA!
Now I love Jordan Zimmermann as much if not more than anyone. Josh Smoker is an utter flop, but there's little question that Zimmermann is a more valuable player to the Nationals than Alfonso Soriano or probably anyone we'd heard about being offered in a trade.
NTP reminds us that the best offer that was rumored at the time was Soriano was Jason Kubel and Scott Baker. Now, make no mistake--Kubel and Baker are hardly chump change. Baker is a solid mid-rotation starter, and he would have been the Opening Day starter for the Nationals this year. And Jason Kubel has busted out this season with a monster .307 / .377 / .553 line that bests even Soriano's excellent 2006. Had JimBo made that deal, he would have done just fine.
Of course the team later denied that this deal was ever offered, and Dave Sheinen later reported that Kevin Slowey was the best offer, though it's not clear whether that was straight up. In any case, we don't know what the team was offered. Kasten insists they were offered less value than Jhonny Nunez, but what-ev... that lacks a certain truthiness.
If we assume though that Jordan Zimmermann is better than anything we were offered, shouldn't we conclude that Bowden did the right thing?
The answer is yes, but really it's no. Huh? OK, hang with me.
The key for any team is to focus on using good method and worry less about the outcomes. If you're using a sound process, including a smart overall strategy, considering the best data and scout evaluations, etc., then you're going to come out ahead more often than not.
Sometimes, you'll make the right decision and it won't work out. Boz is right--Strasburg could get hurt. That doesn't mean that if he gets hurt the Nationals were wrong to draft him. Or that if he stays healthy that means we were right. Drafting and paying for the best player available is the sound decision, so that's what you should do. You just have to accept that shiznit happens, and you can only control the things you can control.
Also, sometimes you make a dumb decision and you get lucky. Like not trading Soriano and hitting on Zimmermann.
Consider the list of #67 overall picks in draft history. Since 1980, you have Kurt Suzuki, Chad Qualls, and Wally Joyner. No other players drafted in that spot in 30 years had any kind of career on MLB, until Zimmermann. The history of the #31 pick (the Smoker pick) is a little better, especially with that guy Greg Maddux drafted by the Cubs in '84. But it's not that great. In 30 years, you have Maddux, Kirt Manwaring, Aaron Heilman, Jarrod Washburn, J.P. Howell, and a couple other marginal guys.
Those are bad odds. Much worse than the odds of grabbing Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, or Jason Kubel. Like choosing Rollins College, Bowden made a dumb decision and somehow it worked out for him anyway. But most of the time his methods resulted in Daniel Cabrera-type moves.
So when you're evaluating Rizzo or any other GM, focus on method, not so much outcomes. And be careful, when a team does something dumb but lucks out, chalk that up to good luck, and don't draw the lesson that it's good to be dumb and hope for luck.
P.S. Rizzo!! Take the Marlins deal for Nick!!!
Over the last week, we've seen unfold one of the most favorable trade markets for rebuilding teams seeking prospects in years. And what's most unusual is that aside from the Phillies the contenders have been flipping prospects for relievers and bats, not starting pitching.
Here are the most prominent trades that have gone down in the last week or two. In most cases, the team giving up the prospects overpaid.
That's not to say these are all bad deals for the contenders. The Cliff Lee trade probably makes sense for both teams, for instance. But despite all the talk of the economy putting a damper on trades, teams have been giving up very, very good value for in many cases very ordinary vets.
Take a look. Where relevant, the Baseball America prospect rankings are listed in parentheses:
- Tim Alderson (4) for Freddy Sanchez
- Daniel Cortes (3) and Derrick Saito for Yuniesky Betancourt
- Brett Wallace (2), Shane Peterson, and Clay Mortensen (6) for Matt Holliday
- Jeff Clement (1 in '08), Ronny Cedeno, Aaron Pribanic (27), Brett Lorin (28) and Nathan Adcock (24) for Jack Wilson and Ian Snell
- Scott Barnes (9) for Ryan Garko
- Josh Bell (8) and Steve Johnson (15) for George Sherrill
- Carlos Carrasco (2), Jason Knapp (10), Jason Donald (4) and Lou Marson (3) for Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco
- Brandon Allen (6) for Tony Pena
- Cole Gillespie (9) and Roque Mercedes for Felipe Lopez
So with all these good young players getting shipped around in exchange for guys who are a lot like the 30-year-olds we have declining on our roster, why aren't we in on any of this action?
Reports have been that the Nationals, like during the Jim Bowden error, have simply priced themselves out of the market and are without a chair when the music stopped. Rizzo evidently is trying to fleece someone when he should be just seeking solid value for a rebuilding effort.
In fact, there was a report from San Francisco that the Giants wanted Willingham but that Rizzo simply made him untouchable.
If true, I can't possibly explain it. We'll see what's happening today. Maybe Rizzo has the best deal yet up his sleeve. But more likely we're seeing one of the reasons why the Nationals will still be losing 100 games in 2011 and 2012.
I have nothing to say, I just wanted to use that headline.
Wow, Jim Riggleman really taught Joe West a lesson showing him up like that on the field. And boy did it inspire his men to fight hard to win. I'm personally moved by the passion and intensity that Riggleman showed arguing with the umps.
Er, nevermind.
Harlan says that Rizzo called Riggleman to pull Willingham from the lineup. It seems there's a trade in the works.
Best guesses? Detroit? Texas? Cubs? San Francisco? Atlanta?
My money's on Houston, and given Ed Wade's track record, I like our chances of winning a trade like that. Maybe Willingham for Bud Norris?
- Oops nevermind. I guess the new "plan" is to keep running out the same group of declining 30 year olds and hope for different results.
With the Nationals on the cusp of winning their third series in a row, the inevitable questions have to be asked.
Is the sudden turn-around the result of the firing of Manny Acta? Is Jim Riggleman making that much of a difference? Is it possible that this team would be 10, 15, or even 20 games better in the win column, if only they had fired Acta and put Riggleman in charge on day one?
Sorry, Fizzleman fans. The answers are no, no, and hell no.
First, it must again be noted that Riggleman has had the luxury of facing some miserable opposition. The Padres and Mets are AAA teams at best. The Brewers are now below .500, and their pitching is extremely suspect after Yovani Gallardo, whom they will see today.
Still, you say, this team has found ways to lose to bad teams all year. You can't take these wins away from them.
And I don't. Some of it is that the bats have heated up again. Riggleman didn't do anything to teach Josh Willingham how to hit two grand slams in a row.
Some of it is that that John Lannan is on a wicked hot streak, saving the bullpen and sending a positive ripple effect through the team.
Some of it is pure regression to the mean.
And indeed some of it is the managerial change, I suspect. Not that Riggleman is any better than Acta (he's not), but it's hard not to tune out a guy after this much losing. It doesn't matter that the losing is a function of the terrible roster. Acta's just too closely associated with too many bad things that have happened over the last two and a half years.
That's why I said at the time that it was time to liberate Manny from this dealth march. Riggleman won't say anything different, but hearing the same thing from a new voice can create a fresh perspective. Just starting fresh with a clean slate can create a short-term uptick in morale.
Is it a long-term solution? No. Is there any reason to think that things would be one iota different if Riggleman had managed from day one instead of Acta? I don't see that.
But unfortunately the narrative is set, and we'll probably have to live with it forever now. Acta was a push-over, and the team lost a lot. Then Riggleman yelled at them, and the team won more. Ergo, Manny sucked, and yelling works.
And now the only question is, is Riggleman tough enough, and if not, is Marlo Stanfield available?
Unfortunately, given the talent in the organization, there's still a lot more losing than winning in this team's future. And people tend to tune out yelling a lot faster than they tune out patient, rational level-headedness. The impressive thing is that it took two years of hopeless beatings for the team to quit on Acta. Put a screamer in there, and the team will be throwing in the towel in weeks, if not days.
Of course, that has little to do with Riggleman, who isn't a screamer, and is taking more or less the same relentlessly optimistic approach that Acta did. That doesn't really fit the narrative though, so that doesn't get mentioned much.
Oh, and there's one other thing that happened right around the time this recent hot streak started. Scott Olsen was lost for the season. Don't forget about that.
When was the last time you've seen so many top prospects change hands in such a short time? And here we are, sitting on a boat load of 30-year-olds with nothing to show.
The kicker came tonight: the Pirates just acquired top pitching prospect Tim Alderson for Freddy Sanchez. Freddy Sanchez. Really? We couldn't offer better than that?
Rizzo better have a huge coup up his sleeve, because if the trading deadline comes and we don't get in on any of this action, it's an epic fail.
Wouldn't it be more fun to write this post?
Seattle sends Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic, and Nathan Adcock to Pittsburgh for Ian Snell and Jack Wilson.
I love Jack Z., but I think he got took here. Guzman's a better hitter, and Wilson's a better fielder, but they're awfully similar.
I guess Zduriencik must have a big one for Ian Snell, so maybe we don't have anyone to match the value he sees there. But I have to wonder what subset of these guys would Z have given for just Guzman?
I had the same feeling after the Yuniesky Betancourt deal. I guess there's quite a market for below-average, $8 million shortstops. So how come we can't get something useful for ours?
Josh Willingham is in the midst of a career year. His trade value has been and never will be higher. There's never been a clearer example of a player that should be moved for prospects right now.
After Hammer's double-slammer, I'm reading a lot about how maybe we should keep him after all. It's an understandable reaction from fans. But it's wrong, and it's Rizzo's job to know better.
What exactly is the point of keeping him? Yes, he has two more years under team control, but he'll be playing on last place teams regardless. The Scats are at best two years from respectability, much less contention.
And, of course, he's solidly on the wrong side of 30. Forget this talk about him being a "young 30." Thirty is 30. He's having a career year this season, and usually that comes two or three years earlier, but regardless, his career is undoubtedly peaking now, and the only question is how fast and steep will he decline.
Some skill sets tend to age better than others. Willingham's (like Adam Dunn's) usually doesn't age very well.
The classic "old player skills," as defined by Bill James, are: power, walks, low average, and lack of speed. Players who exhibit these skill sets as a young player tend to age less well.
Sound familiar? Tom Brunansky is the classic young player with "old player skills." In Brunansky's age 29 season, he had an 11.3% walk rate, 22.2% K-rate, .164 ISO, and 5 SBs.
In Willingham's age 29 season, his last full season, he had a 12.0% walk rate, 23.4% K-rate, .217 ISO, and 3 SBs. He's Brunansky, except even more.
Here are Willingham's top PECOTA comps: Bubba Trammell (done at 31), Ryan Ludwick (TBD), Bill Renna (bench player at 31, retired at 34), and Leon Roberts (retired at 33).
And in case that wasn't all enough, he's blocking the second most talented player who would be on this team, Elijah Dukes.
Willingham has to be cashed in for what we can get now. Based on what Ryan Garko and Matt Holliday fetched in the last couple weeks, teams are ready to give up significant prospects for veteran help.
Baseball Prospectus speculated about a possible Dunn and Johnson for Tim Alderson deal. Presumably, if Willingham was substituted for Johnson, the package would be sweetened still further, but regardless anything withing two counties of that would be a huge win for the Nationals.
This team needs to sell high, buy low, and stockpile talent. Sitting on declining veterans playing for crummy teams until they have no value at all helps nothing.
We missed our chances to turn Nick Johnson into something premium three years ago. Ditto Chad Cordero and Felipe Lopez. Ronnie Belliard, Cristian Guzman, and Dmitri Young all had moments when they might have returned value from a contender. Instead, we rode them to their absolute lowest value and got (or are on our way to getting) nothing for them.
We can't afford to make the same mistake again.
Everyone go out and buy Wilco's new album, "Wilco: The Album." Because a) it's awesome, and b) if enough of you do, maybe they won't sue me.
Anyway, the latest "Natmosphere in your Ear" is up. In Jeff Tweedy's words, it's your sonic shoulder to cry on.
First prize to the person who can explain the photo.
With tonight's win over the Brewers, the Nationals have won five of eight and now have a 31 wins and a .313 winning percentage. To beat the '62 Mets' .250 winning percentage, the Nationals need to win just ten more games over their final 63.
There's no way that even this team will go 9-54. It's finally safe to say that the Scats will not be the worst team in the modern era.
It goes to show just how difficult it is to be this bad this long. All the Nationals have done to blow away the Mets is take two of three from two terrible teams--the Padres and Mets--and then pick up an additional win over the Brewers.
That's it. This little run of barely .500 ball was all it took.
In fact, at this point I think it's safe to say that the Nationals now aren't even the worst team in baseball now.
If you were doing one of those "power rankings" lists, you'd have to put the Nationals at the bottom, just because they are still a solid seven games in the win column behind San Diego.
But to take a snapshot right now, I would say that the Nationals are certainly better than the Padres team we saw in DC last week. You're talking about a team that starts just two guys with an OBP over .327, and one of them is Tony Gwynn, Jr. Their best starting pitcher is either Kevin "don't call me Chick" Correia or "Hanging" Chad Gaudin. Based on run differential, the Nationals should be about three games better over the course of the season.
Kansas City won last night for only their second time in their last 13. They have four automatic outs in their line-up every night in Mike Jacobs, Yuniesky Betancourt, Miguel Olivo, and Willie Bloomquist. Their best hitter is... wait for it... Alberto Callaspo. They hit that guy fifth. Bloomquist bats second. Sheesh. Zach Greinke is wonderful (though merely good lately), and you have to love the SABR-ific Brian Bannister. Luke Hochevar will be very good someday. But their bullpen is no better than ours after Joakim Soria. Based on run differential, we're no worse than the Royals, and we're almost certainly better than they are right now.
I made the case last week that the Scats are better than the Mets, and I think that's probably true, though that's so much a function of injuries that it feels a little unfair.
Oakland is another team that would get an argument, especially since they shipped off Matt Holliday. But they have so many good young pitchers--Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, Dallas Braden, and Andrew Bailey--and such a strong farm system that they'll surely be contending years sooner than the Nationals.
In any case, the Nationals are finally proving that no, they really aren't that bad. Truth is, it's really, really hard to be that bad, and it's pretty amazing that they were that bad this long.
The Giants just sent #9 prospect, pitcher Scott Barnes and a PTBNL to Cleveland for Ryan Garko.
Garko's a bit younger and cheaper than Willingham or Johnson, but at 28 he's not as young as you might think. And he's an inferior player to either of our guys.
This is the kind of deal the Nationals need to be making. If they can do better, great. But if the music stops, and we're still stuck with 4 starters for 3 spots and Johnson set to walk at the end of the year, then it's a big failure for Rizzo.
Dmitri Young has been $10 million of sunk costs since the day Jim Bowden re-signed him, in what was probably the most vain of all JimBo's many, many vanity moves.
Now that even Meat is talking like his career is over, can we please DFA him now?
Just think. We didn't have room for this guy, but we did have room for Dmitri Young. Oy.
Fans of the Nationals know that there are few guys worth cheering for this year on the Washington Nationals than J.D. Martin.
A first round pick of the Indians. Then, injuries. Tommy John surgery. Eight years in the minor leagues. He lost half a dozen ticks on his heater, and had to remake himself as a finesse righty--the rarest and most difficult of transformations.
This off-season, he was a minor league free agent and chose to leave the only organization he'd ever known for a team where he figured he'd have a better shot at the bigs. (Reports that he was dumped by Cleveland are wrong. Martin left.) Then, after all that, at age 26, he battled back and against all odds finally got his chance.
J.D. Martin is Roy Hobbs.
Unfortunately, his bad luck has continued in his first starts in the majors. Of course, he had the good luck of getting the Mets and the Padres, two of the worst hitting teams in baseball.
But Fizzleman for whatever inexplicable reason decides twice to put the horrid double-play combination of Ron Belliard and Cristian Guzman behind him. In the Mets start, he also had Willie Harris at third. It's hard to assemble a worse defensive alignment.
So with those stone gloves behind him, Martin got stuck with five earned runs in the Mets game when he deserved no more than three. Then, after retiring six out of six in the third and fourth, Fizzleman pulls him for a pinch hitter.
Basically, the manager said, "Hey kid, welcome to the big leagues. You pitched pretty good, but here's an 11.25 ERA anyway, just because I hate you."
Last night, Martin had Zimmerman at third at least. It was again Belliard, whose range resembles that of a beach volleyball player, at second and Guzman, who's not much better, at short.
But facing the AAA Padres, Martin did fine. His command wasn't quite right, uncharacteristically walking one and throwing just 17 of 28 pitches for strikes. But he got it done, getting through two innings with no runs and just two hits, one a Belliard gift on a groundball to his left that's an out if Alberto Gonzalez or Anderson Hernandez is out there.
And honestly the other hit he allowed was a catchable ball too. It would have been a great play, but a plus-fielder could have tracked down Everth Cabrera's first-inning double. Give Martin Mark Buerhle's fielding support and he'd be damn near perfect too.
Regardless, the rains came after two scoreless (actually about 30 minutes after two scoreless--the umps weirdly began the rain delay well before any actual rain started to fall, and they could have gotten one or two more in before the real rain started), and Martin's day was over, that grossly inflated ERA still at 7.50.
His groundball rate is way up at 65%. He's given up just one walk against 28 batters faced. No, he's not overpowering anyone, striking out next to no one. But his command and groundball tendencies are more than enough to succeed, if only the guys behind him could catch the ball.
But his BABIP is way up at .386, and just 54.6% of his runners allowed have been stranded. His fielding independent ERA is 3.22, and his tRA* is 4.69 (tRA doesn't distinguish between earned and unearned runs allowed, so subtract 0.40 from that to estimate a deserved ERA.)
It's a small sample size, but whether you're looking at the fancy stats or just watching the games, it's obvious that Martin's ERA is about double what it should be. But that's what happens when you field the defense that Riggleman's putting out there behind J.D.
Next time out, Martin will have a much tougher assignment--the Brewers, who are fourth in the NL in runs scored. His luck (and help) better improve, because he deserves a little good fortune to come his way.
I just finished watching the replay of the first inning from last night on MLB.tv. The box score tells me that there will be three more errors, but that first inning was just pathetic.
Mock fell behind almost everyone. Bard lets a passed ball go by. Mock makes a lazy, terrible throw to first on a sac bunt. Gonzalez didn't cover the bag either. Then Mock doesn't bother to hold the runner and gives away a stolen base.
Hey, I can kind of understand the temptation for this team to mail it in at this stage, but how is it that Garrett Mock of all people isn't mentally focused? Chances are, this is his last shot to start in MLB. Doncha think he should be ready to play?
Geez, even Dibble wasn't ready. He really had to ask how to pronounce the starting pitcher's name on the air? Yeah, it's "Lay-tose," and he happens to be one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. I guess I can't fault him for not knowing how to pronounce "Mozeliak" since I blanked totally on the guy's name on the podcast. But did he just call Kyle Drabek "Ryan Drabek"?
Ugh, and why can't Dunn run hard after the ball? OK so he's not much of an athlete, but you really gotta dog it to let Eliezer Alfonzo get all the way to third base on a ball hit to left field, error or no.
OK, that'll be it for me "live blogging" myself watching the morning-after replay.
Brian and I were chatty today. A bonus hour-long Natmosphere in your Ear on the trade deadline and evaluating Ross Detwiler's stint in the majors.
After watching the Scats take two of three from the New York Mets, I think the answer may be yes, right now, the Mets are worse than the Nationals.
Granted, the Mets have had a ton of injuries--and not like the 2008 Nationals who had guys like Paul Lo Duca and Johnny Estrada get hurt. The Mets have actual good players on the DL.
But forget that for now. Let's look match-ups, position-by-position, NFL-style.
Catcher: Josh Bard v. Brian Schneider
Neither has played much this year, and both are fighting nagging injuries. At first blush, Bard would seem to have the edge based on his 28-point edge in OBP. But that's a mirage--Schneider has him on both walk rate and strikeout rate. When you walk more and get better contact, you're going to get on base more over time. Neither has much power, but Schneider's .167 ISO is a wee bit better. Brian's has an excellent 35% caught-stealing rate, compared to Bard's 24%. Advantage: Mets.
First Base: Nick Johnson v. Daniel Murphy
No contest, Nick in a walk (get it!?). Murphy's OBP is .309, while Johnson's is .415. There's just no overcoming that gap. Both are below-average fielders at this point and neither has much power for a first-bagger. Advantage: Nationals
Second Base: Alberto Gonzalez v. Luis Castillo
Last season, Castillo looked done. A slap-and-run hitter who had lost his wheels and much of his contact ability, not to mention fielding, he was a wildly overpaid, over-the-hill drag on the team. This year, he's had a nice little Indian summer of a year. His K-rate is back down to where it was in his salad days with Florida. His range is Virdo-esque, but he's still better than the rotation of suckitude the Scats send out there. Advantage: Mets.
Third Base: Ryan Zimmerman v. David Wright
Ah, the great debate. I'd take Wright long-term, but Zimmerman has been a bit better this year. Even in a down year, Wright still has the edge at the plate, hitting .316 / .404 / .447 to Zim's .283 / .346 / .465. That 60 points of OBP is huge, but Zimmerman has narrowed the gap offensively. And Zimmerman is so much better with the glove. Even with the throwing errors, his range is just in another world. It's very close, but... Advantage: Nationals.
Shortstop: Cristian Guzman v. Alex Cora
Forget shortstop. Just stop. Oy. Since May 9, Guzman has a .289 OBP. He's been just criminally awful, and now he's moping about batting order. Please. He's not a #2 hitter. He's just #2. But Cora's no better. He has Tony Pena power and poor on-base skills. Neither can catch the ball. Guzman's hot first month still counts, so I'll give him the edge, though you wouldn't have noticed it this week. Lucky for Guzman that the team picked him up after he handed Angel Pagan the triple+E6=inside-the-park HR. Advantage: Nationals.
Left Field: Adam Dunn v. Jeremy Reed/Fernando Tatis
Dunn, by a country mile. Dunn can't catch the ball at all, and I dock him half a point for the Bob Seger, but please. Dunn also is better than Gary Sheffield, though it's closer than you think. Advantage: Nationals.
Center Field: Nyjer Morgan v. Angel Pagan
Morgan is finally showing Nationals fans what a really good fielder in center looks like. You're not hearing much whining about Endy this and Nook that. Because a) Morgan is a far better fielder than those two, a truly special gloveman, and b) Morgan can hit a good bit too. It's time for Fizzleman to dial down the green light every single time Morgan's on base a little, but other than that he's getting on base and changing the game in the field. Pagan has had a nice little run of luck, with a .388 BABIP. But he's 28 and really can't hit. He's average at best in center. Advantage: Nationals
Right Field: Josh Willingham v. Jeff Francoeur
There might have been a debate about Hammer v. Church, but Frenchy's just terrible. He's having a little hot streak, but his OBP for the year is .289. You shouldn't have a starting catcher who does that. Forget right field. Advantage: Nationals
Bench: Willie Harris/Ronnie Belliard/Austin Kearns v. Cory Sullivan/Angel Berroa/Omir Santos
When Sheffield is back, that will push Tatis and Reed to the bench. Will that make the bench any better? Who knows. I'll give it to the Nationals beacuse the only player here who should be actually getting paid to play this game is Harris.
#1 Starting Pitcher: Johan Santana v. John Lannan
We love our Johnny, but he's got a long way to go till he's the best lefty in the NL East. Advantage: Mets.
#2 Starting Pitcher: Jordan Zimmermann v. Mike Pelfrey
Arright, I admit, it's a little home cooking. I started this post before the elbow soreness, and the question posed was whether the Nationals were better than the Mets at that moment, as that series took place. If you think I spin too much positive for the Scats, make sure you tell their PR staff next time you see one of them, cuz they seems to think otherwise. Anyway, Young Hova was on his way to winning rookie of the year. He's got Pelfrey by three-quarters of a run in FIP, and more impressive his K:BB ratio is more than double Pelfrey's. Avantage: Nationals.
#3 Starting Pitcher: Craig Stammen v. Livan Hernandez
Stammen bests Livo in ERA, FIP, groundball rate, and walk rate. Hernandez has a few more Ks, but his K:BB ratio is almost a full K behind. And Craig is so much easier on the eyes. Advantage: Nationals
#4 Starting Pitcher: Garrett Mock v. Oliver PerezThe Loopy Lefty is walking 8.84 per 9. Seriously. That's worse than Daniel Cabrera. And he's a flyball pitcher. Really, this year he's line-drive pitcher, giving up 25.4% liners on balls in play. But Mock? Kid has one start, and he gave up seven runs in 3.1 innings. Granted, three were unearned. Perez actually has him on ERA, 7.68 to 7.71. Call it a push. Advantage: Hitters.
#5 Starting Pitcher: J.D. Martin v. Fernando Nieve
It's tough to evaluate either of these guys, but the baseball card says Nieve has a 2.45 ERA in 36.2 IP. That'll do. Advantage: Mets.
Closer: Mike MacDougal v. Francisco Rodriguez
Moving right along... Advantage: Mets
Set-up Man: Joe Beimel/Sean Burnett v. Pedro Feliciano/Sean Green
Feliciano has been very good, and Green's been no worse than Beimel. Hard to really have a "set up man" on teams that so rarely win. Advantage: Mets
* * *
So in sum, we have 6 positions where the advantage goes to the Mets. That leave 9 for the Scats and one tie.
Does this prove that the Nationals are a better team? No. It's just food for thought. But it's certainly the case that the Nationals won for real. And if Omar Minaya really think's he's making a run, he needs to just stop talking.
Eighteen months ago, Collin Balester was coming off an appearance in the Futures Game and ranked by Baseball America as the #3 prospect in the Nationals' organization, ahead of Jordan Zimmermann and anyone else not named Ross Detwiler.
Since then, he's been passed in the system by Craig Stammen and Zimmermann, and Shairon Martis and J.D. Martin got chances before he did. But the fact of the matter is that Bally Star has as good a shot as anyone of being a starter on a good Nationals team 3-4 years down the road.
His fastball sits at 91-92 and can reach 95. It has has good movement and velocity, and if he can spot it, he can get by without much else. The problem is that he has to have something else, and if he's not commanding his off-speed stuff he tends to rely too much on the fastball.
The curveball is his next best pitch, but it can have a bit of a "hump" in it and be too easily recognized by major league hitters. The change-up is the pitch that will allow him to succeed as a starter. Last year, it was his third-best pitch, but young pitchers often develop their change late. It needs to come in around 81-82 for strikes to work, and too often it's a ball at 85-86.
Last year, it's easy to forget that he was pretty darn good in 14 starts last year, putting up a 4.83 ERA, darn good for a 22-year-old rookie. Unfortunately, there was a 15th start, a disaster in Philly in which he looked like he's started the off-season a week early and gave up 7 earned runs in 1.2 innings, raising that ERA to 5.51.
This year has been a rough one for him. His strikeouts and walks both regressed, he lost his spot in the opening day rotation, and he's been digging his way out since. But his groundball rates have improved, and he's been solid over the last month.
Today, he's back, and if he pitches well he could be here for a while, since Scott Olsen is done (thank god) and Jordan Zimmermann probably won't pitcher for a while.
Don't forget to root for him, because he's still one of the prospects who will determine the near-term future of this team.
Back in April I issued a challenge to all Nationals starters: can you beat Shawn Hill in 2009 VORP?
VORP, or value over replacement player, is a Baseball Prospectus stat the counts the number of runs--or runs prevented, in the case of a pitcher--that a player provides over the course of a season over what the typical AAA fill-in would provide.
Shawn Hill finished the season at 0.2 VORP in 3 starts and 12 innings.
Basically, it's a lock that any pitcher getting regular work should exceed Hill's VORP, because it's a counting stat that adds up based on playing time. Losing the Hill in VORP would be like losing out to Roger Bernadina in RBI. All you have to do is provide anything at all over replacement-level value, and it's a shoo-in.
But Olsen did it. He finished the year at -6.4 VORP.
Incidentally, he's the third Nationals starter to lose the Shawn Hill challenge. Daniel Cabrera ended the year a stunning -14.9 VORP. Ross Detwiler may get another shot, but for now he's at -5.6.
NOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!
I blame you Fizzleman! You broke Kerry Wood! One week, and you broke our Flash Jordan! I don't know what you did you him, but if he's broken, you'll pay!!!
- Update: Based on Chico Harlan's report and listening to the interview with Young Hova on Nats Talk Live, it sounds actually like the team is doing just the right thing here--being "ultra-conservative" with their most valuable (and fragile) asset. Kudos to the Nationals for apparently doing the right thing here.
Boy, he sure is making a case for himself, isn't he?
Yeah, yeah, he was facing a AAA lineup. His fielding independent ERA is 1.30 runs over his actual ERA. Dude's getting it done, and sometimes you just gotta look at the bottom line.
The only thing about Lannan that I can't get over is the strikeout rate (or lack thereof). He's striking out only 9.9% of batters faced, or 3.74 Ks per 9 innings. The only pitcher in baseball with 70 IP or more with a lower rate this year is Shairon Martis, who is getting hammered at AAA right now.
Jamie Moyer has had sustained success with K-rates that low, and maybe Lannan really is the next Moyer. He certainly has the maturity and patience for the "wear you down with 85-mph pitches on the black" approach.
And if he is the next Moyer, rejoice. A really good, extreme-command soft-tossing lefty can do this for years and years and years and years.
We're told that Fizzleman wants to find more playing time for Anderson Hernandez, so he's going to try him out in left field.
What to say about this? Right now, we have probably the second best position player in the organization, Elijah Dukes, toiling in AAA because there isn't playing time for him in DC. And on Sunday, Hernia's debut in left, Riggleman had Willie Harris at second.
The net loss of value in playing Hernandez in left and Harris at second is hard to underestimate. Harris is one of the better defensive left fielders in baseball. His career UZR/150 is 18.9, meaning he's nearly 19 runs better than the average LF over the course of a full season. Meanwhile, he's a -0.9 UZR/150 second baseman. Over the course of a full season, that 19.8 run differential would be worth almost 2 full games.
Hernandez is a +8.9 UZR/150 second baseman. In left? Who knows. Let's be generous and say that despite his total lack of experience in the outfield--he's never played an inning in the outfield in the majors or minors ever--that's he's no worse in left than Adam Dunn, who's a -12.1 UZR/150 LF. Felipe Lopez was a -41.1 LF in his adventurous stint out there for the Scats last year, so I'm probably being overly generous. That's another 21 runs lost, another two games.
Of course, Fizzleman isn't going to play Hernia in left and Harris at second every day. I'm just projecting out the folly over time to show how bad the choice is. And right now, he's got Harris playing mostly in the infield, where his value is mostly nil, and to even consider compounding that by putting a second baseman in left is just nuts.
Do it once as an experiment during a blowout, fine. Let's hope it doesn't happen again.
I haven't listened yet, but I wanted to flag this for y'all who may have missed it, an interview with Nationals tenth overall pick Drew Storen on the podcast "Baseball Honeymoon."
I'm starting to run away with the Natmosphere fantasy league, despite losing my whole starting outfield of Carlos Beltran, Jay Bruce, and Mark DeRosa. Some folks have clearly thrown in the towel, but Dave from Nationals News Network is certainly in striking distance, as are others.
Here's the overall standings:
Shamelessly ripping off an idea from Fangraphs, I am again ranking the Nationals players in order of their trade value. You can check out last year's rankings here.
This is not simply a list of the Nationals players from best to worst. Contract status, age, service time... all these factors go into determining a player's trade market value. I've noted for reference the player's age and contract status as of the start of this season.
And keep in mind, this is not a list of players I think the team should trade, but simply a ranking of players by trade value.
1. Stephen Strasburg (Age: 21; 6 yrs. team control)
No, he hasn't pitched an inning of major league ball. He hasn't even been signed yet, and it wouldn't shock me to see Stan Kasten walk away from Strasburg, with an eye on getting a hard cap on draft bonuses in the next collective bargaining agreement. But the best pitching prospect in a generation, with not a minute of service time accumulated, would be by far the most desirable player in the organization.
2. Ryan Zimmerman (Age 24; 24.6 7-yr. WARP; 5 yrs., $45 mil.)
Zimmerman's 2009 break-out season and contract, which ties him up at a reasonable price through his age 29 season, make him one of the game's premium trade commodities. It's nearly impossible to imagine this franchise trading "The Face, but he's probably the only player that could bring the kind of franchise-changing package that the Orioles got for Erik Bedard.
3. Jordan Zimmermann (Age 23; 6 yrs. team control)
Flash Jordan isn't getting much national play, but he's having a dandy of a rookie season, better than more highly touted prospects like Brett Anderson and David Price. His strikeout to walk ratio now sits at 3.17, better than Josh Beckett, Roy Oswalt, Josh Johnson, Cliff Lee and Johan Santana. His 4.63 ERA isn't bad, but the terrible fielding behind him obscures how very good he's been, and his xFIP is 3.45. With his four-pitch repertoire, clean injury history, and easy transition to the big leagues, he's looking like a front-end starter as soon as, well, pretty much now.
4. Derek Norris (Age 20; 6 yrs. team control)
Some fans might be surprised to see Norris this high, but they shouldn't be. Norris is following up his break-out 2008 with another break-out, hitting .314 / .414 / .584 in Hagerstown at age 20. He's got a ways to go defensively, but he should stick as a catcher. There was a premature report of Norris getting promoted to high-A Potomac earlier this week, and that should still happen at some point this year. At this point, it's no longer crazy to talk about Norris in the same breath as the top catching prospects in the game, guys like Jesus Montero, Buster Posey, and Carlos Santana.5. John Lannan (Age 24; 2 yrs. to arb, 5 yrs. under team control)
Lannan has done more than enough this year to prove that 2008 was no fluke and that he's a legitimate league-average starting pitcher at age 24. He doesn't strike out very many but he keeps his walks down and generates over 50% grounders. If he can stay healthy, he's got the makeup and stuff to be a premium innings-muncher. Team pay millions for guys like this in free agency.
6. Adam Dunn (Age 29; 2 yrs., $20 mil.)
Unlike anyone else listed so far, Dunn has been recently traded, so we have a decent estimate of his trade value. The Reds got Micah Owings, Dallas Buck, a pitcher with a long injury history who became the Reds' Baseball America #21 prospect, and Wilkin Castillo, a 25-year-old defense-first catcher. Arizona was only getting a 44-game rental, but still, that's hardly a passel of premium prospects. Plus, remember that Dunn sat mostly unwanted on the free agent market until only Jim Bowden would take him, at a pay cut of $10 million a year for two years. More and more teams are understanding the value of fielding, and Dunn's glove is bad enough to wipe out much of the value of his bat. He could help an AL team, but then again he's always said he wants to play the field, and he had a reputation in Cincinnati for moping.
7. Elijah Dukes (Age 25; 5 yrs. team control)
If talent and numbers were the only factors, Dukes would be near the Zims at the top of this list. He's still very young, very cheap, and an above-average all-around corner outfielder right now. Of course, with Dukes it's never just about his talent and numbers. The PR that he brings, inability to avoid dumb embarrassments like the late child-support payments, and sour clubhouse reputation all make most teams wary if not totally uninterested. It's still hard to imagine how he could be worth more to the Nationals as a trading chip than he is in the line-up, but Mike Rizzo seems dead set on upgrading the character of the guys on the clubhouse, even if that comes at the expense of the talent level of the roster.
8. Nick Johnson (Age 30; 1 yr., $5.5 mil.)
Nick's short-time contract status and injury history limit his value, and his glove hasn't been what it was in the past, but his bat is still one of the most valuable of any hitter available. The Nationals lost one of their more logical trade partners when Atlanta added Ryan Church and Nate McLouth, but the Giants, Tigers, Angels and Mets are all potential buyers in need of a bat.
9. Josh Willingham (Age 30; 1 yr., $2.95 mil., 3 yrs. team control)
After a slow start, Willingham has elevated his trade value with two red-hot months and a surprisingly smooth transition to right field. He also has two more years of team control after this year, but for the value he brings he can no longer be considered cheap. Like Dunn, he's been traded recently, so we have a pretty good idea of his value. The Marlins were committed to shedding arbitration-eligible players last off-season, but you can be sure if anyone had offered Larry Beinfest more than Jake Smolinski, P.J. Dean, and Emilio Bonifacio for Scott Olsen and Hammer, he would have taken it.
10. Jesus Flores (Age 24; 5 yrs. team control)
I could have listed these last three guys in any order, really. Still, I doubt that Flores is valued as highly across the league as he seems to be by the Nationals. He's an average defensive catcher at best, and while he had a hot start to the season this year, his approach at the plate is still poor, and the odds of him maintaining anything close to that pace are basically nil. He's still pretty young, but he's no longer a baby. The team has done just about everything possible to impede his development since grabbing him in the rule 5 draft before the 2007 season, and the shoulder injury that cost him most of this season surely didn't help any either.
Step one: start Ronnie Belliard at second. Step two: start Cristian Guzman at short. Step three: start Willie Harris at third. Step four: just when he gets comfortable and strings together a couple quick innings, pull him.
Belliard might have turned a double play or at least gotten the lead runner on Schneider's grounder in the second, but Ronnie plays so far back he had no chance. Morgan overthrew the cut-off man on Castillo's base hit in the second, which resulted in another run when Murphy hit a jam-job past Guzman to drive in Castillo. A shortstop with decent range would have at least have knocked that ball down and kept the runner from scoring.
Add in the Pagan swinging bunt hit in the first, and Martin easily could have gotten through the second inning with only one run scored. Of the eight hits off of him, only four of them were really hard-hit balls.
And finally, after getting six outs in six batters in the third and fourth, Martin got pulled by Riggleman for the pleasure of seeing Alberto Gonzalez hit an inning-ending come-backer.
Martin has marginal stuff for major-leaguer, clearly. But damn, can he ever put the ball on the black. The kid deserved better.
Since Olsen's injury sounds pretty serious (who could have guessed??), J.D. should get more chances. Next up is San Diego, and assuming Riggleman gives him an infield that can catch the ball, he should be ok.
A year ago around this time, the Nationals released Felipe Lopez outright. He had become such a drag on the team, that they were happy to pay him to go away.
Yesterday, the Arizona Diamondbacks traded Lopez to the Brewers for two minor leaguers, High-A right-hander Roque Mercedes and Triple-A outfielder Cole Gillespie.
Gillespie, 25, was a third round pick in 2006 and was rated the #9 prospect in the Brewers system by Baseball America. He's an unspectacular but all-around solid player who should become a useful fourth outfielder, at least.
Mercedes, 22, has a 1.08 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 41.6 innings in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League.
Neither of these players are franchise-changers, and this isn't a deal that could have happened by the time Lopez was cut by the Scats, but still it's frustrating to see a team get value in return for a guy we paid to go away a year ago.
Even more galling, the Brewers will be in line to get an extra draft pick if he is offered and declines arbitration this off season, since Lopez is likely to qualify as a type-B free agent.
Put this on the long list of "buy high, sell low" roster mismanagement episodes from the Bowden years.
Today I felt like I was seeing something actually pretty rare in pro sports, a team that has completely, totally giving up. Manny's teams never did that in 2007 or 2008, and though there were days that they seemed to be mailing it in, he had a knack for pulling them back and re-focusing them on the task at hand.
If Jim Riggleman can't do that, if the effort we saw today becomes par for the course over the last 70 games, it's what could make the Nationals just the third team since World War II to lose 75% of its games, something I've always assumed couldn't really happen, but now I think just might.
The collapse started last night. Going into the sixth on Saturday, the Scats were up 4-2. Cubs starter Randy Wells was done for the night. Flash Jordan Zimmermann--the best damn rookie pitcher in baseball--was dealing, with eight Ks, four hits, and just one walk.
At that moment, the Nationals had a 78% chance of winning. If there was ever a game this team was in line to win, this was it. But they somehow found a way to lose.
Derrick Lee hit a flyball to left field that would have been caught by any remotely average outfielder. Dunn, who I'll politely say could have run harder, couldn't get there and the ball fell in for a ground-rule double. Then Aramis Ramirez hit a grounder at Willie Harris, who, looking like he was more worried about the family jewels than making the play, basically fell over.
So instead of two outs and no one on, and an 83.6% win expectancy, it was no outs, runners on second and third, and a 60.2% WE.
Zimmermann blew away Milton Bradley, but on his 100th pitch, after the inning should have been over, Alfonso Soriano poked a game-tying homer to the opposite field. Three-and-a-half innings and eight stranded Nationals later, Zimmermann, completely hung out to dry by his "teammates," was handed one of the least deserving losses you'll ever see a pitcher get.
Today, Garrett Mock and the Nationals were game for the first three innings. The Cubs were getting some good swings, but Mock rung up three strikeouts in the second and got a couple dandy double-plays turned by Ryan Zimmerman, especially this one in the first.
But at the first sign of adversity, the team rolled over like Belgium in wartime.
Alberto Gonzalez's lazy footwork caused an error that should have been the second out of the inning. You know what followed. Homer, single, wild pitch, walk, single, wild pitch, single, pitching change, sac fly, single, single, single, frozen rope at right at Dunn for the third merciful out.
Later, we got to see Ronnie Belliard dogging it on the base paths (sliding is for sissies), a throwing error by Nyjer Morgan, an 0-for-5 with RISP, and a complete inability to mount anything resembling a comeback against Kevin Hart, a guy who was once traded for Freddie Bynum, and the Cubs' merry band of mop-up men.
In the end, it was 11-3, and it could have been worse. Remember, Lou Piniella rested two of his team's best hitters, Aramis Ramirez and Milton Bradley.
We'll see if the team can mount any kind of resistance to the Mets this week. Outside of David Wright, New York is a AAA team right now, with an all-star team's worth of players on their DL. If they don't, the 2003 Detroit Tigers may get some company.
Chico Harlan says J.D. Martin will get the start tomorrow in place of mercifully injured Scott Olsen.
A little pat on the back for myself for writing this back in December the day after Martin was signed:
He's a former #1 pick of the Indians who had Tommy John surgery in 2005. He finally had a fully healthy season in 2008 and posted a 2.49 ERA in 79.2 IP in AA and a 1.80 ERA in 10 IP at AAA. Even prettier were his 4:1 strikeout to walk ratios.
After being rumored as a potential rule 5 pick, he signed as a free agent with the Nationals because, he said, we give him the best chance to make it to the bigs. His best pitches are a curve and a cutter. He also throws a sinker and a four-seamer. His fastball sits in the 89-90 range. He'll be 26 this season and should be considered a dark horse candidate for the rotation or bullpen.
If you want to read more about him, check out the excellent Indians Prospect Insider blog.
FJB bottom-line: two thumbs up.
That K:BB ratio this season has improved to a fabulous 6.30. He's got a 2.66 ERA, which translates to a major-league equivalent of 3.42.
He's been wicked lucky on his home runs per flyball rate, which at 3.5% is about one-third what it will ultimately regress to. And his BABIP against sits at .277, which is about 30 points below what he should expect over time. On the other hand, he's stranded only 66% of runners, which is about 10-15 points lowe than it should be.
Add up all that good and bad luck, and he deserves an ERA around 3.40 at Syracuse, according to tRA*. That would translate to about 4.50 in the big leagues. That's league-average, and worth consideration for a spot in the rotation regardless of injuries.
And although you might not have heard of him, this is not a totally unpredicted development. PECOTA, historically the most accurate projection system for pitchers, pegged him at 3.90 in 30 innings this year.
Of course all this statistical projection doesn't mean squat if he can't make it happen when facing actual major league hitters. And there are plenty of guys out there who can get out AAA hitters but lack the raw stuff to do it at the next level.
Still, J.D. Martin is a great story, and it'll be a lot more fun to find out if he can do it than to gather more evidence that Scott Olsen can't.
I'll be out at the park today. I expect Cubs fans to be getting a little smug about their barely .500 team going for the sweep, so let me get this out of my system now.
One World Series to none over the last century. And we didn't even exist for 30 years of that time. Till that changes, as far as I'm concerned we have bragging rights.
And the only curse your team has is incredibly poor management and player development for decades on end.
And have fun with Soriano when he's an unplayable albatross earning $18 million at age 38.
And Harry Caray was a clown. So is Santo (who also does not belong in the Hall of Fame, not by a long shot).
And Moises Alou wasn't going to catch that ball anyway. And even if he had, it's not Bartman's fault that the team folded like a house of cards after.
And Wrigley Field is a great place to see a game, if you don't mind a stadium full of yuppies talking on their Blackberries and not watching the game.
And at least we know there's nothing lovable about losing.
Last night Jim Riggleman announced that Scott Olsen will miss his next start with soreness in his latissimus dorsi, the large muscle that runs behind your shoulder blade and down the side of your torso.
This should be a no-brainer. A sore lat is in itself not a terrible injury. Assuming there isn't some other hidden injury, Olsen should be able rest and get back to full strength in a matter of weeks.
But trying to pitch through a mild lat problem can put additional strain on other parts of the shoulder and lead to much more serious injuries.
Case in point: Chad Cordero. He started with a lat strain, pitched through it, and ended up with one of the worst injuries a pitcher can have: a torn labrum. These "cascading" injuries are almost always preventable.
I've had worries about the Nationals' injury prevention this season. Josh Bard clearly shouldn't be playing. Nick Johnson ought to be getting more rest than he is. We keep hearing about how "old school" new pitching coach Steve McCatty is. And I can't imagine how Willie Harris was allowed to take the field without an athletic cup.
New trainer Lee Kuntz is making the right decision here. Hopefully it's the start of a slightly more cautious trend. They haven't gotten bitten yet, but they will if they take risks like this too often.
About a year ago at this time, fresh off his unlikely all-star appearance, Cristian Guzman got a two-year, $16 million contract extension from Jim Bowden. At the time, it was arguably a good move, if nothing else because the team had no other remotely replacement level options anywhere in the organization.
There were reasons to worry, however, that like Dmitri Young, Austin Kearns and Ron Belliard, Bowden was giving Guzman an overpriced contract at the peak of his value, and that the Nationals would be stuck with a relatively high-priced, declining player.
Those worries are proving well-founded. Because he had such a hot start, a lot of people haven't noticed that for the last two months, Cristian Guzman has been one of the worst offensive players in baseball. Shoot, he even got an indefensible spot on the final round all-star ballot.
On May 9, his OBP sat at .392, and his SLG was .519. Since May 9, his on-base percentage is .290, and his slugging percentage is .363.
He's always been a relentless hacker, but this season his BB-rate has fallen from a career 4.7% to a nearly unwalkable 2.2%. Even more worrisome, his strikeout rate has risen from 9.8% last season to 14.6% this year. When your game is to put the ball in play and pray to the BABIP gods for good luck, that can be the difference between sustainably adequate and sub-replacement.
And guess what, as bad as he's been, he's been incredibly lucky. Despite the two month-long slump, he's still floating on the second-highest BABIP of his career at .345. But he's also 0.2 percentage points away from the lowest line-drive rate of his career at 16.7%. Guess which of these numbers isn't going to stay the same. Last year, he had a career-best line-drive rate of 22.5%, and all that got him was a BABIP of .339.
Meanwhile, his defense is regressing fast, not a shocking development for a 31-year-old shortstop who was never a fielding ace to begin with. On the year, he's on pace to allow 6.7 runs more than the average shortstop, according to UZR.
Taken together, even with his fast start, he's been just a half win better than replacement for the season, not nearly enough to justify his $8 million salary. Of 19 batting title-qualified shortstops, he ranks 16th in overall value, even staring up at our old friend Brendan Harris.
Guzman has had streaky tendencies, and it's possible he'll have a hot month to work his way back near average. But it's more likely that he's going to get even worse. In that case, we could end up paying $16 million to watch the worst starting shortstop in baseball for two seasons.
Fan confidence shot up over 50% for the second highest score since the tracking poll began in December. Only after the Dunn signing were we more upbeat. Why? You tell me.
A new poll has been posted and will be live till August 15.
Two errors? Four hits? Two wild pitches? Morgan picked off first base down two with two outs in the eighth inning with the heart of the order due up??? Riggleman's a bum! Booo!!!!
On the podcast yesterday, I mentioned that Jim Riggleman's most lasting managerial legacy may be that he's the manager who broke Kerry Wood. And his overuse of his phenom 20-year-old in 1997 is just one of a number of young pitchers Riggleman used and abused as manager of the Cubs and Padres.
Although these sins were committed over a decade ago, it's a real worry for the Nationals, when job one (and two, three, four and five) in DC is to smooth the transition of young pitchers like Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg to the major leagues.
Let's have a closer look at the trail of tears:
You know this tale of woe. Wood was called up at age 20. He won the rookie of the year with a 3.40 ERA and 12.6 Ks per 9. He also walked 4.6 per 9 and was therefore prone to high pitch counts. Riggleman didn't care. He had Wood throw 166.2 innings, including pitch counts of 133, 129, 123, 123, 122 (twice), and 121 (twice). After the season, Wood had Tommy John surgery, missed two full seasons, and has never become the guy he might have been.
At least in this case, however, he broke the pitcher during a playoff race.
Singed as an amateur free agent from Venezuela at age 16, Gonzalez was never the A-level prospect that Wood was, but he was more highly touted than anyone in the Nationals system not named Zimmermann.
In 1996, at age 21, he threw 97 innings at AA Orlando with a 3.48 ERA, 7.9 per 9 K-rate, and 2.6 per 9 BB-rate. The next year, he got the bump to AAA Iowa and threw 62 innings with a 3.49 ERA, 8.40 per 9 K-rate, and 3.0 per 9 BB-rate. That earned him a mid-season call-up. Riggleman, managing a team that would finish the year with 94 losses, rode Gonzalez for another 144 innings, a total of 206 for the year, a grotesque 113-inning jump from the previous season.
These days, it's thought that any innings jump over 30 brings elevated risk. But even in the dark old days of the 1990s, this was downright reckless.
Gonzalez managed a 4.25 ERA that rookie season and got some votes for rookie of the year. But as is typically the case, the price was paid the next year, when his ERA jumped more than a run. Three surgeries followed and he didn't pitch again in the big leagues till 2003.
Looking back at Riggleman's time in San Diego, Hamilton stands out as the top pitching prospect he handled there. An eighth-overall pick out of Georgia Southern who threw a 100-mph fastball, Hamilton was the top prospect in the Padres' system when Riggleman was hired in 1992. In 1993 at age 22, he threw 149 innings across three levels with a 4.11 ERA. In 1994, he broke through, putting up a 2.73 ERA in 59.1 innings at AAA Las Vegas (in an extreme hitters' league).
Hamilton was called up that year and went on to pitch another 108.2 innings for Riggleman. Over the next two seasons, Hamilton threw 416 innings, all before his 26th birthday. He never had the kind of spectacular break down that Wood or Gonzalez had, but his walk rate rose from a stellar 2.5 per 9 in 1995 to 3.5 per 9 in 1996, a tell-tale sign of overuse. Eventually it would elevate to 4.2 per 9 in 1998, and he missed time in between with rotator cuff inflammation. His ERA spiked all the way to 6.52 in 1999 after being traded to Toronto, and he never had the career many projected for him.
# # #
Of course, pitchers get hurt a lot, and it's possible that Wood, Gonzalez, and Hamilton would have had the same fate even if they'd been handled with kid gloves. We can't know. But these are three cautionary tales that raise flags.
Looking at Riggleman's interim stint in Seattle last year, did he show signs of learning lessons? Maybe.
He had three pitchers that could be considered young, valuable arms: Felix Hernandez, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and Brandon Morrow. None of them had the kind of big innings jumps that we saw from Riggleman in Chicago, but the pitch counts weren't what you'd call "cautious."
Morrow, who missed time earlier that season with shoulder soreness and had bounced from the bullpen to the rotation, had pitch counts of 113 and 114 in consecutive starts in September. One of those was a 5-inning, 6-earned run affair that almost surely should have been cut short sooner. Rowland-Smith four times threw more than 100 pitches, the max being 116. King Felix is a bit of a different case, given that he's already pitched two full seasons before age 22. He threw four games over 110 pitches, never more than 120.
So that's not exactly a record of extreme pitcher abuse. I think it's fair to say Riggleman, like the rest of MLB, has learned something about handling young pitchers over the years. Still, it's something that bears watching if this team really considers him a candidate for the future.
Brian Oliver from Nationals Farm Authority and I discuss the handling of the Acta firing and the team's choice of Jim Riggleman to replace Manny.
Check it out here.
My position on Manny Acta's future with the Nationals has been clearly ambivalent and concretely muddy for a long time.
I think Manny's shown the ability to be an excellent motivator, which in my view is 80% or more of a manager's job. I think his in-game strategy has been a mixed bag--I don't like the bullpen management, but I do like his aversion to one-run strategies and aggressive bench usage.
I think the "temperament" issue is vastly overblown. As a big admirer of Phil Jackson, I agree that it's just totally unnecessary to throw temper-tantrums to gain players' respect.
Bottom line, I think Manny's the victim of a four years of horrendous player development and roster management under Jim Bowden. No manager could have avoided last place with the players he was given.
Still, after losing 163 games since Opening Day 2008, I just can't imagine that that Manny hadn't lost his players. And it showed. For the first time in three seasons, the team has seemed mentally checked out.
Just in the last week, even Adam Dunn, purported to be one of the veteran leaders on the team, has signed up for the Anderson Hernandez school of mental focus. He costing his team a run and maybe a win in their 1-0 defeat last week in Colorado by dogging it on a double that should have been a triple and then getting picked off. Then he trotted after a flyball that an average outfielder would have caught, allowing it to drop on the warning track and gifting Michael Bourn a triple. And then this weekend Dunn again cost his team a run by missing second base trying to score on a Josh Willingham double.
I don't mean to single out Dunn. My point is just that if even veterans with years of experience on losing teams are checking out, Manny doesn't have a chance. There's nothing left to do but install new leadership and start over.
It may not be all or even mostly Manny's fault. It's possible that he lasted longer than anyone else would have. But still, they needed to try to push the reset button. It probably won't be the last time they have to do so.
Good luck to Acta in the future. I suspect he'll be back in Nationals Park with an opposing team pretty soon and winning a lot more often.
Given their record, it's pretty amazing how many players could make a reasonable claim at an all-star appearance for the Nationals this season.
Ryan Zimmerman is the choice, which is appropriate given that his hitting and fielding together make him as valuable as any thirdbaseman in the NL, even if fielding doesn't usually count in all-star selections.
Adam Dunn's 23 homers puts him one back of Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Reynolds for second place in the NL.
And in a terrible field of NL shortstops, MLB thought Cristian Guzman deserved consideration, despite the fact that since the first month of the season his OBP is below .300, and he's a poor fielder.
The Nationals have two other guys who might have been the best choices of all, had they gotten a full first half's worth of playing time: Jesus Flores and Josh Willingham.
Flores only played in 26 games, about one-third what most starting catchers have done by now. But before he went down with a stress fracture in his right shoulder he had a "slash line" of .311 / .382 / .522, far-and-away better than any catcher in the NL not named Brian McCann.
McCann's hitting .298 / .375 / .487. After that, you're looking at Chris Iannetta at .232 / .347 / .463 or John Baker at .258 / .332 / .421.
With his exceptional defense, Yadier Molina is an appropriate pick even while hitting .280 / .350 / .384. And with a BABIP of .400, Flores surely would have cooled off. But he would have had to slump terribly to fall out of the top three catchers in the NL.
Willingham's first half pace has been even more all-star worthy. His .303 / .418 / .580 line has been as good as any outfielder in baseball. Those are MVP rates. He's getting on base more but hitting for less power than Raul Ibanez at .314 / .372 / .659. Everyone else is a notch below.
And unlike Flores, there isn't much smoke-and-mirrors here. Willingham's walk rates and strikeout rates are better than ever, and his ISO power has seen a 60-point jump from his career best.
And the truth is that Willingham has actually played a pretty solid right field. He seems to be benefiting quite a bit from Nyjer Morgan's presence--his range allows Hammer to shade to the line, and he's making running catches in foul territory that he simply would never have made with Dukes or Milledge in center.
Mike MacDougal has held onto the closer's role for the Nationals longer than just about anyone this season, and at first glance, he seems adequate.
MacDougal has five saves and hasn't blown one yet. His ERA is 2.65. What's not to like?
The fact of the matter is that MacDougal is performing a lot more like the guy who was released by the White Sox with an ERA over 12 than what you'd think based on that quick glance at the bottom line outcomes to date.
The key measurables that are within a pitcher's control are strikeout rate, walk rate, and groundball rate. Pitchers who do well in those three categories can be expected to enjoy sustained success over time. You don't have to excel in all three, but your Ks and BBs can't be awful, and you can only get away with a low groundball rate if your strikeout rate is exceptionally high.
These rates are controllable and usually consistent enough that even with a small sample size, you can get a pretty good idea of a pitcher's true performance level.
In 17 innings for Washington, MacDougal has posted an 8.9% strikeout rate. Usually you look for at least 25% for a closer (the best closers push 40%), and even among starting pitchers anything below 11-12% is problematic.
Even more concerning is that MacDougal's walk rate is a Blassian 17.7%. An average walk rate is usually around 8%, and even for pitchers with high K-rates, anything in double-digits is a red flag. MacDougal's walk rate is unsustainable for a mop-up man. Forget about closing.
MacDougal's always had sky-high groundball rates, a product of the heavy sinking action on his fastball. This year is no different. He's getting nearly twice as many groundballs as flyballs, and that means he's just very rarely going to give up a homer. Even if you're putting a lot of guys on base, if you never give up a gopherball, your ERA will be ok.
But MacDougal isn't just putting a lot of guys on base. He's walking the park. His WHIP is over 1.7 since joining the Scats, and that's despite a BABIP allowed of just .273. While groundball pitchers rarely give up homers, they tend to allow more hits on balls in play. An average BABIP is usually around .310, so for a pitcher with a groundball rate around 60% to have a BABIP of .273 is just plain luck. Really, really, really good luck.
So if I was Rizzo, I'd be looking to ease MacDougal out of the closer role as soon as possible, despite the 5 for 5 save rate. There isn't a Jonathan Broxton available to put in the closer role (obviously). Sean Burnett is probably he next guy who would get a shot.
But regardless, based on the controllables, Mike MacDougal is probably the worst pitcher in the Nationals bullpen right now. He's a ticking time bomb waiting to explode and needs to be moved out of the closer's role before he starts costing the team games.
Earlier this week, Mike Rizzo said flatly that "We are not trading Adam Dunn. That's as definitive as I can be."
Now, it's possible that this is a bluff of some kind to drive up the asking prices for Dunn, but I highly doubt it. A statement like won't generate better offers. It will make the phone stop ringing altogether.
So assuming that Dunn really is untouchable, the question is: why?
Dunn is signed through next year at $10 million a year. It's clear that the Nationals aren't winning anything next year. Even if everything breaks just right and they go sign a top-tier starter like John Lackey and conjure up a solid bullpen, they still won't have enough pitching to reach .500, much less contend.
This is a rebuilding team that still needs to put a it's primary focus on stockpiling young talent. Dunn is one of a few players on the team that could fetch a decent package of prospects. The team is talking as if Dunn might be around to play for a contender, but at 29 he's past his peak and probably isn't the kind of guy who will age real well.
The list of potential suitors is long. The Tigers, White Sox, Angels, Mets, Cubs, and Giants are all contenders who could all use Dunn's bat. He'd be especially valuable for the Tigers or Angels, who could play him at DH.
Last year, Arizona gave up Micah Owings and a couple C-level prospects (guys who project as major league back-ups, maybe less). What might a team give up for a season-and-a-half of Big Donkey?
Plus, if the team is serious about upgrading the defense (and they have to be), they can't carry Dunn, Josh Willingham, and Cristian Guzman. One, some, or all those guys have to go.
I'm not saying Dunn should be auctioned off to whoever shows up, but I don't see why he'd be regarded as untouchable.
My latest chat with NFA Brian is up over at Natmosphere in your Ear. This week we discuss the all-star game selections, the Milledge/Hanrahan trade, the Dukes demotion, and our weekly heroes, goats, and signs of hope.
Sorry, but for the sake of the integrity of the game, I cannot vote for Cristian Guzman for the all-star game.
It's not that he's such a terrible choice (he is a terrible choice, but that's not what I'm worked up about), it's that if neither Matt Kemp nor Shane Victorino is voted in, the National League will have no center-fielders whatsoever.
The MLB all-star game has always been kind of like a fantasy baseball draft, where defense doesn't count at all. And the convoluted process and little league participation rules have undermined the quality of play at the all-star game for years.
But it's one thing to have a guy who doesn't really deserve to be on the team like Andrew Bailey or Adam Jones, but it's something else altogether to play an entire game with an outfield that would make Dunn/Dukes/Willingham look like a gold glove trio.
Carlos Beltran was voted in by the fans, but presumably he won't play since he's been out since June 22 with a bruised knee.
That means, unless Kemp or Victorino is voted in, the starting outfield for the NL will feature either Ryan Braun or Raul Ibanez in right field and one of these non-CFs in center: Justin Upton, Hunter Pence, or Brad Hawpe.
And, of course, the all-star game isn't meaningless. Home field advantage in the World Series is on the line.
Now, I can't quite urge you to vote for a Phillie, and Victorino doesn't really deserve to go any more than Guzman does. But Matt Kemp is a perfectly solid choice. He's an above average fielder, and he's hitting .305 / .373 / .521 for the NL's best team.
So for the good of the game, don't vote Guzman. Vote Kemp.
Brian and I will discuss on the podcast who we think should represent the Nationals in the all-star game, but here are my picks for who should represent the NL and AL overall.
First, my criteria. I don't like the rule that every team should get one player, so I'm ignoring it. I basically think that we should see the best players in baseball, and that means a player who's having a hot first half but playing over his head isn't usually going to make my list. Fielding doesn't usually matter in all-star selections, but I think it should, so I'm counting it the same as I would if I was constructing a real team. I try not to punish guys for missing time due to injury or other factors outside their control. Outfielders shouldn't play out of position. I don't believe in the DH. Finally, since starting pitchers are much more valuable than relievers, I tend to only choose the most elite three or so closers rather than the half-dozen that usually are represented.
With that, here's my NL squad, beginning with the starters:
C: Brian McCann
1B: Albert Pujols
2B: Chase Utley
3B: Pablo Sandoval
SS: Hanley Ramirez
LF: Manny Ramirez
CF: Carlos Beltrano
RF: Justin Upton
SP: Dan Haren
Bullpen:
Tim Lincecum
Javier Vazquez
Chris Carpenter
Josh Johnson
Yovani Gallardo
Chad Billingsley
Adam Wainwright
Johan Santana
Ted Lilly
Jonathan Broxton
Heath Bell
Francisco Rodriguez
Bench:
Yadier Molina
Geovany Soto
Adrian Gonzalez
Prince Fielder
Freddy Sanchez
Brandon Phillips
Miguel Tejada
David Wright
Ryan Zimmerman
Raul Ibanez
Matt Kemp
Ryan Braun
Jayson Wertha
And the AL starting nine:
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Kevin Youkilis
2B: Aaron Hill
3B: Evan Longoria
SS: Jason Bartlett
LF: Carl Crawford
CF: Torii Hunter
RF: Ichiro Suzuki
SP: Zach Greinke
Bullpen:
Roy Halladay
Justin Verlander
Felix Hernandez
Jon Lester
Cliff Lee
Edwin Jackson
Josh Beckett
CC Sabathia
John Danks
Jonathan Papelbon
Mariano Rivera
Joe Nathan
Bench:
Victor Martinez
Mike Napoli
Justin Morneau
Miguel Cabrera
Asdrubal Cabrera
Alex Rodriguez
Brandon Inge
Nelson Cruz
Ben Zobrist
Johnny Damon
Franklin Gutierrez
Ian Kinsler
o=injured, will not participate
a=injury replacement
The weather was great. It was the 4th of July. For just the fifth time in 43 chances this season, the Nationals came from behind after trailing heading into the eighth inning and won the game. Adam Dunn hit his 300th home run and got a curtain call from the fans. John Lannan delivered yet another solid start, going eight and allowing just three runs. We got to see Tommy Hanson, one of the best young pitchers in the game. Ryan Zimmerman delivered the game-winning hit. The Nationals didn't commit a single error. Mike McDougal was shaky, and if he keeps pitching like that he'll blow more than he saves, but he got the job done. I got to see three good defensive outfielders on the field at the same time. And to top it off... Jesus Colome is DFA-ed and Jason Bergmann is coming back!
Hooray for baseball!
With the mid-point of the season approaching, now seems like a good time to check in on my pre-season predictions.
Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Lastings Milledge, Jason Bergmann, and Austin Kearns will be better in 2009 than they were in 2008.
Well... I got the first two right. If you factor in Bergmann's 0.97 ERA at Syracuse I think you'd actually have to say he's been better, but this isn't what I had in mind. Who knows what Milledge would be doing right now if he'd stayed in DC and stayed healthy. As for Kearns, who knew he could be worse?
Cristian Guzman, John Lannan, Joe Beimel, Joel Hanrahan, Anderson Hernandez, Ronnie Belliard, and Scott Olsen will be worse.
One could make a case for Lannan being improved, but his strikeout rate and groundball rate are both down. So are his walks, but he really isn't improved at all. The rest of these guys I way, way too right about.
Ryan Zimmerman will finally take the next step forward, finishing the season with a slash line over .280 / .350 / .480. But he will not make the all-star team.
He's currently at .296 / .369 / .486. The all-star game was seeming like a lock a few weeks ago, but it's not hard to imagine Dunn getting it and the NL team taking David Wright, Chipper Jones, Mark Reynolds, or even Pablo Sandoval ahead of Zimm.
Josh Bard will get more than one-third of the starts at catcher.
If I remember right I was going to predict that he'd get more starts than any other catcher on the team, figuring he'd pass Wil Nieves and that there was a decent chance that Flores would either need to be sent down or get hurt. But I wimped out. Seems like I should have had the nerve to go with my first instinct.
Nationals Park will emerge as a very slight hitters park as measured by park factor.
Sample size is still too small to be conclusive, but so far I've been wrong here. I thought the left-handed power of Dunn would expose the short-porch in right, but I didn't account for the fact that Dunn's homers go about 900 feet.
The Nationals will draw fewer than two million fans.
This was a cheapy. They're at 871,373, which puts them on pace for 1.85 million.
Jason Bergmann will have a better ERA than any of the Nationals' top five starters by games started.
Can I say I meant at Syracuse?
Mike Rizzo will find room for Alberto Gonzalez on the 25-man roster by the end of May at the latest.
Bingo.
Cristian Guzman, Wily Mo Pena, Dmitri Young, and Ron Belliard will be former Nationals by the end of the season.
Pena's gone, and it's not hard to imagine Belliard getting released soon. Young I suppose will hang on at this point. I've been hoping for a Guzman trade for more than a year, but his contract and declining range mean we're probably stuck with him.
Austin Kearns will have a solid bounce-back season and find himself a starting job with another team by opening day 2010.
Nevermind.
Adam Dunn's streak of 40-HR seasons will end.
Did I say this?
Jordan Zimmermann's ERA will be below the 2008 starting pitcher NL average of 4.40.
For a rookie, this is a bigger achievement than it may seem. He's currently at 4.65, but I still like his chances to make it.
Despite recent additions, the bullpen will be in the bottom third in the NL by ERA.
I can't say I expected this.
Nationals starting pitchers will throw the fewest innings of any team in the NL.
At 5.6 innings per start, we're actually a bit ahead of last-place San Diego, who's at 5.5, and three other teams are tied with us at 5.6.
Scott Olsen will not finish the year in the Nationals rotation.
The next month will tell the tale.
The Nationals' top five starting pitchers by IP as a starter will include at least one pitcher not currently with the organization.
I figured they'd have to go to the scrap heap when Cabrera and Olsen flamed out, but due to the success of the young arms, it's looking like this won't be necessary.
Strasburg will be the pick, and he will sign.
I've jinxed it, clearly.
Aaron Crow will get the $4.4 million he wanted last year.
Not gonna happen.
Shawn Hill will finish the season with more win shares than the Nationals' fifth starter.
Hardball Times doesn't update Win Shares mid-season, but looking at a similar stat, wins above replacement, he's currently at +0.1. Cabrera finished at -0.3, and Olsen's at 0.0. Remember, WAR and WS are counting stats--getting beat by an injured player in this category is no different than getting beat in HR or RBI.
Nick Johnson will get 500 at bats and finish the season with an OPS+ over 140.
I was a little overzealous here. His OPS+ is currently 125, and 140 would require quite a second half. Still, it's hard to believe so many fans were ready to kick him to the curb six months ago.
Mike Rizzo will lose the "acting" and be named the new Nationals GM.
We'll see.
Manny Acta will get another year.
Looks more likely now than it did two weeks ago.
NL playoff teams: Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, D'Backs.
I could still be right on three of four.
AL playoff teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels.
Tigers make me look smart. Angels are right there. I could get all these right.
The Dodgers will beat the Yankees in the Series.
We'll see.
The Nationals record will be 74-88, their fourth last place finish in five years.
They'd have to go 53-37 the rest of the way to make this mark.
